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Börsipäev 20 juuli

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  • USA turud tegid eile korraliku põrke, kui S&P 500 näitas 1,6%-lise tõusu näol suurimat hüpet alates märtsist. Sentimendile mõjusid soodsalt USA oodatust parem kinnisvarastatistika ning uudised, et vabariiklased ja demokraadid on riigieelarve defitsiidi vähendamise osas jõudmas kokkuleppe saavutamisele lähemale, mis omakorda suurendab võlalimiidi tõstmise tõenäosust enne kriitilist kuupäeva.

    Täiendavat optimismi on Aasia sessiooni süstinud Apple’i majandustulemused, mis hoiavad Nasdaqi futuure hetkel 0,7% plusspoolel. S&P 500 ja Dow Jones kauplevad praegusel varasel tunnil 0,2% rohelises ja Euroopa on avanemas 0,5-0,8% kõrgemal võrreldes eilse sulgumisega.
  • Peale Inglismaa keskpanga möödunud kohtumise protokolli (kl 11.30) ja USA olemasolevate majade müüginumbri avaldamise (kl 17.00) ei ole makrokalendril täna rohkemat pakkuda, mistõttu võivad turuosalised rohkem jälgida ELi riigijuhtide sõnavõtte ja kommentaare enne homset kohtumist ning lisaks täiendavaid uudiseid USA võlalimiidi teemal. Majandustulemustega on enne turgu tulemas muuhulgas Abott Labs, Altria, Blackrock, Johnson Controls, United Tech ja pärast turgu American Express, eBay, Intel, Qualcomm, Select Comfort.
  • Apple'i aktsia käis järelturul ära 405 dollaril ja sellega on ettevõte jõudnud jälle lähemale ahvatlevale tiitlile, mis klassifitseeriks tehnoloogifirmat turukapitalisatsioonilt maailma suurimaks. Hetkel on selleks Exxon Mobil market capiga 412 miljardit dollarit. Bespoke'i kohaselt oleks antud tasemeni jõudmiseks Apple'l vaja 446 dollarilist aktsiahinda ehk tasemelt 405 USD-i +10%, kui eeldada XOM aktsia samaks jäämist.
  • Tänane Business Insider kirjutab, et Google`i uus sotsiaalplatvorm Google+ on väga kiirelt kasutajaid kogumas, sest Microsofti kaasasutaja Paul Alleni sõnul peaks Google+ kasutajate arv jõudma täna 18 miljonini.
    Vähem kui nädal tagasi teatas Google oma kvartalitulemustes, et Google+-l on 10 miljonit kasutajat ja seega on 8 miljonit uut kasutajat lisandunud väga lühikese aja jooksul.
    Muidugi ei kujuta Google+ hetkel Facebookile veel olulist ohtu, kuna FB-l on 750 miljonit kasutajat, aga kui Google`i kasutajate arv jätkab kasvu sama kiires tempos, siis aasta lõpus võib jõudude vahekord päris huvitavaks juba minna.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MANH +7.7%, CTAS +7.2%, VMW +6.6%, AAPL +5.9%, INFN +5%, ISRG +4.3%, CSX +3.2%, TXT +3.1%, ABT +2.5%, AMR +2.4%, .

    M&A news: NLC +30.4% (Ecolab confirms merger with Nalco; Ecolab to pay ~$5.4 billion, valuing Nalco stock at $38.80/share), .

    Select financial related names showing strength: ING +3.3%, STD +3.2%, BCS +3.2%, BBVA +2.9%, DB +2.9%, NBG +2.4%, UBS +2.4%, CS +2.3%, RBS +2.1%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: BBL +2.1%, BHP +1.8%, HMY +1.9%, RIO +1.7%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SD +3.2%, BP +2.5%, E +1.4%, TOT +1.3%, RDS.A +0.7%, SU +0.4%, .

    Some names getting picked up following AAPL results: LOGI +4.4%, CRUS +4.1%, OVTI +3%, ARMH +2.8% SWKS +2.2%,

    Other news: DVAX +9.2% (Phase 3 Demonstrates Superiority and Safety of HEPLISAVvs. Engerix-B), HEB +8.1% (received FDA authorization to proceed with the initiation of a new clinical trial of intranasal Ampligen used in conjunction with commercially approved seasonal influenza vaccine), EK +6.1% (Kodak exploring strategic alternatives for fundamental digital imaging patent portfolios), BTU +0.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: GPRO +1.5% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray, upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird), MON +0.9% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RVBD -23.9%, CTRN -21.7%, FTNT -17.3%, CMG -2.6%, YHOO -1.6%, ALTR -1.3%.

    M&A news: ECL -2.9% (Ecolab confirms merger with Nalco; Ecolab to pay ~$5.4 billion, valuing Nalco stock at $38.80/share)

    Some names under pressure following RVBD and FTNT results:
    FFIV -4.8%, ARUN -2.7%, APKT -2.5%.

    Other news: DVAX -8.2% (reports Phase 3 HEPLISAV vs. Engerix-B data), CEO -3.8% (CNOOC enters into arrangement agreement to acquire Canadian Oil Sands Producer OPTI for ~$2.1 bln, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura), GOV -2.2% (announces proposed public offering of 5,000,000 common shares), NEWN -1.8% (modestly pulling back following yesterday's 60%+ jump).

    Analyst comments: AIXG -4.1% (attributed to estimate cut at Citigroup), EE -1.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies).
  • Goldman Sachs lisab Monsato (MON)-i täna oma Conviction List nimekirja ja tõstab hinnasihi $ 96,00 peale.

    We are adding Monsanto to the Conviction Buy List. After several tumultuous years that saw formerly high-performing MON evolve from a richly valued, consistent beat-and-raise growth stock to an underperformer with recast earnings expectations, we believe there are concrete signs that the company is regaining momentum, and we are adding MON to our Conviction Buy List. Execution lapses, cyclical Roundup erosion, and new product growing pains should be in the past, and we expect a more customer-centric approach in FY2012 to herald a return to attractive earnings growth, market share gains, and delivery on expectations.

    We believe that the Street will reward MON shares as signposts emerge indicating that the Monsanto of old is back. As the company is poised to exit a period of disappointing results and regain its momentum, we expect both upward consensus earnings revisions and multiple expansion. Two upcoming catalysts we see for the shares are the release of yield data and seed market share gains.

    Analüütikute sõnul on MON peale mitmeid raskeid aastaid taas näitama märke taastumisest ning ollakse veendunud, et firma on tagasi jõudmas atraktiivse kasumikasvu ja turuosa võitmise juurde.

    Analüütikud on veendunud, et kui turuosalised näevad, et vana hea Monsato on tagasi, siis vastavalt sellele käitub ka aktsiahind . GS eeldab, et kui firma näitab, et on väljumas pettumustvalmistavate tulemuste perioodist, siis reageerib sellele ka konsensus ning hakatakse prognoose kõrgemale korrigeerima. Kahe peamise katalüsaatorina oodatakse saagikuse näitajate avaldamist ning infot seemnete turuosa võitmise kohta.

    Goldmani uus hinnasiht tähistab new street high`d ja MON on ka tuntud hea kauplemisaktsiana. Kuigi pole tegemist reitingumuutusega, siis toetava turu taustal võiks see call turuosalistes täna huvi äratada küll.
    Eelturul kaupleb MON 2% plusspoolel, $75,40 kandis.


  • Apple Saves the Day ... For Now
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/20/2011 8:44 AM EDT

    "High achievement always takes place in the framework of high expectation."
    --Charles F. Kettering

    Although expectations were extremely high, Apple (AAPL) came through with another superior earnings report that was strong enough to keep the stock running. AAPL has moved up nearly 20% in the past month, so good news was already priced in, but AAPL did not disappoint and there is no sign of a "sell the news" reaction so far.

    The big move in the indices Tuesday was probably caused, at least in part, by anticipation of a strong AAPL report. It also helped that President Obama saw progress in the debt-ceiling negotiations -- but that doesn't mean our challenges have suddenly disappeared. We still have to contend with the battle between the macro and micro, and the micro is unlikely to be as uniformly positive as AAPL. Good earnings reports can help bolster sentiment and overcome worries about debt and the sputtering economy, but it is by no means smooth sailing for the bulls.

    According to SentimenTrader.com, a strong report from AAPL when the Nasdaq is near a high usually does not produce sustained momentum. In fact, there has typically been a substantial pullback in the month that follows. According to SentimenTrader, "There have been 11 times since 1997 that Apple gapped up by more than 3% the morning after earnings, when the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) was within 3% of a 52-week high. During the next month, the NDX dropped at least -2% every time, at least -4% eight times and at least -9% six times."

    While I definitely would not rush out and short the market based on those statistics, I would keep them in mind and not be too fast to embrace the idea that we are going to go straight up from here. In fact, there were a number of earnings reports that weren't so hot last night, such as Riverbed (RVBD) , Fortinet (FTNT) , Chipotle (CMG) and Yahoo! (YHOO) , so it may not be the utopia that AAPL's report suggests.

    The big challenge is to knock out some trades in the good-acting individual stocks while avoiding a negative surprise on the macro front. The potential for surprise headlines is extremely high, and that can very quickly undermine astute stock picking. It is very hard to have a high level of trust when the potential of more debt issues in Europe or some political blow-up in the U.S. is so high.

    Intel (INTC) is the major earnings report after the bell and is of particular interest because it often has been a key catalyst. The reaction to Intel often establishes the theme of earnings season. There have been times when the report has been the foundation for a substantial rally, like in July 2009, and there have been aggressive "sell the news" reactions to seemingly strong reports, like in May 2010.

    While good earnings news and progress on the debt-ceiling have given us a positive bias, it is likely to be a bumpy road today, especially if macro matters come to the forefront again. I'll be focusing on longs and looking for strong charts, but my time frames are short and I'll be aggressive about protecting gains when I have them.

    At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
  • June Existing Home Sales 4.77 mln vs 4.93 mln Briefing.com consensus; May revised to 4.81 mln from 4.81 mln
  • MON-i liikumine jäi täna küll turu nõrkuse tõttu natuke lahjaks, aga kes oskas peale avanemist momenti tabada, on ilmselt rahul. Aktsia avanes $ 75,15 pealt ja peale avanemist tuli alla $ 74,70 kanti ning tuli sealt tagasi üles, käies ära ka $ 76,60 peal. Hetkel on aktsia tagasi kukkunud oma avanemistaseme juurde ning kaupleb $ 75,00 peal ehk 1,55% plusspoolel.

  • TSLA Discloses supply and service agreement with Toyota, valued at $100M
    TSLA teatas koostöölepingust Toyotaga, mille kohaselt varustab firma Toyota RAV4 elektriauto versiooni vajalike seadmetega nagu aku, laadijad, mootor jne.
    TSLA kaupleb selle peale 7% kõrgemal.
  • Täna alustas USA aktsiaturul kauplemist Zillow (Z), mis pakub oma klientidele võimalust internetis oma kinnisvara väärtust hinnata. IPO hinnaks kujunes $ 20,00 aktsia eest, aga aktsia avanes kauplemiseks lausa $ 60,00 pealt ja on nüüd kukkunud $ 34,30 kanti, kaubeldes 70% plusspoolel. Sellisele volatiilusele jääb isegi LNKD-i aktsia esimene kauplemispäev alla.


  • FFIV tulemused küll ootustele vastavad, aga seda on siiski liiga vähe ja aktsia kauplemas 13% miinuspoolel, $ 103 kandis.
    F5 Networks beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs in-line (111.44)
    Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $0.97 per share, $0.06 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.91; revenues rose 26.1% year/year to $290.7 mln vs the $290.7 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.97-0.99 vs. $0.98 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q4 revs of $307-312 mln vs. $309.62 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

  • Intel prelim $0.59 vs $0.51 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $13.1 bln vs $12.82 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    INTC-lt üle ootuste paremad tulemused ja aktsia hetkel kauplemas 1,5% plusspoolel, $ 23,40 kandis.



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