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Börsipäev 21. juuli

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  • Tänase päeva fookus langeb eurotsooni tippkohtumisele, mille eel kirjutab FT, et Saksamaa ja Prantsusmaa on eile jõudnud esialgsele kokkuleppele. Kuigi täpseid detaile ei ole kinnitatud, pakub leht, et Kreeka abipakett võib sisaldada 71 miljardi euro ulatuses laenuraha ning 50 miljardi euro suurust maksu euroala pankadele (viie aasta peale), mida kasutatakse riigi 350 miljardi euro suuruse võlakoorma lunastamiseks 20% ulatuses. Kohtumine ise peaks hakkama kella kahe ajal.

    Makro poole pealt avalikustatakse täna kell 11.00 eurotsooni juulikuu esmane PMI näit, kell 11.30 Suurbritannia juuni jaemüügi muutus, kell 15.30 USA möödunud nädala esmaste töötuabiraha taotluste number, kell 17.00 juhtivate indikaatorite indeks ning Phiadelphia Fedi küsitlus.

    Euro on dollari ja Šveitsi frangi suhtes võitnud taas veidi maad tagasi ning kaupleb vastavalt tasemetel 1,4268 USD (+0,43%) ja 1,1720 CHF (+0,68%). Dow ja S&P 500 futuurid liiguvad 0,30% rohelises ja Euroopa on avanemas hetkeinfo kohaselt 0,2% kõrgemal.

    Majandustulemused teatavad täna enne USA turu avanemist AT&T, Eli Lilly, Goodrich, Ericsson, Morgan Stanley, Nokia, PepsiCo, Philip Morris International. Pärast turgu saabuvad AMD, Microsoft, Sandisk, Western Digital.
  • HSBC koostatav Hiina PMI indeks näitas juulis langust 48,9 punkti peale, mis märgib 28 kuu madalaimat taset ning ühtlasi seda, et riigi töötleva tööstuse näol on riigi majandus jätkamas jahtumist. Samas väidavad paljud, et HSBC indeks võib olla pisut pessimistlikum kui ametlik PMI indeks, mis avaldatakse 1. augustil. Kui HSBC küsitleb 450 ettevõtet, siis valitsuse läbiviidud uuring jälgib 730 ettevõtte käekäiku ja seega kajastab laiemat pilti. Lisaks võis arvamust mõjutada kuu alguses globaalsetel turgudel valitsenud pessimistlik sentiment ja intressimäärade tõstmine Hiina keskpanga poolt.
  • Nagu Prantsusmaa ja Saksamaa täna varasemalt avaldatud PMI näidud juba vihjasid, jäi ka eurotsooni üldine töötleva tööstuse näitaja oodaust madalamaks, alanedes möödunud kuu 52 punkti pealt 50,4 punktile (prognoositi 51,5 punkti). Teeenuste PMI oli aga juuli esimeste nädalate seisuga 51,4 vs oodatud 53,2. Euro on data peale dollari suhtes tõusu veidi tagasi andnud, ent kaupleb jätkuvalt plusspoolel (+0,275 @ 1,4246 USD)
  • Euro rallies in recent trade as headlines cross wires on draft Greece plans; U.S. stock futures are near the overnight highs as well, S&P futures now +6
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MVIS +20.1%, DTLK +17.3%, RHI +9.2%, HNR +5.2%, MLNX +4.8%, MS +4.7%, NOK +3.6%, BANR +3.5% (ticking higher), SCSS +2.3%, TCBI +2.2%, LLY +1.3% (light volume), PM +0.9% (light volume), DO +0.4%.

    M&A news: SFN +51.8% (to be acquired by Randstad for $14/share), MHS +23.7% (Medco Health Solutions & Express Scripts sign definitive merger agreement; Medco shareholders to receive $29.1 bln or $71.36/share in cash & stock), SPNS +4.4% (Sapiens Int'l, IDIT and FIS to merge; Sapiens will issue a total of 17.5 mln common shares and warrants to purchase 1 mln common shares, in addition to a payment of $6.75 mln in cash), IDCC +4.2% (continued momentum following M&A speculation).

    Select financial related names showing strength: BCS +2.9%, RBS +2.3%, NBG +2.3%, CS +1.5%.

    Other news: RLD +4.2% (RealD and Cinemark Agree to 1,500 Additional RealD 3D-Enabled Screens), FNGN +3.8% (will replace Sterling Bancshares in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), BPAX +3.7% (signs Melanoma vaccine license), CVS +3.4% (trading higher with PBM peer MHS), NLST +2.9% (announced that its HyperCloud Memory module is qualified and available from NEC in the compute server of the LX Series), SINO +2.3% (continued strength), AZN +2.1% (announced that the FDA approves new medicine BRILINTA (ticagrelor) for use in the US), ECPG +2% (will replace Integral Systems in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), FRO +1.4% (still checking), GSK +0.5% (still checking, possibly AZN sympathy play).
  • Initial Claims 418K vs 411K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 408K from 405K
    Continuing Claims falls to 3.698 mln from 3.748 mln


  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NTWK -30.5%, TZOO -20.1%, STX -12.6%, EMAN -12.5%, EMCI -11.3%, GNW -10.2%, PLXS -10.1%, SABA -9.8% (light volume, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Craig Hallum, downgraded to Hold from Buy at The Benchmark Company), ERIC -8.9%, ENTG -8.1%, MKSI -7.7%, FFIV -6.7%, IR -6.1%, EBAY -5.9%, HNI -4.6%, CAKE -4.3%, TSCO -4.3%, TEX -3.7%, WHR -3.1%, QCOM -2.3%, XLNX -2.2%, NFX -2.2%, ABB -2.2%, NE -2.1%, PEP -1.7%, INTC -1.7% (also downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Nomura), EGHT -1.6%.

    M&A news: ESRX -8.3% (Medco Health Solutions & Express Scripts sign definitive merger agreement; Medco shareholders to receive $29.1 bln or $71.36/share in cash & stock).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: RIO -1.3%, BBL -1.3%, GFI -1.2%.

    Other news: ALU -5.4% (trading lower with ERIC), CLSN -4.4% (announces $18.4 mln in financing), ABC -4.2% (still checking), ARMH -3.2% (still checking), .

    Analyst comments: CLB -5.2% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC), PRXL -3.3% (downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Jefferies), TOL -2.3% (Toll Brothers downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), FGP -1.4% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup), SPH -0.9% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup).
  • Practice Persistence and Perseverance
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/21/2011 8:55 AM EDT

    "Perseverance is not a long race; it is many short races one after another."
    --Walter Elliott

    Earnings reports are rolling in but they aren't doing much to attract buyers. After the stellar reports from Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) , most of the other reports just aren't strong enough to cause sustained excitement.

    Intel (INTC) , for example, came in slightly ahead of estimates but is trading down and even has a downgrade. Technology stocks in general are under pressure as management blames weakness in Europe for problems. There are few big blowouts and not much upbeat guidance.

    The bulls are hopeful that some good reports will help to offset the macro picture, which continues to be quite troubling. In Europe, Germany and France have worked out yet another deal to bail out Greece, but fears of debt contagion remain very high with France now being mentioned as the next possible victim.

    China reported the weakest Purchasing Managers' Index number in a year and reflected a jump in inflation. Of course, in the U.S. we continue to have a contentious political debate over the debt ceiling, which is likely to come down to the wire.

    If unexciting micro news and a murky macro picture aren't enough, there's a very slow market environment as summer vacation heats up and market interest declines. We just don't have a lot of emotion or aggressiveness driving us either way, and we end up drifting around as market players search for catalysts.

    Despite the uninspiring overall market picture, the trading environment can be decent if we stay focused and pick a few stocks that work well. Persistence and perseverance are the keys. In this sort of market, the opportunities are smaller but stand out better and attract more sustained interest. That can create decent opportunities if your style is to trade aggressively in the short term.

    There are plenty of negatives, but I find it better not to focus on them too much. Instead, I look for good chart setups, seek out the few positive themes and focus on what works. The big picture is going to be a drag, but the overall trend is muddled and there isn't any clear technical reason to be overtly negative.

    Things are perking up as headlines indicate a deal for Greece. It seems like we have rallied on news that Greece has been saved about twenty times already; apparently, we can do it again. Whether or not it produces sustained strength is another matter.
  • Green Mtn Coffee (GMCR): Hearing target increased to $120 at SunTrust

  • EUR kaupleb USD suhtes 2 nädala tipus.

  • Goldman Kreekast:

    The second package for Greece will be funded by the EFSF. Total committed issuance by this vehicle just for the program countries could exceed EUR100bn, out of a current lending capacity of EUR440bn (of which AAA-countries support EUR255bn). AS EXPECTED, BUT THE SIZE OF THE EFSF COULD BE INCREASED FURTHER

    EFSF loans to Greece will be modified and extended from 7.5-yrs to 15-yrs. This would represent the second extension of maturities. AS EXPECTED

    Rate on NEW conditional loans to Greece (EUR70bn) could be as low as 3.5%. Currently swap +300bp on 15-yr loan would mean reduction from 6.5% to 3.5%. Probably similar terms also for Ireland and Portugal. BETTER THAN EXPECTED

    'Marshall plan’ for Greece to spur investment; no details; but big emphasis on growth, key variable for debt sustainability, Note that co-financing on EU funds had already been lowered to 15%. BETTER THAN EXPECTED, PENDING DETAILS

    No details on private sector PSI: debt buyback, rollover, swap; all should be voluntary; probably will trigger 'selective default', but ECB will probably compromise. STILL UNCLEAR, BUT BROADLY IN LINE
  • Tänase päeva tegi superiks ka Taaramäe - üldarvestuses 11, noortest valge särk !! Super vana (vabandust, noor)!!
  • Vaatasin ka sõitu Eurospordi vahendusel. Tõsine tegija mägedes
  • Carney says no deal, report is wrong, according to Press Sect Carney - CNBC
  • SanDisk prelim $1.14 vs $1.00 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1.38 bln vs $1.34 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    SNDK reports Q3 non-GAAP gross margin of 45.3%, street expectations 43.3%
  • Acme Packet prelim $0.29 vs $0.26 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $79.7 mln vs $76.86 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Coinstar sees Q2 EPS of $0.96-1.00 vs $0.81 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $434-436 mln vs $445.92 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Coinstar sees FY11 $2.90-3.15 vs $2.99 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $1760-1850 mln vs $1.81 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; annoucnes additional $250 mln buyback
  • Microsoft: Wires reporting ES of $0.69, vs $0.58 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Microsoft revs $17.37 bln vs $17.20 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    Järelturul aktsia reaktsioon tulemustele sisuliselt olematu, hetkel kaupleb $ 26,85 kandis.

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