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Börsipäev 29. juuli

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  • USA sessiooni esimeses pooles näis justkui oleksid turud lõpetamas kolmepäevase langusseeria, saades tuge oodatust paremast tööturustatistikast ja majade müüginumbrist, ent viimastel tundidel langes fookus taas võlalimiidile ning S&P ja Dow lõpetasid kerges miinuses. Esindajateoja spiiker Boehner pidanuks eile oma kava hääletamisele panema, ent seda siiski ei toimunud, kuna puudus piisav poolehoid isegi vabariiklaste endi leeris. USA futuurid reageerisid sellele järsu langusega ning kauplevad hetkel -0,7% punases. Kohtumised peaksid täna jätkuma, ent isegi kui seaduse eelnõu peaks Esindajatekojast läbi minema, siis demokraatide suure vastuseisu tõttu lükatakse see Senatis tõenäoliselt tagasi. Seejärel oodatakse Harry Reidi eestvedamisel kompromisseelnõu kokkupanekut, mis võiks Esindajatekotta uuesti hääletusele minna heal juhul pühapäeval. Ühtlasi peaks täna pärast turgude sulgemist USA rahandusministeerium andma ülevaate, milline on nende tegevusplaan laenuvõimaluse puudumise korral pärast teist augustit.

    Turgude fookus püsib edasi läbirääkimiste protsessil, kuid selle kõrval leidub ka üsna olulist makrot. Eeskätt raporteeritakse USA teise kvartali SKT muutus (kell 15.30), mis turu ootuste kohaselt peaks näitama 1,7-1,8%-list kasvu. Zerohedge on välja toonud päris hea kokkuvõtte sellest, kuidas konsensus on tugevalt oma nägemust selles osas kärpinud. Lisaks tuleb kell 16.45 avaldamisele Chicago PMI ja kell 16.55 Michigani ülikooli tarbijasentimendi juulikuu indeks.



    Euroopa turud on avanemas -1,2-1,6% punases, kui lisaks USA võlaprobleemidele teatas Moody’s täna hommikul, et võib lähiajal langetada Hispaania krediidireitingut ühe pügala võrra.

    The main driver of Moody's decision to place Spain's sovereign rating on review for possible downgrade is the increased vulnerability of the Spanish government's finances to market stress and consequently to elevated funding costs and event risk. Funding costs have in fact been rising for some time for the Spanish government and for many closely related debt issuers, such as domestic banks and regional governments.

    Euroopa makrost võiks huvipakkuvam olla Saksamaa juunikuu jaemüük ja eurotsooni juulikuu esmane inflatsiooninäit (kell 12.00).
  • Saksamaa jaemüük alanes juunis veidi vähem kui arvati, näidates -1,6% asemel -1,0%list langust (YoY). Lisaks korrigeeriti eelmise kuu muutus 2,2% pealt 3,1% peale. EUR/USD on aga jätkuvalt Moody'se kommentaaride mõju all, kaubeldes -0,4% madalamal ($1,4277).
  • Nagu Erko börsipäeva alguses mainis, siis täna avaldatakse USA 2. kvartali SKP. Allolev bell curve annab ülevaate, kui suured vahed on analüütikute ootustel. Konsensuse mediaan on 1.8%. Suurimat ehk 2.9%-list kasvu ootab Landesbank Berlin ning madalaima ootusega on väljas ING (+0.9%). SKP ootused analüüsimajade lõikes: Jefferies & Co (+2.2%), UBS (+2.0%), Credit Suisse (+2.0%), Barclays (+2.0%), Morgan Stanley (+1.9%), Deutsche Bank (+1.8%), J.P. Morgan (+1.8%), BNP Paribas (+1.0%) ja Nomura (+1.0%). Nagu graafikult näha võib, siis enim oodatakse 2.0%-list kasvu ja 1.5%-list kasvu (Y telg tähistab analüüsimajade arvu).

  • Briefing.com vahendusel:

    Q2 GDP Deflator- advanced +2.3% vs +2.0% Briefing.com consensus
    Q2 GDP- advanced +1.3% vs +1.7% Briefing.com consensus
    Q2 Employment Cost Index- advanced +0.7% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus
  • Q1 GDP lowered to +0.4% from +1.9%
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: STMP +15.5%, INPH +11.5% (thinly traded), CYH +11%(also announces definitive agreement to acquire Tomball, Texas hospital; financial terms not disclosed), TORM +10%, MSCC +9.4% (light volume), IM +9.4%, TRLG +7.7%, AXL +6.8%(ticking higher), RGC +6.4%, QLIK +5.9%, NTRI +4.8% (ticking higher, also authorized share repurchase of $150 million), EXPE +4.7%, MXIM +4.1%, MCK +3.9%, ZOLL +3.9%, JAZZ +3.6%, VRTX +3.4%, CERN +3.2%, PWER +3.2%, SBUX +2.6%, AMGN +2.5%, MET +2.5%, CHK +2.3%, N +1.7% (ticking higher), RSG +0.5% (light volume).

    M&A news: AHCI +61.2% (Allied Healthcare to be acquired by Saga Group Limited for $3.90/share or ~$175 mln).

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength after Chesapeake Energy confirmed discovery in the Utica Shale: EVEP +15.9% (also and was upgraded at Wells Fargo), GPOR +5.3%, CNX +1.9%.

    Other news: CMC +9.1% (Carl Icahn discloses 9.98% stake in 13D filing), YHOO +8.1% (Alibaba Group, Yahoo!, and SoftBank reach agreement on Alipay), VOD +5.4% (Verizon Wireless announces $10 bln distribution to Verizon and Vodafone in January 2012), ACFN +3.7% (agrees to sell CoaLogix for $101 mln to Energy Capital Partners; a private equity firm), PCLN +1.5% (higher with EXPE).

    Analyst comments: AIG +1.1% (AIG initiated with a Hold at Citigroup).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: STEC -34.7%(also downgraded to Hold at ThinkEquity, downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), VPRT -32.7%(also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen, downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), TNAV -24.9%, AGP -14.0%, RLD -13.1%, CTCT -11.6%, NTGR -11.2%, NXPI -11.1%, TRID -10.7%(also licenses to Sunplus its current MEMC patent portfolio), OCLR -10.5%(light volume), PEIX -10.2%, IPCM -10.2%(light volume), NANO -9.8%, DRIV -9%, MMI -7%, SYNA -6.9%, ACI -6.7%, ISTA -6.3%(also reports results from the first of two trials in the REMURA Phase 3 clinical program for dry eye disease), VECO -4.7%, CSTR -4.6%, ACOM -4%, E -3.2%, QLGC -2.7%(light volume), EMN -2.2%(light volume), NEM -2.1%, TOT -1.6%, DECK -0.9%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: IRE -4.6%, LYG -2.8%, BCS -1.3%, HBC -0.8%, UBS -0.8%, .

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: VALE -2.4%, BBL -2.1%, BHP -1.5%, GFI -1.2%, MT -0.8%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: RIG -1.7%, BP -1.3%, RDS.A -1.0%.

    Other news: MILL -9.4% (continued weakness following cautious newsletter mention), VE -7.4% (still checking), OCZ -7.3% (lower with STEC), SLW -2.6% (lowers 2011 production guidance).

    Analyst comments: EGLE -3.4% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup), GIL -2.5% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup), UAL -2.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Ticonderoga), HAE -1% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan).
  • July Chicago PMI 58.8 vs 58.0 Briefing.com consensus; June 61.1
  • July Michigan Sentiment- final 63.7 vs 63.8 Briefing.com consensus; Prelim 63.8
  • Fed purchases $2.72 bln worth of 2014/2015 maturities through POMO as dealers looked to put back $13.69 bln
  • Headlines crossing that Rep Cantor says the Republicans have the votes to pass the Boehner bill; expect a vote sometime today
  • House says will convene around 2 ET, after which votes expected within one to two hours after that
  • White House says would consider lifting debt ceiling for few days if needed - CNBC

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