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Börsipäev 1. august

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  • Nädalavahetusel on vabariiklaste ja demokraatide läbirääkimised jõudnud lõpuks punkti, kus mõlemad näivad kokkuleppega rahul olevat. Antud plaani kohaselt tõstetakse USA võlalimiiti vähemalt 2,1 triljoni dollari võrra ning tingimuseks on hetkel 900 miljardi ulatuses eelarvekärpeid järgmise 10 aasta jooksul ning täiendav kokkulepe on nõutav aasta lõpuks, mis suurendaks kärpeid veel 1,5 triljoni dollari võrra. Juhul kui teises etapis kokkuleppele ei jõuta, leiab aset 1,2 triljoni dollari ulatuses automaatseid kulukärpeid, mis rakenduvad 2013. aastast ning jaotuvad võrdselt kaitsesektori ja osade kodumaiste programmide vahel. Antud kava peaks hääletamisele minema täna ning ligi 1,3% kõrgemal kauplevate USA indeksfutuuride järgi võib öelda, et turuosalised hindavad nii Senati kui Esindajatekoja heakskiitu tõenäoliseks.
  • Fookus jääb püsima tänasele hääletusele, kuid samal ajal leidub ka makrot, mis võiks turuosaliste tähelepanu köita. Kell 11.00 raporteeritakse eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse juulikuu lõplik PMI indeks ja kell 11.30 Suurbritannia vastav näitaja. Pool tundi pärast USA turgude avanemist avaldatakse Ühendriikide töötleva tööstuse juulikuu ISM näit.
  • Hiina tööstustoodangu kasv näitab nii CFLP kui HSBC PMI indeksite järgi jätkuvalt jahtumismärke:

    HSBC: “The final reading of the HSBC China manufacturing PMI printed marginally below 50, albeit better than the flash reading. This has confirmed the slowing growth momentum of the manufacturing sector against the backdrop of sustained tightening and lacklustre external demand. That said, the current level of the PMI is still consistent with a 12-13% growth rate of industrial production, which leaves room for Beijing to keep tightening policy through 3Q to check inflation.”
  • Eurotsooni PMI juulis 50,4 ehk sama, mis esmane näit (juunis 52.0)
  • Suurbritannia PMI oli pettumustvalmistav, kui oodatud 51 punkti asemel oli indeks juulis 49,1, millega viidatakse juba töötleva tööstuse aktiivsuse langusele. GBP/USD on uudise peale tõusu käest ära andnud ning kaupleb nulli lähedal @ 1,616 USD
  • Goldman Sachs tõstab täna RadioShack (RSH)-i reitingut Hoia pealt Osta peale koos $ 18 hinnasihiga ja lisab ühtlasi ka aktsia oma Conviction Buy (CL) nimekirja.

    We upgrade RSH to CL-Buy from Neutral. We see an attractive entry point into shares and expect earnings trends to accelerate off recent trough levels. RSH’s addition of Verizon to its wireless assortment, replacing T-mobile, broadens its market opportunity substantially, and should drive reacceleration in wireless sales trends, overall same-store sales growth, and earnings growth. Acceleration in YTY growth will be more pronounced as the firm cycles clearance of consumer electronics goods in 2H2010, and the dilutive impact of T-Mobile to margins in the past several quarters.

    We see three catalysts on the wireless front: (1) The release of iPhone V later this year will spur wireless market growth after a tough 2Q. (2) The addition of Verizon to RSH stores in mid-September should sharply increase the stores’ relevance to consumers. (3) The passing of challenges related to a change in Sprint’s upgrade policy – a distinct issue from Sprint’s broader challenges – should aid wireless sales recovery. - Management presents at the GS Retail conference in early September. - We expect the company to begin to deliver upside to consensus in the December quarter, after a choppy, transitional September quarter.

    Analüütikud usuvad, et peale oodatust paremaid tulemusi jätkub ettevõtte jaoks positiivne trend ja Verizoni lisandumine WiFi valikusse, avardab oluliselt ettevõtte võimalusi.

    Goldmani analüütikud näevad RSH jaoks tulemas mitmeid katalüsaatoreid ja muuhulgas tuuakse välja iPhone V turule tulek, mis kannustab kahtlemata WiFi turu kasvu ja Verizoni lisandumine septembri keskpaigas tõstab RSH poodide tähtust klientide silmis.
    Analüütikud usuvad, et ettevõtte tulemused hakkavad konsensuse ootusi ületama detsembri kvartalis, peale traditsiooniliselt nõrka septembri kvartalit.

    Möödunud nädalal andis RSH teada oma koostööst Vesrizoniga ja ka tulemused olid paremad, kui oodatud (õigem oleks ehk isegi öelda, et tulemused ei olnud nii halvad, kui kardetud). Peale tulemusi ja uudist tõusis tugevalt alla müüdud RSH aktsia 20% kõrgemale ($ 16 taseme alla). Arvestades sellega, et aktsia on koos turuga viimastel päevadel alla tulnud, siis pole eelturu tugevus aktsias ka väga üllatav (eelturul on RSH kauplemas 6,25% plusspoolel $ 14,80 kandis).
    Antud hinnataset peaks siiski liiga riskantseks, sest Goldmani callide mõju väljendubki tihtipeale eelturul kõrgele ostetud aktsia näol, mis peale avanemist uuesti alla müüakse. Seega võiks võtta aktsia täna radarile eesmärgiga jälgida olukorda peale avanemist.

  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: AUXL -6.6%, L -0.3%.

    Several healthcare related names are under pressure following CMS update on Friday afternoon: SUNH -53.6% (also downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer, downgraded to Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan), KND -29.4% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC), SKH -27.8% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan, downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC), FVE -9.1%, BKD -6.5%, (expects CMS changes to reduce full year Cash From Facility Operations in the range of $20-25 million), SRZ -5.3%, AMED -3.4%.

    Analyst comments:
    NHC -2.5% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan), VE -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman).
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HUM +5.4%, HBC +3.9%, HMC +1.8%, (ticking higher), CYOU +1.1%, SOHU +0.9%, .

    M&A news: PAET (stock halted; PAETEC Holding to be acquired by Windstream for 0.460 shares of Windstream common stock; transaction valued at ~$2.3 bln), WWON (stock halted, Westwood One One to Merge With Dial Global).

    Select financial related names showing strength: DB +1.7%, BCS +1.5%, RBS +1.3%, .

    A few China internet related names are lifting following SOHU results: SINA +3.5%, BIDU +3.1%, YOKU +1.6%, NTES +1.0%.

    Casino/gaming names seeing modest strength following Macau results: MPEL +4.8%, MGM +3.2%, WYNN +2.8%, LVS +1.8%

    Other news: TLB +9.3% (Sycamore Partners discloses 9.33% position in 13D filing), MILL +8.1% (rebounding after the co filed 10-K Friday after the close), RCL +4.5% (still checking), GMCR +4.4% (continued strength), SD +3.7% (SandRidge Permian Trust launches initial public offering of 31.5 mln shares; will trade under 'PER'), PLX +3.1% (has submitted its reply to the Complete Response to the FDA after its review of its New Drug Application for taliglucerase alfa), F +2.4% (strength attributed to positive mention in financial newspaper), MT +2.1% and BTU +0.7% (Peabody Energy and ArcelorMittal submit all cash offer to acquire Macarthur Coal for AUD4.7 bln), AMZN +1.5% (strength attributed to positive mention in financial newspaper).

    Analyst comments: SPF +6.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), RSH +4.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; also added to Conviction Buy List), DAL +4.6% (upgraded to Buy at Dahlman Rose), APOL +2.8% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman), EMC +2.4% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), UAL +2.1% (upgraded to Buy at Dahlman Rose), VOD +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), JAZZ +0.6% (ticking higher, upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies).
  • Don't Get Too Excited
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    8/1/2011 8:37 AM EDT

    "Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully."
    --Samuel Johnson

    We knew that a gap was likely this morning, depending on what happened in Washington over the weekend. The bulls are celebrating. It isn't a done deal yet, as a vote in the House is still necessary. While the far right and the far left won't support the bill, it looks like there are enough votes in the middle to put it in the hands of President Obama.

    We are looking at a good-sized gap up in the early going, but we aren't close to being back to where we were Tuesday night, before the debt drama really gained steam. The market isn't going to reverse the damage done last week so easily. A number of other issues have popped up recently and they are going to make buyers hesitate, even if they completely shake off the damage done by this debate.

    Once a debt bill is passed and signed, there's still some risk that the ratings agencies will cut U.S. debt. They made it clear that a deal to raise the ceiling wouldn't be enough if there wasn't progress to make structural changes as well. Most analysts believe the ratings agencies will back off for now, but that risk is still there.

    The other major obstacle is the lousy economy. The poor GDP number Friday was overlooked during the debt debate drama, but all agree that it was disappointing and does not bode well. The economic numbers have been consistently disappointing lately and we have had a very mixed earnings season.

    I don't want to sound too gloomy, as it is a major positive to have this debt debate over with finally. The market hates uncertainty, and at least we can focus on other issues now. While we might not have ideal fundamental conditions in place for a sustained uptrend, at least we can move on to the next set of issues and deal with them.

    It is important not to get too excited about this gap up. There is still some political wrangling to be done, and we may see a little choppiness. Even after the deal is done, we'll have to see how much real buying there is. Flipping into early strength is likely, but the real test will be the degree of buying interest on early pullbacks. If the dip buyers don't show a high level of interest quickly, it is going to be tough going. But if they jump in on minor pullbacks, the chase will be on.

    It is very likely that many market players are lightly invested after the poor action last week and they are going to be looking for entry points. It is very important to stay selective and not panic. Emotions will cool quickly and the better technical patterns will come to the forefront fast. If you have a shopping list of stocks that were beat up last week, now is the time to start looking for entry points -- but it is important to move incrementally and to watch for signs that a sustained rally is likely to develop.

    Regardless of what the market ends up doing, it is going to be a relief not to hear about this debate anymore. Hopefully, we will be less headline driven and can focus more on individual stock picking instead. We'll see how the mood develops, but we definitely have to look for entry points with this debt uncertainty lifted.
  • kogu eelturu pluss on nüüd käest antud ning ISM viis indeksid edasi miinuspoolele

    July ISM Index 50.9 vs 54.0 Briefing.com consensus; June 55.3
  • Šveitsi frank on jätkuvalt koht, kust kaitset otsitakse ja nii on dollar ja euro mõlemad tegemas frangi vastu uusi ajaloolisi põhjasid. EUR/CHF täna -1,8% ja USD/CHF -0,9%. Veel aprillis maksis üks euro 1,31 franki, täna aga 1,109 - langust nelja kuuga 15%
  • Šveitsi frangi kõrval on ka Jaapani jeen jõudnud USA dollari vastu kõikide aegade tippu ja hetkeseisuga on USDJPY teinud uueks ajalooliseks põhjaks 70,30, mis on ühe punkti võrra madalam, võrreldes märtsikuu maavärinajärgse tasemega. Märtsikuu jeeni tugevnemisele rekordiliste tasemeteni järgnes Jaapani keskpanga ja G8 ühisüritus jeeni vahetuskursi langetamiseks.

    Lisaks kirjutab Reuters, et Jaapani idaosa on tabanud 6,1-magnituudine maavärin; tsunami hoiatust ei ole antud.
  • RSH upgrade oli täna igati ebaõnnestunud ajastusega. Kuigi RSH kukkus oodatult peale avanemist oma eelturu tippudest alla, siis paraku põrget peale avanemist ka ei pakkunud, sest nii tugev see call polnud, et vastu seista tänasele müügisurvele,mis kogu turul võimust võttis. Varane tugevus müüdi pilbasteks nii turul kui ka RSH-s ning hetkel kaupleb aktsia $ 14,07 kandis ehk 1,1 % plusspoolel.

  • ABC uudiste vahendusel on Boehner teatanud, et vajalikud hääled on võlalimiidi kokkuleppe jaoks koos.

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