LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 16. august

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Viimase kolme päeva tõusuga on Dow Jones indeks (+7,1%) teinud tagasi kogu languse pärast USA krediidireitingu alandamist, ent tee üles on kulgenud oluliselt õhema käibe toel, kui see oli languspäevadel (eilne käive oli möödunud kahe nädala madalaim). Ülemüüdud tingimustes oli teatud põrge ootuspärane, ent taastumise kiirus on olnud üsna muljetavaldav võttes arvesse, et makronäitajad jätkavad halvenemist. Eilne esimene regionaalne töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (NY Fed Empire State) püsis ligilähedasel tasemel korrigeeritud juuni näitajaga, kuid ettevõtete järgmise kuue kuu hinnang tegi läbi 23,5 punktise kukkumise tasemele 8,7 punkti (nõrgim alates 2009.a veebruarist) ning oluliselt negatiivsem oli hinnang ka kapitalikulutustele ning tööhõivele.

    Täna jätkatakse Euroopas teise kvartali SKT numbrite avaldamist, kui enne eurotsooni üldist näitajat (kell 12.00) on veel teadmata Saksamaa ja Hispaania numbrid (kell 9.00 ja 10.00). Edasi liigub fookus Merkeli ja Sarkozy kohtumisele, mis algab Eesti aja järgi kell 18.00 ja päädib pressikonverentsiga 20.30). USA sessiooni eel saame aga kuulda, kui suur oli juulis alustatud elamuehituste arv ja millises mahus väljastati ehituslubasid (kell 15.30). 16.15 raporteeritakse juuli töötustoodangu muutus ja tootmisvõimsuse rakendamise määr.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,5% punases, jättes sellega ka liikumised Aasias suhteliselt tagasihoidlikuks. Euroopa on aga hetke info kohaselt avanemas nulli lähedal.
  • Saksamaa majanduse kasv jäi sarnaselt Prantsusmaale ootustest väiksemaks...+0,1% QoQ vs prognoositud +0,5%. Esimese kvartali muutus revideeriti 1,5% pealt 1,3% peale.
  • Hispaania SKT kasvas teises kvartalis 0,2% võrreldes esimese kvartaliga. Kasv küll aeglustus 10 baaspunkti võrra, kuid näitaja ühtis konsensuse ootusega.
  • Värskema info kohaselt peaks Merkeli Sarkozy kohtumine algama Eesti aja järgi kell 17.00 ja pressikonverents algama kell 19.00. Kuigi iseenesest ei tohiks sealt turgude jaoks midagi uut tulla (eriti kuna euro võlakirjade teema pole päevaplaanis), siis osutatud tähelepanu järgi võiks eeldada, et mingeid kommentaare loodetakse EFSF 2.0-i ja euro võlakirjade kohta siiski kuulda.
  • Eurotsooni majandus näitas teises kvartalis 0,2%-list kasvu võrreldes Q1, osutudes prognoositust pisut tagasihoidlikumaks (ootus +0,3%). Aasta baasil registreeriti kasvuks 1,7%.
  • Suurbritannia aastane inflatsioon tõusis juulis 4,4% tasemele. Turu konsensus ootas 4,3%.
  • AIB on siin börsipäeva foorumis kunagi jutuks tulnud ning nüüd on selge, et NYSE-l kaubeldav ADS delistitakse 25. augustiks või umbes sel ajal.
  • CNN veebilehel on artikkel, mis kirjutab Hiina plaanist astuda USA kandadele sektoris, kus USA on kaua aega liidrikohta hoidnud. Jutt käib biotehnoloogiast ja sellega seoses on Hiina valitsus teada andnud, et kavatseb alates käesolevast aastast kuni 2015. aastani investeerida biotehnoloogiasse $ 308 miljardit. Selle projektiga seoses kavatsetakse luua üks miljon uut töökohta, tõsta inimeste eluiga ühe aasta võrra ning vähendada laste suremismäära 12%-ni.
    Artiklis tõstatakse küsimus, kas USA ravimiarenduse tööstusest on saamas uus Detroit, sest peale tohutuid investeeringuid (ligi $ 1 triljonit alates 2000. aastast), on ravimitööstus tulnud välja ainult 21 uue ravimiga aastas (ainult 2/3 võrreldes saavutustega 1996-2004). Ravimite testimine ja arendamine võtab aega aastaid ja 90% uutest ravimitest ravimiameti heakskiitu ei saa. Seetõttu on investorid kogu ärimudeli kahtluse alla seadnud ning enamus biotehnoloogia firmasid vaevlevad rahapuuduse käes.
    Artiklis tõdetakse, et kuigi hetkel pole veel ükski riik USA-le reaalselt kannale astumas, siis tõenäoliselt on USA pikemas perspektiivis siiski oma liidrikohta ravimitööstuses kaotamas. Mis iseensest ei pruugi üldse olla halb ei tarbijale ega ka ettevõtete kasumireale, kuid muutustega kohanemine saab olema ilmselt valulik.
  • July Building Permits 597K vs 606K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 617K from 624K
    July Housing Starts 604K vs 608K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 613K from 629K
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NLST +16% (ticking higher), SWSH +14.8%, CDII +10.4%, STV +9.8% HSFT +8.9%, FN +6.3%, ZOOM +3.3% (ticking higher), HD +2.7%, WMT +1.7%.

    M&A news: PPDI +2.4% (continued strength following reports related to co discussions with Carlyle Group), RLRN (Renaissance Learning to be acquired by Permira Funds for $14.85 per share in cash).

    Other news: VRSK +6.2% (Berkshire Hathaway discloses new position in VRSK at ~2.1 mln shares), DG +3.8% (Berkshire Hathaway discloses new position in DG), AVII +3.2% (MDA collaborates with co on first Phase 2 placebo-controlled clinical trial of Exon-51 skipping drug as potential therapy for duchenne muscular dystrophy).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: VIT -16.5%, LWAY -14.6%, MY -11.4%, DANG -9.6%, DKS -7.4%, URBN -6.9%, GURE -6.7%, (thinly traded), PRGO -5.3%, AEG -4.5%, SKS -4.1% A -2.8%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: NBG -6.2%, RF -6.2%, BCS -4.3%, STD -3.5%, DB -3.4%, BAC -3.1%, UBS -2.9%, CS -2.3%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: MT -3.9%, BBL -3.4%, BHP -3.2%, RIO -2.9%, AU -1%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -3.7%, BP -3%, TOT -2.9%, RDS.A -2.6%.

    Other news: SODA -5.7% (Cramer makes cautious comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: RIMM -2.9% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Societe Generale), ALB -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Perform at Oppenheimer), PCG -1.9% (removed from Conviction Buy list at Goldman), TWC -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie).
  • Proceed With Caution
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    8/16/2011 8:42 AM EDT

    "Confidence is the feeling you have before you understand the situation."
    --Unknown

    Yesterday, the market pulled off one of those very low volume, straight up bounces that always confounds bears and underinvested bulls. After a very nasty breakdown, the market acts like it doesn't have a care in the world and suddenly all the media talking heads are confident that it's clear sailing to the upside, even though we are rallying on less than half the volume that drove us down.

    More often than not, that bullish thinking has worked well. Waiting for a retest of the lows or another pullback has simply been wrong, although it is the logical thing to expect. Quickly regaining confidence in the resiliency of the market has probably been the best trading approach since the bottom in March 2009.

    The big question now is whether it is different this time. Do we still have the same conditions in place for this market to recover in effortless fashion, as if there is nothing in the world to worry about?

    One of the big drivers behind prior recoveries was the endless flood of cash provided by the Fed's quantitative easing program. That helped to keep the U.S. dollar weak and gave us steady underlying bids. Whenever we started to look weak, that liquidity would kick in and we'd recover quickly. Of course, once we started to recover in this manner, it would feed on itself as market players worried about being left behind as the market enjoyed yet another V-shaped bounce.

    What is tripping up the bulls, who were ready to signal an all clear after two positive days of action, is some surprising weakness in the German economy. Growth was only 0.1%, which was well below expectations and a sharp drop from the prior quarter.

    Germany is the key to the various sovereign-debt-bailout plans in Europe, and a weak economy obviously complicates matters. German and French leaders are scheduled to meet today to address the crisis, and the news flow from that meeting is going to push the market around.

    Despite the bounce, the big picture is not very pretty. We have recovered some of the recent losses, but the breakdown in early August has not been repaired. We have had a standard low-volume oversold bounce. The bulls were optimistic about a fast and easy recovery, like we've seen so often, and it is hard not to rule that out given recent history, but the picture is not very pretty.

    The big reason that traditional technical analysis doesn't anticipate the market to go straight back up after a breakdown like the one we've had is because this sort of action creates a big supply of folks who want to escape. They have suffered some sizable recent losses that may have caused some sleepless nights and if they can dump some of those positions on a rebound and cut their losses, they are going to do so. In addition, the bears start to gain confidence that maybe a much more severe downtrend is developing and they tend to press when we have low volume bounces.

    Typically, we need some back-and-forth action to give us a low we can eventual trust, and it now looks like we are going to have something other than a V-ish bounce, which should make trading more interesting. It is going to be much easier to find better setups if we don't have another one of these very low volume, straight up moves.

    Don't forget that for the next two weeks we are at the peak of summer vacation season and it is going to be very slow. That will likely add to the volatility, especially as high-frequency traders have become more active lately.

    It is going to be tough slogging so take it slow and don't force trades. I can't find many good long setups for position trades and it is going to take a while for that to improve.
  • Inglismaa kõrgliiga jalgpalliklubi Manchester United plaanib käesoleval aastal börsile minna. FT Alphaville'i vahendusel:
    RTRS-PREMIER LEAGUE CHAMPIONS MANCHESTER UNITED PLANS $1 BLN IPO IN SINGAPORE BY YEAR-END – IFR

    English Premier League football champions Manchester United plans an initial public offering in Singapore by the end of the year, depending on market conditions, IFR reported on Tuesday, citing a source with direct knowledge of the plans. With more than 190 million fans in Asia, out of nearly 300 million around the world, the region has become an important growth area for the team.

    WSJ-i poolt veel lisaks:
    U.K. football club Manchester United is planning to raise around $1 billion from a Singapore initial public offering in the fourth quarter, people familiar with the situation said Tuesday.

    They said Credit Suisse Group has been mandated by the club as sole global coordinator and bookrunner on the deal.

    The club, which was once listed on the London Stock Exchange, had initially planned to list in Hong Kong. Manchester United was delisted in 2005 after U.S. businessman Malcolm Glazer bought the club.
  • July Industrial Production +0.9% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus; June revised to +0.4% from +0.2%
    July Capacity Utilization 77.5% vs 77.0 Briefing.com consensus; June revised to 76.9% from 76.7%

  • Fitch Affirms United States at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable
  • Bank of America on fondijuhtide seas läbi viinud küsitluse (244 vastanut) ning Street Insideri vahendusel võib lugeda, et täna usutakse QE3 tulemisse rohkem, kui kuu aega tagasi, sest ainult 22% välistab selle võimaluse täiesti versus juulikuu 40%. Valdav osa fondijuhte on majanduskasvu osas üsna negatiivsel seisukohal ja raha osakaal fondides on tõusnud kuu ajaga 4,1% pealt 5,2% peale. Üllatuseks on fondijuhid Euroopa aktsiaturgude pärast vähem mures kui kuu aega tagasi, aga üldplaanis siiski negatiivsel seisukohal.
  • Sarkozy: France and Germany to propose Euro zone econ council, says France, Germany are absolutely determined to defend the Euro
    Sarkozy says he and Merkel decided to propose common governance for euro zone, says proposal would elect a Euro Zone president for two and a half years
    Sarkozy says France, Germany to propose in September a new tax on financial transactions
    Merkel says Eurozone countries must respect new fiscal rules and debt limits, european commission needs stronger powers on fiscal rules
  • Dell prelim $0.54 vs $0.49 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $15.7 bln vs $15.77 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Analog Devices prelim $0.71 vs $0.73 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $758 mln vs $779.41 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

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