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Börsipäev 10. oktoober

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  • USA indeksite futuurid on kauplemas ligi protsendi jagu kõrgemal ning EUR/USD taastunud 1,3480 dollari juurde, kui Merkel ja Sarkozy lubasid oktoobri lõpuks tulla välja eurotsooni stabiliseeriva laiaulatusliku paketiga. Samal ajal aga käis aga nädalavahetusel pingeline arutelu, kuidas päästa võlakriisi esimest ohvrit, Prantsuse-Belgia panka Dexiat. Praeguseks on kokkuleppele jõutud, et Belgia ostab 4 miljardi euro eest ära kohaliku üksuse ning pakub 60% ulatuses nö halva panga alla koondatava 100 miljardi euro suuruse võlakirjaportfellile garantii. See peaks moodustama ligikaudu 20% Belgia SKT-st ning seepärast on mõistetav, miks Moody’s asetas Belgia krediidireitingu võimaliku kärpe tõttu vaatluse alla. Belgia riigi võlakoorem ulatus eelmisel aastal 96,2%-ni SKT-st.

    Kuna Columbus Day tõttu on osad turud täna USA-s suletud (NYSE siiski avatud), siis kauplemine on sellevõrra õhem ning kuna ka makro poole pealt midagi tähtsat oodata pole, siis tõenäoliselt dirigeerib meeleolu EFSFi ja pankade rekapitaliseerimisega seotud uudistevoog.

    Euroopa on futuuride kohaselt avanemas ca protsendi jagu kõrgemal.
  • Kyle Bass Hayman Capitalist viibis eelmisel nädala CNBC eetris ja nagu tavaliselt, on teda riikide võlateemadel alati huvitav kuulata. Link
  • Eurotsooni oktoobrikuu Sentix investorite indeks -18,5 vs oodatud -18,0 punkti (septembris -15,4). EURUSD kauplemas jooksva kuu tippudes $1,3565 juures (+1,4%).
  • Vaatamata aktsiaturgude viimaste kuude langusele on turuosalised suurendamas oma short positsioone tempos, mida viimati nähti viis aastat tagasi. Antud Bloombergi artiklis tuuakse ühtlasi välja fakt, et Dow Jonesi indeksis on kõige rohkem tehtud panused just Alcoa aktsia langusele (4,4% floatist). Alcoa teatavasti avab tulemustehooaja homme pärast turgu ja eks näis, kas lühikeks müüjatele antakse põhjust oma positsioone katma tulla.
  • Kyle Bass samal üritusel täpselt aasta tagasi. Väärib samuti vaatamist.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCYIBf4_GMw
  • Kreeka tööstustoodang langes kohaliku statistikaameti andmetel augustis võrreldes aastatagusega 11.7% pärast 2.8%-list langust juulis, viidates majandusolukorra halvenemisele. Statistikaameti andmetel oli tegu suurima langusega alates 2009. aasta juunist. Augustis vähenes enim elektritootmine (-16.7%). Esimese kaheksa kuuga on tööstustoodang vähenenud 8.4%. Kreeka ootab käesoleva aasta SKP languseks 5.5%.
  • Vallo Lees
    Kreeka tööstustoodang langes kohaliku statistikaameti andmetel augustis võrreldes aastatagusega 11.7% pärast 2.8%-list langust juulis, viidates majandusolukorra halvenemisele. Statistikaameti andmetel oli tegu suurima langusega alates 2009. aasta juunist. Augustis vähenes enim elektritootmine (-16.7%). Esimese kaheksa kuuga on tööstustoodang vähenenud 8.4%. Kreeka ootab käesoleva aasta SKP languseks 5.5%.


    mujal Euroopas läheb veidi paremini

    ROME, Oct 10 (Reuters) - - French and Italian industrial output was surprisingly strong in August, boosting prospects for third-quarter growth in the euro zone's second- and third-largest economies, although analysts said this only masks underlying stagnation.
    French output posted a 0.5 percent monthly increase compared with forecasts of a 1.0 percent decline, while output in Italy leapt 4.3 percent compared with expectations of a modest 0.2 percent increase, data showed on Monday.
    German industrial output dropped 1.0 percent on the month in August, data showed last week, but the fall was smaller than expected. Data on Monday showed German exports hit an all-time high in the same month.
    The latest data runs against business surveys that have pointed to a significant slowdown in industrial activity in the euro zone since the beginning of the third quarter
  • NFLX teatas, et loobub plaanist luua DVD ärist eraldiseisev üksus ehk teisisõnu alles kuu aega tagasi välja kuulutatud Qwiksterit ei tule. Ühtlasi lubab ettevõte, et rohkem ei ole oodata ka hinnamuutusi.
    Turule on uudis igati meelt mööda ja NFLX-i aktsia kaupleb eelturul $ 128 kandis ehk 9,2% plusspoolel.
  • Gapping up
    M&A news: CPX +58% (Complete Production Services to merge with Superior Energy Services in $6.2 bln combination; CPX stockholders will receive 0.945 common shares of SPN and cash of $7.00 in exchange for each share of CPX common stock held at closing).

    Select financial related names showing strength: RF +4.4%, DB +3.9%, BCS +3.8%, UBS +3.5%, BAC +3.1%, ING +2.7%, BAC +2.7%, DB +2.6%, HBC +0.9%, STD +0.7%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: TCK +7.9%, RIO +4.9%, GOLD +4.4%, BBL +4.2%, MT +3.9%, BHP +3.8%, HMY +3.8%, SLV +3.3%, GLD +1.8%, PAAS +1.5%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: STO +4.2%, TOT +4.1%, RDS.A +3%, BP +2.1%.

    A few European drug names trading higher: SNY +3.3%, NVS +3.1%

    Other news: CJES +14.2% (boosted by CPX news), OMEX +14.1% (discovers a shipwreck that was torpedoed during the World War I while carrying a shipment of silver), NFLX +4.5% (Netflix confirms it will not rename its DVD-by-mail service; U.S. members will continue to go to the Netflix website for both unlimited streaming and unlimited DVDs), ARMH +4.3% (still checking), NOK +4.1% (still checking), YHOO +3.9% (Alibaba has talked with Temasek for Yahoo! Stake), AMZN +1.4% (higher despite reports that Connecticut officials are being persistent with taxed on internet sales).

    Analyst comments
    : ABB +4.5% (Hearing upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), MU +4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), POT +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at Ticonderoga), NFLX +2.4% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Janney).
  • Šveitsi frank on vahelduseks näitamas korralikku tugevust: EURCHF -0,8% ja USDCHF -2,55%.
  • Gapping down
    M&A news: SPN -9% (ticking lower; Complete Production Services to merge with Superior Energy Services in $6.2 bln combination; CPX stockholders will receive 0.945 common shares of SPN and cash of $7.00 in exchange for each share of CPX common stock held at closing).

    Other news: INSM -19.4% (announced that it has been notified by the FDA that it is continuing the clinical hold previously placed on Insmed's phase 3 clinical trials for ARIKACE), NBG -8.3% (still checking), SNP -2.3% (light volume; China Petroleum (Sinopec) offers CAD 2.2 bln For Daylight Energy out of Canada, according to reports).

    Analyst comments: S -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Collins Stewart, downgraded to Hold at Kaufman Bros).
  • http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-09/no-recession-for-u-s-as-economists-improve-forecasts-to-weakest-expansion.html

    A string of stronger-than-projected statistics -- capped by the news on Oct. 7 of a 103,000 rise in payrolls last month -- has prompted economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Macroeconomic Advisers LLC to raise their growth forecasts for third quarter growth to 2.5 percent from about 2 percent. That’s nearly double the second quarter’s 1.3 percent rate and would be the fastest growth in a year
  • Select financial related names showing strength: RF +4.4%, DB +3.9%, BCS +3.8%, UBS +3.5%, BAC +3.1%, ING +2.7%, BAC +2.7%, DB +2.6%, HBC +0.9%, STD +0.7%.

    BAC on millegipärast kaks korda?
  • MSM
    Select financial related names showing strength: RF +4.4%, DB +3.9%, BCS +3.8%, UBS +3.5%, BAC +3.1%, ING +2.7%, BAC +2.7%, DB +2.6%, HBC +0.9%, STD +0.7%.

    BAC on millegipärast kaks korda?


    ilmselt inimlik eksimus ja mõeldud on seal mõnda muud tickerit
  • Reuters kirjutab, et Kreeka keskpank on sisuliselt alustanud kohaliku väikepanga riigistamist:
    Greece's central bank said on Monday it activated a bank rescue fund to save Proton Bank, effectively nationalizing the small lender that is under investigation for possible violation of the country's money-laundering laws.

    Ja Bloombergilt artikkel Taani panga Max Bank AS kohta. Teatavasti võttis Taani mõned kuud tagasi vastu otsuse pankasid maksumaksja raha eest mitte välja aidata:
    Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Max Bank A/S became Denmark’s first insolvent lender to test a bank package designed to sidestep the country’s bail-in laws after the state was able to find a buyer and avert senior creditor losses.
  • Risto Sverdlik
    Šveitsi frank on vahelduseks näitamas korralikku tugevust: EURCHF -0,8% ja USDCHF -2,55%.

    JPMorgani arvates võib Šveitsi keskpank rihtida EURCHF vahetuskursiks 1,3000.
  • Fitch downgrades Spanish Sovereign Guaranteed Debt to 'AA-'

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