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Börsipäev 21. oktoober

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Ei ole kahtlustki, et turuosaliste kogu tähelepanu pälvib see, mis toimub Euroopas ning milline saab olema lahendus võlakriisile. Kauplemine globaalsetel aktsiaturgudel jätkus eile kuulujuttude meelevallas, kui Euroopa sulgumise eel hakkasid ringlema kommentaarid nädalavahetusele planeeritud ELi tippkohtumise edasilükkamisest. DAX sulgus lõpuks -2,5% madalamal ja USAgi oli päeva keskel protsendi jagu madalamal vaatamata sellele, et Philly Fed kujunes tugevalt üle ootuste ning muu makro oli enam-vähem in-line.

    Hiljem avaldasid Prantsuse president ja Saksamaa kantsler ühise pressiteate, milles tõepoolest kinnitati, et pühapäeval tõenäoliselt mingeid lõplikke otsuseid ei tehta, küll aga seadsid ambitsioonika plaani avalikustamiseks järgmise kuupäeva, 26. oktoober. See süstis USA sessiooni keskel turuosalistesse taas tavapärast optimismi, aidates S&P 500 indeksil sulguda 0,5% kõrgemal.

    Täna algab Eurogrupi kohtumine, mis jätkub homme Ecofin miitingu näol ning päädib pühapäevase Euroopa Liidu tippkohtumisega. Seega tõenäoliselt kuuleme kõiksugu sõnavõtte rohkem kui varasematel päevadel eesotsas täna näiteks Sarkozy, Trichet, Starki ja Rehniga. Makro poolel võiks ainsana huvi pakkuda Saksamaa oktoobrikuu IFO indeksid (kell 11.00). Kvartalitulemused raporteerivad enne USA turgude avanemist muuhulgas Honeywell, Manpower, McDonald’s, Schlumberger ja Verizon.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,3% kõrgemal ning Euroopa on avanemas 0,2-0,7% plussis.
  • Euro on täna hommikul sattunud uuesti tugeva surve all, sihtides taas $1,3700 taset. Euroopa aktsiaindeksid kauplevad seevastu 0,5-1,5% plusspoolel.
  • IFO küsitluse järgi näitasid septembrikuuga võrreldes langust Saksamaa ettevõtete hinnang nii jooksvale olukorrale kui ka järgnevate kuude väljavaadetele, vastates ka analüütikute ootustele. Jooksev hinnang 116,7 vs prognoositud 116,5 ja ootuste indeks 97,0 vs prognoositud 97,0
  • WSJ kirjutab, et USA Föderaalreserv kaalub järjekordseid meetmeid, eesmärgiga puhuda kinnisvaramulli uus kopsutäis õhku.
    Federal Reserve officials are starting to build a case for a new program of buying mortgage-backed securities to boost the ailing economy, though they appear unlikely to move swiftly.

    The idea would be to target any new efforts by the central bank at the parts of the economy that are most severely impeding a recovery—the housing and mortgage markets—by working to push down mortgage rates.

    Lower mortgage rates, in turn, could encourage more home buying and mortgage-refinancing, and help the economy by freeing up cash for consumers to spend on other goods and services. Mortgage rates are already very low, but some Fed officials believe they might be pushed lower. Moreover, Fed officials believe their past purchase programs helped to lift stock markets, by driving investors from low-risk investments toward riskier investments.

    "I believe we should move back up toward the top of the list of options the large-scale purchase of additional mortgage-backed securities," Federal Reserve governor Dan Tarullo said in a speech Thursday at Columbia University.
  • TI-sse oli KL üles tõstnud sellise toreda jutu. Pole ammu midagi nii lahedat lugenud:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/efsf-hedge-fund
  • AGM
    TI-sse oli KL üles tõstnud sellise toreda jutu. Pole ammu midagi nii lahedat lugenud:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/efsf-hedge-fund


    Tõesti väga lahe kirjatükk. Soovitan samuti soojalt :)
  • Täna avalikustas Eurostat 2010. aasta korrigeeritud andmed eurotsooni valitsuste eelarve puudujäägi ja võla kohta. Eelarve puudujääk langes eelmisel aastal 6,2%-ni SKPst vs 2009. aasta 6.4% suurune näitaja, ületades siiski enam kui kahekordselt 3% suurust kriteeriumi. Valitsuse võlg suhtena SKPsse tõusis 79,8% pealt 85,4%-ni. Valitsuse võla kriteeriumiks on 60% SKPst.
  • Notable Calls annab täna kauplemisideeks GMCR-i. Teatavasti on aktsia olnud viimased päevad tugeva müügiurve all, kuna tuntud lühikeseksmüüja David Einhorn teatas, et ettevõtte raamatupidamine on pettus. NC kirjutab, et täna on GMCR kaitsma tulnud SunTrust analüütik Willam Chappell, kes ütleb, et Einhorn on asjadest täiesti valesti aru saanud. SunTrust kinnitab aktsiale oma Osta soovitust koos $ 120 hinnasihiga ja lisab GMCR oma Top Pick nimekirja.
    Einhorn on kahtlemata aktsiasse meelitanud aukartustäratava hulga lühikeseksmüüjaid, kellel täna jalgealune võib üsna tuliseks minna.
    Eelturul kaupleb GMRC $ 71,50 kandis, üle 5% plusspoolel.

  • American Intl: Reuters, quoting a court ruling, reports that AIG loses bid to move $10 bln mortgage fraud lawsuit vs Bank Of America (BAC) back to NY State court from federal court
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: STX +14.4%, SYNA +11.1%, GNC +7.7%, ACTG +5.9%, IBKR +4.8%, CMG +3.9%, HON +3.4%, MCD +2.6%

    European financials showing strength on reports that Germany and France are on the same page ahead of the EU summits: DB +2.7, BCS +2.7%, CS +1.7, RBS +1.5%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: RIO +3.42%, AKS +2.7%, X 2.6%, AUY +2.4%.

    Other news: HALO +10.5% (positive results from Phase 2 Ultrafast Insulin trials; light vol)

    Analyst comments: WYNN +1.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: HITT -11.2%, MTG -9.8%, INFA -5.6%, PDS -3.2%, RRR -2.3%, SLB -2%, APKT -1.7%, GE -0.9%.

    Other news: RDN -12.5% (trading lower in sympathy with MTG earnings), PMI (ticking lower as well with MTG).

    Analyst comments: AIXG -7.4% (downgraded to Hold at Kaufman Bros), SSI -3.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Suntrust).
  • Wait for Your Pitch
    James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Oct 21, 2011 | 8:55 AM EDT

    "Style is knowing who you are, what you want to say, and not giving a damn."
    --Gore Vidal

    A major challenge in the stock market is that different styles of investing and trading work best at different times. Sometimes it's momentum, other times its fundamentals, and sometimes it's shorting or charts -- any number of things. Ultimately, there is some sort of strategy or style that has the right logic for the current market conditions.

    The current market environment has been particularly challenging because there aren't many styles or approaches that have been effective lately. What has worked best is day trading the headlines out of Europe. When indices are soft, you start anticipating some sort of positive news that will suddenly spike and can squeeze the shorts, and when we are up you start looking for some negative catalyst to kick in just as buyers are becoming comfortable again. The action has been up and down like that for about two-and-a-half months.

    What is most frustrating for most market players is that it has been a waste of time to consider individual charts or fundamentals. Stocks move on European headlines and the vehicle you are in doesn't even matter. What makes it even more challenging is that this action is accentuated to a great degree by the heavy trading of ETFs and the computerized high-frequency trading programs. The action is driven from the top down and from Europe in particular.

    It is very easy to complain about this because one thing a great many individual market players tend to pride themselves on is good stock picking. Few things are more rewarding than identifying the stocks that are going to attract the most attention and act best. Without the ability to pick good stocks, many traders have no real edge.

    The stock-picking game simply isn't working right now and that is causing a great amount of frustration and unhappiness as we react to European news headlines day after day. You can see it in the mood of the market, which is surprisingly dour even though we are at the top of a month's long trading range and have not been acting that badly.

    This morning, the action is once again being driven by the latest news out of Europe. This time it is due to optimism that Germany and France are close to some agreement in front of their meeting next Tuesday. We danced around to this issue yesterday, but now it seems to be resolved and Europe is saved once again.

    Unfortunately, I don't have a lot of great suggestions for dealing with this market other than to be patient and wait for your pitch. You can try to trade the headline news, and I bet there will be plenty of folks looking to fade the early strength this morning on headlines that don't really appear to be all that remarkable.

    I remain focused on individual names with the expectations that sooner or later, the focus on macro matters will decline. Maybe I'm being a starry-eyed optimist, but I continue to feel we have a good chance of seeing a stock-pickers' market again as earnings season progresses and end-of-the-year seasonality kicks in.

    As always, the key to market success is to keep plugging away. If you have been feeling frustrated lately, like so many, just accept it and go back to work trying to find an edge. Eventually, the market dynamics will change in a way that favors you, and if you are mentally prepared, the tough times will be quickly forgotten.
  • Jaapani jeen on teinud USD vastu äsja uue kõikide aegade tipu 75,81 tasemel. Mis selle taga võiks olla on hetkel ebaselge.
  • Foster Wheeler (FWLT) pops ~0.50 on volume; strength attributed to takeover rumor
  • Ei tea, kas kellelgi on EL summiti otsuste kohta eelinfot, et DAX on juba peaaegu +3,4%?
  • BRUSSELS (AP) — The chairman of the Eurogroup says eurozone finance ministers have agreed that banks need to take substantial losses on their Greek bondholdings.
    Jean-Claude Juncker said Saturday that "yesterday we agreed that we need a substantial increase in the contribution from the banks."
    Juncker, who is also the prime minister of Luxembourg, did not say how big the cuts would have to be.
    In July, banks had tentatively agreed to take a loss of about 21 percent on Greek bonds, but it has since become clear that that is not enough to make Greece's massive debts sustainable.
    Austria's Finance Minister Maria Fekter said the chief negotiator for the eurozone has been asked to restart negotiations with banks. That suggests that the eurozone is still aiming for a voluntary deal with banks.

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