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Börsipäev 31. oktoober

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  • Uus nädal on alanud turgudel negatiivse meeleoluga. Aasia turud on hetkel kauplemas kuni 1,25% miinuspoolel ja USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad keskmiselt 0,85% madalamal. Reedel lõpetasid Euroopa indeksid peale DAXi poole protsendi jagu punases ja USA indeksid lõpetasid sisuliselt nullis.

    Euroopa eelmise nädala võlakriisi piiramise kokkuleppest tingitud eufooria jäi väga lühiajaliseks. Sisuliselt iga päev on meedias ja finantsblogides ilmunud negatiivse väljavaatega kommentaare, mis on kritiseerinud kokkulepet praktiliselt igast aspektist.

    Bloombergi tänane artikkel Europe Might Have Blown Last Chance to End Its Crisis kirjutab sellest, kuidas preagustest kokkulepetest jääb ilmselgelt väheseks:
    At least European leaders got the pieces right this time. They have recognized that a credible plan must include big writedowns of sovereign debt, a recapitalization of the banking system and guarantees for newly issued government bonds -- and that all these elements are inextricably linked.

    But the magnitude is all wrong. Even if put in place, the plan would reduce Greece’s debt by less than 50 percent, raise about 100 billion euros in new capital and boost the guarantee capacity of the European Financial Stability Facility to about 1 trillion euros. As Bloomberg View has pointed out, sovereign writedowns should be much steeper. And Europe needs a war chest of at least 3 trillion euros to ensure recapitalizations and cover the financing needs of euro-area governments.

    The plan’s shortfalls may be intentional. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Central Bank officials blocked the only credible option, which was backed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy: an open promise from the ECB that it stands ready to buy trillions of euros in government bonds. Before anything of the sort happens, the Germans and the ECB want mechanisms in place that ensure the central bank won’t end up financing more irresponsible government spending. As outgoing ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet put it in a speech last week, European authorities need the power “to take direct decisions” on economic policy in countries that fail to keep their finances in order.

    Nädal on alanud aga suuremate liikumistega valuutaturgudel, kus Jaapani keskpank on lõpuks asunud ähvardamisest tegudeni ja on sekkunud valuutaturgudele jeeni kursi nõrgestamiseks. Jeen tõusis eile õhtul turgude avanedes USA dollari vastu uue rekordtasemeni Y75,38 juurde. Pärast sekkumist on jeen nõrgenenud USD vastu 4,7% ja euro vastu 3,5%.

    Nüüd, kus Šveitsi keskpanga kõrval hakkab tõenäoliselt aktiivsemat sekkumispoliitikat viljelema ka Jaapani keskpank, jääb ainsaks safe-haven valuutaks USA dollar. Ja uus nädal on ka dollari jaoks alanud korraliku ralliga: Austraalia dollari vastu on USD tõusnud 1,6%, euro vastu 1,1%, naelsterlingi vastu 0,87% ja Šveitsi frangi vastu 1,17%.

    Tänastest makronäitajatest avaldatakse kell 9 Saksamaa septembrikuu jaemüügi tulemused, mis peaksid ootuste kohaselt langema eelmise kuu +2,2% pealt +1,6% peale (Y/Y). Kell 11.30 avaldatakse Suurbritannia kinnisvaralaenude andmed ja tarbijakrediidi septembrikuu muutus. Kell 12 ilmub eurotsooni THI hinnang ja eurotsooni septembrikuu töötusmäär. Õhtusel sessioonil avaldatakse Kanada augustikuu SKT tulemused.
  • Saksamaa septembrikuu jaemüügi tulemused +0,4% vs oodatud 1,0% (M/M) ja +0,3% vs oodatud +1,6% (Y/Y). EURUSD on päeva põhjadest $1,3976 tasemelt taastumas ja kaupleb hetkel 0,83% miinuspoolel $1,4030 juures.
  • Meeldetuletus veel kõigile USA turul kauplejatele: käesoleval nädalal toimub Eesti talveajale ülemineku tõttu USA aktsiaturgudel kauplemine tavapäraselt varem ehk 15:30-22.00. Järgmisel nädalal läheb ka USA talveajale üle ja siis toimub regulaarkauplemine endises ajavahemikus (16.30-23.00).
  • Itaalia olukord on murelikumaks muutunud. 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus on täna tõusnud ligi kahe kuu tippu 6,149% peale.



    Itaalia töötusmäär tõusis septembris 30 baaspunkti võrra 8,3% peale, mis on kõrgeim tase alates eelmise aasta novembrist.

    The Guardiani blogi vahendusel:
    Italian bond yields rose on Friday following a disappointing auction in which less than the target amount of bonds were sold. Too much could be read into this auction though as investors may have been reluctant to buy Italian debt now if from a credit prospective they can get the same, but with an EFSF guarantee, in a month or two.

    Notwithstanding our view that it is likely that in the event of Italy actually going bust the ability and willingness of the EFSF to pay up under the guarantee would probably be very low, investors still might consider that any show of support is better than nothing.

    Thus the unintended consequences of last week's plan might be that Italy will find it more costly to fund itself in the interim period whilst we await full details of the proposed guarantee structure.

    No doubt there will be further speculation as we proceed towards the G20 meeting but one presumes that at some stage the EU will have to come up with actually implementation of their plans in order to encourage investors to lend to Italy.
  • Eurotsooni töötusmäär tõusis eelmise kuu 10 baaspunkti võrra üles korrigeeritud 10,1% pealt 10,2% peale septembris.
    Eurotsooni THI hinnang oktoobris 3,0% vs oodatud 2,9% (Y/Y), jäädes seega muutumatuks.
  • Jaapani jeen ei taha väga alluda keskpanga sekkumisele. USDJPY on pärast 79,50 tasemeni jõudmist langenud 77,88 peale, kaubeldes avanemistasemest 2,75% kõrgemal.

  • OECD avaldas äsja oma uusima prognoosi maailmamajanduse kasvuväljavaadete kohta, kus ennustatakse eurotsoonile vägagi nigelat 2012. aastat. Rõhutati ka seda, et võlakriisi tõttu võib nii mõnigi eurotsooni riik näha majanduslangust. Tänase prognoosi kohaselt oodatakse terve eurotsooni kasvuks järgmisel aastal 0,3% (maikuus oli prognoos +2,0%). USA majanduskasvu prognoos langetati 3,1% pealt 1,8% peale.
    A deterioration of financial conditions of the magnitude observed during the (2007-2009) global crisis could lead to a drop in the level of GDP in some of the major OECD economies of up to 5 percent by the first half of 2013.

    Pikemalt siin.
  • Fondijuht John Paulson, kel endal küll see aasta just parimad ajad käsil pole, rääkis eile New Yorkis aset leidnud Chinese Finance Association nimelisel üritusel oma nägemusest nii Euroopa võlakriisi kui ka Hiina majanduse kohta ja Business Insider on mõned tema mõtteterad ka välja toonud:
    -- "With housing slow to recover...probably another 2 years until we return to stronger rates of growth"
    -- "Europe has resources to solve problem"...there's hope in solution but "issues will resurface if not in 2011 than 2012"
    -- "I view gold as currency, I was not interested in it as currency until quantitative easing"
    -- Paulson expects 8% growth in China for next 5 years, no hard landing
    -- "trying to invest in China from NY or London poses too much risk" ..."we haven't given up, we need more local presence"
    -- in regards to Sino Forest loss: "$100M sounds like a lot but it's just basis points in our portfolio"
  • MF Globali (MF) aktsiate kauplemine on NYSE-l peatatud.
    MF Global, the financial derivatives broker, is fighting for survival this morning. The company spent the weekend desperately trying to find a buyer for some of its assets, but so far today there is no sign of a deal.

    More than 700 people work for MF Global in London - Robert Peston, the BBC's business editor, reckons that some of them have been sent home this morning.

    So what went wrong? Last week, MF shocked investors by reporting a $186m loss for the second quarter of the year, and admitted that it has a $6.3bn exposure to European sovereign debt.

    Fitch and Moody's swiftly downgraded the company's debt to "junk".
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PCRX +22.8% (also announces U.S. FDA approval of EXPAREL for postsurgical pain management), CYOU +1.9%, HUM +1.0%.

    M&A news:
    IBKR +7.2% (higher on reports that the co may be interested in MF), HRBN +4.7% (announced over the weekend shareholder approval of merger with Tech Full Electric).

    Other news: BPHX +25% (ticking higher, to Sell AppBuilder Business to Magic Software), MNTA +19.3% (obtains preliminary injunction against Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Watson Pharmaceuticals and International Medical), CP +5.4% (Pershing Square Capital Management discloses 12.2% stake in 13D filing), BGS +2% (agrees to acquire Culver Specialty Brands from Unilever).

    Analyst comments: SVU +1.2% (ticking higher, initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan), JNPR +0.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC ), AET +0.4% (light volume, added to Conviction Buy list at Goldman).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TRMD -23.8% (thinly traded), CTB -9.3% (light volume), HMC -6.3% (ticking lower), AUXL -4.2% (light volume), SHAW -3.5%, BCS -2.1%, SOHU -1.7%, ANH -1.2% (light volume).

    Select financial related names showing weakness: DB -6%, RBS -5.8%, ING -5.7%, LYG -5%, UBS -3.9%, BBVA -3.6%, IRE -3.2%, .

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: BHP -4.2%, HL -3.4%, FCX -3.2%, SCCO -3.2%, AA -2.3%, AUY -2.1%, SLV -2%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: E -3.2%, BP -2.2% and RIG -1.6% (Transocean plans more further legal action against BP related to Gulf oil spill, according to reports), CVX -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill).

    Other news: BCON -82.2% (drops in premarket trading on reports that the co filed for bankruptcy), TS -5% (still checking), ASML -3.2% (still checking), YHOO -2.6% (Yahoo! to consider a buyback and dividend rather than sale of company, according to reports).

    Analyst comments: SNDK -3.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee), ACI -2.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Credit Agricole), CRI -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee), SKT -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), FTE -2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS ), CRM -1.9% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Global Equity Research), NVS -1% (Novartis downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen).
  • Sterne Agee alandab täna SanDisk (SNDK) reitingu Osta pealt Hoia peale koos $ 58 hinnasihiga.

    We believe SNDK is one of the best long-term stories with them move to SSD and its 3-bit manufacturing lead, but SNDK has had a 65% rebound in the last 2 months and is <10% from its 5- year high. We believe near term SNDK is baking in most of the upside from near-term positive NAND trends and HDD shortages.
    We are therefore moving from a Buy to a Neutral, $58PT.


    Seasonality Headwinds: NAND builds peak in late November and tends to see typical seasonality with weaker pricing into January-February which is a headwind for NAND stocks. 1H12 NAND Supply & Peaking Builds: With SNDK 300mm NAND supply increasing into December, Samsung’s Line16 ramp in the December quarter, Hynix M11-M12 fabs in 4Q/1Q12 and MU’s Singapore fab ramping, we could potentially have oversupply in early 1Q12. Also, given seasonal iPhone-Tablet builds peak near-term, NAND pricing trends will be seasonal. In other words, much of the near-term upside is in the stock with the 65% run-up.

    Kuigi analüütikud näevad pikemas perspektiivis aktsias endiselt suurt potentsiaali, siis lähiajal võib SNDK hinnas siiski järele anda, kuna aktsia on teinud viimase kahe kuuga läbi korraliku ralli (65%) ja kaupleb hetkel oma 5 aasta tippude lähedal. Teise põhjusena toovad analüütikud välja NAND aktsiate hooajalise nõrkuse, kuna saavutab oma tipu tavaliselt novembri lõpus ja jaanuar ning veebruar toob madalamd hinnad.

    Eelmisel nädalal lisasid oodatust paremad kvartalitulemused SNDK aktsiale veel 20% lisa ning täna juhivad analüütikud tähelepanu NAND aktsiate hooajaliselt nõrgale kvartalile, mis peaks aktsial natuke hoogu maha võtma. Tegemist pole küll väga suure maja calliga, aga kuna ka turg on täna downgrade`e toetamas, siis võiks SNDK radarile võtta küll.

    Eelturul kaupleb SNDK $ 52,10 kandis, 2,4% miinuspoolel.

  • Oct 31 (Reuters) - The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said on Monday its index of Midwest business
    activity fell in October to 58.4 from 60.4 in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a October figure
    of 59.0

    New Orders* 61.3 65.3
    Order Backlog* 51.2 45.4
    Employment* 62.3 60.6
    Supplier Deliveries* 55.8 51.9


    ma ei saa siia tabelit postitada, aga 4 komponendist 3 on paranenud
  • MF Global: CME Group Limits MF Global Trading to Liquidation Only
  • Tänu täna turul valitsevale negatiivsele meeleolule töötas ka SNDK downgrade hästi. Aktsia avanes $ 51,69 peal ja peale väikest põrget $ 52 kanti avanemisel on SNDK allapoole liikunud, kaubeldes hetkel $ 50,50 juures, 5,25% miinuspoolel.

  • VirnetX Holding: Hearing Craig Hallum initiating with a Buy, $50 tgt
  • Kui aktsiate ostjad sai kolmapäevase tsirkusega ära hullutatud siis Itaalia võlakirjade ostjad seda tsirkust uskuma ei jäänud.

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