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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 8. november

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Pullidel õnnestus eile taas end maksma panna ning vedada S&P 500 aasta lõikes uuesti kergesse plussi, seda küll madalaima käibe juures alates selle aasta juulist. Ehkki Itaalia 10a võlakirja yield ronis 6,66% peale ning Prantsusmaa peab vaatamata täiendavale 7 miljardi euro suurusele kärpekava avalikustamisele Saksamaaga võrreldes laenu võtmiseks järjest kõrgeimaid intresse välja käima, aitas USA turgude sentimenti väidetavalt parandada meedias läbi jooksnud Jürgen Starki kommentaar, et euroala võlakriis peaks olema kahe aastaga kontrolli all. Võttes arvesse, kui tundlikud on turud igasuguste kommentaaride suhtes, siis ei tohiks päeva põhjadest 1,7% rallinud S&P 500 vast suurt imestust tekitada, eriti kui siia juurde lisada õhukeste turgude faktor ning teadmine, et paljud kõrvaltvaatajaks jäänud investorid ei tahaks tavapärasest aastalõpu rallist ilma jääda, kui viimane peaks realiseeruma.


    USA-st täna olulist makrot oodata pole ning Euroopas tooks vaid välja Suurbritannia septembri tööstustoodangu muutuse (kell 11.30). Sestap domineerib sentimenti jätkuvalt uudistevoog Kreekast ja Itaaliast. Viimase puhul jälgitakse hoolega tänast 2010.a eelarve hääletust, mis iseenesest on väike formaalsus, kuid peaks näitama kas Berlusconi selja taga seisab jätkuvalt enamus parlamendist või ähvardab eurotsoonis ametist taanduda teine peaminister viimase nädala jooksul. Hetkel on 630 saadikust koosnevas alamkojas Berlusconi enamus kahanenud 314 liikmeni ehk siis vähem kui 316, mida oleks vaja seaduse heakskiitmiseks. Kuid Nomura sõnul pole hetkel tänase hääletamise osas otsuse langetanud 15 liiget. Juhul kui seadust heaks ei kiideta, järgneb tõenäoliselt usaldushääletus ning see omakorda otsustab ära parlamendi praeguse koosseisu saatuse.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,5% jagu punases, Euroopa on aga avanemas nulli lähedal või kerges plussis.
  • Homme, 9. novembril teatab eestlastele tuntud Playtech (Londoni börsil PTEC.L) oma 3. kvartali tulemused. Ettevõte toodab tarkvara netimängurlust pakkuvatele ettevõtetele. Aktsia on viimastel kuudel eurotsooni kriisiga käsikäes päris palju allapoole tulnud ning abiks pole olnud ka segased teated tulevikuplaanide kohta ja probleemid William Hill Online's. Samal ajal on Goldman Sachs aga aktsiahinna suure kukkumise järgselt muutnud aktsiale antavat soovitust, kuna usub, et ettevõttel läheb tegelikult ikkagi väga hästi. 25. oktoobril tõstis Goldman Sachs soovituse neutraalse pealt "osta" peale ning andis aktsiale 6-kuuliseks hinnasihiks 388 penni ning aktsia on sellest ajast saadik kõrgemale rühkinud. Hetkel on aktsia hinnaks 278 penni, mis jätab Goldman Sachsi hinnasihini veel 40% ruumi.

    Minu arust huvitav aktsia, millel silm peal hoida. Aktsia kaupleb 7x 2012. aasta oodatavat kasumit, 1.9x 2012. aasta raamatupidamisväärtust, teenib ca 25% ROEd ja oodatav dividendimäär on 5%-6%. Pikaajalist võlga pole. Selle aasta müügitulud peaksid koos ülevõttude ja laienemistega kasvama ligi 40% ja järgmise aasta omad turu konsensusootuste põhjal veel 25%. Oma tööstusharus on neil ikkagi üks juhtivaid positsioone ja tavaliselt selliste fundamentaalnäitajatega tööstusharu liidreid osta ei saa. Suurimate riskidena näen ise tööstusharu võimalikku reguleerimist, maksude kehtestamist, keelustamist, efektiivsuse kadu seoses ülevõttudega jne. Küll on aga praegune hinnatase pannud aktsia suunas vaatama.

    Deutsche Banki 24. oktoobri kommentaar ka siia veel:

    "Playtech shares have significantly underperformed relative to the sector and the FTSE on the back of confusing strategic messages and recent William Hill Online operational issues. However, we think the stock is now priced for disaster, trading at 5.5x FY12E earnings/FCF yield of 20% and in our view fails to reflect the growing trading and operational momentum from the migration of Paddy Power casino, the roll-out of Italian casino and for the delivery of a strong trading update at the group’s upcoming Q3/11E trading update on the 9 November. Our 12-month price target of 500p is unchanged and is driven by using a 12x P/E on 2012E earnings. The main downside risks are i) adverse regulatory changes in source markets of Playtech's licensees, ii) loss of existing licensees to competitors, and iii) a greater-than-expected impact from ongoing economic weakness than we forecast."

    Aktsia viimase kolme aasta liikumine:

  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VIMC +19.6%, (thinly traded), PKT +16.7%, TRAK +10.9%, LYG +6% (provides 9 month interim update), DRYS +4% (light volume), GTAT +3.8%, AMRN +3.8%, PCLN +2.8%, RAX +2.4% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Kaufman ), HOLX +2.3% (light volume), MMYT +1.6% (ticking higher), VSAT +1.4% (light volume), MCD +0.9%, .

    M&A news: MSSR +28.5% (Landry's signs agreement to acquire McCormick & Schmick's Seafood Restaurants at $8.75/share).

    Select financial related names showing strength: NBG +6.2%, ING +4.2%, MS +1.7%, BAC +1.7%, DB +1.5%, C +0.8%, HBC +0.7%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SU +2.1%, TOT +1.3%, RIG +1.2%, RDS.A +1.1%, BP +0.9%.

    Other news: DYN +14.2% (confirmed overnight that its subsidiaries will seek bankruptcy protection), BCRX +12.1% (presents new BCX4208 gout data at the 2011 ACR/ARHP annual scientific meeting - primary endpoint of the study was successfully achieved), RPRX +11.1% (reports that oral Androxal achieves equivalent 24 hour avg testosterone levels vs to leading FDA approved testosterone gel), SIG +5.1% (will replace Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates in the S&P MidCap 400 index), FRO +4.1% (still checking), ATVI +4.1% (co confirmed Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 is now available at retail worldwide), MTG +3.7% (reports Oct 2011 primary new insurance written of $1.4 bln; Oct 2011 beginning primary delinquent inventory is ~ 181K loans), DNDN +3.1% (still checking), ASML +3% (still checking), NAT +2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: YPF +3.4% (ticking higher, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), HON +1.9% (light volume, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LXU -11.1%, CAAS -11% (light volume), LEDS -9.1%, WMS -8.9% (also downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Credit Agricole), KW -3.7% (also announces offering of 6 mln shares of common stock), URBN -3.3%, TM -3%.

    Other news: TRGT -59.8% and AZN -3.3% (Targacept and AstraZeneca report first top-line Phase 3 results for TC-5214 as an adjunct treatment in patients with major depressive disorder; study did not meet primary endpoint), AMLN -16.7% (Amylin Pharma and Eli Lilly mutually agree to end heir alliance for exenatide and resolve the outstanding litigation between the companies), HOS -6% (announces 6.75 mln share public offering of common stock), LGCY -4.7% (announces it plans to sell 3.4 mln units in a public offering), TGI -4.2% (announces public offering of 5 mln shares of common stock), ETP -3.5% (announces common unit offering of 13.25 mln shares), PXD -3.4% (agreed to sell 5.5 mln shares of its common stock in a public offering, downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna).

    Analyst comments: EXPE -1.7% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), ITW -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup), BKE -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna, downgraded at boutique firm), ATK -0.8% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust), RIMM -0.7% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays).
  • Vastuvoolu ujuvas lukskaupade sektoris tegutsev Hugo Boss on tänasel investorite päeval oluliselt tõstnud oma keskpika perioodi eesmärke ning sellega lennutanud aktsia turul ligi 8% kõrgemale. Oluline kasvuallikas on Aasia, kus müük peaks 2015 aastaks kolmekordistuma võrreldes 2010. aastaga. (press realease)

    Metzingen, November 8, 2011. HUGO BOSS has significantly raised its medium-term sales and profit forecasts and expects to generate sales of EUR 3 billion in 2015. At the same time, EBITDA before special items is projected to increase to EUR 750 million. The Group had previously forecasted sales of EUR 2.5 billion and EBITDA of EUR 500 million.

  • Starting to See Some Better Action
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Nov 08, 2011 | 8:39 AM

    Were the inhabitants of Italy charming as their country, all other regions would be depopulated.

    --Hester Lynch Thrale

    Now that the situation in Greece seems to be moving forward in a positive manner, the market is focused on Italy and the fate of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. There is a crucial vote later today, and markets are anticipating that he will be voted out. Such a move would clear the way for a budget deal that is viewed as a positive step toward greater austerity.

    If Berlusconi survives the vote we'll probably see a quick reversal, but for now the market is anticipating that a change in Italy is about to take place. The vote is supposed to start around 9:30 a.m. EST, so we don't get too comfortable with the open.

    Once again, not much matters other than the news out of Europe. We are a little extended and there was some poor action in small-caps yesterday, but overall the market is in a very mixed position and is looking for catalysts to determine which way we will trend.

    The most notable aspect of the action lately has been that there has been a strong bias toward buying. We have had plenty of negatives and some extended technical conditions that would normally justify some selling, but there is some very persistent support. This action is largely a product of the many market players who were underinvested during the big ramp up in October. They are now anxious to buy dips, but they aren't getting too many opportunities, so they are jumping in regardless and that is holding us up.

    No one really believes that the changes in Greece and Italy are going to solve the European sovereign debt issues in the long run -- and that's driving the bears crazy. It is still widely believed that a default in Greece is just a matter of time, but the market reacts in an extremely positive way to incremental news, crushing overly anticipatory bears.

    The pullback last week and the subsequent mild upside action is helping to create some better charts. It is a bit choppy, but we don't have the "V"-shaped action of early October, and there is a more human feel to the recent trading. We actually have some ups and downs rather than one-way computer-driven action.

    We have a very high probability of being jerked around by news out of Europe today, but I'm seeing more signs that we are moving toward a stock-picker's market into the end of the year. That means that pullbacks are increasingly likely to be buying opportunities, but good trade management will be paramount as volatility is likely to stay high.

    Overall I remain optimistic about the market, but we need some downside in order to help trade opportunities develop better. Don't be too sanguine, but don't be too pessimistic either.
  • Doug Kass, kes on suurema osa sellest aastast aktsiaturgude suhtes olnud ettevaatlik ja julgenud võtta suhteliselt vähe pikkasid positsioone, kirjutas eile, miks ta on praeguses etapis muutnud pikaajalise investeerimise osas positiivsemaks

    Before I discuss the slow improvement in the three other factors, I want to emphasize that I am keenly aware of the worldwide risks associated with the impact of the current balance sheet retrenchment and the challenges associated with numerous secular headwinds. The world's economic recovery is imperfect, and with the U.S. economy exhibiting only moderate growth, there is little margin of safety for exogenous shocks. But that imperfection and vulnerability are now universally recognized (contrasted with the optimism that existed a year, six months and three months ago) and are arguably reflected and more than discounted in reasonable/current valuations.

    1. The Eurozone: Tangible progress in drafting a credible plan for the European debt crisis has started, and though this is not a permanent solution, a flawed plan is better than no plan at all. While stress points remain, crucial details are yet to be worked out and the likelihood of a European recession is high, systemic risk has been removed, and Thursday's decision to lower interest rates by the ECB further supports intermediate-term stability in the region. I am growing more confident that, in the fullness of time, more permanent solutions will follow the current strategy (and the bailout's first step) of monetization and leverage. After all, the alternative is unimaginable for the eurozone economy's longer-term health.
    2. The Political Theatre in Washington, D.C.: While a grand bargain in the U.S. (one that raises the Social Security retirement ages, raises the tax burden on the very rich, deals with the mortgage overhang, cuts the defense budget and eliminates the fiscal drag of 2012) is not likely, the super committee is now being forced to address the dual objective of assisting in generating economic growth while dealing with our fiscal imbalances. While I am not holding my breath, there have been press reports that some Democrats and Republicans might compromise on tax increases and entitlement spending cuts. We will know soon enough, as the super committee's deadline to submit its plan to Congress is only about two weeks from now. I am hopeful that the super committee and the rest of our political leaders have ;learned from the August circus in our nation's capital (that led to a plunge in confidence and in our equity markets) and will take some decisive steps to rise above their partisan interests.
    3. The Domestic Economy: The weakening business and consumer confidence that appeared in August have not impacted the hard economic statistics in the fall, and concerns of a recession next year have receded. High-frequency economic data -- for instance, the regional and national ISMs, jobless claims, leading indicators and retail sales (among other indicators) -- are not at all consistent with recession. A market-friendly Fed (sticking with a policy of low short-term interest rates as far as the eye can see) should be supportive of moderate growth of about 2% over the next several quarters. With wage growth contained, 2012 corporate profits will continue to be elevated well above the level that many have feared would be the case earlier this summer.
    /----/
    I lastly want to address current valuations, which I view as attractive. Risk premiums (the earnings yield less the risk-free rate of return) stand at a multi-decade high, placing stocks, in theory, even cheaper than at the March 2009 bottom. Looking out longer term in history, over the past 50 years the S&P 500 has averaged a 15.2x P/E multiple while the yield on the 10-year U.S. note averaged 6.67%. Today, the S&P 500 trades at only 12.5x (2012 earnings) while the yield on the 10-year U.S. note stands at only 2.05%.

  • McDermott trades to HoD; Hearing move attributed to renewed takeover chatter
  • Reuters reporting that the Italian Lower House of Parliament begins debate on ratifying 2010 financing bill, vote key to Berlusconi future expected around 1600 GMT

    ehk siis kusagil tunni pärast peaks hääletus toimuma
  • Itaalia opositsiooni parlamendisaadik, kes kutsus Berlusconit tagasi astuma, mainis hommikul, et täna ei juhtu midagi.
    Täpsemalt midagi muud ei täpsustanud.
  • Reuters reporting that Italy's Berlusconi wins budget vote after opposition abstains with 308 votes in 630 seat Parliament
  • Headlines crossing that U.S. imposing 5-year drilling ban on majority of offshore areas
  • Berlusconi astub tagasi!
    Wires reporting that Italy's President says Berlusconi will resign after approval of new budget law

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