LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 14. november

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Uus nädal on alanud positiivse meeleoluga, mis on suures osas tingitud poliitilise kriisi (ajutise) taandumisega nii Kreekas kui ka Itaalias. Itaalias andis president Napolitano pühapäeval käsu uue valitsuse moodustamiseks Euroopa Komisjoni endisele liikmele Mario Montile ja Kreekas sai vahevalitsuse juhi ameti Euroopa Keskpanga endine asepresident Lucas Papademos. Kummalgi uuel peaministril saab peamine ülesanne olema riikide majanduste kriisist välja juhtimine, mis ei saa loomulikult olema sugugi kerge ülesanne.

    Itaalia uuele valitsusele annab esimese turgudepoolse hinnangu tänane oksjon, kus loodetakse müüa 3 miljardi euro eest 5-aastaseid võlakirju. Itaalia 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus on pärast neljapäeval tehtud euroaja rekordit 7,483% juurest langenud täna hommikul 6,389% peale.

    Tänane makrokalender on sisuliselt tühi. Ainsa näitajana avaldatakse kell 12 eurotsooni septembrikuu tööstustoodangu andmed. Küll aga avaldati Aasia sessioonil Jaapani III kvartali SKT esialgsed tulemused, mille kohaselt kasvas kevadisest maavärina ja hiidlaine tagajärgedest taastuv majandus aastapõhiselt 6,0%. See on ühtlasi esimene positiivne SKT näit pärast kolme languses olnud kvartalit.

    Nii Euroopa kui ka USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel plusspoolel: Euroopa futuurid kuni 1,1% kõrgemal ja USA futuurid kuni 0,5% kõrgemal. Euro avanes eile õhtul küll kõrgemal ($1,3811 tasemel), kuid on Aasia sessioonil langenud ja kaupleb hetkel avanemistaseme $1,3747 juures.
  • * Jaapani maavärinajärgsed ülesehitustööd on majanduse käima tõmmanud. Q3 annualiseeritud kasv +6%.
    * Kardashiani eksmees kavatseb paljastada, et Kim kasutab tagumikupolsterdust!!!
  • The Telegraph kirjutas laupäeval, et EFSF ostis eelmise nädala oksjonil ise oma võlakirjasid, et Iirimaa toetuseks vajalik 3 miljardit eurot kokku saada. EFSF on täna selle uudise paikapidavust tagasi lükkamas.
  • Itaalia müüs tänasel oksjonil 3 miljardi euro eest 5-aastaseid võlakirju. Tulusus tõusis eelmise oksjoni 5,32% pealt 6,29% juurde - kõrgeim tase alates 1997. aasta juunist. Nõudluse-pakkumise suhe tõusis seejuures 1,34 pealt 1,47 peale.

    Äsja avaldati ka eurotsooni septembrikuu tööstustoodangu näidud: -2,0% vs oodatud -2,3% (M/M). Eelmise kuu näit korrigeeriti 20 baaspunkti võrra +1,4% peale.

    Euro on päeva põhjadest $1,3681 tasemelt veidi taastumas, kaubeldes 0,38% miinuspoolel $1,3696 juures.
  • Risto Sverdlik
    The Telegraph kirjutas laupäeval, et EFSF ostis eelmise nädala oksjonil ise oma võlakirjasid, et Iirimaa toetuseks vajalik 3 miljardit eurot kokku saada. EFSF on täna selle uudise paikapidavust tagasi lükkamas.


    et nagu olen iseendale võlgu?
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: OBCI +17% (thinly traded).

    M&A news: GRRF +9.4% (ticking higher, announces receipt of "going private" proposal at $3.10 Per ADS).

    Other news: ZIOP +18.6% (ticking higher, presents preclinical data for Darinaparsin effect on hedgehog signaling pathway in prostate cancer), LYB +3.7% (authorizes $4.50 special dividend and raises quarterly dividend from $0.20 to $0.25/share), EXEL +3.2% (reports preliminary data demonstrates that 40 mg daily dose of cabozantinib yields a high rate of bone scan response in Mcrpc), BA +2.7% (forecasts that airlines in the Middle East will need an estimated 2,520 airplanes worth $450 billion by 2030; receives single largest order from Emirates for 50 777-300ERs valued at $18 bln), GLW +1.7% (early strength attributed to positive mention in Barron's), MCP +1.6% (provides statement defending its Q3 earnings report), IBM +0.9% (Buffet announces that he has been buying over the last quarter; bought about $10.7 bln worth of shares), BAC +0.6% (agreement to sell ~10.4 billion shares of China Construction; expects pretax gain of ~$2.9 billion).

    Analyst comments: SNN +4% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas), AMLN +2.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird), CRM +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GLGL -35.3%, CTRP -11% (also downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray, downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna), CADC -10.4% (light volume, also announces resignation of President and CFO Jeremy Goodwin and appoints interim CFO), JKS -2.7%, JCP -2.4%, SA -0.9% (light volume), LOW -0.6% (light volume).

    Select financial related names showing weakness: BBVA -3.1%, STD -2.8%, ING -2.2%, DB -1.9%, CS -1.9%, RBS -1.5%, UBS -1.2%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: AG -4.5%, AU -2.5%, GOLD -1.9%, BHP -1.6%, BBL -1.6%, RIO -1.5%, SLV -1.1%, GDX -0.8%, GLD -0.6%.

    Other news: SIGA -20.6% (still checking), BMR -5.1% (announced the sale of 22,562,922 shares of its common stock).

    Analyst comments: CBS -2.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura), BCS -2.4% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), GMCR -2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus), TEF -1.6% (Telefonica downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), HSY -1.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus), PFE -0.9% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Leerink), AMGN -0.6% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Leerink).
  • yanek
    Risto Sverdlik
    The Telegraph kirjutas laupäeval, et EFSF ostis eelmise nädala oksjonil ise oma võlakirjasid, et Iirimaa toetuseks vajalik 3 miljardit eurot kokku saada. EFSF on täna selle uudise paikapidavust tagasi lükkamas.


    et nagu olen iseendale võlgu?


    Reuters kirjutab, et EFSFi ametnike sõnul pole sellist asja toimunud. Ehk on loogilisem oletada, et puudujääva summa ostis mõni Euroopa Liidu institutsioon, näiteks EIB?
  • Hispaania riigi võlakirjad on täna müügisurve all, kui üheks võimalikuks ajendiks oli infokild riigi pankade finantseerimisvajaduse jätkuvast kasvust. Via Bloomberg: Spanish bank borrowings from the European Central Bank rose to 76 billion euros ($104.1 billion) in October, the highest level in more than a year, as Europe’s debt crisis limited financing for the country’s lenders.

    Hispaania mädapaiseks on eelkõige kinnisvarasektorile tugevalt avatud finantssektor. John Mauldini nv newsletterist jäi silma üks huvitav tõik, et sealsed pangad arvestavad hetkel kinnisvarasektoris hindade 15%lise langusega, kui tegelik ja reaalsem eeldus oleks 50%. Kuna kinnisvara hindavad agentuurid kuuluvad pankadele, siis lühiajaliselt võib nõnda sellest probleemist pääseda.

    Hispaania 10 a võlakrja yield.
  • A Positive Development
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Nov 14, 2011 | 8:37 AM

    "The solution of every problem is another problem." --Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

    On Friday, the market jumped sharply as investors anticipated that Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi would resign soon. That is exactly what happened this weekend, and now we are seeing some sell-the-news action as the focus shifts to the next step in the process, which is passing the austerity measures required for further assistance from the European Union.

    Even though we have some selling this morning, it is a positive that progress is being made in Europe. Unfortunately, there is an awful lot that remains to be done and it is likely to be the primary driving force in the market for a while. I've been hopeful that we would start to see a greater focus on individual stock picking and less on headlines, but so far, there are few signs of that.

    The biggest challenge of this market lately has been that stocks have been so highly correlated and so sensitive to the big picture. It's been all about trading the news out of Europe and nothing else. There has been very little to gain by trying to pick stocks that will act independently of the overall market trend. If you have misplayed market direction, good stock picking has not bailed you out. In fact, buying individual stocks was a good way to underperform the indices lately.

    What has been extremely frustrating for many market players lately is that they have been bullish but underinvested, thus unable to keep pace with the overall market. Most would be better off if they simply bought an index exchange-traded fund and rode it, rather than buy stocks that deliver relative outperformance.

    The big question in my mind this morning is whether we will start to see a change in the way the market trades as the situation in Europe calms down. First, we have to see if European news starts to become less important. If it does, I suspect that market players who need to make up performance before the end of the year will focus more on finding stocks that will outperform.

    It is very tough to make up relative performance if all you are doing is buying the benchmark index that you are competing with. You need to be able to trade stocks that are outperforming the market if you hope to produce superior results.

    At the current juncture, the S&P 500 is slightly extended and heading into some overhead resistance at the 200-day simple moving average, which is at 1272. The overall pattern is still quite positive as we are holding the breakout of the trading range that occurred in late August. We have good support around 1220-1225. As I commented Friday, some backing and filling here would be quite healthy, as it would give us a base of support for the highs we hit following the Greece bailout.

    The technical pattern and positive end of the year seasonality bode well for the bulls. If the speculative money starts to focus more on stock picking and less on headlines we could have some very good trading. A day or two of rest at this point would be quite helpful in setting the stage for more upside.

    We are set for a soft open but I don't expect the bears to gain too much traction. We still have plenty of underinvested bulls and a wall of worry in place. Many market players are looking to buy a dip, and I don't expect them to be patient since they have missed out lately
  • Erko Rebane
    Reuters kirjutab, et EFSFi ametnike sõnul pole sellist asja toimunud. Ehk on loogilisem oletada, et puudujääva summa ostis mõni Euroopa Liidu institutsioon, näiteks EIB?


    Mida mitte EU finantsistid ütlevad / kardavad / väidavad on see, et see tegevus oli kooskõlastatud. Ehk tegelikult kunstlikult tekitati nõudlust. See on päris tõsine ja sügav avaldus EFSF suunas, sest sisuliselt süüdistatakse neid püramiidiskeemis. Küll aga isegi kui need on "koera klähvimised" on see praeguse vaikuse juures liiga hästi kõrvu kostuv.

    -- Kui, ütleme et toimus turu reeglite rikkumine, kelle pädevuses oleks EFSF käitumise uurimine üldse? Auskohajärgse Finantsinspektsiooni?
    -- Meenub, et EFSF asutamislepingus oli klauslid, et tema tegevust ei tohi keegi uurida ega käitumist küsimärgi alla seada. (tundub lausa mõistlik)
  • Cheniere Energy (LNG) lifting in recent trade; Hearing attributed to M&A rumor
  • Aastrom Biosciences reports positive 12-month results from the RESTORE-CLI Phase 2 clinical trial for Ixmyelocel-T in patients with critical limb ischemia

    Co reported positive 12-month final results from the RESTORE-CLI Phase 2 clinical trial of ixmyelocel-T in the treatment of critical limb ischemia patients with no revascularization options. While the study was not powered to show statistical significance in the secondary endpoint of amputation-free survival, results from a subgroup of 45 patients with wounds at baseline showed a positive trend in this measure. The study also met the primary safety endpoint with no differences between the treated and control groups.

    Hetkel on aktsiaga kauplemine peatatud.
  • Credit Suisse: Moody's puts Credit Suisse rating under review for possible downgrade - CNBC
  • UK foreign sec Hague says he will 'not rule out' military action over Iran's nuclear program - Daily Telegraph
  • King Abdullah of Jordan calls on Syrian President Bashir Assad to step down in a BBC interview - @BBCBreaking
  • -- @AlArabiya_Eng
    Obama says world is united in opposing Iran's nuclear program #alarabiya #Iran

    -- Pres. Obama on Penn State: Evil can thrive when good people stand by and do nothing - @NorahODonnell

  • Dangdang: Tiger Global Management reports new ~4.4 mln share position in DANG, which is set to report its Q3 on Wednesday
  • Iran said on Sunday it had detected the Duqu computer virus that experts say is based on Stuxnet. The head of Iran's civil defense organization told the official IRNA news agency that computers at all main sites at risk were being checked and that Iran had developed software to combat the virus.

    Stuxnet kohta on selgelt välja öeldud, et see pidi olema Siemensi abiga loodud, kuna seal oli masina spetsiifilisi funktsionaalsusi kasutatud, mida valdavad ainult seadmete loojad.

    Iran says it has detected Duqu computer virus
  • Headlines crossing wires from EU source suggesting that plans for EFSF leverage are not likely to meet the 2011 deadline
  • 21Vianet beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus
  • Berliin tõesti Ateena pisaraid ei usu.

    MERKEL'S CDU VOTES TO ALLOW EXITS FROM EURO AREA
    Bloomberg 09.11
    RMBS patents ruled invalidGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party wants to make it possible for European Union members to exit the euro area, Handelsblatt reported in a preview of an article to be published tomorrow, citing unnamed participants in the discussion. A commission within the party, that is crafting a framework to be presented at a party meeting, has proposed allowing a euro member who doesn’t want to or isn’t able to comply with the common currency rules to leave the euro region without losing membership in the EU, the newspaper said.

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