LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 16. november

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eile tegid Itaalia, Hispaania, Prantsusmaa, Belgia ja Austria võlakirjade tulusused korraliku hüppe üles, mis andis põhjust spekuleerida eurotsooni laialimineku üle. Hollandi peaminister esines avaldustega, mille kohaselt võiks osade liikmesriikide välja viskamine olla võimalik. Turusentimendile mõjus negatiivselt ka eile avaldatud ZEW indeksid (Saksamaa majandussentimendi indeks kolme aasta madalaimal tasemel). Lisaks liikusid turgudel jutud Prantsusmaa pankade ja riigi enda potentsiaalsest reitingu langetamisest.

    Makronäitajatest avaldatakse täna Suurbritannia töötururaport (kell 11.30) ja eurotsooni tarbijahinnaindeksid (kell 12). Lisaks avaldab Inglismaa keskpank kell 12.30 inflatsiooniraporti. USA sessioonil ilmuvad tarbijahinnaindeksid, kapitalivoogude raport ja oktoobrikuu tööstustoodangu andmed.

    Euro langes täna varahommikuks enam kui viie nädala põhjadesse $1,3430 tasemeni, kuid on praeguseks hetkeks taastunud ja kaupleb avanemistaseme $1,3530 juures.
  • Eurotsooni inflatsioon oktoobrikuus +3,0% ehk sama mis esialgne näit, core CPI +1,6%
  • Inglise keskpank tõdeb tänases raportis, et lähiaja kasv saab olema nõrgem kui arvati augustis ning inflatsioon kukub järgmisel aastal järsult ära, mis annab ruumi täiendavaks QE-ks. Raportit on võimalik lugeda siit
    GBP on dollari vastu pisut järgi andmas ning kaupleb -0,5% madalamal.

  • Päris hea kokkuvõttev tabel Deutsche Bankilt osade eurotsooni riikide järgmise aasta laenuvajaduste kohta. Koguvajadus sõltub siis 2012 aeguvate võlakohustuste refinantseerimisest ja valitsuste 2012 eelarve puudujäägi katmisest
  • Kreeka majandus kukkus kolmandas kvartalis -5,2% ning kuna suvekuud on üldjuhul sessoonselt kõige tugevam periood, siis saab neljas kvartal erinevate kärbete tõttu tõenäoliselt veel keerulisem olema ega võimalda saavutada eelarves arvestatud -5,5%list langust. Via ekathimerini

    In what is traditionally the strongest period of the year - due to the fact that July, August and September usually see a strong contribution from tourism - the economy shrank 5.2 percent, bringing the total rate of GDP contraction for the year to September to 7 percent.
    For the year’s final quarter, pressure on the real economy is expected to grow, as austerity measures will be depriving the already staggering market of yet more capital. For the 5.5 percent target to be met, the contraction will need to shrink to just 1 percent in the year’s fourth quarter.
  • Kui eile õhtul kauplesid S&P500 indeksi futuurid 1255 punkti juures, siis täna varahommikuks olid need kukkunud 1238 punkti juurde. Viimase 5 tunni jooksul on jõutud sealt vahepeal tõusta 1258 punktini, uuesti langetud 1239 punktini ning praeguseks tõustud 1248 punktini. Ühe päeva jooksul seega 20+ punkti liikumist (üle 1.5%) kaks korda alla ja üks kord üles... ja seda kõike siis alles veel enne turu ametlikku avamist.
  • Et mõne eurotsooni riigi võlakirja yield taas uusi tippe teeb ja vahe Saksamaa vastava võlakirja tulususega järjest suuremaks käriseb, on küll kujunenud juba igapäevaseks topicucs aga siiski....Hispaania võlakirjaturgu täna kollitamas kuulujutud, et sarnaselt Itaalaiale kavatsetakse tõsta ka seal tagatismäärasid
    Hispaania 10 võlakirja yield
  • Joeli jutu jätkuks üks Bespoke'i graafik. Erinevaid Euroopa võlakriisi lahendusi ja muid uudiseid saatnud rallid on viimaste nädalate jooksul muutunud järjest lühemaks, jäädes põhimõtteliselt juba päevasisesteks liikumisteks. See on tõmmanud kauplemisvahemiku järjest koomale, mis peaks tehnilisest aspektist lõpuks päädima suurema üles- või allapoole liikumisega
  • PTEC.L täna hirmsasti peksa saamas -6,55% kandis kaupleb hetkel. Any comments? Joel?
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VELT +5.7% (light volume), TGT +3%, ADSK +2.8%, TYC +2.6%, (ticking higher).

    M&A news: JAG +56.8% (Shandong Gold Mining is offering $9.30/share in cash for JAG, according to reports).

    Other news: BIOF +5.9% (light volume, continued strength), BPAX +5.6% (reports positive libigel pharmacokinetic study results), NG +5% (says Gregory Lang has accepted the position of President and CEO of NovaGold effective Jan 2012; co announced spin-out of Ambler to shareholders of NovaGold and re-iterated its objective to unlock the value of NovaGold's copper assets), AMRN +3.3% (reported Phase 3 MARINE study results presented), CLNE +3% (continued strength following yesterday's ~2 point pop higher), GTAT +1.4% (ticking higher, announces $100m share buyback authorization; sets accelerated repurchase of $75m in shares).

    Analyst comments: RIMM +2.4% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ZOOM -14% (thinly traded), ANF -10.8%, ASYS -7.2%, DANG -5.4% (light volume), CNQR -3.8%, DELL -2.6% (also downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at FBN Securities), BOBE -2.1%, A -2%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: NBG -4.1%, RBS -3.4%, PUK -2.2%, HBC -2.1%, MS -1.1%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: RIO -3.0%, GOLD -2.5%, BHP -2.4%, BBL -2.4%, MT -1.4%, HMY -1.3%, SLV -0.8%, SLW -0.7%, GLD -0.5%.

    A few oil/gas related names showing early weakness: RDS.A -1%, BP -0.7%, E -0.6%.

    Other news: FTWR -37.4% (announced it missed interest payment on 9.00% convertible senior secured notes due 2012; Co Q3 estimates impairment charges relating to its long-lived assets and FCC licenses to be in the range of $150 to $170 mln), IDIX -9.1% (announces proposed public offering of common stock), OZM -7.6% (files for a mixed shelf offering for an undisclosed amount and announces public offering of $250 million of Class A Shares), UNIS -7.1% (announces proposed public offering of common stock), FRO -4.4% (still checking), RCL -2.9% and CCL -2.0% (still checking for anything specific), SAP -2.2% (still checking), CTL -1.4% (Cramer discussed on MadMoney), PCRX -1.2% (announces pricing of follow-on offering at $6.50/share), AREX -1% (announces pricing of common stock offering at $28.00).

    Analyst comments: CIM -3.9% (downgraded to Sell at Wunderlich), COO -2.7% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital), GERN -2.3% (ticking lower, downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, downgraded to Speculative Buy at WBB Securities), SLRC -1.2% (light volume, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo).
  • October Headline CPI Y/Y +3.5%; Core CPI Y/Y +2.1%
    October CPI M/M -0.1% vs 0.0% Briefing.com consensus
    October Core CPI M/M +0.1% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus

  • David Einhorn, kes mingi aeg tagasi presenteeris investoritele (vaata siit)põhjused, miks ta on lühike GMCR-s ja sellega vallandas tõsise müügisurve aktsiale, tõdeb Greenlight Capitali kuukirjas, et sell-side analüütikute ja ettevõtte juhtkonna tagasiside on jäänud pärast seda suhteliselt tagasihoidlikuks, kuid mõni žest siiski tehti.

    After our presentation, one of the largest GMCR shareholders sent us a Keurig coffee brewer and ten K-cup boxes of coffee straight from the warehouse. Not only did we appreciate the gesture, it was nice of them to assist in our field research, as the majority of the K-cups were too close to expiration to be sold through normal retail channels.

  • jaan71,

    Ausalt öeldes midagi rabavat silma küll ei hakka. Tänane uudis on vaid see, et edaspidi kasutab Playtech oma brokeri ja NOMADina (ehk siis nõustajana) ainult Collins Stewartit. Link. Varasemalt oli neil ka Deutsche Bank selles nimekirjas. Langusele võisid kaasa aidata ka tehnilistest tasemetest läbikukkumine ja mitme aasta põhjadele liikumine. Pikaajalises plaanis on vaja ettevõttel nüüd näidata, et neid painanud probleemid (eelkõige William Hillis ja senine kohatine määramatus tulevikuplaanides) on selja taga ja selleks on vaja näidata häid finantstulemusi. Selle kvartali tulemused olid minu arvates igati okeid. Eriti kui aktsia hinnataset vaadata. Risk-rewardi seisukohast tundub mulle, et tasuks olla siin pikaajaliselt ostupoolel. Nüüd tuleb aga oodata ära järgmise kvartali tulemused ja loota, et ka need oleksid okeid. Seni aga võibki aktsia närviliselt liikuda - eriti kui vaadata, mida turud tervikuna praegusel ajal teevad.
  • The Wall of Worry Won't Come Down
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Nov 16, 2011 | 8:57 AM

    "The best things in life are unexpected -- because there were no expectations." --Eli Khamarov

    It would be nice to start the day without the market jumping around to the latest news out of Europe. Unfortunately, today is not that day. We have a number of developments in Europe, including an Italian bank asking the European Central Bank for funding. That is causing early volatility.

    The good news is that the market has been shrugging off the latest worries in Europe once trading begins. We are still highly sensitive to headlines, but market players have consistently used the pullbacks as buying opportunities. They are not panicking over negative news, although the issues in Europe continue to be formidable.

    Tuesday was a good example of how strong the underlying support continues to be. The market drifted lower on light volume all morning and was about to take out the lows of the day when it suddenly turned up on no apparent news. Once it started to tick up, the buyers jumped in quickly and we rallied all afternoon before a little profit-taking at the close.

    The fact that there was no news catalyst leads me to conclude that a lot of bulls are underinvested and worried that they will miss out on further upside.

    This is the wall of worry that I've been talking about lately. Market players don't buy because they feel bullish, but because they have been bearish and are worried they may be wrong and the market may run up without them. Every time we find some support and start to tick up, the folks on the sidelines rush to join the party, just in case.

    In addition to the wall of worry, I've also been discussing the favorable technical pattern that has been developing. Since breaking out of a two-month trading range in mid-October, we have been consolidating nicely and have a good setup from which to attempt a run at recent highs over the S&P 500's 200-day simple moving average at 1271.

    Helene Meisler pointed out yesterday that this bullish-looking symmetrical triangle in the indices is becoming almost too obvious. Everyone sees it just like everyone sees all the negatives out of Europe. Typically, when something is too obvious, it undermines the validity of the pattern because folks tend to act in an anticipatory manner, and that means there are fewer buyers to fulfill the pattern.

    The real question is whether market players are overly confident about a year-end rally and are already heavily long. The way the market has been acting lately, I don't have the sense that market players are well positioned for upside. In fact, I believe they are underinvested and worried about Europe, and that is offsetting any optimism about the favorable technical patterns.

    In other words, I believe we still have a wall of worry firmly in place, and that is reflected in the bullish technical pattern. Market players aren't overly optimistic; they are worried about missing out and that is more likely to make the pattern play out rather than fail.

    I'm always ready to change my thesis as the price action develops, but for now I'm going to continue to lean bullish. We are likely to be choppy, but I'm looking for the dip buyers to continue support. I'd be much more optimistic if I had a longer list of potential buys, but the fact that there aren't that many is probably why we are seeing the wall of worry.

    We have a little softness to start the day, which will be a good test to see how anxious dip buyers are to grab some long exposure.
  • October Capacity Utilization 77.8% vs 77.7% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 77.3% from 77.4%
    October Industrial Production +0.7% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to -0.1% from +0.2%

  • Halt oli ilmselt automaatne, sest aktsia hüppas 1 punkti (15%)
  • Imelik, et ONTY tegi samal ajal sama järsu spike'i. Kahjuks ei jälginud, kas seal ka kauplemine katkestati. Kui nüüd mingit uudist ei tule, siis ilmselt vajub tagasi.
  • OK, see tuli samal ajal:
    (ONTY) Oncothyreon price target raised to $31 from $15 at Wedbush theflyonthewall.com
  • Fitch says Eurozone contagion poses threat to U.S. bank rating outlook; U.S. banks have manageable direct exposures but further contagion poses a serious risk
  • DJIA lõpetas 1,57%, S&P500 1,66% ja Nasdaq 1,73% miinuspoolel. Euro ja teised "riskivaluutad" ka hetkel tugeva surve all.
  • Prantsusmaa 10-aastase võlakirja intress täna 3.7%. Koostasin alloleva krediidireitingute ja riiklike võlakirjade nominaalintressi graafiku, mis näitab, et Prantsusmaa AAA krediidireitingut (S&P) on üha raskem põhjendada.

  • EUR 3 kuu Basis Swap moodustamas uusi põhju. Sisuliselt indikeerib graafik dollarites finantseerimise kulukuse määra Euroopas. Mäletatavasti teatas ECB septembris mitmest programmist, et dollari likviidsust tagada, kuid novembris on olukord uue pöörde võtnud.

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