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Börsipäev 1. detsember

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  • Uudiste pealevool on viimase 24 tunni jooksul olnud tõepoolest pidurdamatu, osa sellest positiivne (Saksamaa tööpuuduse vähenemine, USA ADP küstilus ja Chicago PMI), teine pool aga (eelkõige keskpankade koordineeritud samm) pigem küsitav. Euroopa pankade viimase aja finantseerimisraskusi arvesse võttes on likviidsustugi kahtlemata vajalik, võimaldades odavamate dollarswappidega süsteemist veidi survet välja lasta aga kui võtta pisut pessimistlikum vaatenurk, siis peegeldab otsus arvatust vahest isegi kriitilisemat olukorda rahaturgudel ning ohtu, et keerulisemad ajad on alles ees.

    Öösel avalikustatud Hiina töötleva tööstuse PMI näit oli novembris tõepoolest oodatust nõrgem, alanedes oktoobri 50.4 punkti pealt 49.0 punktini, kui analüütikute konsensus prognoosis 49.7. Lisaks korrigeeriti HSBC PMI näit 48.0 pealt 47.7 peale. Mõlemad on nüüdseks vajunud madalaimale tasemele alates 2009.a algusest. Sentimenti Aasia börsidel pole see siiski rikkunud tänu Hiina keskpanga eilsele kohustusliku resevimääära langetamisele ning võimsale rohelisele lainetusele globaalsetel börsidel: Shanghai Composite +2,3%, Hang Seng +5,5%, Nikkei +1,9%.

    Mõned olulisemad makronäitajad ja muud sündmused tänasest päevast:

    11.00 Eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse novembri lõplik PMI
    11.30 Suurbritannia töötleva tööstuse novembri PMI
    ??.?? Prantsusmaa ja Hispaania võlakirjaoksjonid
    15.30 USA möödunud nädala esmaste töötuabiraha taotluste arv
    17.00 USA novembri töötleva tööstuse ISM
  • Eurotsooni PMI jäi samaks võrreldes esialgse hinnanguga

    Eurozone Final Manuf PMI 46.4 vs 46.4 prelim
  • UK töötleva tööstuse PMI arvatust pisut parem. Novembri PMI 47,6 vs oodatud 47,0 (oktoobris 47,8).
  • OpenTable (OPEN) teatas eile, et kavatseb tagasi osta $ 50 miljoni eest aktsiaid.

    OPEN, mis oli pikka aega turuosaliste seas tuntud kui kiire kasvuga ettevõte ja hea kauplemisaktsia, on tänaseks oma hiilguse minetanud. Aktsia, mis alles käesoleva aasta mais maksis $ 110 on tänaseks kaotanud oma väärtusest üle 65% ja kaupleb $ 35 taseme kandis.

    Morgan Stanley peab antud uudist heaks, mis saadab investoritele positiivse sõnumi. Analüütikute hinnangul on ettevõtte tuleviku ette prognoosimine hetkel veel keeruline, sest pooleli on mitmed arendusprotsessid ning laienemised Saksamaal ja Jaapanis, aga aktsiate tagasiost on vähemalt hea algus.

    Given that OpenTable`s opportunities to deploy growth capital are being crimped by 1) toptable acquisition integration and 2) establishing international presence in Germany / developing Japan. We are incrementally positive on the company’s decision to use shareholder capital to repurchase shares at current valuations (11.3x our 2012E EBITDA estimate).
    Investment thesis: Domestic restaurant growth and per seated diner monetization still needs to be sorted out, and the international story is still a work in progress. We believe there are buyers of the stock on incremental positives – we view this announcement as one such positive.


  • tänased võlakirjaoksjonite tulemused
    Hispaania
    Sells EUR1.2bln in 3.0% April 2015; Avg Yield 5.187% vs 3.639% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.7x vs 2.1x; Maximum Yield 5.2203% vs 3.662%
    Sells EUR1.15 bln in 4.25% Oct 2016; Avg Yield 5.276% vs 4.848% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.83x vs 1.62x; max yield: 5.280% vs 4.885% prior
    Sells EUR1.4bln in 3.80% Jan 2017; Avg Yield 5.544% vs 4.782% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.69x v 1.80x; Max Yield 5.560% v 4.827% prior


    Prantsusmaa
    Sells EUR595 mln in 3.75 Apr 2017 ; Avg Yield 2.42% vs 2.34% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.40x vs 1.72x prior
    Sells EUR1.571 bln in 3.25% Oct 2021; Avg Yield 3.18% vs 3.25% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.05x vs 3.25x prior
    Sells EUR1.1 bln in 3.50% Apr 2026; Avg Yield 3.65% vs 3.77% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.24x v 2.60x prior
    Sells EUR1.08 bln in 4.50% Apr 2041; Avg Yield 3.94%; Bid-to-cover: 2.26x vs 2.22x prior


  • Värskem intervjuu Marc Faberiga, kus ta tõdeb, et on Aasias näinud viimasel ajal selget ärikliima jahtumist. Link
  • Bid-to-cover numbrid on nii Hispaania kui Prantsusmaa oksjonitel seekord ikka väga tugevad ja näitavad, et tänastes oludes selliste võlakirjatulususte pealt ostjaid leidub.
  • LULU teatas täna oma kolmanda kvartali tulemused, mis on ootustele küll vastavad, aga turuosaliste jaoks jääb siiski väheks, sest aktsia on eelturul kauplemas 5% miinuspoolel, $ 47 kandis.

    $LULU Q3 EPS 27c, beats by 2c, sales $230.2M, comps up 16%; sees Q4 EPS 40-42c, vs. cons. 42c, sales $327-$332M, vs. cons. $327M
  • Kas trend on jälle pöördunud?

    Continuing Claims rises to 3.740 mln from 3.705 mln
    Initial Claims 402K vs 390K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 396K from 393K


  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/SSS: GIL -16.2%, LULU -11.5%, SMTC -4.5%, FNSR -3.5%, RUE -3.5%, TGT -2.8%, GES -1.8%, ARO -1.4%, EXPR -0.4%, .

    Select financial related names showing weakness: IRE -3.2%, BCS -2.4%, UBS -1.8%, ING -1%, DB -0.4%, .

    Other news: STNG -16.7% (announced public offering of 7 mln shares of its common stock), TRS -4.5% (light volume, announced sale of 2,000,000 shares of common stock by stockholder), HEP -3.6% (announced public offering of 1,400,000 common units), NYMT -3.5% (announced public offering of 3 mln shares of common stock), ROIC -3.2% (announced that it plans to offer 6,500,000 shares of common stock in an underwritten public offering), PLOW -3.1% (priced 1,996,479 shares of common stock by certain of its stockholders at $14.75 per share).

    Analyst comments: PNM -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust), TUP -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust).
  • Dec 1 (Reuters) - Early reports by big U.S. retailers showed November sales were better than expected, buoyed by a strong turnout on "Black Friday," the busiest shopping day of the year.
    Shoppers shrugged off economic concerns to buy gifts as well as shop for themselves, giving a big lift-off to the holiday shopping season. Five of the six retailers tracked by Thomson Reuters that have reported November sales so far have beaten expectations.
    Total retail sales for the weekend reached an estimated $52.4 billion, up from $45 billion last year, according to the National Retail Federation
    Still, many people turned out only for special offers, such as 50 percent off store-wide, so retailers' margins could be under pressure if they continue to resort to deep discounts to entice buying.
    Retailers now must do what they can to see profitable gains for the rest of the holiday season -- a difficult task as many industry watchers expect that shoppers under financial stress will hold back after their weekend binge.
    Sales at stores open at least a year, or same-store sales, were expected to rise an average of 3.1 percent at 22 chains tracked by Thomson Reuters. In November 2010, such sales jumped 5.5 percent
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/SSS: CWTR +10%, MOV +9.3% (light volume), LTD +3.2%, SNPS +1.5% (also announced to acquire Magma Design Automation for $7.35/Magma share in cash), TD +0.8% (also mentioned positively on MadMoney).

    M&A news: LAVA +25.9% (Synopsys to acquire Magma Design Automation for $7.35/Magma share in cash), YHOO +3.8% (following report from Bloomberg.com noting Alibaba-led group preparing bid for all of YHOO).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: VALE +1.5%, MT +0.9%, SLV +0.8%, .

    A few European drug names are trading higher: NVS +2.3%, SNY +1.2%, AZN +0.4%.

    Other news: TSPT +22.9% (Transcept Pharma announces Purdue's exercise of option to commercialize Intermezzo in the US), AGO +13.4% (Assured Guaranty's Operating Subsidiaries' S&P Ratings Revised to AA- With Rating Outlooks Revised to Stable), AMR +12.5% (still checking for anything specific), TEVA +2.1% (portion of the profits from Ranbaxy's sales of Atorvastatin Calcium Tablets during Ranbaxy's 180-day first-to-file exclusivity period, will be paid to Teva), TASR +1.3% (light volume, received four orders for its innovative evidence capture and management platform), DIS +1.3% (increases annual cash dividend by 50% YoY to $0.60/share), RIG +0.7% (priced $1.0 bln of 5.050% Senior Notes due 2016, $1.2 blnof 6.375% Senior Notes due 2021, and $300 mln of 7.350% Senior Notes due 2041).

    Analyst comments: LCC +5.9% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays), USG +1% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital).
  • Counting On Consolidation
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Dec 01, 2011 | 8:38 AM EST | Add a comment

    "Rest: the sweet sauce of labor."

    -- Plutarch

    Now that the S&P 500 has jumped over 7.5% in the last three days, the big question is whether this is an uptrend that will gain further momentum or just a big bounce that will trap overanxious bulls who chased the move.

    Market players have been extremely gloomy and underinvested recently, which set the stage for a big move when we were suddenly hit by positive news out of both Europe and Asia. Many are still very skeptical of the situation in Europe, but the market insists on celebrating every news event about any European solution to such a degree that you can't just ignore it. Even if it turns out that the latest news is not as good as it appears, you can bet that we'll have some other positive event very soon.

    My thesis has been that the combination of skepticism, poor positioning and positive seasonality should set us up for an upward bias into the end of the year. In addition, I'm looking for a repeat of the he low-volume V-shaped moves we had in October and last December. The market keeps finding ways to trend up despite all sorts of negatives, and I think the chances of climbing a wall of worry like that again are quite high.

    In the near term, we have to be looking for some consolidation. We have moved too big too fast, and bulls (who were trapped) and short-term traders (who caught the move) have to be thinking about locking in some gains. We have overhead resistance to deal with, and, even though the point move was big, it didn't have a lot of energy.

    If you just listened to the talking heads in the media recently, you would think that everyone is celebrating this huge move. The truth is that it has not been an easy market for most, especially if you are not a buy-and-hold type. The vast majority of this move occurred overnight, so if you weren't anticipatory and buying into weakness, you never had much of a chance to jump in. Even if you were highly reactive as the strength developed, there wasn't much meat left since the majority of the move was completed by the time the market opened.

    One thing I find quite notable recently is how much complaining there is by traders who focus on stock-picking. There has not been any clear leadership, themes or pockets of momentum in this market. It has all been highly correlated movement, and the way to play it was to simply focus on direction and look for vehicles that have high beta. Speculative trading of individual stocks has been extremely tough.

    The big danger with individual stock-picking is that even if you have a good pick, there isn't anything with relative strength. If the market rolls back over, the good stocks you bought are going to go with it. There is no safe place to hide. We are the mercy of overall market direction, which is fine if you want to play index ETFs but quite frustration for stock-pickers.

    I'm looking for some near-term weakness as we digest the recent gains. We'll see what the dip-buyers do, but, hopefully, a few days of consolidation will give us some better technical conditions with which to work. I don't believe we are going to roll over and quickly fall apart, but I don't know how folks who caught this move can resist taking some profits.
  • Erko Rebane
    Kas trend on jälle pöördunud?


    VIMOMBI NSHOM, ECONOMIST, IFR ECONOMICS, A UNIT OF THOMSON REUTERS:
    The moving average is still in good shape despite two weeks of movement upwards, at 395,750 it's just 500
    claims more than last week's average.
    "Unadjusted claims did fall (by 70k), but not to the extent to reduce the seasonally adjusted level. In fact, had NSA claims dropped by just 5k or 6k more (a revision that could be seen next week), initial claims would have been unchanged. Even though the recent inclines (a net of 10k) push the reading past 400k, claims' movement has been improving. Looking at its moving average, which does not fluctuate as strongly as the initial count, the sub-400k average has held for three weeks, and it's still better than the averages touching 420k in September.


  • William Blair analüüsimaja tõstab täna Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale
    GMCR aktsia on viimaste kuude jooksul kõvasti müüki näinud, millele andis avastardi kuulus investor Carl Icahn, öeldes, et on soetanud aktsias lühikese positsiooni, kuna firma raamatupidamine ei ole korras ja üldtunnustatud raamaptupidamisreegilitele vastas. See teadaanne vallandas aktsia korraliku müügisurve ja tänaseks on aktsia kaotanaud üle poole oma väärtusest.
    William Blair analüüsimaja analüütikud ütlevad, et firma viimane majandusaruanne oli esitatud korrekstelt ja audiitorite poolt heaks kiidetud.
    Lisaks on investoreid teinud ettevaatlikuks ka firma küsitav kasvupotentsiaal, kuna see on üsna sõltuv mitmest erinevast aspektist, mida on keeruline prognoosida. Analüütikud ei ürita väita, et nad oskaks firma kasvu ette prognoosida paremini kui teised, aga usuvad, et hetkel on nende arvates riski/kasumi suhe viimase kasuks ja hetkel viitavad märgid sellele, et ettevõte on võimeline kasvama nii see kui ka järgmine aasta.

    Conclusion. We raised our investment rating on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters to Outperform from Market Perform. We believe the residential coffee market continues to move toward single serve, as evidenced by steady and healthy market share improvement. While fiscal fourth-quarter sales were shy of expectations, end-demand for Keurig brewers and K-Cup portion packs—as reflected in data from the NPD Group and the SymphonyIRI Group, respectively—remains solid. Over time, as trade inventories normalize, brewer and K-Cup portion pack shipments should better mirror end-demand. And if end-demand remains healthy, which we believe it should, brewer and K-Cup portion pack shipments should eventually reflect these trends.

    Green Mountain recently filed its form 10-K for fiscal 2011, which was notable in that it was filed promptly and contained an unqualified (clean) opinion from the auditors. There has been much debate regarding the company’s long-term earnings power. This is understandable, as absolute earnings power is quite sensitive to variations in a few key assumptions, most notably the eventual size of installed base (for which
    only time will tell), K-Cup portion pack usage rates (which must be indirectly estimated), and the economics of partner relationships (which have not been specifically disclosed). We don’t profess to have the exact point estimate for any one of these individual earnings drivers. This said, it seems to us risk/reward tradeoff is reasonable under a range of earnings scenarios.

    More broadly, with greater perceived clarity on the recent divergence of sell-in (company’s reported shipments) and sell through (consumer takeaway at retail) and evidence of continued solid end-demand
    for Keurig brewers and K-Cup potion packs, we are more confident in the company’s ability to achieve forecast sales and earnings growth in fiscal 2012 and 2013. the month of October, may be an early indication that new partner brands—in this case Dunkin Donuts (DNKN $25.30)


    Aktsia kaupleb eelturul juba 3% kõrgemal ($ 54,00), aga võttes arvesse, et aktsiat on saatnud nüüd juba kuid äärmiselt negatiivne sentiment ja lühikeseksmüüjate armee, siis võiks GMCR täna ehk ostuhuvi leida.





  • Clearwire and Sprint Nextel (S) announced agreements potentially worth up to $1.6 bln over the next four years in payments for WiMAX services (CLWR is halted)
  • Vaikselt tilgub täna läbi ka automüüginumbreid. Chrysleril igal juhul päris korralik headline

    Chrysler Group LLC reports November 2011 U.S. sales increased 45% YoY to 107,172 units

  • Vaatamata süvenevale skepsisele maailmamajanduse tuleviku pärast, usub Goldman Sachs, et USA ettevõtete majandustulemuste paranemist see ei sega

    Goldman Sachs raises its 2012 S&P 500 EPS estimate to USD 100 from USD 98, and raises its 2011 S&P 500 EPS estimate to USD 97 from USD 96
  • ISM ootuspäraselt tugevam, isegi pärast eilset tõstetud prognoosi

    October Construction Spending +0.8% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus
    November ISM Index 52.7 vs 51.0 Briefing.com consensus; October 50.8
  • General Motors U.S. Sales up 7% YoY in November to 180,402 vehicles
  • Headlines crossing wires from IMF saying there are no discussions with Italy on any form of IMF financing
  • Headlines crossing that Massachusetts State AGs filing a law suit against BAC, C, JPM, WFC, and Ally Financial
  • Headlines crossing wires from German Chancellor Merkel, reiterating her stance against Euro Bonds, saying they are harmful at this stage
  • Swiss government may consider negative interest rates
  • Texas Industries spikes after one of the largest stockholders of the company agreed to terminate immediately the Standstill Agreement that prevented it from acquiring more than 20% of the outstanding common shares
  • AlariÜ
    Texas Industries spikes after one of the largest stockholders of the company agreed to terminate immediately the Standstill Agreement that prevented it from acquiring more than 20% of the outstanding common shares


    Turg oli äärmiselt efektiivne :)
  • To:ymeramees

    Mis sa BRCM callist arvad?
  • FBR Top Pick on vee all ja FBR soovitab enne analyst dayd avg paremaks teha? Laias laastus kõlas nii, ei usu ja osta isiklikult FBR-i.
  • Amazon.com pulls back in recent trade; pullback attributed to report that GOOG is developing a system for same-day or next-day shipping for online shoppers

    AMZN kiire kukkumise taga siis selline asi. AMZN on olnud viimastel päevadel turust selgelt raskem, kas kellegi oli juba varasemalt info käes?
  • BMW reports Nov US Sales rise 14.8% YoY to 26,271 vehicles

    Daimler AG's Mercedes-Benz unit reports Nov US sales rise 55.2% YoY to 28,255 vehicles

  • GMCR töötas peale avanemist täna kenasti. Aktsia avanes $ 53,97 ja liikus kohe ka kiirelt üles, käies ära üle $ 56 taseme. Hetkel on aktsia allapoole tagasi tulnud ja kaupleb $ 55 kandis.



  • Canadian Pacific: Pershing Square Capital Management discloses 12.4% stake in amended 13D filing
  • Netflix trades to highs on pickup in volume; strength attributed to CNBC blog post by Herb Greenberg suggesting Facebook could acquire co

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