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Börsipäev 5. detsember

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  • Nädalavahetusel on Itaalia avalikustanud info Monti kulukärbete ja maksutõusude paketi esimese osa kohta, mis näeb järgmise kolme aasta jooksul ette netona 20 miljardi euro ulatuses kasinusmeetmeid (30 miljardi euro ulatuses kärpeid ning 10 miljardi euro ulatuses stimuleerivaid meetmeid). See peaks olema eriti meeltmööda Merkelile, kes värskemate meediaraportite kohaselt oleks nõus laskma Euroopa Keskpangal võlakirjaturgudele aktiivsemalt sekkuda, kui Euroopa liidrid nõustuvad rakendama ranget eelarvekontrolli. Aasia on öösel liikunud erisuunaliselt, kuid USA futuurid kauplevad kuni 0,9% plusspoolel.

    Käesoleval nädalal saab olema võrdlemisi oluline katse peatada Euroopa võlakriisi, üritades viia euroala lähemale fiskaalsele liidule. Täna kohtuvad Pariisis Merkel ja Sarkozy, et antud teemal mõtteid vahetada ning vahest kuuleme reedesel tippkohtumisel lauale pandavatest ettepanekutest midagi juba täna. Lisaks toimub neljapäeval Euroopa Keskpanga igakuine kohtumine, kellelt oodataks intressimäära langetamist ning täiendavate finantsturgu toetavate abinõude väljakuulutamist.

    Tänasest makrost võiks välja tuua järgmised uudised:

    11.00 Eurotsooni novembri teenindussektori PMI
    11.30 Suurbritannia novembri teenindussektori PMI
    12.00 Eurotsooni oktoobrikuu jaemüük
    17.00 USA novembri teenindussektori ISM
    17.00 USA tehaste tellimuste oktoobri muutus
  • Ühest küljest peab reedene ettepanek olema turgude jaoks piisavalt muljetavaldav, teisest küljest aga jällegi piisavalt tagasihoidlik, et see Iirimaa seaduste kohaselt ei nõuaks rahvahääletust. FT kirjutab, et kui Euroopa Liidu lepingute muutuste ettepanekud on ulatuslikud, siis see nõuab Iirimaa rahva arvamust ning meenutades Lissaboni lepingu heakskiidu saagat, võidakse õhku visata taas paras ports määramatust.

    With unemployment at 14.5 per cent and a further €12.4bn in austerity measures planned over the next four years, the government would likely face a large protest vote in any referendum. An opinion poll published by The Irish Times in October showed 47 per cent would vote against a proposal to amend the Lisbon treaty while just 28 per cent said they would vote.

    Compared to when the Lisbon treaty was voted on for a second time in 2009, there are now significantly more Eurosceptic members in the Irish parliament. Sinn Féin has more than tripled its representation to 14 members of parliament, the United Left Alliance has five members and there are more than 20 independent members- many of who would campaign against treaty change.
  • Täna avalikustatud Hispaania makro midagi rõõmustavat ei paku

    Spanish Services PMI (Nov) M/M 36.8 vs. Prev. 41.8, lowest since March 2009
    Spanish Industrial Output WDA (Oct) Y/Y -4.0% vs. Exp. -1.8% (Prev. -1.8%, Rev. to -1.4%)
  • Eurotsooni teenindussektori novembri lõplik PMI kujunes flash näitajast pisut tagasihoidlikumaks, olles 47,8 asemel 47,5. Kui näiteks Prantsusmaa ja Itaalia näitajaid korrigeeriti ülespoole, siis nõrkust näitas just Saksamaa...German Services PMI (Nov F) M/M 50.3 vs. Exp. 51.4 (Prev. 50.6)
  • UK Services PMI (Nov) M/M 52.1 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 51.3)
  • Eurotsooni jaemüük vähenes aasta baasil -0,4%, kui analüütikute konsensus ootas -0,8%list langust
  • Business Insideri vahendusel võib lugeda, et tarbijad on internetiteel sisseoste tehes üsna heldekäelised, sest möödunud nädalal ulatus USA internetipoodide käive rekordilise $ 6 miljardini.
    Küberesmaspäeval ehk Cyber Monday`l tehti läbi ajaloo suurima käibega ostupäev üldse, mil kaupu osteti $ 1,25 miljardi eest.

    On Cyber Monday itself, sales reached $1.25 billion, the biggest online shopping day in history. Online sales on Tuesday and Wednesday also broke $1 billion.
    Cyber Monday sales topped $1 billion for the first time last year.
    ComScore says online sales are up 15 percent to $18.7 billion in November and the first two days of December, compared with the same period last year.

  • Täna hommikul teatas SAP AG (SAP), et võtab üle SuccessFactors (SFSF)-i hinnaga $ 40 aktsia eest ehk 52% preemiaga.

    SuccessFactors to be acquired by SAP (SAP) for $40 per share (26.25 )
    SAP AG (SAP) and SuccessFactors (SFSF) announced that SAP's subsidiary, SAP America, has entered into a definitive merger agreement with SuccessFactors in SAP would offer to acquire all outstanding shares of common stock of SuccessFactors for $40.00 per share in cash, representing a 52% premium over its Dec 2 closing price and an enterprise value of ~$3.4 bln.


    Kõnealune tehing võib täna tekitada keskmisest suuremat huvi ka SFSF konkurentide vastu ja mitmed analüütikud on omalt poolt ka mõned nimed välja pakkunud.

    RBC analüütikud usuvad, et viimastel aastatel on sektoris konsolideerumine olnud märgatav ning nad eeldavad, et see trend jätkub. Sellest tulenevalt usuvad, et kõrgendatud tähelepanu leiavad täna nii Taleo (TLEO) ja Kenexa (KNXA).

    Consolidation theme likely to continue. Consolidation in the sector has beenprevalent over the past few years and we do not expect it to stop. The mostnotable change recently has been the willingness for the traditional enterprisesoftware companies to further their cloud initiatives with acquisitions of SaaScompanies. We would expect the other HCM vendors, such as Taleo and Kenexa,to trade higher on this news. Also in the group is Cornerstone. It is also likely thatother SaaS companies rally on the M&A news as the takeout multiple helps tosupport their high valuations and also indicates that large companies are willingto pay big premiums to acquire these high-growth companies

    Jefferies analüütikud näevad täna turuosaliste huvi kasvu Concur (CNQR) ja Ariba (ARBA) vastu.

    [i]Could there be more M&A to come in SaaS? Despite investors thinking ORCL'sacquisition of RNOW was a one-off, we now have an even bigger SaaS deal. Other HCMvendors will likely catch a bid, but other SaaS domains not well addressed by big apps guyscould also see interest, e.g. Concur (CNQR) or Ariba (ARBA).[/i]

    ROTH tõstab ARBA reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale koos $ 36 hinnasihiga.

    We're upgrading Ariba from a Neutral to a Buy and increasing our pricetarget to $36; we expect that SAP's acquisition of SuccessFactors willdrive additional investor enthusiasm on SaaS names in general andAriba in particular, and we like other recent dynamics including its b-process acquisition, more conservative guidance, and a meaningfuldecline in the stock price.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DG +3.4%, MO +1.2%, MET +1.1%.

    M&A related: SFSF +52.4% (SuccessFactors to be acquired by SAP (SAP) for $40 per share), PSS +9.5% (Collective Brands ticking higher following NYPost story suggesting potential M&A).

    Select financial related names showing strength: LYG +10.5%, BCS +5.4%, STD +5%, ING +4.9%, IRE +4.1%, BAC +2.8%, MS +2.7%, CS +2.6%, DB +2.3%, HBC +2.2%, C +2.2%, UBS +1.6%, .

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: RIG +4.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital), SD +2.%, SDRL +2.6%, E +2.5%, WFT +2.3%, CHK +1.8%, NBR +1.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital), BP +1.2%, XOM +1.1%, RDS.A +0.4%.

    A few shipping names are seeing early strength: FRO +19.7%, NAT +7.1%, OSG +2.6%

    Other news: VVUS +3.2% (light volume, reported that in the study Avanafil met all endpoints), SPLS +2.6% (Staples ticking higher, early strength attributed to positive mention in Barron's), ETR +0.3% (to divest and merge electric transmission business into ITC Holdings; expected to be immediately value accretive to ITC shareholders).

    Analyst comments: TLEO +10.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets), CLF +3.9% (initiated with a Buy at Goldman), GM +1.3% (initiated with a Neutral at Piper).
  • Gapping down
    M&A related: FSIN -3.5% (Fu and AGC terminates going private transaction for $9.25/share after it did not receive response - amended 13D filing), SAP -1.7% (SuccessFactors to be acquired by SAP for $40 per share).

    Other news: REGN -4.8% (reports two year results of Phase 3 Studies with EYLEAInjection in wet AMD show sustained improvement in visual acuity), RIMM -1.9% and NOK -1.6% (still checking).

    Analyst comments: ADSK -0.9% (ticking lower, downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), CVC -0.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo).
  • Delphi Automotive (DLPH): Paulson & Co. discloses 15.8% stake in 13G filing out late after the close on Friday

  • Blogipidaja Notable Calls juhib täna tähelepanu BTIG analüüsimaja callile. BTIG alustab täna kindlustusfirma Assured Guaranty (AGO) katmist Osta reitinguga ja $ 35 hinnasihiga, mis on ka konsenuse kõrgeim hinnasiht.

    NotableCalls: $AGO Assured Guaranty initiated w/ Buy & a whopping $35 tgt @ BTIG. Same firm that initiated on MBI last week and caused a major move.

    Hetkel kaupleb AGO eelturul $ 12,40 kandis, 10% plusspoolel.
  • Your Choices Are Limited
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Dec 05, 2011 | 8:55 AM

    "Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence." --Vince Lombardi

    As we kick off the week, the market is looking for its fourth big opening gap to the upside in the last six trading days. Again, positive news out of Europe is driving the action. This time it is general optimism as Italian bond yields fall as Merkel and Sarkozy agree that tough austerity measures are needed in Europe.

    While it is a refreshing change to have a steady flow of positive news and greater optimism, it has been extremely challenging to position for this action. We went from complete disappointment to euphoria with nary a pause. If you had been correctly defensive a week ago, you have not had an easy time trying to add back long exposure. In fact, we went from overbought to oversold so quickly that I suspect some over-aggressive shorts are a bit panicky this morning.

    So what do you do if you are underinvested? Do you chase this market or fight it?

    First, let's deal with if you should be shorting. While we are rather frothy, and some fading after a gap up open would not be a surprise, a market that moves up this big and this fast doesn't suddenly fall apart. There is always the chance of surprise news, but this sort of action creates a huge amount of underlying support. There are legions of underinvested bulls who want in and they are praying for some weakness to buy. What adds to the anxiety is that the year is rapidly drawing to a close, and many money managers are desperate for performance to keep pace with their benchmarks.

    If you really want to short into this sort of strength you need to pay attention to how often in the last couple of years this market has been overbought and became even more overbought before finally slowing down. The smart move has been to wait for weakness before trying the dark side rather than anticipating a top. Top-calling has probably been the biggest losing strategy in this market since the lows in March 2009.

    Even if you have maintained a bullish bias for the past week or so, this market has not been easy. Momentum traders like Gil Morales say that there have been no follow-through days and no real leaders, which hasn't given aggressive traders much to do.

    One of the characteristics of this action that continues to make it tough for traders is that it is still very highly correlated action. Individual stock picking continues to yield any real advantage. We are seeing a little sector action in groups like oil, but overall the way to play this market has been to buy the leveraged exchange-traded funds and ride them long and hard. If you are looking for relative performance in individual stocks, you are likely having difficulties.

    Our choices are limited. We can stay focused on playing overall market direction with ETFs or, if we want to buy individual stocks, we have to chase some things that may not be set up well, or we stay patient and wait for leadership and charts to develop better. Waiting for good charts has proven to be costly, which, ironically, tends to make less attractive setups work even better as buyers act out of frustration rather than logic.

    I've seldom seen a market that makes a move as big as we've had recently with so little excitement and enthusiasm. I believe that this is a function of basic market changes that are likely to continue. We can't wait for the sort of mood that was common a few years ago to return. Markets are trading differently now for a variety of reasons, and it means we have to adapt. It is not easy to do, but the most important thing is to recognize that things are different and think a little differently.
  • Imaxi (IMAX) aitas täna tehniliselt olulisest $20 tasemest läbi murda Stifel Nicolause poolt antud soovituse tõstmine "hoia" pealt "osta" peale koos $25lise hinnasihiga.

    Briefingust:

    Stifel Nicolaus upgrades IMAX to Buy from Hold and sets target price at $25 saying they believe that the company will likely, with the 4Q11 earnings, increase their screen installation guidance for 2012 and establish a strong outlook for 2012. Firm says the flat backlog for most of 2011 would indicate that growth is slowing. However, when looking more carefully at the composition of the backlog, that the backlog moved out of 2013 into 2012 is a sign of a firming backlog. As we enter 2012, the firm expects that the backlog for 2013 increases as exhibitors plan around a year out for such installations.
  • ISM pisut nõrgem, kuid turgu liigutamas pigem Merkeli ja Sarkozy kommentaarid

    Nov. ISM Services 52.0 vs. 53.4 Briefing.com consensus; prior 52.9
    Oct. Factory Orders -0.4% vs. -0.4% Briefing.com consensus; prior +0.3%

  • See EL alusleppe muutmine on üks Kolgata tee - kui see ka ükskord sünnib, siis eelneb sellele aastaid vaidlusi. Kui Merkozy kokkulepe seniks mingeid olukorda leevendavaid lahendusi ei paku (ja seda just ECB rolli silmas pidades), siis järgneb sellele see, mis on järgnenud kõikidele eelmistele kriisikokkulepetele.
  • IMAX oli ses mõttes huvitav, et Stifeli analüütik on sektoris olnud pigem negatiivse vaatega, mis ug mõju suurendab. Erinevalt näiteks piiberist või dzeipimorganist, kes defendidega klentide raha viimasel aastal tuulde on lasknud.
  • Merkozy pidas kõnet:
    -- Germany and France push for monthly #Eurozone leaders' summit "as long as crisis lasts"
    -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy: We want a new treaty, it will include non-compliance sanctions & completely respect national sovereignty
    -- Sarkozy, Merkel: We want a new treaty, whether with entire EU or just #eurozone
    -- What has happened in #eurozone "must never happen again, that is why we want a new treaty" -France's President Sarkozy

    Läheb leppe muutmiseks.
  • IMF approves $2.2 bln loan tranche for Greece - CNBC
  • FT.com reports S&P has warned Germany and the five other triple A members of the eurozone that they risk having their top-notch ratings downgraded as a result of deepening economic and political turmoil in the single currency bloc
  • AlariÜ
    FT.com reports S&P has warned Germany and the five other triple A members of the eurozone that they risk having their top-notch ratings downgraded as a result of deepening economic and political turmoil in the single currency bloc


    Maailmavalitsejad on jälle rääkinud - uskumatlult kõva on see reitingubusiness. Need on nagu see tsirkuse raamatupidaja, kellest juba FIX laulis...
  • S&P to place all 17 EU nations on ratings downgrade watch negative - Bloomberg TV
  • AlariÜ
    S&P to place all 17 EU nations on ratings downgrade watch negative - Bloomberg TV


    Enne 9-ndat on ikka kõik bazuukad välja toodud...
  • EUs on rohkem kui 17 nationsit, vast ikka Eurozone nations.

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