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Börsipäev 12. detsember

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Nii palju kui nädalavahetusel sai erinevaid artikleid ja newslettereid loetud, siis domineerima jäi ikkagi arvamus, et reedene ELi tippkohtumine on väike samm edasi, mitte jõulisem hüpe, mida loodeti näha. Ühest küljest plaanitakse rakendada jõulisemat eelarvekontrolli, ent teisest küljest pole jätkuvalt mehhanismi, mis garanteeriks kindlustunde kriisi sattunud Euroopa riikide abistamise korral. Lepingu lõppversioon peaks valmima järgmise aasta märtsiks, pärast mida algab ratifitseerimisprotsess. Ilmselt näitavad järgmise aasta esimestel kuudel Itaalia võlakirjaoksjonid (kui mitte varem), kas turul on usku uutesse kokkulepetesse. Oma arvamuse peaks selle koha pealt avaldama käesoleval nädalal ka Standard & Poor’s, kes möödunud nädalal 15 eurotsooni riigi krediidiväljavaadet langetas.

    Tänane makrokalender ühtegi olulist uudist ei too, mistõttu võiks pigem jälgida, kuidas sujuvad mitmed võlakirjaoksjonid, kui Itaalia, Prantsusmaa ja Holland emiteerivad lühiajalist võlga.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad -0,4% punases, Euroopa on aga avanemas kerges plussis.
  • Moody'se kohaselt võib tippkohtumist lugeda progressiks, kuid siiski mitte rahuldavaks lahenduseks võlakriisi ohjamisel. Reitinguagentuur lubas Euroopa riikide võlakirjareitingud üle vaadata järgmise aasta esimeses kvartalis.

    “In the absence of any decisive policy initiatives that stabilise credit market conditions effectively, our intention as announced in November is to revisit the level and dispersion of ratings during the first quarter of 2012,” Moody’s said in its Weekly Credit Outlook.


    See on mingil määral rikkumas ka tänast sentimenti, kui Euroopa indeksite futuurid on vajunud miinuspoolele ning EUR/USD kaupleb -0,5% jagu madalamal 1,3320 dollari lähedal.
  • Võrdlemisi volatiilne nädala olnud võlakirjaturgudel. Novembri lõpus ronis Itaalia 10a võlakirja yield üle 7%, siis kukkus alla 6% ning nüüd tagasi 7% juurde suundumas.
  • Wolfgang Münchau kirjutab Financial Times'i eilses artiklis tippkohtumise tulemustest ja peamiseks sõnumiks on see, et midagi väga head siit oodata ei ole. Mõned olulisemad väljavõtted artiklist:
    [D]ecision to set up a fiscal union outside the European treaties will do nothing whatsoever to resolve the eurozone crisis.

    If you want a fiscal union, nothing less than a full treaty change will do.

    A fiscal union set up outside the European treaty would face severe legal and practical limitations. Unless a trick is found, it cannot make recourse to the resources and institutions of the EU. Nor can it issue eurozone bonds. The only conceivable counterparty for a eurozone bond is the EU itself.

    Remember what everybody said a week ago? To solve the crisis, the eurozone requires, in the long run, a fiscal union with a prospect of a eurozone bond and, in the short run, unlimited sovereign bond market support by the European Central Bank. What we now have is no treaty change, no eurozone bond and no increase either in the rescue fund or in ECB support.

    Policy changes the ECB announced last week will help banks directly and governments indirectly. But the EU fell short on every element of a comprehensive deal. On Friday, investors reacted positively to what was sold to them as a “fiscal compact”. But once the implications of a separate treaty are understood, I fear disillusionment will set in.
  • Selle artiklis on mitmeid arvamusi Fidelity, JPM, Rabobanki jt. tegelastelt.
  • Üks lepingu klauslitest, mida Euroopa riigid peavad oma põhiseadusesse viima, nõuab struktuurse defitsiidi piiramist 0,5%ga SKTst (majandustsükliga korrigeeritud eelarve defitsiit) . Nagu allolevalt jooniselt näha, siis mahuvad sellesse kriteeriumisse praegu vaid kolm riiki ning 2013 prognooside kohaselt võiks see arv kasvada nelja riigini. Lisaks sellele tuleb võtta kohustus vähendada riigivõlga vähemalt 1/20 võrra aastas selle võlakoorma osa pealt, mis ületab 60% piiri (võla suhe SKT-sse), mis on kahtlemata ambitsioonikas ning seab järgnevatel aastatel regiooni majanduskasvule omad piirid.
  • Üldise negatiivse sentimendi taustal on oma võlu viimasel ajal kaotanud ka kuld, mille unts kaupleb täna -2% madalamal ning sellega jõudnud seitsme nädala põhjade juurde.
  • Euro on sattunud korraliku surve alla, kaubeldes 0,95% miinuspoolel detsembrikuu põhjades $1,3260 taseme juures.
  • Itaalia müüs tänasel oksjonil plaanitud 7 miljardi euro eest 1-aastase tähtaajaga võlakirjasid keskmise tulususega 5,952% ja nõudluse-pakkumise suhe 1,92. Eelmisel oksjonil olid näitajad vastavalt 6,087% ja 1,99.

    Väidetavalt on ka Euroopa Keskpank täna Itaalia võlga kokku ostmas.
  • Erko Rebane
    Võrdlemisi volatiilne nädala olnud võlakirjaturgudel. Novembri lõpus ronis Itaalia 10a võlakirja yield üle 7%, siis kukkus alla 6% ning nüüd tagasi 7% juurde suundumas.


    Kummalisel kombel Reuters kasutab Itaalia 10a võla puhul 3/22 lõppevat paberit ning Bloomberg 9/21 lõppevat paberit. Kõigi muude yieldide puhul kasutatakse sama paberit ja yield on sama, kuid siin oluline erinevus. Hetkel siis Reutersi kuvatav Itaalia 10 aasta yield üle 7% juba, kuid Erko poolt postitatud Bloombergi kuvatav yield ca 6,6%
  • Gapping up
    General news: OXGN +23.4% (OXiGENE and Azanta A/S establish partnership to provide ZYBRESTAT for ATC in Europe on named patient, compassionate use basis), ENDP +9.5% (announces FDA approval of a new formulation of Opana ER designed to be crush-resistant), THQI +6.5% (rebounding from last week's drop on guidance), ARRY +4.3% (ARRY-520 demonstrates durable single-agent activity in patients with advanced multiple myeloma; ARRY-614 demonstrates positive single agent activity in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes), ARIA +3.2% (provides preliminary data from pivotal pace trial of Ponatinib; shows substantial anti-leukemic activity in CML patients who have become resistant or intolerant to available tyrosine kinase inhibitors), GNRC +1.4% (still checking)
  • Gapping down
    Select financial related names showing weakness: ING -7.8%, NBG -7.4%, AEG -6.5%, RBS -4.8%, DB -3.5%, HBC -2.5%, BCS -2.4%, STD -2%.

    Metals/mining stocks trading lower: MT -3.8%, AG -3.6%, SSRI -3.4%, SLV -3%, EGO -2.6%, GLD -1.8%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: STO -3.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), TOT -2.6%, E -2.5%, RDS.A -1.5%, SDRL -1.5%, BP -1.3%.

    Other news: ONXX -11.3% (receives FDA Standard Review Designation of Carfilzomib New Drug Application for the treatment of relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma), DMND -6.3% (under pressure premarket on continued accounting concerns following WSJ article out over the weekend), FRO -3.8% (still checking), PDLI -1.5% (announced that Christine Larson has resigned her position as vice president and CFO of PDL effective as of December 9, 2011; Co will immediately begin a search for a new CFO), ASML -1.4% (still checking).

    Analyst comments: CRM -2.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Cowen), LEN -1.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc), PNM -1.3% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo).
  • Can the Market Ignore Europe?
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Dec 12, 2011 | 8:48 AM

    We experience moments absolutely free from worry. These brief respites are called panic. -- Cullen Hightower

    For months now, the pattern of action in the market is that it rallies sharply on news that Europe has found some solutions to its problems but then sells off as skepticism and doubt creep back in. After it sells off for a while and market players become increasingly nervous, we see more "Europe is saved" news and repeat the cycle once again.

    The heart of the problem is that no one really is convinced that Europe is going to be saved, so every spike and every rally is eventually sold. The upside can come very hard and very quickly, which prevents the bears from being too comfortable, but ultimately, the truth about the depth of the issues in Euroland prevents market players from being very confident.

    Last Thursday, the market was surprised when the European Central Bank (ECB) didn't come up with the standard rescue. But on Friday, an intergovernmental treaty that imposed tough austerity measures was hailed as the latest step forward. Already this morning, the pessimism about that solution is rebuilding and the market is setting up for a soft open.

    It doesn't look as though the market's intense focus on Europe is going to end any time soon but the big question for us at this point is whether we might see a temporary respite. Can we ignore Europe long enough for a little end of the year rally?

    There are only 14 trading days left in 2011 and many market players are anxious for some better trading after what has been a very tough year. The indices are around flat for 2011 but there is no shortage of fund managers who are lagging and are in desperate need of some relative performance.

    What it really boils down to is whether we can shift the focus to stock picking and forget some of the macro-economic issues for a while. One of the most challenging aspects of the market recently has been the very high correlation between stocks as they all dance in tandem to the news flow. There has been very little reward for individual stock picking. If you have wanted to produce returns, you have had to focus on playing market direction, which has been particularly tricky as the vast majority of movement occurs overnight and we see big gaps every morning.

    The market is reacting to Europe again this morning and we'll have to see if we can shake that off after the open. There are plenty of interesting charts and the potential for some good movement, but this focus on Europe has to lessen for them to work.

    I am a bit concerned about some of the earnings warnings we saw last week. Even without Europe, there are plenty of economic headwinds in the U.S. as well. But so many market players have been out of step with this market for so long it wouldn't take much to produce a decent run if Europe goes to sleep for a little while. With end-of-the-year vacations occurring, there is some hope for that.

    We'll see if the Monday morning dip-buyers step up. They almost always will give it a try to start the week. Market players are very anxious for some sort of Santa Claus rally to wrap up a tough year. Can they ignore Europe long enough to make it happen? I'm looking for a pretty good try.
  • Intel Fourth-Quarter Revenue to Be Below Expectations Due to Hard Disk Drive Supply Shortages

    INTC kauplemas eelturul -4%
  • Netflix trades to HoD; Hearing AMZN for NFLX rumor circulating

    Ja peale seda:

    Dealreporter out saying Verizon (VZ) is looking at NFLX.
  • Pfizer announces new $10 billion share repurchase program; increases dividend to $0.22/share from $0.20/share
  • Diamond Foods: Headlines crossing that PG says it is committed to DMND deal
  • Dunkin Brands: Fidelity files 13G showing 11.5% stake in DNKN

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