LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 13. detsember

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Sarnaselt igale varasemale EU tippkohtumisele, ei andnud ka reedel väljakuulutatud ettepanekud erilist põhjust arvata, et võlakriis on nüüd lahendatud või et tule koldele on voolikutega lähemale jõutud. Samal ajal kui kõik hinge kinni hoides S&P otsust ootavad, ütles Moody’s, et ilma otsustavate poliitiliste meetmeteta jääb Euroopa avatuks täiendavatele šokkidele ning see avaldab negatiivset mõju riikide krediidireitingutele. Ühtlasi ei hinnanud tippkohtumise lahendust kõikehõlmavaks ka Fitch, mis on pannud turuosalised spekuleerima, et AAA reitinguga eurotsooni riikide arv võib peagi kahaneda. Kõige tõenäolisemaks ohvriks loetakse Prantsusmaad, kelle president tõdes eile ühes ajalehes, et reitingu langetamine suudetakse üle elada, mis indikeeriks, et Sarkozy arvates pole sellest sündmusest enam pääsu.

    Nii Euroopas kui USA-s vedasid langust eile finantssektor. Valdava osa päevast -2% punases kaubelnud USA indeksid suutsid sessiooni lõpus siiski veidi kosuda, seekord tänu Saksa rahandusministri väidetele, et Commerzbank ei vaja riigipoolset abi. Kuid võrdlemisi suurte liikumiste juures jäi aga turu käive suhteliselt tagasihoidlikuks.
    NYSE volume


    Tänastest makrouudistest võiks suuremat huvi pakkuda alljärgnevad:
    11.30 Suurbritannia novembri inflatsioon
    12.00 Saksamaa ZEW indeksid (detsember)
    15.30 USA novembri jaemüük
    21.15 FOMC intressimäära otsus

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel nullis ja sarnase stardi on tegemas ka Euroopa.
  • Ärge alahinnake kopterit. Homme on intresside päev.
    Samas, torgitakse juba usinalt, et drooge täis gorilla lõpuks liigutama hakkaks.
    (US) Fed's Bernanke recently urged ECB's Draghi to respond aggressively to EU crisis; Has reviewed 2008 Fed program with ECB in case the EU crisis gets worse - US financial press
    - Report is largely a review of Bernanke's legacy and a preview of Tuesday decision.
    - Fed may reveal forecasts for short-term interest rates to help push long-term rates even lower.
    - Concludes that Fed Chairman will continue to err on the side of caution, citing recent comments from November news conference: "The area where we have fallen short obviously is on the unemployment side... Criticisms based on the concern about inflation have, so far at least, not proved to be very valid."

  • Täna ikkagi intresside otsus nagu Erko postitas. :)
  • Kui rahvusvaheline reisijate vedu kasvas oktoobris 4,6%, siis kaubavedu kahanes lennunduses -4,8%. Kaubavedu on üks esimesi sektoreid, mis kannatab, kui ettevõtete kindlustunne alaneb ning alloleval graafikul joonistub globaalne majaduskliima jahenemine üsna hästi välja.

    In international passenger traffic, IATA suggested the apparent strength might be unsustainable because European carriers saw 6.4 percent growth, much more than the global average, and that rate could be at risk from Europe's economic crisis.
    "With Europe accounting for 29.2 percent of global air travel, this suggests that the current overall strength in air travel is based on fragile foundations," said Tyler.
    The weak euro has driven demand for flights into Europe in the past year and European airlines have taken advantage of that by providing more seats, with 8.1 percent extra capacity in October.
  • UK inflatsioon jätkuvalt suhteliselt kõrge, kuigi veidi tempo aeglustus võrreldes eelneva kuuga

    UK RPI (Nov) Y/Y 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.1% (Prev. 5.4%)
    UK CPI (Nov) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%)
    UK Core CPI (Nov) Y/Y 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.4%)

    ONS says food, transport, clothing, furniture largest downward pressure on CPI; alcohol, tobacco biggest upward contributions
  • Hispaania võlakirjaoksjonitel nõudlus üsna korralik ja yieldid ka madalamad võrreldes eelmise korraga.

    - Spanish 12-month T-Bill auction for EUR 3.44bln, bid/cover 3.10 vs. Prev. 2.13 (yield 4.050% vs. Prev. 5.022%)
    - Spanish 18-month T-Bill auction for EUR 1.5bln, bid/cover 5.0 vs. Prev. 5.96 (yield 4.226% vs. Prev. 5.159%)

  • German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (Dec) M/M -53.8 vs. Exp. -55.8 (Prev. -55.2)
    German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (Dec) M/M 26.8 vs. Exp. 31.0 (Prev. 34.2)

  • Vabandan,aga võiks olla rohkem infot mida teevad teised Euroopa börsid(üldisem väljendus,punased,rohelised,kõiguvad niisama)
    Tänud!
  • täna avaldatud India tööstustoodang näitas oktoobris üsna dramaatilist alanemist, kukkudes -5,1% võrreldes aastataguse perioodiga. Tegemist on esimese langusega viimase 28 kuu jooksul ning selgelt alla analüütikute oodatud -0,7%lise kahanemise. See paneb keskpanga kahtlemata keerulisse olukorda, kus 10%line inflatsioon nõuaks intresside tõstmise jätkamist või hoidmist praegusel 8,5% peal, teisalt aga tekib vajadus võidelda jaheneva makro vastu. India keskpank peab oma järgmise regulaarse miitingu 16. detsembril.
  • uusipoiss
    Vabandan,aga võiks olla rohkem infot mida teevad teised Euroopa börsid(üldisem väljendus,punased,rohelised,kõiguvad niisama)
    Tänud!

    tänud soovituse eest. Üritan seda kindlasti edaspidi arvesse võtta aga ma arvan, et sul on mugavam hoida veebilehitsejas mõnda järjehoidjat, mis annab turgude hetkeseisust parema ülevaate. WSJ market data center on minu meelest päris hea variant
  • Zerohedge vahendusel võib lugeda Deutsche Banki analüütikute prognoosist järgmiseks aastaks ehk on toodud välja 6 erinevat teemat või stsenaariumi, mis rohkemal või vähemal määral 2012. aastal maailmas tähelepanu keskpunktis on ja kõneainet pakub.

    Siin mõned väljavõtted:
    There does seem to be a complacency that EM growth will continue to be the global engine and help provide the developed world some kind of safety net. What if China does see a hard landing? The imbalances are becoming more intense and with it the risks. Our GEM strategist John-Paul Smith has concerns over China for three main reasons. 1) Inflation is likely to remain stubbornly high; 2) The banking sector is unlikely to be able to help policy easing given the increasing worries over previous over lending, asset quality and subsequent NPLs; and 3) The recent data on deposits and capital flows may be an indication of incipient flight out of fiat money in China as depositors begin to realise the asset quality problems the banks have.

    Analüütikute hinnagul ei saa Hiina majanduse hard landing stsenaariumi sugugi välistada, kuna hoiatavaid signaale on kogunenud üsna mitu.

    For those that don’t think QE has any impact on long-term inflation because it doesn’t impact wages, maybe a radical solution would be to print money and directly hand the money over to consumers?
    This might sound farfetched today but we’ve learnt in this crisis that things that sounded outlandish, say 6 months before they happened, often became mainstream discussion points or actual official policy
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: URBN +9.6% (discloses investor update in 10-Q; Q4-to-date comparable retail segment net sales are mid single-digit positive), AVNR +6.1%, DD +1.6%.

    M&A news: SYNO (Synovis Life Tech to be acquired by Baxter for $28/share).

    Select financial related names showing strength: SNV +7.4%, LYG +2%, MS +1.4%, BAC +1.1%, GS +0.7%, C +-0.8%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +2.3%, FCX +2.2%, EXK +2.1% (discovers two new high grade silver-gold veins at the Guanajuato Mine, Mexico) AA +1%.

    A few oil/gas related names showing modest strength: ROYL +6.0% (announced that the State of Alaska has posted the results of the North Slope lease sale 2011 in which the company successfully acquired more than 100,000 acres), BP +1.4%, RDS.A +1%, TOT +0.2%, .

    Other news: ALXA +66.4% (FDA Psychopharmacologic Drugs Advisory Committee recommends approval of ADASUVE), YMI +39.7% (Reports Updated Phase I/II Data for its JAK1/JAK2 Inhibitor CYT387 at ASH 2011; Well tolerated for dosing periods up to and exceeding two years), RPRX +17.4% (ticking higher, reports top-line Phase 2 data indicate androxal normalizes testicular function in men with Type 2 diabetes), CCMP +16.9% (ticking higher, Cabot Micro Proposed leveraged recapitalization with special cash dividend of $15/share and Increase in authorized share repurchase program to $150 million), CAS +5% (prices offerings of $225 million of senior secured notes due 2016 and $50 million of convertible senior notes due 2017), NFLX +4.2% (Netflix seeing continued strength following report out overnight discussing recent M&A speculation and potential partnerships), MTGE +4% ( declares $0.80 fourth quarter dividend), NEOP +2.9% (licenses AstraZeneca imaging agent for amyloid detection to aid diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease).

    Analyst comments: CHK +2.0% (light volume, initiated with a Outperform at Robert W. Baird), BA +0.9% (initiated with a Buy at Lazard).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BBY -8.9%, ST -2.3%, MILL -1.5%.

    A few European financial related names showing weakness: IRE -2.6%, BBVA -2.1%, DB -1.5%, PUK -1.5%, CS -1.4%, BCS -0.7%.

    Other news:IVN -13.8% (announced that a decision has been received in the arbitration between Ivanhoe and Rio Tinto), PSE -5.4% (PXD and PSE announced that the Partnership has commenced a public offering of 4.4 mln common units representing limited partner), MWE -3.3% (announces intent to acquire remaining 49% interest in Liberty joint venture, increases 2012 DCF and growth capital expenditure guidance, and announces utica joint venture; announces public offering of common units), .

    Analyst comments: USG -3% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), CNI -0.5% (ticking lower, downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC ), SCCO -0.3% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays).
  • November Retail Sales ex-auto +0.2% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +0.6% from +0.6%
    November Retail Sales +0.2% vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +0.6% from +0.5%
  • Citi analüütikud on täna positiivsete kommentaaridega väljas OpenTable (OPEN) kohta.
    Citi kinnitab OPEN aktsiale oma Osta reitingut koos $ 67 hinnasihiga.

    Citi analüütikud on natuke ringi käinud ja uurinud, mida arvavad OPEN-i kliendid firma teenustest ja siin järeldused:

    Update #1: Proprietary Consumer Survey Results Positive For OPEN — We ran a 2,500 person survey, with the following key points: 1. 80% of Americans typically use the phone when making a restaurant reservation – i.e. ‘Net penetration is still low, giving OPEN a very large opportunity; 2. 81% of respondents who have booked Online used OpenTable – i.e. OPEN has leading market share; 3. 45% of OpenTable users use the service to find new restaurants & 36% report making more reservations as a result of using OpenTable – i.e. OPEN is creating incremental business for restaurants.

    Citi on teinud 2500 inimese hulgas küsitluse ja selle tulemusel selgus, et 80% ameeriklastest eelistab endiselt restorani lauda broneerida telefoni teel ,mis tähendab, et võimalus teha seda internetis on endiselt üsna tundmatu ja harjumatu ning annab OPEN-le hulgaliselt ruumi kasvada. 80% neist, kes on laua broneerinud veebis, on selleks kasutanud OPEN-t ja 45% kasutavad OPEN-t leidmaks uusi restorane ja 36% teevad tänu OPEN kasutamisele rohkem broneeringuid.

    Update #2: Proprietary Restaurant Survey Results Modestly Positive For OPEN — We ran our second 150 restaurant survey, with the following key points: 1. 100% of OpenTable restaurants surveyed said they would “Likely Recommend” the service (up from 95% in Q1), BUT the % that would “Highly Likely Recommend” the service fell from 84% to 65%; 2. 47% of OPEN restaurants expect to increase their monthly spend vs. only 6% that expect to decrease it; & 3. Satisfaction with OPEN’s pricing has increased from 42% to 59%.

    Restorane küsitledes küll kõik OPEN-ga koostööd tegevad söögikohad pigem soovitaks OpenTable`t, aga nende retsoranide hulk, kes kindlasti soovitaks on vähenenud 84% pealt 65% peale. Samas rahulolu OPEN-i hindadega on kasvanud 42% pealt 59% peale.
    Update #3: Recent $50MM Share Repo Authorized – This could amount to 6% of OPEN shares, helps provide a floor to the share price & signals shareholder focus.
    Update #4: Neutral To Slightly Positive Q4 Trends — Our proprietary Restaurant Tracking survey shows solid Q/Q strength in OPEN’s Restaurant Ads, both in North America and Internat’l markets, largely in-line with our ests. And per comScore, Web traffic trends indicate marked improvement vs. Q3, though comps are much easier.

    OPEN-i aktsiate tagasiostu programm on kinnitatatud ja analüütikute hinnagul peaks neljas kvartal kulgema mõnevõrra positiivsemas toonis.

    OPEN-i aktsiast on viimase poole aasta jooksul kõvasti õhku välja lastud ning aktsia on oma väärtusest kaotanud üle 60%. Citi analüütikud küll otseselt millegi väga positiivsega või üllatavga välja ei tule,aga samas annab nende küsitlus aimu sellest, et OPEN-i potentsiaal pole kuhugi kadunud. Veelgi enam- ettevõttel on ruumi kasvada piisavalt ja ainsaks investorite hirmuks tundub hetkel olevat halvenev majandus, mis paneks inimesi vähem restoranides käima. Raske ennustada, kui positiivseks turuosalised Citi analüütikute kommentaare võivad hinnata, aga eeldaks, et päris külmaks need investoreid täna ehk ei jäta.

  • Kõikidest nendest eelnevatest lugematutes kordadest, kus Citi OPEN-t osta soovitab, mis teeb selle just täna eriliseks, küsitlus?
  • Kas see küsitlus nüüd selle eriliseks teeb, aga tavapärasele " the stock`s current levels are very attractive" annab natuke jumet juurde küll.
  • Openiga oli vist see, kes pakub rohkem, mitme $ Goog selle alla neelab. Goog vist arendab hoopis oma asja.
  • Selle analüütiku puhul on seda current levelit liiga palju natuke. Google ostis Zagati ära sügisel millalgi, uduselt tuleb.
  • Morgan Stanley prognoosib, et 2012. aastal jätkab EUR nõrgenemist ja EUR/USD hinnasihiks andnud 1,20.

    Further European Central Bank interest cuts will accompany continuation of the eurozone crisis into 2012, both of which are reasons why a EURUSD short is one of Morgan Stanley's top trades of the year.
    Global deleveraging will aggravate downward pressure on the euro, and lack of growth will make this difficult for financial institutions in euro area countries.
    Action: Sell EUR/USD at 1.3670 – target 1.2100


  • Be Prepared
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Dec 13, 2011 | 8:35 AM EST | 1 Comment

    "Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you react to it." --Charles R. Swindoll

    European stocks were firmer overnight and that is all the U.S. markets need for a better open. The only thing that really matters these days is the direction of the euro, and it is up at present.

    As I've been discussing lately, the big question for this market as 2011 winds down is whether we can forgot Europe long enough for some positive year-end action. Emotional and psychological conditions are good, with plenty of skepticism, poorly positioned market players and the need for relative performance by money managers, but the threat of Europe has been keeping parked on the sidelines.

    Technically, the indices aren't in great shape but they are still holding where they need to. The S&P 500 gave back all of Friday's gains but it is still above the 50-day simple moving average. What will really ignite this market is if the S&P500 can move over its 200-day simple moving average at 1262. We were turned back there in October, November and again last week. Another try would bode well for the bulls, and we'd likely have some chasing of the breakout if we can generate that sort of momentum.

    On the other hand, a break of the 50-day moving average at 1221 is going to embolden the bears and send some hopeful bulls back to cash. We need some upside momentum to develop, and if we can't even hold the 50-day, it is going to be very tough to generate much energy.

    I've been leaning bullish lately based mainly on some contrary thinking and the possibility of positive seasonality, but I want to point out that my approach to the market is to be reactive rather than anticipatory. Although I'm optimistic about upside, I'm not acting on that hope right now. I want to see some actual strength before I am more aggressive with my buys. I have a thesis but have yet to act on it.

    One of my biggest criticisms of Wall Street is the intense focus on prediction rather than reaction. If you react quickly to changing circumstances, you don't have to play the guessing game. Sure, it can be very profitable to make accurate predictions, but it is also hugely risky. Loading up long based on a bullish thesis at this point could pay off nicely, but is it really necessary to rush to act? Why not wait a little while and see if the action develops the way you think it will? It might cost you some gains not to be in early, but you reduce risk substantially and that may make it worthwhile.

    The key to being an effective reactive trader is to have a course of action ready. You don't want to hesitate when conditions are right and things begin to move. You need to have a shopping list in place and have the right mindset so that you can be aggressive when you need to be.

    That is where I'm at right now. I have a bullish thesis in mind and I'm waiting to see if it plays out so I can react and be aggressive with some buying. I believe things are developing in a positive manner and if we start seeing a little more energy and some greater buying interest, I'll be moving fast to put my idle cash to work.

    Being bullish doesn't have to mean that you are highly invested already. It can simply mean you have a mindset that prepares you to act. If conditions don't develop as anticipated then you simply stand aside. You reduce your risk greatly with this sort of thinking but you may miss some of the early gains and you have to be ready to act quickly.

    We'll see how well this market holds up this morning. We need the dip buyers to show some real resolve and we need pockets of speculative action to develop. I do not believe market players are well positioned, so the potential for a good-sized move is there, if we can gain some traction.

    Don't forget we have the Federal Open Market Committee's interest rate announcement this afternoon at 2.15 p.m. EST. There has been very little talk about the Fed lately, and nothing much is expected, but it still can be a market mover.
  • Netflix: CNBC's Faber says from the people he has talked to, Verizon (VZ) has never talked to anybody about NFLX
  • Suht imelik uudis, aktsia kauplemas 22% kõrgemal.

    Cabot Micro (CCMP) Proposed leveraged recapitalization with special cash dividend of $15/share and Increase in authorized share repurchase program to $150 million

    Co intends to pay a special cash dividend of $15 per share, or ~$345 mln in aggregate, to its shareholders during the first quarter of calendar year 2012. Approximately half of the dividend is expected to be funded from the company's cash balance, and the remaining amount is expected to be funded with new debt. Payment of the special dividend is contingent upon arranging the associated financing with terms and conditions that are acceptable to the company. In addition, the Board has authorized an increase in the company's existing share repurchase program to $150 mln, from the previous available authorization of ~$83 mln.
  • Spike in comodity markets being attributed to rumor of Fed hinting at QE 3 today
  • AlariÜ
    Spike in comodity markets being attributed to rumor of Fed hinting at QE 3 today


    Kas nad ütlevad, milline see hint peaks ka välja nägema - kas Ben pilgutab 2 korda silma või kuidagi teisiti :-)
  • Reuters reporting, citing sources in the Ruling Coalition, that Merkel rejects raising upper limits of funding for ESM bailout mechanism
  • Eurol dollari vastu uus 11 kuu põhi $1,3133 tasemel ja kukub päris kiiresti.
  • Fitch langetas Bulgaaria, Tšehhi, Läti ja Leedu reitingu väljavaate "positiivse" pealt "stabiilse" peale.
  • RADVision: Hearing AV for RVSN making the rounds
  • OPEN pakkus täna väga ilusa liikumise. Aktsia avanes $ 36,32 pealt ja sealt alates liikus sirgjoones aina ülespoole, käies ära ka $ 40 taseme all. Avanedes oli tugev turg OPEN-le muidugi toeks nii nagu tõi turu suunamuutus ka OPEN-i allapoole $ 37,50 juurde. Hetkel on aktsia uuesti taastunud ja kaupleb $ 38,60 kandis, 7,2% plusspoolel.

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