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Börsipäev 29. detsember

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eilse suurema müügi raames käive USA turgudel veidi kosus, ent võrreldes ülejäänud aastaga jääb see endiselt küllaltki madalaks, mistõttu pole antud keskkonnas välistatud võrdlemisi seletamatud liikumised nagu võis näha näiteks EUR/USD-i puhul, mis üle protsendi jagu miinuses kauples.
    NYSE composite volume

    Tehnikud viitavad, et S&P 500 selle aasta tootlus muutus taas negatiivseks ning vajumine alla 200 päeva libiseva keskmise tähendab ebaõnnestunud läbimurdmiskatset. Ma ise kaldun arvama, et madala käibe ja hooajaliste tegurite tõttu on keeruline mingeid järeldusi teha, vaid pigem tuleks oodata jaanuari, mil turuosalised on puhkuselt tagasi ning käibed normaliseerunud.
    S&P 500 ja 200 päeva libisev keskmine


    Väidetavalt oli riskiisu kadumise süüks info Euroopa Keskpanga bilansi suurenemisest, mis oli tingitud möödunud nädala refinantseerimise operatsioonist, kuid antud fakt oli turuosalistele juba tegelikult teada.

    Eile müüs Itaalia lühiajalist võlga ning yieldide langus näis toetavat turgu vähemalt Euroopa sessiooni ajal. Märksa olulisem saab olema tänane oksjon, kus kaubaks lähevad pikema tähtajaga võlakirjad (kuni kümme aastat), mis annab paremat aimu, kui valmis ollakse valitsuste pikaajalist võlga finantseerima pärast EKP likviidsusoperatsiooni. Itaalia valitsuse 10a yield püsib igal juhul endiselt 7% läheduses vaatamata positiivsetele tulemustele kolmapäevasel kuue kuu võlakirjade oksjonil.

    USA poolel tuleb samuti hulga olulist makrot. Kell 15.30 raporteeritakse möödunud nädala esmaste töötuabiraha taotluste number, kell 16.45 detsembri Chicago PMI, kell 17.00 novembris pooleliolnud kinnisvaratehingute arv ning kell 18.00 Kansas Fedi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus.

    USA indeksite futuurid on pisut kosunud ning kauplevad 0,4% plussis, Euroopa on aga avanemas 0,3-0,4% kõrgemal.
  • Kui vaadata tagasi lõppevale aastale ning küsida, milline oli enim kallinenud tooraine, siis polnud see kuld, toornafta ega ka veiseliha, vaid hoopis piim, mille futuurid tõusid tänavu 41% 18,66 dollarini 100 naela kohta. Samal ajal aga tõusis 24 tooraine liikumist kajastav S&P GSCI indeks 3,4%. Peamiseks toetavaks teguriks on olnud USA piimatoodete eksport, mis paranes selle aasta esimese kümne kuuga 8,5% 1,437 miljoni tonnini võrreldes mullusega.

    “Export demand will continue to grow in 2012,” with more sales to Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia, the six biggest buyers, said Jerry Dryer the chief economist for Chicago-based Rice Dairy LLC. “U.S. food- service demand will improve in the second half of 2012,” as economic growth recovers, he said.
  • Itaalia valitsus müüs 2022a võlakirju yieldiga 6,98% vs 7,56% kuu tagasi. Bid to cover 1,36x vs 1,34x novembri lõpus. Seega kokkuvõttes üsna pettumustvalmistanud tulemused arvestades vahepealset LTRO-d, mille arvelt loodeti näha suuremat nõudlust ja tulususte tugevamat kukkumist. Lisaks ei saadud 2014a võlakirjade pakkumist soovitud mahus täis, kui maksimaalse 3 mld EUR asemel müüdi 2,5 mld EUR väärtuses võlakirju.

    EUR/USD on jätkamas langust ning kauplemas 1,2900 USD piiri lähedal (-0,32%)
  • Kui 2012. aastaks otsida huvitavamaid sektoreid, siis olematu võlakoorma poolest torkab silma tehnoloogiasektor:



    Credit Suisse'ile meeldivad sektoris tarkvaratootjad:

    With four constituents, software makes up the biggest portion of the basket and software companies are a subsector in which we are tactically and strategically overweight, given their ability to perform well in a difficult macro environment. Their business model is marked by a high level of revenue stability, generated through recurring maintenance and service revenues. Software companies can also act quickly in adopting their cost bases (direct and indirect sales channels) should there be a need. Funding should not be a problem at all since they are prominent cash generators. All four companies in the basket are net cash positive. Furthermore, SAP, Oracle and Microsoft have launched new products to drive future growth.

    Meile tundub sektoris huvitav nt Google, millest kirjutame pikemalt siin.
  • Kui pöörata pilgud järgmisesse aastasse, siis üksnes jaanuaris plaanivad eurotsooni riigid emiteerida 82 miljardi euro ulatuses võlakirju, mis moodustab 35% kogu esimese kvartali prognoositavast mahust (234 mld EUR).
  • Gapping up
    M&A related: FSIN +8.8% (Li Fu and AGC submitted revised offer to acquire all shares at $9.50, up from $9.25 offer - amended 13D filing), YHOO +1.7% (Alibaba Group hired lobbying firm as it may be preparing bid for YHOO, according to reports).

    A few mining stocks are trading slightly higher: VALE +2.1%, BBL +1.4%, BHP +1.2%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing modest strength: RDS.A +0.6%, RIG +0.5%, COP +0.4%.
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: EXAR -3.7%, ALXN -1.3% (will acquire 100% of the capital stock of Enobia; reaffirms FY11 Guidance).

    A few European financial names showing weakness: ING -2.7%, BCS -0.7%, HBC -0.6%.

    Select gold/silver related names trading lower: SLV -1.8%, GG -1.5%, GLD -1.4%, EGO -1.4%, SLW -1.3%, IAG -1.3%, HL -1.2%, GDX -0.9%, ABX -0.9%, SVM -0.8%.

    Other news: CSKI -18.6% (announced that CFO Hongyu Pan will be leaving effective December 22, 2011 for personal reasons), OPXT -2.8% (ticking lower, updates status following flooding in Thailand; The co expects that the loss of revenue in each of the third fiscal quarter ending Dec 31, 2011 and Q4 ending March 31, 2012 will be material), MOS -1.9% (announces phosphate production curtailment of up to 250K tonnes through March 31, 2012; volumes and pricing for Q2 were within prior guidance ranges, for both phosphate and potash), QGEN -1.6% and NVS -1.2% (still checking).

    Analyst comments: UTX -1.3% (United Technologies downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus).
  • Continuing claims 3.601 mln vs. 3.600 mln; prior revised to 3.567 mln from 3.546 mln
    Weekly initial jobless claims 381K vs. 368K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 366K from 364K


  • Active Network (ACTV) initiated with Buy at ThinkEquity
  • A Moment for Reflection
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Dec 29, 2011 | 9:00 AM

    "Happiness is conceivable only for those who enjoy themselves without thinking that they will always want more and thus be discontented, or for those who are content without thinking that they have no pleasure." --Marcellus Emants

    With just two days of trading left in 2011, many market players are done for the year and the action is extremely thin and unstable. This morning the euro is hitting a fresh low for the year on a slightly weak Italian bond auction and that is sending precious metals down hard, but mild strength elsewhere is holding up the indices.

    I'm not going to try to read much into the market at this point. It is too thin and random right now to be meaningful. In addition, the end-of-year games prevent us from having confidence that stocks will move on their individual merits. I call this a coin-flip market: you might be lucky and catch a move one way or the other, but it will be due to luck and not any great insight or skill.

    If we step back, forget the end-of-year stuff and look at the big picture the failure of the S&P 500 to hold above the early December lows and aggressively attack the 1275 level is a bit troublesome. Now that we have been turned back, the risk that the downside could gains momentum is high. We have good support at the 50-day simple moving average at 1235 (the really key level is 1200, which is quite a ways down there), but it looks a bit slippery here. The fact that it is the end of the year just makes it more uncertain.

    While it is a difficult time to do much trading, it is a good time to reflect on our performance this past year. What worked? What didn't? What changes might you make? No matter how well you might have done, it is impossible for the ambition trader to be content with the results.

    In my mind, the most notable change in trading during 2011 was that a rigid technical, momentum approach, as illustrated by Investor's Business Daily, didn't work as well as it did in the past. Much greater flexibility was needed to deal with this market since so much of the action was macro driving and did not adhere to the conventional rules. Individual stock picking did not work well as stocks tended to move in a group as we danced to global news.

    In addition to the high correlation between stocks, there were fewer chances to find good entry points because the focus on Europe caused much of the action to occur overnight. Typically, you had to anticipate gaps the next day to catch good-sized moves.

    That style does not work well for momentum investors looking for confirmation of a trend before embracing it, and there really is no easy way to change that. You might try averaging in slowly using a contrarian approach, but a stylistic change like that can can't be made without a good amount of stress.

    Another challenging aspect of trading this past year was the continued inclination toward low-volume, V-shaped moves. In January, March, May and October we had some sudden bouts of levitation. It was great if you just jumped in and rode the move but, typically, we went from oversold to overbought so quickly that the charts never really developed well, and once they did run for a bit it was on light volume and the momentum was not trustworthy.

    The lesson is that if you want to catch a rally, you can't be too selective about technical setups. You needed to loosen your standards a bit to ride some of the moves. I'm not going to get into why this sort of action tended to occur right now, but it presented plenty of problems for pure technical, momentum traders, and I suspect it is one of the key reasons that so many hedge fund managers have done poorly this year.

    The key in 2012 will be keeping an open mind and looking for styles and themes that work. Once everyone tends to see something, it no longer works as well, which means we always have to be pushing for the next big development.

    I'll be reflecting more on this during the slow trading today and tomorrow. Even though I expect 2012 to be very challenging, I feel good about our ability to adapt and to find ways to profit as events unfold if we put forth the effort. As always, the great thing about the market is that opportunities will always exist. We just need to find ways to seize them.
  • Dec. Chicago PMI 62.5 vs. 60.1 Briefing.com consensus
  • Amazon.com: Hearing defended at Piper Jaffray; see slight Q4 upside vs consensus estimates
  • DECK - RBC analyst defending Deckers right now: ' It's going to get cold soon ', he says.
  • Cheniere Energy (LNG): SAC Capital Advisors discloses 5.7% stake in 13G filing

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