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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 11. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Riskisentiment on möödunud ööpäeva jooksul paranenud, osalt tänu oodatust tugevamale Prantsuse tööstustoodangule, mis võis osades suurendada lootust, et olukord Euroopas ei ole nii hull nagu paljud kardavad ning teisalt tänu spekulatsioonile, et Hiina keskpank võib juba jaanuaris astuda samme majanduskasvu toetamiseks pärast eilset kaubandusbilansi statistikat, mis kajastas madalaimat impordi kasvu alates 2009.a oktoobrist.

    Tänane makrouudiste pool toob kell 10.00 Saksamaa eelmise aasta esmase SKT näidu, mis ei pruugi palju neljanda kvartali kohta öelda, kuna harilikult tehakse eelnevates kvartalites ka revideerimisi. Kell 12.00 avalikustatakse eurotsooni kolmanda kvartali SKT revideeritud muutus ning õhtul kell 21.00 USA Fedi Beige Book. Päeva sees on oodata pealkirjasid tänaselt Merkeli ja Monti kohtumiselt.

    Pärast korralikku rallit Euroopas on siinsed indeksite futuurid indikeerimas avanemist -0,4% võrra punases. USA futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,1% madalamal.
  • Saksamaa 2011.a majanduskasv 3,0% ehk võrdne analüütikute ootusega.
  • Crocs (CROX), mis valmistas eelmise aasta teises poooles investoritele oma müügiprognoosiga pettumuse, teatas eilsel järelturul, et käive tuleb prognoosi ülemisse äärde.

    Crocs sees Q4 revenue at the high end of prior guidance of $200-205 mln, Capital IQ consensus $204 mln
  • Mis selle eurotsooni kolmanda kvartali SKT revideeritud muutusega juhtus? Pidi kl 12 tulema kuid ei tulnud, nüüd kalendritest kah kadunud. Lükati avaldamine edasi?
  • Heiti
    Mis selle eurotsooni kolmanda kvartali SKT revideeritud muutusega juhtus? Pidi kl 12 tulema kuid ei tulnud, nüüd kalendritest kah kadunud. Lükati avaldamine edasi?


    Kuna info pärineb Morgan Stanely kalendrist, siis on võimalik, et tegu oli lihtsalt inimliku apsuga, et see sinna sattus.
  • Eurostat cuts Euro Q3 GDP growth estimate to 0.1% from 0.2%
  • Euro on tuge müügisurve all, kaubeldes avanemistaseme suhtes 0,75% madalamal $1,2680 juures. Esmaspäeval tehtud 16 kuu põhjani on jäänud veel 15 punkti.

    Austraalia dollari vastu eurol uus mitmekümne aasta põhi A$1,2352 juures.
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DLA -22.4%, SMCI -6.1%, CWTR -5.8% (light volume), SVU -5.6%, MPC -2.6%, HRC -2%, VMED -2% (Virgin Media doubles broadband speeds; cap-ex remain within current guidance of 15-17% of revenue for 2012 and for future years; also upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie).

    M&A related: CMC -7.7% (Icahn's confirms tender for CMC expires and nominees in proxy contest withdrawn).

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: RDS.A -3.4%, STO -2.4%, TOT -2.2%, BP -2%, E -1.2%, RIG -1.1%, HAL -1%, .

    Other news: URBN -14.8% (announces resignation of Glen Senk and appointment of Richard Hayne as Chief Executive Officer, downgraded to Sell from Buy at Citigroup), BPAX -7.3% (still checking), TWO -3.7% (announces public offering of 25 mln shares of common stock), RGLD -3.6% (announces 4,000,000 share common stock offering), UN -3% (traded lower overseas), IHG -1.3% (still checking), MSFT -1.1% (weakness following MSFT's comments regarding slower than expected PC sales due to flooding in Thailand).

    Analyst comments: PHG -2.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas ), H -2.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), WBMD -1.9% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), LAZ -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup), EMR -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), HBAN -1.2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), SI -1% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas ), KO -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS).
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: EFII +7.4% (ticking higher, announces acquisition of Cretaprint for approx $31 mln; expects to be immaterial for Q1 and accretive for 2012), MFRM +6.3%, CROX +5.3%, SNX +4.4%.

    M&A news: TXT +2.3% (light volume; Textron is conducting a strategic review that could include a spin-off of parts of aerospace business, according to reports), .

    A few European financial related names ticking higher: ING +3.1%, NBG +1.8%, RBS +1.4%, LYG +1.2%.

    Other news: BORN +20.6% (signs pre-sales contracts worth ~90% of 2012 total production capacity), INSW +13.9% (a special cash distribution of $5.00 per share on common stock; will trade under PTNT), EK +13.3% (Kodak confirms it filed lawsuit for patent infringement against Apple, HTC), YOKU +7.1% (Youku.com signs content deal with Twentieth Century Fox for Growing Youku premium platform ), MAS +1.7% (mentioned positively on MadMoney), SVM +1% (received RMB 269 mln cash dividend from its Chinese subsidiary ), REGN +0.8% (mentioned positively on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: ALU +4.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), LUX +2.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays), AKS +2% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), MAR +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), GM +1.1% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper), ROK +0.6% (to Buy from Neutral at Goldman and added to Conviction Buy List; upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura).
  • Wells Fargo langetab täna Ralph Lauren (RL) reitingu Osta pealt Hoia peale ja hinnasihi $ 157-165 pealt $ 146- 154 peale.

    We are downgrading RL shares to Market Perform from Outperform, on the heels of TIF's weak holiday sales results. Similar to TIF, RL has significant exposure to the New York City metro area and TIF's NYC flagship holiday sales were down 1% driven by lower sales to local customers (weak outlook for Wall Street compensation). Also, similar to TIF, RL's European exposure (20% of total sales) is mostly in the UK where TIF saw further deterioration during holiday. We lower our FY2012E/FY2013E EPS to $6.89/$8.12 from $6.96/$8.24 to reflect incremental macro pressures (consensus estimates are $6.97/$8.13).
    We note that these estimates still reflect significant growth for RL as we believe the brand's strong momentum could continue on a relative basis. RL is trading at a premium valuation (21x FY2012E EPS and 18x FY2013E EPS vs. 18x and 16x, respectively, for TIF and COH) and comparisons are getting tougher.
    Uncertainty around the impact of JCP's new pricing strategy on American Living (<5% of total sales) poses additional risk. Our range is now $146-154 (down from $157-165), based on 18-19x our FY2013E EPS, a slightly lower multiple than we were using previously to reflect the comparables and increased macro risk


    Reitingumuutust põhjendatakse eelkõige sellega, et Tiffany (TIF) kärpis eile oma kasumiprognoose, kuna pühade hooaeg kujunes oodatust nõrgemaks. RL on oma olemuselt TIF-le üsna sarnane, kuna nii Ralph Laureni kui ka Tiffany oluline osa poodidest asub New Yorkis, kus viimase müük kohalikele klientidele oli 1% väiksem tõenäoliselt tänu pangatöötajate kokku kuivanud boonustele. Samamoodi nagu Tiffanyl RL-l oluline osa Euroopa käibest just UK-st, kus TIF teatas olukorra jätkuvast halvenemisest.
    Kuigi Ralph Laureni kaubamärk on endiselt edukas ja ettevõtte kasvuprognoosid jätkuvalt head, siis halvenevad makrotrendid võivad hakata pistitama RL-i.

    RL-i aktsia on üldisest müügisurvest suhteliselt puutumata jäänud, aga eilne Tiffany hoiatus võib investorid murelikuks teha ning Wells Fargo juhib tähelepanu kahe firma sarnasustele. Paraku Wells Fargo callid väga laia kõlapinda pole tavaliselt leidnud, aga kaldun arvama, et tänane downgrade võib olla erandiks, sest sentiment on aktsia suhtes olnud siiani väga positiivne.

    Eelturul kaupleb RL $ 145,30 juures, 1,3% miinuspoolel.

  • Diamond Foods pops to the highs on an uptick in intraday volume, but stalling out a bit up along recent range highs near the $33.80 area
  • COG peaks üsna pea kauplema pealpool $74
  • Reuters reporting senior EU banking sources say Greek bond swap deal talks to fall short of target, governments may have to fill gap
  • RL just kõige paremat võimalust täna ei pakkunud. Aktsia on küll terve päev miinuspoolel kaubelnud, aga üsna kitsas hinnavahemikus. Aktsia avanes $ 144,03 pealt ja peale avanemist vajus korra pool punkti allapoole, et siis uuesti üles $ 145 juurde liikuda.Ka hetkel kaupleb aktsia sama taseme juures ehk 1,6% miinuspoolel.
  • Charles River trades off lows on increased volume; Hearing analyst discussing potential M&A

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