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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 18. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Kuigi USA indeksid lõpetasid eilse päeva positiivse noodiga, siis pärast protsendist hüpet avanemisel ei jätkunud jõudu seda hoida, mis on pullide elu muutnud positsioonide lisamisel keeruliseks. Aga ega kurta ka ei saa, kui S&P 500 on sel aastal lõpetanud miinuses vaid kahel päeval ning YTD tootlus on +2,87%. Katalüsaatoriks oli eilsetele liikumistele vahelduseks taas makro, mis kujunes oodatust paremaks nii Hiinas, Saksamaal kui ka USA-s.

    Üks teema, millele jätkuvalt konkreetset lahendust oodatakse, on Kreeka valitsuse ja erasektori vahelised läbirääkimised haircuti suuruse ja kupongimaksete osas. Üks osalistest (Marathon Asset Managment) tõdes eile Bloombergis, et kokkulepe saavutatakse ning uued võlakirjad saavad olema 20-30 aastased 4-5%lise intressiga, kuid kokkuvõttes tähendab see NPV põhjal 68%list haircuti. Juhul kui kokkulepet täna ei saavutata, on Papademos valmis sundima kreeditore läbi seaduse kahjumeid vastu võtma.

    Makro poole tooks välja Suurbritannia töötuabiraha taotluste (kl 11.30) ja USA detsembri tööstustoodangu muutuse (16.15). Majandustulemused raporteerivad enne turgu Goldman Sachs, pärast turgu aga eBay.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel nulli lähedal.
  • Maailmapank avaldas eile oma värsked majanduskasvu prognoosid ning näeb nüüd pilti veidi tumedamates toonides, kui globaalset kasvuootust langetati 3,6% pealt 2,5%le (siit saab pikemalt lugeda). Jaanuari lõpus peaks oma prognoosid avaldama ka IMF.

    World Bank lowers 2012 growth forecast to 5.4% for developing countries and 1.4% for high-income countries (-0.3% for the Euro Area), down from its June estimates of 6.2% and 2.7% (1.8%for the Euro Area), respectively
  • Fitch hoiatas, et Itaaliat võib ees oodata reitingu langetamine kahe pügala võrra.
  • Suurbritannia ILO töötusmäär tõusis 10 baaspunkti võrra 8,4% peale ehk kõrgeimale tasemele alates 1996. aastast.
  • IMF Said to Seek $1 Trillion Resource-Boost Amid Euro Crisis
  • Samal ajal aktsiaturgudel riskisentiment paranab, otsib vaatamata rekordmadalatele yieldidele raha jätkuvalt kohta ka võlakirjaturgudel. Saksamaa müüs täna 2a võlga yieldiga 0,17% vs 0,29% eelmisel sarnasel oksjonil. Bid to cover 2,2 vs 1,4 varem.
  • üks suurimaid kannatajaid S&P eelmise nädala reitingukärpe laines on olnud Portugal, kelle võlga ei hinnata enam investeerimisvääriliseks. FT artikkel kirjutab, et see on sundinud paljusid fondijuhte likvideerima positsioone. CDSide põhjal hinnatakse Portugali maksevõimetuse riski tõenäosust 65%liseks.

    Many investors were also forced to sell Portuguese bonds after Standard & Poor’s downgraded the country to junk on Friday. Other funds sold Portuguese debt after Lisbon was removed from Citigroup’s European Bond Index, which these investors track, because of its fall to junk status.
    The markets are pricing in a 65 per cent chance that Portugal will default over the next five years, according to credit default swaps as these instruments, which protect investors from default, leapt to record highs this week.


    Portugali 10a yield
  • väikesed arusaamatused...

    Headlines also crossing that IMF is proposing to boost the facility by $500 bln not the $1 trl previously mentioned according to anonymous source
  • Goldman Sachs prelim $1.84 vs $1.22 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Goldman Sachs prelim revs $6.05 bln vs $6.32 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LLTC +8.1%, ASML +2.6%, TSM +1.8% (light volume), GS +1.1%, APH +0.6% (light volume).

    A few European financial related names showing strength: NBG +6.7%, ING +5.1%, UBS +2.4%, CS +2.3%, DB +2%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: BBL +2.1%, BHP +1.8%, KGC +1.8%, AG +1.7%, GOLD +1.4%, MT +1.4%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing modest strength: RIG +1.4%, TOT +1.2%, BP +0.4%.

    A few semi related names are lifting following LLTC results:
    STM +4%, ADI +2.8%, FCS +2.2%, MXIM +2%, TXN +1.9%, ONNN +1.9%.

    Other news: CBRX +14.2% (modestly rebounding from yesterday's 50%+ drop), XOMA +8.3% (acquires U.S. Rights to Perindopril Franchise and Establishes Commercial Operations), UEPS +6.5% (ticking higher, unit received a Letter of Award from the South African Social Security Agency for the provision of payment services for social grants in all of South Africa's nine provinces for a period of five years), TASR +5.1% (Chicago Police Department upgrades to new TASER X2), HEK +4.5% (CEO appears on CNBC and discusses why investors should take interest in the stock), YHOO +3.1% (announces resignation of Jerry Yang), PMCS +2.7% (Relational Investors discloses 7.17% stake in 13D filing; firm states board may need to consider broader strategic alternatives), RCL +2.6% (modestly rebounding with CCL), CCL +2.4% (Carnival Corp & plc Chairman and CEO statement Regarding Costa Concordia), SAP +1.7% (reports antitrust clearances received with respect to SAP's cash tender offer to acquire SuccessFactors),.

    Analyst comments: LNG +1.4% (initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse), MGM +0.7% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: COOL -24.5%, CREE -4.1% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Ticonderoga, downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Pacific Crest), BK -3.6%, FAST -3.4%.

    M&A related: RIMM -4.9% (Samsung says it is not interested in RIMM, according to reports).

    Other news: NGLS -3.4% (announces public offering of 4 mln common units), ERF -1.7% (announces equity offering, announces $800 mln 2012 capital spending program), TGT -1.6% (temporarily suspends efforts to sell credit card receivables).

    Analyst comments: TXT -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan),-F JACK -1% (initiated with an Underperform at Wedbush), GOOG -0.7% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), TEF -0.4% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS ).
  • Amphenol prelim $0.73 vs $0.70 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $949 mln vs $932.13 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Amphenol sees Q1 $0.73-0.76 vs $0.72 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $960-975 mln vs $939.65 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Amphenol sees FY12 $3.23-3.34 vs $3.20 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $4.05-4.15 bln vs $4.05 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate


  • Williams-Sonoma upgraded to Strong Buy from Market Perform at Raymond James
  • Still Climbing a Wall of Worry
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Jan 18, 2012 | 8:38 AM

    "The passion to get ahead is sometimes born of the fear lest we be left behind." --Eric Hoffer

    Since the bottom in March 2009, one of the most challenging aspects of this market has been its tendency to perform well when the mood is sanguine. We consistently see good uptrends and strong moves even though there is no real excitement or few positive feelings about the action.

    So far in 2012, we have had another good example of this. We have been chugging along nicely in the first 10 days of trading, and sentiment polls reflect a very high level of bullishness, but we have very few signs of good old-fashioned momentum that tends to accomplish market moves like this in the past.

    This is partly due to the most recent advance coming entirely on three gap ups on three successive Tuesdays. If we exclude those moves, the market has done very little, so it shouldn't be surprising that we don't have much strong momentum or wild buying. Market players aren't steadily accumulating shares and chasing strength. What has worked is guessing at what happens overnight. But buying the close and selling the open doesn't create momentum or excitement.

    While the bulls have not produced sustained momentum, they have been quite aggressive buying dips. We have had excellent underlying support, which helps maintain a positive bias, even though the upside momentum is muted.

    There are two emotions at work that give the market its strong support. First, is the fear of underperforming. These big gap-up opens that have produced all our gains have left many folks underinvested. It isn't that they are particularly bearish but that the market never allowed easy entry to be underinvested. Those folks are anxious to add long exposure, but they don't want to chase. Hence, they aggressively buy pullbacks and that keeps a strong bid under the market.

    The other emotion at work is the wall of worry, which is a variation of the fear of underperforming. As has been the case for a long time, there is no shortage of macro concerns. Europe is still a mess, economic reports are mixed, earnings are problematic and we still have issues with unemployment and real estate. It is easy to make a bearish case and that creates pessimism, but when the market refuses to go down in the face of all those issues, it creates fear of being left behind. The longer the market holds up through the negativity, the more frustrated folks become and the more likely they are to put cash to work so they don't miss out.

    The fear of being left behind is driving this market and it's the reason the action doesn't feel upbeat. Market players aren't buying because of optimism and positive feelings. They are buying because they are afraid that they may be wrong not to be more positive. The result is good underlying support but muted momentum and a lack of positive feelings.

    Unfortunately, that makes for difficult trading as trend-following and a momentum approach don't work well. What works better is buying dips and flipping quickly for smaller gains. It's tougher to hold positions, and the risks are often higher, but focusing on relative strength has not been rewarded lately.

    We are moving into the bulk of earnings season and that is going to be the main market mover in the near term. I don't expect the psychology above to change, but the risk of bouts of profit-taking are high if there's negative news flow.

    The best approach is to focus on grinding out smaller gains and not to be too caught up in macro arguments. Stay quick and optimistic and try not to force a style on the market that isn't working. I prefer to buy momentum and good charts, but that isn't working so I have to adapt.

    We have a slightly positive start. I look for strong underlying support to hold this market up reasonably well.
  • December Capacity Utilization 78.1% vs 78.1% Briefing.com consensus
    December Industrial Production +0.4% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus
  • David Einhorn, kes on Greenlight Capitali fondijuht ning kelle arvamust ka investorid kõrgelt hindavad, teatas oma kahest lühikese positsiooni sulgemisest:
    David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital hedge fund said they closed their short position in First Solar $FSLR for a big gain.
    Einhorn's Greenlight closed out their short in Diamond Foods $DMND "While small it was one of the fast performing shorts in our history"

    FSLR kaupleb hetkel ligi 5% plusspoolel ($ 41,95) ja DMND 4,8% kõrgemal ($ 31,45).
  • Zerohedge`i vahendusel saab lugeda ka Einhorni kirja oma investoritele, kus ta räägib lõppenud aastast ning teeb prognoose käesolevaks aastaks ja muu hulgas ütleb järgmist:
    "The global environment is very complicated. On the one hand the Federal Reserve has taken a much-needed break from quantitative easing (at least for the moment). Accordingly, inflation in oil and food has abated, providing relief to the US economy. Bearish forecasts that the US was headed back into recession proved wrong for the third time since the end of the last recession. On the other hand, Asia appears to be in much worse shape than it was at this time last year and could be a drag on the world economy going forward. Very few people trust any of the economic data coming out of China, making it difficult to gauge the situation there. Some of the smartest people we know have very dim views. The Chinese have been a leading growth engine for the last two decades and are largely credit with leading the world out of the recession in 2009. A change in their economic circumstances could really upend things."
  • Egan Jones downgrades Germany to AA- from AA
  • See reitinguagentuuride downgrade-mise võidujooks hakkab ikka väga naljakaks kätte minema. Nüüd siis EJ leidis, et nad saavad Saksamaaga esimesed olla ja esilehele pääseda (ja ehk siis natuke kuulsamaks ja edaspidi rohkem pappi)...
  • Cheniere Energy (LNG): Hearing initiated with a Buy at BTIG
  • Nasdaq 100 approaches/pauses just under its 12 year close high from last July at 2429 -- session high 2425
  • Wunderlich notes a Washington-based firm has sent higher education stocks reeling today with the rumor "from multiple sources" that the administration was contemplating using an Executive Order to redefine 90/10 to include Veteran's Administration GI Bill benefits as well as Department of Defense "Tuition Assistance" revenues in the definition of Title IV sources. Firm says multiple experts they have spoken to insist that the statutory language around the definition of 90/10 and its components is too specific to allow for this type of change. Another source inside the Chronicle of Higher Education tells them that the White House has denied any truth to the rumor. (APOL, DV, STRA, BPI, CPLA, LOPE, COCO, BPI)
  • F5 Networks prelim $1.05 vs $1.01 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $322.4 mln vs $319.06 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    F5 Networks sees Q2 $1.05-1.07 vs $1.05 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $332-337 mln vs $330.70 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    FFIV kaupleb järelturul 8% plusspoole, $ 114,65 kandis.

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