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Börsipäev 30. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Nädalavahetusel jäi suurimaks kõneaineks Kreeka, keda FT artikli kohaselt soovitakse kõvemini pihtide vahele võtta, kui Saksa valitsus nõuab 130 miljardi euro suuruse abipaketi vastu Kreeka riigieelarve otsuste vetoõigust. Pühapäeval aga seisis Kreeka rahandusminister Evangelos Venizelos oma avalduses sellele tuliselt vastu, tõdedes et neil on juba piisavalt palju eelarve monitoorimist ning sellise sammuga võetakse nende riigilt eneseväärikus.

    Euroopa liidrid kohtuvad täna mitteametlikult, et üritada leida ühist keelt valitsustevahelises fiskaallepingus, mis peaks allkirjastamisele minema märtsis. Antud lepingu eesmärgiks on tugevdada fiskaaldistsipliini ja juurutada täiendavaid automaatseid sanktsioone ning eelarve järelvalvet riikide põhiseadustes. Tõenäoliselt Kreeka ametlikult väga palju jutuks ei tule, kuna Troika võla jätkusuutlikkuse raport ei pidanud selleks ajaks valmis saama.

    Makro poolel avalikustatakse täna kell 11.00 Hispaania neljanda kvartali SKT muutus, kell 15.30 USA isiklike sissetulekute ja tarbimise detsembrikuu muutus ning kell 17.30 Dallas Fedi töötleva tööstuse jaanuari küsitlus.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad -0,6% jagu punases ning Euroopa on sarnase miinusega.
  • Itaalia võlakirjade yieldid on teinud jaanuaris läbi korraliku languse, mistõttu saab tänasel võlakirjaoksjonil olema huvitav jälgida, kas nõudlus kinnitab jätkuvat huvi. Müüa üritatakse kuni 4 miljardi euro ulatuses 2017 ja kuni 2 miljardi euro väärtuses 2022 võlakirju. Lisaks on laual veel 2016 ja 2021.a aegumisega võlakirjad.
    Itaalia 10 yield
  • Tulles tagasi reedel avaldatud USA neljanda kvartali SKT muutuse juurde, siis Deutschel on päris hea joonis kokku pandud, mis peegeldab läbi ajaloo üht kõige nõrgemat majandussurutise järgset taastumist. Seda vaatamata ühele sügavaimale retsessioonile, mille järel peaks majandus seda võimsamalt taastuma.

    The reason this is a problem is two-fold in our opinion. 1) It shows that this is a very different recovery to
    most and one that we collectively have very little experience in analysing. The evidence is mounting all the
    time that growth is being held back by the end of the multi-decade debt super-cycle; 2) It makes it very
    difficult to grow quickly out of the huge debt problem. Indeed Debt/GDP ratios across the Western World
    are in many places still growing, especially in the public sector. So sluggish growth and high debts across
    the whole of the Western World leave us more vulnerable to shocks for a long period ahead. Although
    markets are in a healthy state at the moment it would only take a relatively mild cross-wind to expose the
    problems again. We desperately need decent growth across the Developed World in order to reduce the
    fragility of the system.

  • Saksamaa jaanuarikuu tarbijahinnaindeks tõusis 10 baaspunkti 2,3% peale (Y/Y).
  • Väike kokkuvõte ka käimasolevast tulemustehooajast, kui 174 S&P 500 ettevõtet on siiani avaldanud oma numbrid, peegeldades üht nõrgimat kvartalit viimastel aastatel. EPSi ootuste ületamise/allajäämise suhe on 67%/32% (madalaim alates 2008 4. kvartalist) ja müügitulu vastav näitaja 57%/43% (sama, mis eelmisel kvartalil, kuid ületamise osakaal on alla viie aasta keskmise 61%). Euroopas on tulemuste avalikustamine suhteliselt varajases faasis veel, kui 48% 33st Stoxx 600 firmast on suutnud lüüa konsensuse aktsiakasumi ootusi (madalaim alates 2005.a). Müügitulude pool on aga veidi parem.
  • Hispaania majandus kasvas neljandas kvartalis 0,3% (YoY), mis on mõnevõrra parem oodatud 0,2%st. Võrreldes kolmanda kvartaliga, näidati siiski -0,3% langust, ühtides ootusega.
  • Itaalia jaanuarikuu äriusalduse indeks langes eelmise kuu 92,5 pealt madalaima tasemeni alates 2009. aasta novembrist ehk 92,1 punktini.
  • Barry Ritholtzy blogis on huvitav postitus erinevate keskpankade bilansside kohta. Endale üllatuseks on EKP ja FEDi kõrval suurimaks rahapakkumise kasvatajaks olnud Hiina keskpank ning Jaapani keskpank jääb teiste kõrval veel suhteliselt konservatiivseks. Mis juhtub siis, kui ühel päeval tuleb tagurpidi käik sisse lükata ja turgudel likviidsust kokku korjama hakata.
  • Itaalia 2022 aasta võlakirja yieldiks kujunes oksjonil 6,08% vs 6,98% detsembri lõpus.Bid to cover 1,416 vs 1,36 varem. 5aastase võlakirja maht jäi aga maksimaalsest veidi puudu, kui soovitud 4 miljardi asemel müüdi 3,574 miljardi väärtuses võlga yieldiga 5,39%. Bid to cover 5a puhul 1,29 vs 1,42 detsembris.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 Volatility Index (V2X) avanes täna üle 9% kõrgemal, olles terve jaanuari suhteliselt stabiilselt langenud.

  • Vaikselt hakkavad ka valitsused oma kasvuootusi allapoole tooma. Prantsusmaa pidi peagi sama tegema.

    Headlines crossing that Spain's PM Rajoy says country will not meet its growth targets for 2012, will unveil new plans on Feb 10
  • Zerohedge vahendab viimase nädala arenguid Hiina kinnisvaraturul, mis ühest küljest on küll uusaasta pühade tõttu teatud määral mõjutatud, ent sellegipoolest võrdlemisi tähelepanuväärne

    - New home transactions by area plunged 89% W/w in Jan. 23-Jan. 29 to 4,400 sq/m, Uwin says in e-mailed statement.
    - Sales during Chinese New Year holiday decline to lowest level since 2006 for same period; volume 36% of 7-yr avg. for CNY holiday
    - Avg. new home price down 41% W/w
  • Merrill Lynch tõstab täna Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale ja hinnasihi $ 74 pealt $ 105 peale.

    We are upgrading REGN shares from Neutral to Buy and raising our PO from $74 to $105 following better than expected Eylea survey results. In what is our fifth survey of the wet AMD market, we found surprisingly high use of Eylea in the last two months and high near-term intent to use, driven by Eylea's dose frequency advantage. We expect 2012 Eylea sales will be significantly ahead of consensus and company guidance ($140-160mn). We model 2012 sales at $200mn and peak sales of $2.6bn in 2020 (up from $1.7bn in 2018), with the latter driven by strong survey interest in diabetic macular edema (DME). Risks to our estimates are slower than expected uptake of Eylea and failure of pipeline products.

    Analüütikud on REGN suhtes muutunud postiivseks uue info põhjal, mis tulenes uuringust firma ravimi Eylea müügi arengute kohta. Viimase kahe kuu jooksul on ravimi vastu huvi olnud üllatavalt suur ning ühtlasi on kõrge ka näitaja nende hulgas, kes kavatsevad ravimit kasutama hakata. Analüütikud usuvad, et Eylea käesoleva aasta müüginumbrid tulevad märkimisväärselt üle konsensuse ja ka firma enda prognoosidest ($ 140-160 miljonit). Analüütikud prognoosivad, et 2012. aasta käive peaks ulatuma $ 200 miljonini.

    Antud calli puhul on oluline tähelepanu pöörata sellele, et Eylea oodatust hoogsamast müügist teatas firma juba 10. jaanuaril ja aktsiahind on alates sealt üle 40% tõusunud ehk teisisõnu on edukas müük juba osaliselt kindlasti aktsiahinda sisse arvatud. Teisest küljest tähistab Merrill Lynchi $ 105-line hinnasiht aga new street high`d ja REGN puhul on tegemist ka väga hea liikujaga.

    Hetkel kaupleb REGN eelturul 1,5% plusspoolel, $ 87 taseme juures.

  • Vaatamata sellele, et Itaalia võlga müüdi tänasel oksjonil suhteliselt rahuldavate tulemustega, siis närvilisus on turgudel taas pead tõstnud ning Itaalia 10a yield tagasi üle 6%.

  • December PCE Prices- Core M/M +0.2% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus
    December PCE Prices Core Y/Y +1.8%
    December Personal Spending 0.0% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus
    December Personal income +0.5% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SIFY -3.2%, PHG -2.5%, (ticking lower).

    M&A related: ISTA -19.1% (Valeant Pharmaceuticals withdraws offer for acquisition of ISTA), PMC -9.1% (Omnicare confirms FTC position blocking co to purchase PharMerica).

    Select financial related names showing weakness: DB -4.8%, ING -3.9%, BCS -3.2%, UBS -2.1%, HBC -2.1%, JPM -1.2% (removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman), C -1% (Citigroup Chairman Richard Parsons is considering stepping down, according to reports), BAC -1.8% (rearranging leaders of its investment banking unit, according to reports).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: MT -4.4%, GFI -2.5%, AG -2.1%, ABX -1.8%, SLV -1.5%, HMY -1.4%, GOLD -1.4%, GLD -1.1%.

    Other news: BNVI -36.5% (Bionovo to voluntarily delist from NASDAQ), CTIC -16.5% (withdraws New Drug Application for Pixuvri; plans to resubmit in 2012), CLNE -1.5% (files to sell 15 million shares of stock for shareholders).

    Analyst comments: OMC -2.9% (light volume, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital), MNST -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust), CF -1.8% (downgraded to Hold at Dahlman Rose), SPLS -1.2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), PG -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital).
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HNP +1.9% (ticking higher).

    M&A related: PBY +23.8% (Pep Boys to be acquired by Gores Group for $15.00/share), TNB +22.4% (to be acquired by ABB for $72 per share), LCC +7.3% (trading higher following WSJ article suggesting M&A deal with Delta), TIN +0.5% (International Paper, Temple-Inland Extend DOJ Review Period).

    Other news: AMLN +15.9% and ALKS +4.7% (resumed trading; Amylin Pharma and Alkermes receive approval for BYDUREON from the FDA), GTXI +14.2% (still checking), MNTA +3.6% (will replace HealthSpring in the S&P SmallCap 600 index after the close), YGE +0.7% (entered into a supply agreement with IBC SOLAR), CY +0.3% (following positive mention at MadMoney), .

    Analyst comments: REGN +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill).
  • Ready for a Rest
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Jan 30, 2012 | 8:34 AM EST

    "Sometimes the most urgent thing you can possibly do is take a complete rest." --Ashleigh Brilliant

    Overseas markets are all in negative territory this morning and U.S. futures are weak as eurozone worries take hold again. We probably shouldn't be at all surprised that Greece has not hammered out a debt deal yet. In addition, Spain is saying it is not going to make its growth targets for 2012, there are sovereign debt downgrades, and worries about today's European Union summit are adding to the pressure.

    Unfortunately for the bulls, the market has been increasingly extended on lighter volume and is in a very vulnerable position for some sort of correction. As usual, we have continued to run up longer than many of the bears anticipated, but sooner or later the rules of gravity always apply and it looks like we have news catalysts for some corrective action today.

    Some may point to the odd action Friday as a warning sign that a pullback was due. Although the indices were weak, we had strong positive breadth and a high level of speculation in many Internet names due to news of an upcoming Facebook public-offering filing. Quite a few traders were high-fiving each other as they played some aggressive moves in stocks that haven't done much in a while.

    The conventional wisdom is that speculative bursts like that often signal that the market is too frothy and in need of a correction. I don't particular agree with that thinking but the technical condition of the indices isn't very supportive of further upside right now. I'll be watching to see if the Facebook news can help to keep some of these pockets of momentum percolating. I suspect traders will be itching for more action and may make it a self-fulfilling proposition.

    So far in 2012, the key to this market has been the dip-buyers. The have shown up almost every single day and have prevented any notable pullbacks. Thursday was our first negative trend day of the year and our first indication that the dip-buyers may be losing some zeal. Typically, it takes a few failed bounces before the dip buyers lose their resolve and we will have to watch carefully for that.

    I'm hopeful that good stock-picking, like we saw Friday, will take hold again this week. Unfortunately, the tendency when Europe has become an issue is for stocks to move in lockstep with the headlines. That was one of the things that made the market particularly challenging for traders in the latter half of 2011. It was all about market timing rather than stock-picking, which, for many traders, is not nearly as appealing.

    We'll see what the dip-buyers do with this open. The key will be to hold above the early lows and not let another trend-down day develop. Speculative action in Facebook plays should be on the radar again but it is going to require some aggressive trading to profit.
  • Citi tõstab GTx Inc (GTXI) hinnasihi $ 8 pealt $ 19 peale, mis aktsia eilset sulgumishinda arvesse võttes, annab 382%-lise võimaliku tootluse.
    Analüütikud on võtnud firma prognooside hindamisel nüüd sisse ka ettevõte arenduses oleva ravimi Ostarine, millele Citi ka tulevikus edu ootab. Ostarine puhul on tegemist ravimiga, mis peaks aitama patsiente, kellel esineb lihasnõrkust ja nimetatud sümptom on eriti omane just vähki põdevatel inimestel. Hetkel lihasnõrkuse leevendamiseks olemasolevad abivahendid on ebaefektiivsed. Kui ravim peaks saama heakskiidu, siis on seda võimalik kasutada paljude vähipatsientide puhul ning ühtlasi ka nende patsientide aitamiseks, kellel on lihasenõrkus tekkinud erinevate krooniliste haiguste tagajärjel. Kui ravimit saadab edu, siis hindavad analüütikud,et see oleks väärt vähemalt $ 11 aktsia kohta.

    Sellest tulenevalt usuvad analüütikud, et GTXI näol on tegemist paljulubava biotehnoloogiafirmaga, mis 12-15 kuu perspektiivis võib anda märkmisväärse tootluse.
    Our previous PT of $8 only gave credit to the Capesaris program. We are now adding Ostarine to our valuation. The Ph 3 trials of Ostarine for the prevention and treatment of cancer-related muscle wasting will have results in about a year’s time.
    We believe it has a high likelihood of success, in which case we estimate that it is worth at least $11 per share. Importantly, as it is a novel product in a novel indication, we believe it could attract interest from biopharma companies with oncology products.

    What is Ostarine – Ostarine is a SARM (selective androgen receptor modulator) currently being tested for prevention of muscle wasting in patients with non-small celllung cancer (NSCLC). Muscle wasting is an important symptom of cancer with no approved treatment. Current options are ineffective and palliative in nature. If proved efficacious and safe, it could be used in a wider range of cancer patients as well as muscle wasting caused by other chronic diseases. We estimate US Ostarine peak sales of $760M in 2020, adding $11/sh to our valuation

    Why we Believe it will Work — The Ostarine clinical program to date included 8 trials with approximately 600 patients and has shown consistent results in improving lean body mass and physical function in different patient populations. When evaluated in NSCLC patients (n=61), Ostarine showed compelling efficacy with 69% of pts
    improving physical function and 63% improving on lean body mass endpoint vs 33% for placebo group on both endpoints.

    Our view on the Stock — We believe GTXI is currently one of the most compelling small-cap biotech companies, with multiple shots on goal. While most investors are still remembering the old toremifene story, we have focused on the current pipeline. We believe both Ostarine and Capesaris are novel compounds with compelling risk-
    reward opportunities. With their exact profile revealed over the next 12 to 15 months, the stock could have substantial upside.


    Eelturul kaupleb aktsia juba 26% plusspoolel ja seetõttu on raske öelda, kas aktsias auru ka peale avanemist jätkub, kuna sellised hinnasihid pole biotehnoloogiaettevõtete puhul midagi väga erakordset, aga kahtlemata leiavad alati tähelepanu.

  • Headlines crossing that France's PM lowers 2012 GDP forecast to 0.5% from 1.0%
  • Con-way named short Research Tactical Idea at Morgan Stanley
  • Polypore Intl weakness being attributed to cautious initiation before the open at boutique firm Axiom; firm initiated with a Sell and a $26 tgt
  • Angela Merkel ütles täna, et nädalavahetusel välja käidud Kreekale "võlatsaari" loomise idee ei kõlba kuhugi.
    Merkel told reporters in Brussels that:

    I believe that we are having a discussion that we shouldn't be having.

    She added that Europe must help Greece to bring in the austerity measures and economic reforms it has promised, adding:

    All that will only work if Greece and all other states discuss this together.
  • Portugali 5-aastase võlakirja tulusus on teinud täna uue rekordi 22,937% tasemel - samal tasemel, kus Kreeka oma kauples neli kuud tagasi. Euroopa Keskpank on väidetavalt täna Portugali võlga ostnud, kuid tõenäoliselt siis lühiajalist.
  • REGN puhul osutus mu kartus kahjuks õigeks. Aktsia oli positiivsete uudiste peale juba nii palju rallinud,et tänase negatiivse turu taustal paraku enam rammu ülespoole liikuda polnud ja turuosalised otsustasid päeva alguses oma kasumid pigem lukku panna. Aktsia avanes $ 86,79 juures, aga kukkus peale avanemist isegi oma eilse sulgumishinna alla ehk $ 85 juurde. Nüüdseks on aktsia küll taastunud ja kaupleb oma avanemistasemete juures ehk $ 87 kandis, 1,7% plusspoolel.
    GTXI-l seevastu jätkus ka peale avanemist rammu küllaga. Aktsia avanes $ 4,85 peal ja hetkeks on rallinud juba $ 5,25 peale, kaubeldes 33% plusspoolel.



  • Nelli Janson
    REGN puhul osutus mu kartus kahjuks õigeks. Aktsia oli positiivsete uudiste peale juba nii palju rallinud,et tänase negatiivse turu taustal paraku enam rammu ülespoole liikuda polnud ja turuosalised otsustasid päeva alguses oma kasumid pigem lukku panna. Aktsia avanes $ 86,79 juures, aga kukkus peale avanemist isegi oma eilse sulgumishinna alla ehk $ 85 juurde. Nüüdseks on aktsia küll taastunud ja kaupleb oma avanemistasemete juures ehk $ 87 kandis, 1,7% plusspoolel.
    GTXI-l seevastu jätkus ka peale avanemist rammu küllaga. Aktsia avanes $ 4,85 peal ja hetkeks on rallinud juba $ 5,25 peale, kaubeldes 33% plusspoolel.





    Alles nüüd on siis REGN liikuma saanud. Aktsia kaupleb hetkel $88,80 juures, 3,8% plusspoolel.
  • Headlines crossing that sources say EU Leaders have agreed to bring permanent ESM on line in July; to sign a treaty at a later stage
  • Reuters story discusses EU summit agreement on the introduction of permanent bailout fund
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/30/eu-esm-deal-idUSL5E8CU3VE20120130[/url]
  • Headlines crossing that EU leaders have agreed to a new fiscal treaty
  • Permanent bailout fund tähendab mida? Me jäämegi tuletõrjujate ühenduseks? Permanentselt on püsti asutus, kuhu kogutakse liidu riikide "kirsturaha"?
    Kõlab väga halvaendeliselt. Lühendada ka ei saa - PBF. Kõlab nagu PBK või ORT või PTP või Selhospromstroimaterjal. Näe, isegi jänkidel on ilusa nimega aga koleda mõistega TARP :-).
  • Reconciliation with Q4 GDP

    Although fourth quarter GDP missed expectations, growth levels looked healthy on the surface. As we expected, though, most of the gain came from highly volatile inventory changes. Real final sales, which exclude inventories, eroded dramatically from third quarter levels and increased at the slowest pace since Q1 2011.

    The economy seems poised to weaken substantially and grow below trend in Q1 2012 with inventories expected to shift downward next quarter, efforts to choke back government spending, and a lack of solid growth in any economic sector.

    Structural problems that hampered the economy for the past few years, however, may be finally abating. For instance: initial claims have fallen to levels not seen since 2008, underscoring the improved labor situation; consumer debt, while still well above normal levels, is tracking lower and is on pace to return to its long term, pre-credit boom, trend this year; and the number of homes under construction is trending higher for the first time since housing peaked in 2006, suggesting that inventories have finally returned to equilibrium levels.
  • Headlines crossing that the U.K. and Czech Republic would not join the treaty
  • France's Sarkozy and Germany's Merkel opposed to placing Greece under budgetary control
  • $WAB Volume Alert - Currently at 5 x average daily volume
  • * Hearing Wabtec Price Spikedown Due to Railroads being Given More Time to Install Crash Technology

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