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Börsipäev 1. veebruar

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  • Jaanuaris tõusid globaalsed aktsiaturud (MSCI All Country World Index) USDis +5.8% ja EURis +4.9%. Ühe kuu kohta on tegu väga suurte liikumistega ning see peaks olema parim aasta algus alates 1994. aastast.
  • Kuigi viimastel päevadel võis USA turgudel täheldada momentumi kadumist, siis kokkuvõttes näitas S&P 500 terve kuu peale vägagi sümpaatset 4,4%list tootlust (eurodes 3,6%), mis on ajalooliselt 20. parim jaanuarikuu alates 1928. aastast. Ja kogu selle perioodi peale kujunes suurimaks päevaseks languseks -0,6%, mis pole nii tagasihoidlik varem jaanuaris kunagi olnud ja peegeldab hästi üsna emotsioonitut ja jaanuariefektist lummatud turgu.


    Tänasest makrost võiks välja tuua eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse jaanuari lõpliku PMI indeksi (kl 11.00), Suurbritannia jaanuari PMI (kl 11.28), eurotsooni jaanuari inflatsiooni (kl 12.00), USA jaanuari ADP (kl 15.15), USA detsembri ehituskulude muutuse ja ISM indeksi (kl 17.00). Lühiajalist võlga müüb täna Portugal, Saksamaa pakub aga 10a võlakirja.
  • Facebooki IPO korraldamise põhirolli on kuuldavasti endale saanud Morgan Stanley, kes on varasematel aastatel mitme internetisektori ettevõtte börsiletulekuga juba hiilanud. 2011. aastal tegi Morgan Stanley USA interneti-IPOdest 20% ja kogu USA aktsiaturu IPOdest mahu poolest 13%, millega oldi suurim IPOde korraldaja USAs. Suuremahulise Facebooki IPO endale saamine aitab tõenäoliselt Morgan Stanley'l ka sel aastal suurimaks IPOde läbiviijaks tõusta.

    Link Bloombergi artiklile.
  • Eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse jaanuari lõplik PMI 0,1 punkti võrra parem 48,8 vs oodatud 48,7
  • Ka Saksamaa lõplik tootmissektori PMI tuli oodatud 50,9 asemel 0,1 punkti parem. Kuid väga positiivse üllatuse tegi Suurbritannia PMI näit, mis tõusis eelmise kuu 49,7 pealt 52,1 punktini vs oodatud 50,0.
  • inflatsioon langes eurotsoonis eelmisel kuul 0,1 protsendipunkti võrra 2,7% peale, mis oli ka konsensuse ootuseks
  • Tänasega on selge, et Deutsche Börse AG ja NYSE Euronexti ühinemist ei toimu. Eile teatas Euroopa Komisjon, et ühinemisele oma heakskiitu ei anna ja seda just konkurentsiga seotud küsimuste tõttu. Ühinemisel oleks tekkinud maailma suurim börs ja kolmandik kõigist aktsiatega tehtavaist tehinguist oleks toimuma hakanud just seal.
  • MCP on eelturul hoo sisse saanud selle uudise peale.
    Molycorp ticks higher in pre-market, strength attributed to Reuters headlines saying Molymet taking a $390 mln stake in MCP.
    Aktsia kaupleb juba üle 8% kõrgemal, $ 33,56 juures

  • January ADP Employment Change 170K vs 200K Briefing.com consensus
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: KTCC +28.4%, AZPN +11%, FTNT +10.5%, WHR +8.6%, STX +7.4%, MTW +5.6%, ALV +5.6%, TMO +3.9% (light volume), MPC +3.8% (announces evaluation of strategic alternatives for midstream assets), AOL +3.6%, BRCM +2.6% (also increases quarterly dividend 11% to $0.10 from $0.09 per share; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Auriga), AET +2.1% (light volume), ACE +1.7%, BEAV +1.1%, NAV +1.1%.

    Financial related names showing strength: RBS +4.5%, NBG +2.7%, STD +2.7%, DB +2.6%, CS +2.4%, MS +2.1%, PUK +2.1%, HBC +2.1%, BCS +1.8%, C +1.6% (Citigroup upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo), BAC +1%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +2.3%, SLV +1.8%, CLF +1.7%, AA +1.6%, GOLD +1.2%, GLD +0.2%.

    Select oil/coal related names showing strength: WLT +2.7%, PCX +2.6%, WFT +2.2%, RIG +2.2%, JRCC +1.7%, SD +0.5%.

    Other news: MDVN +17.3% (Medivation and Astellas announce positive results from the Phase 3 AFFIRM trial of MDV3100), SGMO +7% (the co and Shire entered into a collaboration and license agreement to develop therapeutics for hemophilia and other monogenic diseases based on Sangamo's zinc finger DNA-binding protein technology), MCP +4.9% (strength attributed to Reuters headlines saying Molymet taking a $390 mln stake in MCP), DNDN +4.6% (Dendreon board elects John H. Johnson President and CEO), MGM +2.3% (higher following Macau data), SI +2.2% (still checking for anything specific), NVS +2% (FDA approves Gleevec), RIO +0.9% (BHP Billiton announced it has exercised an option to sell its 37% non-operated interest in Richards Bay Minerals to Rio Tinto and will exit the titanium minerals industry), LTD +0.7% (positive mention on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: BX +6.9% (initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank), ADM +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: JDAS -10.9%, AMZN -9.5%, UIS -6.5%, CHRW -5.9%, MPW -5.8% (also announces public offering of common stock), HLIT -5.6% (light volume), UBNT -4.3% (light volume), STLY -4% (thinly traded), SLGN -3.8%, TUP -1.7%, KEYN -1.1% (light volume).

    M&A news: GGC -5.2% (Westlake Chemical confirms increases offer for Georgia Gulf to $35.00 Per Share; GGC rejects increased offer despite challenging market dynamics and risk to company's standalone prospects).

    Other news: BDSI -8.2% (files for $40 mln mixed securities shelf offering), KWK -7.8% (announces 2012 capital spending program of $370 mln, downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill).

    Analyst comments: TROW -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup).
  • According to some reports, Facebook won't file for its IPO until after the close today or until tomorrow morning
  • Bloombergis artikkel sellest, kuidas analüüsimajad on taandumas oma negatiivsetest väljavaadetest.
  • Ja Reutersi artiklis kirjutatakse, et Euroopa aktsiad on hetkel suhteliselt odavad, võrreldes USA aktsiatega.
    Sovereign default worries have made the region's shares the cheapest they've been to American investors since 2004.

    Companies in the S&P Europe 350 are trading at around 10 times earnings for 2012, compared to 12.2 for the S&P 500. That means investors are getting a 20 percent-plus discount for looking across the pond.
  • varasemalt avaldatud ISM pisut alla ootuste, ehituskulutused aga paremad

    December Construction Spending +1.5% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus, Prior +0.4%
    January ISM Index 54.1 vs 54.5 Briefing.com consensus, Prior 53.1
  • F5 Networks flirts with its 11 month close high from Jan at 123.10 -- session high 123.16
  • Headlines crossing now saying IIF is indicating deal between Greece and creditors close to finalizing, expected to conclude discussions next week
  • Green Mtn Coffee: GMCR key technical levels of interest in the event of Q1 earnings price volatility; Cap IQ est. @ 0.34;

    Support:
    51.00/50.00- 20d exp. moving avg.
    50.00/49.00- 50d moving avg.
    43.19- Jan. daily close low
    41.21- Jan. intraday swing low
    40.89- Nov./multi-month daily close low
    39.42- Nov./multi-month intraday low

    Resistance:
    58.88- Dec. daily close high
    59.00/60.00- 20w exp. moving avg.
    60.19- Dec. intraday swing high
    63.00/64.00- 50w exp. moving avg.
    64.00/65.00- 200d exp. moving avg.
    66.00/67.00- 100d moving avg.
  • Schweitzer-Mauduit: Selling pressure attributed to co losing patent on cigarette papers
  • Green Mtn Coffee prelim $0.60 vs $0.38 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1.16 bln vs $1.06 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    GMCR -lt tublisti üle ootuste kasum. Aktsiaga kauplemine on hetkel peatatud.
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill prelim $1.81 vs $1.83 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $596.7 mln vs $591.31 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    Aktsia järelturul kauplemas ligi 3% miinuses, $ 358
  • Nelli Janson
    Green Mtn Coffee prelim $0.60 vs $0.38 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1.16 bln vs $1.06 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    GMCR -lt tublisti üle ootuste kasum. Aktsiaga kauplemine on hetkel peatatud.


    Prognoos aga alla ootusi:
    Green Mtn Coffee sees Q2 $0.60-0.65 vs $0.71 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs +45-50% YoY vs. +58.6% consensus
  • Green Mtn Coffee: GMCR resumption time set @ 16:30 p.m. ET on NASDAQ; Shares halted @ 53.63 close
  • Douglas Kass @DougKass
    OFFSIDES! ISI Hedge Fund Survey (just out) indicates hedge funds at near lowest net long exposure in four years. Enough said.
  • Siin saab tutvuda Facebooki registreerimisvormiga SECile.

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