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Börsipäev 27. veebruar

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  • Olgugi WTI 14%line kallinemine veebruarikuu põhjadest on kõneaineks toonud kütusehinnad, mõju tarbijatele ning ettevõtetele, siis turud ei näi väga suurt probleemi sellest veel tegevat. Stoxx 600 lõpetas reedese päeva 0,3% kõrgemal ning S&P 500 sulgus 0,2% plusspoolel.

    WTI aktiivne futuur


    Tänane makrokalender jääb suhteliselt õhukeseks, kui õhtupoole toimub Bundestagis Kreeka abipaketi hääletus ja kell 17.00 avalikustatakse USA jaanuaris pooleliolnud kinnisvaratehingute arv.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,25% punases.
  • Enne tänast hääletust on meelestatus Saksamaa parlamendis kahetine ning sugugi mitte kõik pole arvamusel, et 130 miljardi euro eraldamine oleks kõige parem lahendus. Ligi 10 miljoni lugejaga ajaleht Bild on täna väljas pealooga, mis kutsub ametnikke loobuma Kreekale raha andmisest ning kui kaks aastat tagasi seisid nad praktiliselt üksi selle seisukohaga, siis täna on nende selja taga palju majandusteadlasi ja eksperte. Via Google translate
  • FTs on huvitav lugu kuidas Saksamaa on värvanud 160 maksueksperti, et need siis Kreekasse korda looma saata. Hinnanguliselt ulatub maksudest kõrvalehiilimise kulu Kreeka valitsuse jaoks aastas 5-6 miljardi euroni ning saamata maksude kogumaht kuhjunud tänaseks üle 60 miljardi euro.
  • Käesoleval nädalal on oma kvartalitulemused teatamas üsna mitu ettevõtet, mille vastu turuosalised tõenäoliselt keskmisest suuremat huvi peaksid tundma.
    Täna peale turu sulgumist raporteerivad Priceline.com (PCLN), Vivus (VVUS), Human Genome (HGSI) ja URS (URS).
  • Zerohedge vahendab Goldman Sachsi ülevaadet riskifondide tegemiste viimasest analüüsist, kus vaadeldi 674 fondi, portfelli koguväärtusega 1,1 triljonit dollarit, millest 715 miljardit on pikad ja 383 miljardit lühikesed positsioonid (üksikaktsiad ja ETFid). Seitse peamist järeldust:
    1. The typical hedge fund operates 46% net long versus 36% in 3Q 2011. Aggregate net exposure equals $332 billion. We estimate 17% of short positioning is conducted via ETFs with 13% occurring at the index level.

    2. Combining long and short position data, hedge funds have the greatest net portfolio exposure to Information Technology (21%), Consumer Discretionary (20%), and Energy (14%). Hedge funds are not benchmarked but relative to the Russell 3000 universe they are 800 bp overweight Consumer Discretionary (20% vs. 12%) and 750 bp underweight Consumer Staples (3.5% vs. 11.0%). Net exposure rose in every sector in 4Q.

    3. Turnover of all hedge fund holdings averaged just 28% during 4Q 2011, an all time low. The top quartile of positions (largest holdings) turned over just 14% while the bottom-quartile (smallest positions) turned over 41%. Since 2001, quarterly turnover of fund positions averaged 35%, peaking in 4Q 2008 at 45% but falling steadily since. Turnover fell in 4Q in all sectors.

    4. Hedge fund returns are highly dependent on the performance of a few key stocks. The typical hedge fund has an average of 64% of its long equity assets invested in its 10 largest positions compared with 34% for the typical large-cap mutual fund, 18% for a small-cap mutual fund, 20% for the S&P 500 and just 2% for the Russell 2000 index.

    5. Apple (AAPL) matters. One out of five long/short hedge funds has AAPL among its ten largest long positions and approximately 30% of hedge funds own at least one share of AAPL. When it ranks among the top ten holdings, AAPL represents an average of 8% of single-stock long equity exposure. In aggregate, hedge funds own only 4% of AAPL equity cap. The average hedge fund AAPL position equals 1.6%, given 70% of funds own no AAPL.

    6. Five stocks have been in our VIP basket since inception in 2007 (18 quarters). AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, QCOM, and CVS have ranked among fundamentally-driven hedge funds’ top 10 holdings for more than 5 years. AAPL (+195%), QCOM (63%) and CVS (12%) outperformed the S&P 500 return of 4% during the same period. MSFT (-4%) and GOOG (-8%) lagged.

    7. Turnover for the VIP basket in 4Q 2011 was below the historical average. 12 new constituents entered the VIP basket in 4Q 2011 compared with an average quarterly turnover of 17 stocks since 2001. New constituents include the following: BAC, DLPH, ESRX, HAL, HPQ, LMCA, MCD, PXD, PCLN, STX, TYC, and VIAB. The following stocks are no longer in the basket: AMT, ABX, CHK, CMCSA, CCI, EMC, EXPE, HES, M, ORCL, PG, and WLP. Exhibit 50 on page 17 contains a list of all 50 current constituents in our VIP basket.
  • Warren Buffett on CNBC-s jagamas oma nägemust aktsiatest, kinnisvarast ja paljust muust:

    Stocks:No forecast for the next 3 months of a year, but Buffett is absolutely confident that they'll outperform cash or non-productive assets, like gold, over the long term.

    Homes: He loves them at these prices, and these ultra-low rates.
    If you're an investor, buying a few distressed homes and renting them out is as attractive of an investment as you can make.

    Will oil prices kill the recovery? They're a minus, but I don't see them stopping anything... I do not think it will derail what has been going on for two and a half years.
  • MetroPCS: Sprint (S) walks away from potential deal to buy MetroPCS - CNBC

    CNBC reports that Sprint (S) and PCS were hours away from announcing an acquisition of MetroPCS (PCS) by Sprint (S) when the Sprint Board of Directors decided to walk away from the deal. CNBC said that it's unclear why the deal fell through.
    MetroPCS initially pops 5.5% to $12.67 following the PCS/Sprint (S) news
    http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/02/24/sprint-deal-for-metropcs-said-to-have-collapsed/
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RIG +2.3%, LOW +1.3%.

    M&A related: TBET +129.2% (announces intent to go private; CEO Hong Yu 'hereby make an offer to purchase TBET stocks not owned by me for $3.00 per share in cash'), PCS +8.7% (reports indicate that Sprint walked away from potential deal to buy MetroPCS).

    Other news: BPAX +27.2% (BioSante pancreas cancer vaccine shows over 60% survival increase in newly presented study; one year survival increased from 7% to 27), PEIX +8.6% and BIOF +4.5% (still checking), CHTP +8.0% (continued strength following Friday's FDA vote), CQP +7.2% (confirms $2 bln equity investment from Blackstone for the Sabine Pass Liquifaction Project), AMRS +5.7% (completed a $58.7 million private placement of its common stock and entered into a definitive agreement to privately place $25 million in aggregate principal amount of 3% senior unsecured notes due 2017), BP +2.4% (BP trial regarding Gulf oil spill has been delayed to discuss possible settlements, according to reports), DNDN +2% (scheduled to report earnings), STO +1.2% (confirms new Brazilian pre-salt oil discovery).

    Analyst comments: CCOI +3.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James), TI +2.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas), DIS +0.9% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman), TYC +0.4% (ticking higher, upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: HBC -3.9%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: RBS -3.2%, IBN -3.2%, LYG -2.7%, ING -2.0%, CS -2.0%, DB -1.8%, UBS -1.5%.

    A few European drug names are ticking lower: NVS -4.4%, AZN -1.4%, SNY -0.9%.

    Other news: CBRX -17.8% (Columbia Labs and Watson receive complete response letter from FDA for progesterone vaginal gel 8%; says 'did not meet the level of statistical significance generally expected to support the approval of the product in the U.S. market'), FBC -9.3% (enters into agreement with Department of Justice), NOK -5.2% (introduced a range of new products, services and partnerships at Mobile World Congress), AIXG -3.4% and ERIC -1.9% (still checking), BRCM -1.8% (discloses SEC investigation update), CRM -0.4% (Barron's reviews cautious view on Salesforce.com's (CRM) valuation).

    Analyst comments: NFLX -2.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James), BHI -0.7% (downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James).
  • Käesoleval nädalal kuuleme kuidas sujus autotootjatel veebruarikuu müük USA turgudel ja kas senine tugev müügitrend jätkub. Ford kergitab veidi saladuskatet ning tõdeb, et jooksev kuu tõotab tulla parim viimase kümne aasta jooksul.
    Ford Motor confirms that February on track to be best sales month in more than a decade; Ford Focus sales expected to double in February
  • Goldman Sachs tõstab täna Ariba (ARBA) reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale koos $ 40 hinnasihiga.

    We upgrade ARBA to Conviction Buy (from Neutral) with a $40 price target, implying 31% upside. The drivers of our call on the largest B2B and SaaS Spend Management vendor are: (1) improving fundamentals with increased adoption of B2B connectivity and SaaS, as shown by accelerating 1Q booking growth after adjusting for pricing changes, (2) a favorable catalyst pipeline after March results with accelerating growth and margin expansion, and (3) increased likelihood of M&A given the unique, complementary asset Ariba maintains and the increase willingness for SaaS acquisitions that software leaders have recently displayed.

    Analüütikud prognoosivad firma fundamentaalsete näitajate paranemist, tuginedes eelkõige tellimuste kasvule peale hindade korrigeerimist ja ehk kõige olulisem on võimalus, et firma võetakse üle mõne suurema tarkvara firma poolt.

    Catalyst
    We expect the catalyst pipeline to improve meaningfully when Ariba reports 2Q12 results. While some investors could see 2Q as negative given the optics of slowing NTM bookings growth (7% yoy), we expect accelerating growth in 3Q, 4Q, and 1Q (18% yoy, 22% yoy, and 25% yoy, respectively) to catalyze sentiment regarding growth sustainability.


    Antud calli puhul viitavad Goldmani analüütikud ülevõtuvõimalusele, mis on ka üsna reaalne, sest sarnaseid ülevõtte oleme me ka hiljuti näinud (SAP võttis möödunud aasta lõpus üle SFSF-i ja ORCL paar nädalat tagasi TLEO).
    Kauplemise seisukohast on viimasel ajal positiivsed callid üsna vaevaliselt töötanud ja täna võib korduda sama stsenaarium, et aktsia müüakse peale avanemist alla.


  • DNDN, mis eelturul tulemuste peale isegi plusspoolel kauples, on nüüdseks halastamatult alla müüdud ja hetkel kauplemas juba 18% miinuspoolel, $ 12,02 kandis.

    Dendreon beats by $0.07 (14.86 )
    Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.26 per share, $0.07 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of ($0.33); product revenues rose 208.0% year/year to $77 mln, which looks comparable to the $74.91 mln revenue consensus. Co also reported total revenue of $202.1 mln, which does not appear to be comparable to the $74.91 CIQ consensus estimate. The fourth quarter of 2011 included a royalty payment of $125 million associated with the sale of DNDN's VICTRELIS (boceprevir) royalty interest.
  • Tibet Pharma announces intent to go private; CEO Hong Yu, 'I hereby make an offer to purchase TBET stocks not owned by me for $3.00 per share in cash'

    Co announced, "In recent days, we noticed that a website mentioned about auctioning our operating entity's assets. These were untrue and incorrect announcements. Our company is in normal business operation. We're conducting our investigation on this mistaken report, and will keep our investors informed on the investigation result," said Mr. Hong Yu, CEO and Chairman of Tibet Pharmaceuticals. "The Company will take all necessary legal measures to defend itself against any untrue reports and to protect the interests of shareholders."

    Co also announced its intent to accept a "going private" proposal by Mr. Hong Yu, and cease its public company status. "In view of market bias towards Chinese companies listed in U.S. stock exchange and our past stock performance, I hereby make an offer to purchase TBET stocks not owned by me for $3.00 per share in cash,"said Mr. Hong Yu, "delisting details will be announced shortly".

    Hiinakatega nii nagu on, pikalt hoida ei ole hea.
  • HSBC arvab, et BRIC aktsiaturud käituvad teiste arenevate aktsiaturgudega võrreldes paremini.

    HSBC:
    • Most of BRIC markets are trading significantly lower than their 10 years PE average: e.g,. Russia a 30% discount, China: 26% discount
    • BRIC countries are not only cheaper than the rest of EM but the profitability of the companies in BRIC countries is higher than the profitability in the rest of EM
    • We expect the BRIC Markets to outperform rest of EM should global investors revisit the EM and given no bad news come from DM
  • Viimase aja trend ehk nii öelda ebahuvi upgrade vastu ARBA puhul piirdus täna ainult eelturuga, sest eelturul kauples aktsia oma sulgumishinna juures ($ 30,64) aga peale avanemist tegi ilusa hüppe üles $ 31,90 juurde ja sinna kanti on aktsia ka kauplema jäänud. Hetkel kaupleb ARBA $ 31,81 kandis, 3,8% plusspoolel.



  • Germany parliament approves second Greek bailout in 496-90 vote; as expected
  • European Financial Stability Facility outlook lowered to negative at S&P
  • Headline crossing that Spain's Finance Minister says deficit was 8.51% of GDP; Spain has been warning for the past two months the figure would exceed the original target of 8%
  • Käesolev nädal toob USA turule taas uusi tegijaid ja üks firma, mis peaks kauplemist alustama 2. märtsil, on Yelp! (YELP). Internetifirma YELP äriidee on omavahel kokku viia kohalikud ärid oma klientidega ehk teisisõnu võimaldab inimestel kommenteerida või jagada oma kogemusi ühe või teise ettevõtte kohta. Firmal on ka segment Yelp Deals, mille kaudu saavad firmad pakkuda allahindlusi. Möödunud aasta lõpu seisuga oli firma tegev 46-l USA ja 25-l rahvusvahelisel turul. Kuus keskmiselt külastas YELP-i veebilehte ca 66 miljonit inimest (viimase kvartali seisuga). Kasutajatele on teenus tasuta ja firma käive tuleb peamiselt reklaamis. Kuigi firma käibekasv on olnud muljetavaldav (FY11 75% yoy), siis kasumisse pole YELP jõudnud. Ära tuleks märkida ka see, et firma laseb turule ainult 7,2 miljonit aktsiat ja umbes sama suur oli ka LNKD-i börsil kaubeldavate aktsiate hulk, mis mängis tõenäoliselt üsna olulist rolli selles, et aktsia avanes oma esimesel kauplemispäeval 80% üle oma IPO hinna ja rallis sealtki veel üle 40% kõrgemale. YELP IPO hinnaks oodatakse $ 7-9 vahemikku.
  • General Motors: Reuters reporting that GM is likely to purchase a 5% stake in Peugeot
  • Apple: AAPL +0.90% continues into all-time high territory as shares clear the 527.00 handle; 527.26 HoD
  • MGM Resorts: MGM vol. alert to the downside; +3M shares trade over the last 5 min. bar
  • ZAGG prelim $0.32 vs $0.17 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $67.5 mln vs $55.02 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    ZAGG sees FY12 revs in excess of $250 mln vs $240.57 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Priceline.com prelim $5.37 vs $5.04 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $991 mln vs $968.31 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $5.37 per share, $0.33 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $5.04; revenues rose 35.6% year/year to $991 mln vs the $968.31 mln consensus. Fourth quarter gross travel bookings for the Group, which refers to the total dollar value, generally inclusive of all taxes and fees, of all travel services purchased by consumers, were $4.96 billion, an increase of 51.8% over a year ago; The Group's international operations contributed revenues in the 4th quarter of $610 million, a 62.7% increase versus a year ago (approximately 66% on a local currency basis).

    Co issues upside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $3.80-3.90, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.72 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; y/y increase in total gross travel bookings of ~33% - 38%; y/y increase in international gross travel bookings of ~41% - 46% (an increase of approximately 43% - 48% on a local currency basis); y/y increase in domestic gross travel bookings of approximately 10%; y/y increase in revenue of approximately 22% to 27%; y/y increase in gross profit of ~40% to 45%; a djusted EBITDA of ~$243 million to $253 million.

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