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Börsipäev 2. märts

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  • Ehkki viimase 24 tunni jooksul avaldatud makromajanduslikud näitajad on olnud pigem pettumustvalmistavad, siis turud on suutnud hoida siiski positiivset meeleolu ja seda vahest tänu likviidsusele, mida keskpangad pakuvad või siis lootuse najal, et seda teed jätkatakse, takistades nõnda makropildi drastilist halvenemist. Eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse PMI osutus eile ootuspäraseks püsides 49,0 punktil, mis viitab sektori aktiivsuse alanemisele seitsmendat kuud järjest. Samas kujunesid arvatust nõrgemaks Hispaania ja Suurbritannia näitajad. Ja kuigi Itaalia PMI tõusis ühe punkti võrra, jäi see endiselt eurotsooni keskmisest madalamaks (47,8). Midagi rõõmustavat polnud ka Itaalia tööturustatisikas, mille kohaselt kasvas jaanuaris tööpuudus ühe kuuga 0,3 protsendipunkti võrra 9,2%ni ning noorte seas küündib näitaja juba 31,1%ni.

    USA poolel tekitas ilmselt paljudes küsimusi töötleva tööstuse aktiivsust mõõtva ISM indeksi alanemine veebruaris vastupidiselt ootustele ning erinevalt sellest, mida on näidanud regionaalsed PMI indeksid. Aga autodemüük jätkub endiselt tugeva hooga, jõudes veebruaris esimest korda nelja aasta jooksul annualiseeritult üle 15 miljoni sõiduki. Lisaks näis turgudele head meelt valmistavat ka jaemüüjate veebruari statistika, mida soe ilm soosis. Stoxx 600 lõpetas eile 1%lise tõusuga ning S&P 500 sulgus 0,6% kõrgemal.

    Pöörates pilgu tänasele päevale, siis makrost pole midagi olulist välja tuua peale Saksamaa jaemüügi numbrite ja Hispaania tööturustatistika, mistõttu võiksid turgu liigutada pigem pealkirjad Euroopa Liidu jätkuvalt tippkohtumiselt.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel nullis.
  • Nagu näha, siis jaanurariga võrreldes tegi USA automüük veebruaris korraliku hüppe ning liigub järjest lähemale kriisieelsele tasemele, milleks oli annualiseeritult kusagil 17 miljonit sõidukit. Morgan Stanley arvates ei ole hetkel miski viitamas, et tegemist on jätkusuutmatu trendiga, kuna tarbijausaldus paraneb, ilm on olnud soodne ja tulemas on palju uusi mudeleid. Kuid üheks kriitiliseks teguriks võib kujuneda kütusehind, mis üle 4 dollari maksva galloni puhul ähvrdab nõudlust kahjustada.

    Nothing to indicate this is not sustainable. While we continue to caution that Jan / Feb SAAR can be very lumpy and unpredictable, we do not necessarily see an impending pull back in the SAAR. Consumer confidence is hitting new highs, the weather remains mild and plenty of new product is on the way (there is no doubt in our mind that some customers are waiting for new launches from the auto shows to hit lots). The one variable remains gas prices – that for now is fueling new demand but can quickly become a demand killer beyond $4/gal.
  • Eilses börsipäevas sai veidi puudutatud Portugali ning selle jätkuks on Reutersis James Saft kirjutamas, et üks riik, kus LTRO ei näi töötavat, on Portugal kuna pangad pole valmis carry trade'i tegema nii nagu mujal ja EKP on sunnitud ise riigivõlakirja turgu toetama. Üks oluline point, mida ta oma artklis välja toob, on see et EKP toetavad ostud loovad erakreeditoride silmis paralleeli Kreeka olukorraga, kus investorid on ära jooksnud ja võimalik haircut ei anna väga ka põhjust tagasi tulla.

    So let's see: Portugal will need additional funds and has a ready-made template to follow in the most recent rescue of Greece, which included a loss, or so-called private sector participation, of about 75 percent for private investors holding its debt. Even worse, the ECB established the principle in the Greek bailout that it, and by extension other official creditors, would bear no losses. Investors just love being subordinated, as we can plainly see.
  • Nädala alguses kirjutasin lühidalt Yelp (YELP)-st, mis alustab täna USA turul kauplemist. Tänaseks on selgunud ka IPO hind, mis kujunes oodatust kõrgemaks ehk $ 12-14 vahemiku asemel $ 15 aktsia kohta.
  • Zynga on üles läinud kui FB play. Nüüd hakkab zynga.com-ga vasakule panema. Kuidas FB sellesse suhtub? Kas nüüd on vähem FB play? Kas keegi viitsib FB lehelt mängulehele kaasa minna?

    disclaimer: niikuinii ei saa midagi aru :)
  • Värskeimad andmed töötusest noorte seas
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BIOF +22.2%, ASNA +9.9%, ALSK +8.4%, FLOW +7.3%, GCO +1.9%, IDSY +1.6% (light volume).

    Other news: SFLY +13.3% (Kodak enters into agreement for proposed sale of gallery photo services site to Shutterfly), CBRX +12% (announced a 42% workforce reduction from 24 employees at December 31, 2011, to 14 employees; projected annual savings of over $1.5 mln), BGCP +4.1% (positive mention on MadMoney), ZNGA +3.6% (continued strength), ARNA +3.3% (ticking higher, files European Marketing Authorization Application for Lorcaserin for weight control), SLE +3% (provides details on pending spin-off: coffee and tea business will be domiciled as a new publicly traded company in the Netherlands; $3.00 special dividend to be paid immediately after), RENN +1.3% (ticking higher, announced the release of its customized HD client application for Microsoft's Windows 8 application store).

    Analyst comments: VE +4.2% (upgraded to Add from Neutral at WestLB), CIE +2.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital), FIO +1% (resumed with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley), MSI +0.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CCSC -17.4%, PRTS -14%, MOTR -13.6%, AONE -10% (also downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA/Merrill), MALL -7.5% (thinly traded, also names Mark McGrath President), BONA -4.2% (thinly traded), FL -2.1%, AUTH -1.4%, (thinly traded).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: HMY -2.3%, MT -2.1%, AU -1.6%, SLV -1.2%, BHP -1%, GDX -0.5%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: TOT -1.7%, RDS.A -1.2%, STO -1.1%, BP -1%, SDRL -0.9%, E -0.9%.

    A few European drug names are trading modestly lower: GSK -1.3%, NVS -1.1%, AZN -1.0%.

    Other news: NTWK -27.9% (prices public offering of 14.5 mln shares of common stock at $0.40 per share), DPM -4.2% (announces a 4.75 mln public offering of common units), BX -3.1% (still checking), FOLD -2.7% (prices offering of 10 mln shares of common stock at $5.70 per share), BUD -1.5% (Anheuser-Busch InBev may purchase operations being sold by China's Kingway Brewery for as much as $700 mln, according to reports), GNC -1.4% (light volume, files for offering of 17 mln shares of Class A common stock by selling stockholders), NOK -1.3% (S&P downgraded Nokia to 'BBB-/A-3' on revised assessment of profitability and competitive position; Outlook Negative ), RCL -1% (files mixed securities shelf offering), IPGP -0.5% (announced pricing of a public offering of 3 mln shares of its common stock at $54.30/share).

    Analyst comments: NWSA -1.7% (downgraded to Outperform from Top Pick at RBC Capital), ITT -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney).
  • Yelp opens for trading at $22.05 after pricing IPO at $15
  • Blackstone: AIG has sold a $500 million stake in BX - CNBC
  • Renren +7% after announcing its app was selected for the MSFT Windows 8 app store
  • See nädal üsna huvitavad insider tehingud:

    Ost:
    •Genomic Health (GHDX) Director/10% owner Baker Brothers bought 245,031 shares at $29.03-29.11 on 2/27-2/28, worth ~$7.1 mln
    •BlackRock (BLK) Vice Chairman bought 11,580 shares at $198.03-198.93 on 2/29, worth ~$2.3 mln
    •Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) Director/10% owner bought 85K shares at $11.58 on 2/21, worth ~$980K
    •Walter Energy (WLT) SVP bought 15K shares at $65.52 on 2/24, worth ~$980K
    •AIG (AIG) Director bought 15K shares at $28.06-28.10 on 2/27, worth ~$420K
    •Cablevision (CVC) Director bought 25K shares at $14.25-14.26 on 2/29, worth ~$360K

    Müük:
    •MGM (MGM) 10% owner Tracinda sold 20 mln shares at $13.40 on 2/27, worth $268.0 mln
    •Whole Foods (WFM) Director Green Equity Investors sold 1mln shares at $80.79-81.29 on 2/28-3/1, worth ~$81.0 mln
    •MercadoLibre (MELI) CEO/10% owner sold 250K shares at $96.58-102.88 on 2/28-3/1, worth ~$73.9 mln
    •Green Mountain (GMCR) Chairman/10% owner and Directors (2) sold a total of 535K shares at $66.37-66.68 on 2/24-2/27, worth ~$35.7 mln
    •Endologix (ELGX) 10% owner Essex Woodlands Health Ventures sold 1,250K shares at $12.54-13.42 on 2/27-2/28, worth ~$16.1 mln
    •Heinz (HNZ) Director Trian Fund Management sold 116K shares at $53.00-53.73 on 2/24-2/28, worth ~$11.2 mln
    •CAI International (CAP) Directors (2) sold a total of 560K shares at $19.35-19.36 on 2/27, worth ~$10.8 mln
    •Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Chairman sold 555K shares at $16.75-17.03 on 2/27-2/27, worth ~$9.4 mln
    •Kimberly-Clark (KMB) Group President sold 111,764 shares at $72.33 on 2/29, worth ~$8.0 mln
    •MEDNAX (MD) CEO sold 100K shares at $74.60-75.18 on 2/28, worth ~$7.5 mln
    •IMAX (IMAX) Director sold 275K shares at $25.18-25.42 on 2/24-2/28, worth ~$7.0 mln
    •Google (GOOG) Director sold 10,591 shares at $625.00-625.50 on 2/29, worth ~$6.6 mln
    •Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Chairman sold 100K shares at $35.40-36.18 on 2/28, worth ~$3.6 mln
  • Wynn Resorts update: It appears that WYNN did not recieve a land grant issuance for its the Cotai property (halted)

    The 8-K filing from this morning appears to be an update on the agreement WYNN reached with Macau officials for the property on the Cotai Strip from September 12, 2011. It appears that the co did not receive a land grant issuance in order to begin construction on the property. WYNN is still halted (up 6% on the apparent confusion).

  • iShares Russell 2000 breaks down below its Feb range lows along the $81-level

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