LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 9. märts

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Kreeka valitsus teatas, et osalus PSI pakkumises ulatus 85,8%ni, kuid rakendades kollektiivklauslit (CAC), tõuseb osalus 95,7%ni, mis mahub finantsabi paketis ettenähtud piiresse, et vähendada Kreeka võlga 2020. aastaks 120%ni SKT-st. Kreeka võla restruktureerimises osalenud saavad oma esialgsest investeeringust 15% ulatuses sularaha ning 31,5% ulatuses uusi võlakirjasid. Seda, kas CACi rakendatakse, otsustakse tänasel eurotsooni rahandusministrite koosolekul. Kui seda tehakse, peaksid käivituma ka CDS kindlusmaksed, kuid ISDA koguneb kell 15.00, et lõplikku otsust langetada. EUR/USD on uudist võtmas negatiivselt ning kaupleb -0,3% madalamal 1,3233 dollari juures.
  • Kas need CAC-st ülejäävad 4,3% saavad oma raha täies ulatuses? Kas neil olid mingid erilised võlakirjad või on nende hoidjad erilised?
  • pigem mitte, sest Kreeka valitsus on öelnud, et restruktureerimises mitte osalevatele investoritele ei pruugi nad mitte midagi maksta. Osa Kreeka võlga on emiteeritud riigi enda seadusandluse raames, osa aga rahvusvahelise seaduse raames ja ma kahtlustan, et suurema osa sellest CAC alt väljajäävast %st kuulub viimasesse gruppi, mistõttu on Kreeka nende jaoks pikendanud antud restruktureerimise pakkumist 23 märtsini.
  • Kreeka saab täna kõrgendatud tähelepanu, kuid ka makro poolel tulemas üsna oluline USA veebruarikuu tööturu statistika (kl 15.30). Konsensus ootab 206K uue töökohta loomist väljaspool põllumajandussektorit ehk veidi vähem võrreldes jaanuari 243K-ga. Töötusemääraks prognoositakse 8,3%, mis oleks võrdne jaanuarikuu tasemega.
  • Reuters kirjutab, et osad hedge fondid on leidnud seaduses augu, mis sunniks Kreekat neile kogu raha tagasi maksma. Link
  • Hiina tarbijahinnaindeksi tõus aeglustus veebruaris 3,2% peale (jaanuaris 4.5%), mis on madalaim tõus viimase 20 kuu jooksul ning nõrgem analüütikute oodatud 3,4%st. Aeglustumist oli eelkõige näha toiduainehindades, mille aastane kasv tuli jaanuari 10,5% pealt 6,2% peale ning see loob keskpangale paremad tingimused vajadusel majanduses taas likviidsust tõsta. Hiljuti on väga palju spekuleeritud just järjekordse kohustusliku reservimäära kärpe üle
  • Kui eile raporteeritud Saksama jaanuari tööstustoodang oli oodatust pisut parem (+1,8% vs +1,1%), siis täna avalikustatud Prantsusmaa oma jällegi nõrgem (YoY -1,5% vs prognoositud -1,1%).
  • Seoses Hiina statistikaga jäi mainimata veel muu makro, mis osutus prognoosidest nõrgemaks. Perioodi jaanua-veebruar jaemüük kasvas aastaga 14,7% vs prognoositud 17,5% ning tööstustoodang kerkis samal perioodil 11,4% vs oodatud 12,4%. All ka vastavad graafikud
    Jaemüük


    Tööstustoodang
  • Täna, kolm aastat tagasi saavutas S&P 500 kriisi põhja ning on sellest ajast alates näidanud üsna muljetavaldavat tõusu. Nelja aasta lõikes ollakse sisuliselt flat ning 2007.a tippudeni jääb veel ca 15% minna.
  • Ka Suurbritannia makro oodatust veidi nõrgem:

    Jaanuari tööstustoodang langes aastaga -3,8% vs oodatud -3,1% (detsembris -3,1%)
    Jaanuari töötleva tööstuse toodang kasvas aastaga 0,1% vs oodatud 0,3% (detsembris +0,9%).
  • Kanada veebruari oodatud töökohtade kasvu +15k asemel -2.8k töökohta, kas võib anda indikatsiooni US kohta?
    Samas töötusmäär langes 7.6% pealt 7.4%-ni.
  • Hiina sotsiaalmeedia kohta huvitav artikkel:
    Weibo kohta sõna võtmas Li Yizhong
    http://cmp.hku.hk/2012/03/09/20328/
  • Carnival (CCL) and Royal Caribbean (RCL) are ticking lower on reports of potential cruise booking delays
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/09/us-cruise-outlook-idUSBRE8280IX20120309
  • Seeing some headlines that Eurozone Finance Ministers have agreed to release EUR 47 bln to Greece; checking around for another source as it is unclear where this is coming from.
  • Qihoo 360 Tech. announced that it has secured exclusive rights in China for the launch of the PC Version of Rovio's 'Angry Birds Space'
  • Ruth's Hospitality Group announced that it has repurchased and will retire all of the outstanding shares of its Series A 10% Convertible Preferred Stock owned by affiliates of Bruckmann, Rosser, Sherrill & for $60.2 mln in cash.
  • Eile teatas Starbucks (SBUX), et kavatseb sügisel turule tuua uue toote nimega Verismo, mis on kodune ühetassi kohvimasin ja millega saab teha kvaliteetset espresso kohvi. Ühtlasi on see ka toode, mis otseselt konkureerib Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) tootega. SBUX-i teadaanne oli seda üllatavam, kuna firmal on ka kehtiv koostööleping GMCR-ga. Igal juhul oli konsensus kuni eilse õhtuni veendunud, et SBUX teatab pigem tihedamast koostööst kui konkureerivast tootest. Eile õhtul selgus siiski, et nii see pole ja GMCR –i aktsia reageeris sellele uudisele terava langusega, käies ära isegi alla $ 48 taseme.

    Täna on analüütikud väljas ka omapoolsete kommentaaridega:
    Suntrusti analüütikud ütlevad, et nende hinnangul pole Verismo Keurigi otsene konkrent ja pigem pakub konkurentsi Nestle Nespresso masinale ning on ka tõenäoliselt hinna poolest poole kallim.
    Analüütikud lisavad, et nad ei soovi SBUX uudist kuidagi ilustada, sest selge on see, et lugu oleks märksa lihtsam, kui SBUX oleks teatanud uuest tootest koostöös GMCR. Tõenäoliselt võtab nüüd jälle mõnda aega, kuniks „müra“ vaibub, aga samas usuvad nad, et 15-20% madalamalt on GMCR hea ostumoment.
    Suntrust kinnitab oma Osta soovitus koos $ 90 hinnasihiga.
    Based on the commentary from SBUX, we do not view this as a meaningful threat to GMCR’s Keurig franchise. Verisimo is being positioned primarily as an espresso machine similar to the highly popular,
    Nespresso machine from Nestle. While actual prices for Verisimo were not disclosed we would expect it to start around the $250‐$300 range, similar to Nespresso and twice that of Keurig ($89‐$178 range).
    • Verisimo will make regular coffee so it does technically compete with Keurig but we believe the different price points will enable SBUX to target different audiences and SBUX indicated that this introduction will not alter the multiyear agreement between GMCR and SBUX.
    We don’t want to sugarcoat this. We would have preferred to see a SBUX partnership for GMCR’s new Vue product which now seems less likely. It also calls into question GMCR’s JV with Lavazza for a single serve espresso machine which is planned for later this year. Finally the additional noise to the GMCR story is unwelcome.
    • It will take some time before this settles down and GMCR likely goes back to a “guilty until proven innoct” story. Nonetheless we believe the expected 15‐20% pullback in the stock is a solid buying opportunity.


    Ka William Blairi analüütikud on seisukohal, et GMCR –i toodetele ei tule SBUX-i poolt nii suurt kahju kui esialgu võiks arvata. Ühtlasi lisas kindlust, et SBUX kinnitas oma koostööplaane GMCR-ga.
    Analüütikud kinnitavad oma Osta soovitust ja kasutaks aktsia nõrkust ära ostmiseks.

    Starbucks was quite clear it sees upside in brewed coffee through its partnership with Green Mountain and plans to continue to invest to drive the performance of the K-Cup business, including offering both Keurig brewers and Starbucks K-Cups in its own retail stores in 2012
    It is also worth noting that Green Mountain, via Keurig, had an installed base of roughly 9 million user households before shipping more than 4 million brewers in the December quarter. Clearly Keurig’s value proposition has resonated with a broad base of consumers and should continue to do so, particularly with the introduction of the Vue, the company’s next- generation platform.

    We see no need to revisit our earnings estimates as a result of today’s announcement.
    We consider weakness a buying opportunity and maintain our Outperform rating.


    Pisut skeptilisem on aga Merrill Lynchi analüütikud., kes langetavad GMCR-i reitingu Osta pealt Hoia peale ja hinnasihi $70 pealt $ 63 peale.

    Analüütikute arvates on üsna palju detaile veel uue toote osas ebaselged, aga selge on see, et ühetassi kohvimasinate turul läheb veelgi kitsamaks, mis ajendab analüütuikd võtma ka ettevaatlikuma seisukoha.

    More competition in single serve arena leads to downgrade
    Starbucks (SBUX) announced that it is introducing a new premium single cup brewing system called Verismo. While there are still details about the system that we don’t know (e.g. price points for the machines and the pods), we do believe it creates potential risk to GMCR by diverting consumer attention and creating more competition in the next generation of single cup systems. We are not making any changes to our estimates but we are lowering our price objective from $70 to $63 to reflect our view that the valuation will be negatively impacted by the risk associated with the presence of more competition in the single cup arena.


    Hetkel on enamus analüütikuid siiski seisukohal, et SBUX uus toode Verismo väga suurt kahju GMCR-le ei too. Paraku on siin rõhk sõnal „suurt“, sest päris ilma kaotusteta see tõenäoliselt GMCR-le ei kulge.
    Usun, et täna GMCR aktsia pakub meile ka põrke, kuigi Merrill Lynch teeb selle natuke keerulisemaks. Aktsia on ilmselt väga volatiilne seega konservatiivsus koguste ja hinnataseme osas tuleb kasuks.


    Hetkel kaupleb GMCR $ 53,65 juures, 14% miinuspoolel.






  • January Trade Balance -$52.6 bln vs -$48.2 bln Briefing.com consensus; December revised to -$50.4 bln from -$48.8 bln
    February Unemployment Rate 8.3% vs 8.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior 8.3%
    February Nonfarm Payrolls 227K vs 206K Briefing.com consensus; January revised to 284K from 243K
    February Nonfarm Private Payrolls 233K vs 220K Briefing.com consensus
    February Hourly Earnings +0.1% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus
    February Average Workweek 34.5 vs 34.5 Briefing.com consensus

  • Päris korralik jaanuari ülespoole revision.
  • Douglas Kass ‏: Close Open Details Jobs in line with whisper. I believe this has been discounted and I look for classic "sell on the news." Shorted SPY at 137.4 $SPY

    Kass täna turu langusele panustamas.
  • Lihtsalt huvi pärast küsin, kas sellel Douglasel viimasel ajal midagi täppi ka on läinud? Ise meest ei jälgi, kuid need ennustused, mis siin foorumis on ära toodud,on viimasel ajal enamus mööda läinud ja vaese mehe pea peaks juba päris tükkideks olema...
  • Eks ta jah, mõnikord on oma prognoosidega natuke liiga ajast eest. Samas lühikeses perspektiivis ehk päevasiselt on tal siiski enamus ennustusi ikkagi pihta läinud.
  • Aastrom Biosciences halted (ASTM), news pending
  • NetApp: Hearing added to Buy List at Deutsche Bank
  • GMCR pakkus täna avanemisel ilusa põrke. Aktsia avanes $ 52,01 peal ja liikus peale avanemist üles, käies ära ka üle $ 54 taseme. Hetkel on aktsia tagasi alla tulnud ja kaupleb $ 52,80 juures, 15,4% miinuspoolel.

  • Concur Tech: Hearing CNQR downgraded at DA Davidson
  • Michael Kors: Big vol. spike in KORS here with +1.5M shares trading on the $1.50 move to post IPO highs @ 50.45
  • Hartford Financial: Paulson discloses 8.5% stake in 13D filing; includes presentation "Spin-Off of P&C Business Would Increase Shareholder Value By 60%"
  • Medco Health Solutions spikes to highs; strength attributed to headlines suggesting regulators unlikely to block ESRX deal
  • Kuidas seda mõista? Mida see annab või muudab?


    Ratings agency Fitch downgrades Greece to 'restricted default' after bond swap deal
  • GOOG?
    Sixty-five percent of search engine users surveyed by Pew Research say it?s a bad thing if a
    search engine collected information about your searches and then used it to rank future search results,
    Pew Research reported. Meanwhile, 73% of those surveyed viewed a search engine keeping track of searches
    and using that information to personalize future search results as an invasion of privacy.

  • Hoopis see:D

    DJ CFO PICHETTE Sells 1,965 Of GOOGLE INC >GOOG
    SOURCE: Form 4
    ISSUER: GOOGLE INC
    SYMBOL: GOOG (CL A)

    FILER: PICHETTE PATRICK
    TITLE: Chief Financial Officer

    DATE TRANSACTION SHARES PRICE VALUE
    3/9/12 Sale 1,965 $607.81 $1,194,347
    (10b5-1 Plan Indicated)*

    OWNERSHIP: 0 (Direct)

    * - A 10b5-1 plan enables an insider to establish a program to make trans-
    actions according to an advance plan. Such a program allows an insider
    to continue with planned transactions even if he or she comes into
    possession of material non-public information.

    The Form 4 is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission by insiders
    to report transactions in their companies' shares. Open market purchases
    and sales must be reported within two business days of the transaction.

    Insider Data Source: The Washington Service
    (info@washingtonservice.com or 301-913-5100)

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    March 09, 2012 13:28 ET (18:28 GMT)
  • Headlines crossing that ISDA is ruling that a credit event has occurred with respect to Greece
  • ISDA confirms Greece has defaulted, paving the way for CDS payouts that investors purchased to hedge against the risk of holding Greek sovereign debt. The vote was unanimous.
    Keegi peab kusagilt 3,2bn leidma nüüd arvatavasti.....
  • EMEA DC StatementMarch 9, 2012
    In light of today’s EMEA Determinations Committee (the EMEA DC) unanimous decision in respect of thepotential Credit Event question relating to The Hellenic Republic (DC Issue 2012030901), the EMEA DChas agreed to publish the following statement:The EMEA DC resolved that a Restructuring Credit Event has occurred under Section 4.7 of the ISDA2003 Credit Derivatives Definitions (as amended by the July 2009 Supplement) (the 2003 Definitions) following the exercise by The Hellenic Republic of collective action clauses to amend the terms of Greeklaw governed bonds issued by The Hellenic Republic (the Affected Bonds) such that the right of allholders of the Affected Bonds to receive payments has been reduced.The EMEA DC has resolved to hold an auction with respect to the settlement of standard credit defaultswaps for which The Hellenic Republic is the reference entity. To maximise the range of obligations thatmarket participants may deliver in settlement of any such credit default swaps, the EMEA DC has agreedto run an expedited auction process such that the auction itself will take place on March 19, 2012.
    In light of this expedited auction process, market participants should submit any obligations that theywould like to include on the list of deliverable obligations to ISDA as soon as possible.

    Nojah, kui nad poleks sseda teinud poleks CDSil üldse mõtet ja väärtust tulevikus.....
  • See konkreetne käib nende mitte Kreeka seadustega väljastatud võlakirjade osas? Need Raudteeministeeriumi võlakirjad?
  • Ei ikka kõigi greek-law võlakirjade kohta mille kohta CAC käiku lasti sest ei saavutatud ilma selleta piisavalt suurt osavõttu. Oleks 90% greek-law võlakirjaomanikest vabatahtlikult osalenud, poleks CACi vaja olnid ja ISDA oleks keerutanud välja sellest CDSide päästiku teatest. CACide kasutamine ei võrdu "vabatahtlikusega".
  • No siin on muu info. AP uudis, oluline lõik.
    But ISDA has said that overall payouts on CDS linked to Greek bonds will be less than $3.2 billion, relieving fears that they could fell a big financial firm.
  • What a CDS trigger will mean
    Rough estimates suggest that there is $3bn of insurance written on Greek debt, this compares with about $5.7bn for Lehman Brothers. That means that some banks somewhere owe some investors somewhere $3bn, no small chunk of change.
    Details are patchy as CDSs' are traded off exchange, but if the swap is triggered it doesn’t mean that those private sector investors who have just seen the value of their Greek bond holdings get slashed by more than 50pc will receive the insurance pay-out. This is because a CDS isn’t really insurance and you can buy it even if you don’t own the underlying…
    A bit like someone else owning insurance on your home and receiving the pay-out even if your home burns down…
  • Threshold Pharma target raised to $15.40 at MLV & Co
  • ISDA Chief on CNBC- 'What we decided today was something that had been expected for some time'; 'this was an expected result today'
  • ISDA CEO Robert Pickel Interview on CNBC
    Determinations committee will meet again on Monday where they will consider what will be priced in March 19 auction. Says need to look at bonds that are out there; says it could be the International Bonds (notes they have not been subjected to CACs yet). Says ISDA focuses on the terms of the contract. Says it is up to the Greek government if they intend to pay off outstanding debt issues. Notes sovereigns are different from corporate. Auctions related to outstanding CDS transactions due on March 19.

    ISDA CEO Robert Pickel Interview on CNBC- Says hard to say if we will get other defaults moving forward
  • Anthera Pharma halted - news pending
  • Mõnedele tuleb pikk ja närviline nädalavahetus.
  • CDSi väljamaksete jaoks abi vajajaid hakkab tekkima juba: Austria is facing a capital injection of as much as €1bn into KA Finanz two weeks after bailing out Oesterreichische Volksbanken. In a statement today before ISDA’s decision, KA Finanz said it may have risk provisions of about €1bn if credit- default swaps on Greece it has written are activated.
  • Google Sites led the U.S. explicit core search market in February with 66.4% market share followed by Microsoft Sites (MSFT) with 15.3% (up 0.1%) and Yahoo (YHOO) with 13.8%, according to Comscore

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