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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 12. märts

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • USAs suudeti veebruaris luua kolmandat kuud järjest üle 200 000 töökoha, millele lisaks korrigeeriti ka kahe eelneva kuu näitajat 61 000 võrra ülespoole. Ühe olulise tegurina on esimest korda mitme aasta jooksul hakanud kasvama ka osalus tööjõus ehk rohkem inimesi on leidnud endale töökoha või tegeletakse aktiivselt selle otsimisega. Tegemist on kahtlemata positiivsete märkidega, ent sellele vaatamata jäädakse alla tavapärasele majandussurutise järgse taastumise tempole, kus ühes kuus on loodud harilikult 400K töökohta ning peale selle eksisteerib mitmeid väliseid riskitegureid, mis seda protsessi ähvardavad summutada. Tööturustatistika kõrval on muu makro jäänud piisavalt tagasihoidlikuks, ega ole andnud analüüsimajadele väga põhjust oodata esimeses kvartalis üle 2%list majanduskasvu. Morgan Stanley puhul jääb see ootus isegi 1% juurde, mis on selgelt madalam võrreldes neljanda kvartali 3%ga.

    USA turud suutsid reedese päeva lõpetada kerges plussis, kuid sentimenti Aasias on kahjustanud nädalavahetusel avalikustatud Hiina kaubandusstatistika, mis peegeldas nõudluse kasvu olulist vähenemist Hiina eksporditurgudel (YoY +18,4% vs oodatud 31,1%). Kui viimase osas on riigi keskpangal keeruline midagi teha, siis eelmise nädala inflatsiooninumbrid loovad vähemalt piisavalt head tingimused sisenõudluse täiendavaks turgutamiseks läbi lõdvema rahapoliitika.

    Uus nädal algab tagasihoidliku makrokalendriga ning peamise tähelepanu peaksid röövima esmaspäevane-teisipäevane Eurogrupi/Ecofini kohtumine, kus rahandusministrid arutavad Kreeka kärpemeetmete rakendamist, et saada lõplikult ühele poole teise päästepaketi kinnitamisega. Kuna reede täideti ühe olulise kriteeriumina erasektori 95%line osalemine võla restruktureerimises, siis suure tõenäosusega järgmine laenueraldis väljastatakse ning Kreeka saab oma lähenevad võlakohustused ilusasti ära rahuldada. Teise olulise teemana peaks laual olema finantstehingute maksustamine, mille osas ei ole plaanis veel otsust langetada, vaid pigem luua diskussiooni.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,3% punases, Euroopa futuurid näitavad sarnast muutust.
  • USA keerab ikka kella omamoodi ning kuna sellel nädalavahetusel keerati USA-s kellasid ning Euroopas tehakse seda alles kahe nädala pärast, siis järelikult toimub kahe nädala jooksul kauplemine USA turgudel 15.30-22.00 (eelturule saadetakse orderid kell 10.00).
  • Omab keegi head ülevaadet Slovakkias toimuvast majanduslikust poolest vaadatuna. Eilne valimine tõi suurvõidu vasakpoolsetele, kus nad:
    Fico lubas austada eelmise valitsuse seatud eesmärki tuua eelarvepuudujääk tuleval aastal 3 protsendi piiresse SKTst. Samas rõhutas ta, et kärpekavaga «ei tehta haiget keskmise ja madala sissetulekuga inimestele».

    Oma kampaania käigus tõotas Fico visata prügikasti Slovakkia ühtlase 19-protsendilise maksumäära ja kehtestada astmelised määrad suuremate protsentide kasseerimiseks rikastelt.

    Mul on jäänud mulje, et parempoolsete langemine oli seotud nende korruptiivse käitumisega erastamise ajal ning seetõttu vaadati majanduslikust- ja maksupoliitilisest aspektist kõrvale.

    Kahju et ei kaeta ida-euroopat foorumites.
  • Täna hommikusest Erste panga kommentaarist:

    The new government arising from the elections has to continue in fiscal consolidation. The fiscal deficit will likely reach 4.5-5.0% of GDP in 2012, and reduction to below 3% of GDP is required by 2013 by the EU, which is further complicated by the weak economic growth. Smer suggested that it wants to achieve lower fiscal deficits via introducing progressive taxes for high-earning people and the biggest companies; as well as raising taxes for banks. Smer would like to avoid raising the VAT or impose burden on low-to-middle income workers, which make up large base of their voters. The party wants to complement these by savings on the spending side. We regard sector-specific taxes as more harmful for the economic growth than broad tax hikes or spending cuts due to impact on motivations in the economy and worsened competitiveness of these sectors vis-à-vis neighbouring countries.

    We do not see short-term market impact from the elections, until further steps will be seen. However, should the fiscal consolidation slip behind the schedule, this would be a negative for government bond spreads. Smer does not have sound track in reducing deficits but with new the euro-wide fiscal compact, situation might be different. Smer is generally receptive to the EU matters.
  • Kristo Oidermaa

    Smer suggested that it wants to achieve lower fiscal deficits via introducing progressive taxes for high-earning people and the biggest companies; as well as raising taxes for banks.

    Kõlab kuidagi väga Keskerakonnalikult - maksustame (rängalt) kõiki neid, kes meid ei valinud (või ei vali).
    Üks õppetund sellest kriisist on küll õpitud - alati, a l a t i, võetkase sealt, kust on m i d a võtta.

  • Oppenheimer on täna väljas positiivsete kommentaaridga Soda Stream (SODA) kohta.

    Our meeting with SodaStream at this year's Housewares Show provided us with bincreased confidence in our bullish stance on the shares. Importantly, it highlighted the company's commitment to innovation, as evidenced by the new Revolution
    electric soda maker, while underscoring our belief that the slowdown in machine unit shipments in 4Q severely understates the health of the business. Reiterate Outperform rating and $55 DCF-derived target price.


    Among the highlights of the show was the introduction of the new Revolution soda maker, the company's first electric version, which is expected to launch globally by 4Q. This machine greatly improves convenience and the overall user experienced by dramatically reducing the time to make a liter of soda.A
    Another innovation was the new Sodacap, a syrup-filled pod that users simply depress onto the top of the bottle in order to dispense the flavor. In our view, this technology, along with that found in the Revolution, puts SODA on a course for the introduction of a single serve machine sometime in 2013.

    Analüütikud külastasid iga-aastats majapidamistarvete messi, kus veendusid, et SODA-l on turule tulemas piisavalt uusi innovaatilisi tooteid. Näiteks peaks nelkandas kvartalis turule tulema firma esimene elektriline karboniseeritud joogi masin.
    Oppenheimer kinnitab SODA-le Osta reitingut koos $ 55,00 hinnasihiga.

    We also circled back on 4Q results, and in particular the slowdown in soda maker unit sales. Management once again emphasized that this is a "sell-in" number impacted by a number of issues and does not reflect "sell-through," which remains healthy. In fact, adjusting for certain distributor hiccups, unit sales were up nicely.

    Analüütikud kommenteerivad ka lõppenud kvartali tulemusi, mille peale aktsia on ka alla müüdud, siis rõhutatakse, et müügi aeglustumise suhtes mängis pigem rolli mõningad probleemid edasimüüjatega , kuid müüdud kauba numbrid on endiselt head.

    Finally, we had a chance to speak with other players in the home carbonation category. We continue to believe competition remains very manageable, as SODA's innovation pipeline, coupled with its first-mover advantage and distribution gains, position it very well for future growth.

    Lisaks eelnevale on hindavad analüütikud konkurentide tegevust täiesti käsitletavaks ehk siis olulist ohtu nad SODA-le konkurentsi osas ei näe.

    SODA on viimase kuu aja jooksul väga volatiilne olnud- enne tulemusi osteti aktsia $ 47 taseme juurde üles ja peale tulemusi on jällegi üle 25% kukkunud. Oppenheimer on SODA suhtes olnud väga bullish juba pikka aega ja seetõttu pole positiivne prognoos ka üllatus. Samas on aktsia juba ka piisavalt palju müüki saanud ja toetavad kommentaarid võivad ostjate huvi taas äratada. Sellegipoolest väga suuri ootusi tänase liikumise suhtes ei omaks.

  • Netflix: Cable and satellite companies are not interested in carrying NFLX, according to reports
    http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/thespread/major_cable_satellite_providers_HLuihDnZTEpiJqnJHKCvFL
  • Gapping down
    A few financial related names showing weakness: NBG -3.1%, BCS -2.5%, IRE -2.2%, LYG -1.4%, BAC -1.2%, C -0.6%.

    Other news: ANTH -49.5% (Anthera Pharma halts VISTA-16 clinical study due to lack of efficacy following recommendation by the Independent Data Safety Monitoring Board, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup), RES -25.5% (trading spilt adjusted), TBET -14.6% (still checking), KORS -4.7% (files registration statement for proposed secondary public offering of 25 mln ordinary shares by certain selling shareholders).

    Analyst comments: UAL -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), ORCL -1.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), LUV -1.2% (light volume, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), GIS -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), SJM -0.5% (ticking lower, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman).
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CDTI +28.6%, FCEL +8% (ticking higher), AIS +6.8%, MBT +4.7% (light volume).

    M&A news: TUDO +133.9% (Tudou and Youku to combine to create China online video company), ZOLL +21% (ticking higher; to be acquired by Asahi Kasei Corporation for $93/share), NOOF +1.5% (New Frontier Media confirms receipt of unsolicited, conditional acquisition proposal), PCBC (halted, UnionBanCal Corporation to acquire Pacific Capital Bancorp for $46 per share in cash).

    China internet related names trading higher following TUDO news: DANG +6.6%, RENN +3.7%, SINA +0.8%, SOHU +0.6%,

    Other news: SZYM +5.6% (positive mention on MadMoney), CCL +3.5% (Carnival ticking higher following positive WSJ story related to booking, upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas), BUD +1.4% and NVS +0.8% (still checking), PEP +0.6% (announces new global structure and leadership).

    Analyst comments: OREX +13.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), CHL +1.4% (light volume, upgraded to Overweight at HSBC Securities), CRR +1% (upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley), HSY +0.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman).
  • Tudou and Youku (YOKU) to combine to create Chinese online video co

    Youku (YOKU) and Tudou Holdings (TUDO) announced that they have signed a definitive agreement for Tudou to combine with Youku in a 100% stock-for-stock transaction. Under the terms of the agreement, each Class A ordinary share and Class B ordinary share of Tudou issued and outstanding immediately prior to the effective time of the merger will be cancelled in exchange for the right to receive 7.177 Class A ordinary shares of Youku, and each American depositary share of Tudou, each of which represents four Tudou Class B ordinary shares, will be cancelled in exchange for the right to receive 1.595 American depositary shares of Youku, each of which represents 18 Youku Class A ordinary shares resulting in Youku and Tudou shareholders and ADS holders owning ~71.5% and 28.5% of the combined entity, respectively, immediately upon completion of the transaction. Upon completion, the combined entity will be named Youku Tudou Inc. Youku's ADSs will continue to be listed on the NYSE under the symbol "YOKU".

    Ehk siis YOKU peaks võtma TUDO üle $39.89
    TUDO is +125% after announcing it would be acquired by YOKU in a stock deal that values the TUDO ADRs at ~$39.89, based on Friday's closing price of YOKU.

    Hetkel TUDO +204% $46.79 ja YOKU +22% $30.50
  • SODA suhtes peab hoiatuseks ütlema, et Jim Cramer tegeleb hetkel Twitteris üsna aktiivselt SODA kritiseerimisega, seega ettevaatust.

  • Riverbed Technology:Rumor being circulated is DELL for RVBD; price chatter is high-$30s

  • Threshold Pharma: Fidelity discloses new 14.990% stake in 13G filing
  • Vaatamata sellele, et SODA avanes täna üle 3% kõrgemalt ($ 35,80), siis pakkus aktsia avanemisel siiski veel ka põrke. Aktsia tuli peale avanemist natuke allapoole ($ 35,50), et seal ülespoole liikuda. SODA käis ära ka $ 37 taseme all ja hetkel kaupleb $ 36,35 kandis ehk 5% plusspoolel.

  • Palju QEd on vaja, et Briti majandus tõuseks? Palju aega on vaja, et QEst vabaneda?
    Briti peaminister David Cameron avab esmaspäeval ametlikult uue valitsuse programmi NewBuy Guarantee, mis annab eluasemeostjatele riigi tagatise, kirjutab ajaleht Telegraph.

    Programmi kohaselt antakse tagatis kuni 500 000 naela suurusele kodulaenule, mis võib moodustada 95 protsenti eluaseme hinnast. See tähendab, et omainvesteering peab olema maksimumlaenu puhul 25 000 naela, vahendab BNS.

    Uue tagatise võib saada kuni 100 000 soovijat.

    Briti valitsuse teatel aitab uus programm inimestel kodu soetada, samuti ehitustööstust ja parandab tööhõivet.
  • Skeem on suunatud esmakordselt kodu ostvatele, kuigi teisi ka minema vist ei saadeta, ostetav kodu peab olema uus ja olema kindlalt koduks mitte välja üürimiseks. Taotleja peab olema UK kodanik. Saavad lihtsalt seisva kv liikvele. Muidu on UKs üldiselt vist min. 10% omafin. nõudeks olnud, selle skeemi kaudu siis 5%.
    Kui kallis raha skeemi kaudu on?
    NatWest: two-year fix at 4.29pc, with a £499 arrangement fee, five-year fix at 4.99pc (with the same fee).
    Barclays: two-year fix at 4.99pc and a four-year fix at 5.89pc, £499 arrangement fee.
    Nationwide: three-year fix at 5.69pc and a five-year fix at 5.99pc, fee £499.
    Only a handful of lenders offer 95pc mortgages at present. Outside scheme the best is from Skipton Building Society, charging 6.29pc on a five-year fix (with a £195 fee). mortgage brokers said the rates looked good when compared with the deals being offered to those who have saved a 10pc deposit. Here, Nottingham building society is offering a five-year fix at 4.74pc (with no fee), only marginally cheaper than NatWest's NewBuy deal, which doesn’t require such a large deposit. However, those who can save a significantly larger deposit will qualify for a cheaper deal. Market Harborough building society, for example, charges just 3.99pc on its five-year fixed-rate deal (with a £245 fee), but only on mortgages that are worth no more than 80pc of the property’s value.
  • Wynn Resorts: Reuters reporting that Okada has filed a lawsuit against WYNN for right to redeem shares
  • Mul on vahepeal läinud sassi, mitu QEd britid on teinud … ja palju sellest reaalset kasu on. Nüüd nad loodavad olümpiale.

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