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Börsipäev 3. aprill

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  • Teise kvartali esimesel päeval jätkati sealt, kus märtsi lõpus lugu pooleli jäi. Erinevate riikide töötleva tööstuste seisust kõnelevad raportid andsid eile ülevaate sellest, mis suunas on majandused märtsis liikunud. Hiina raport üllatas positiivselt kuigi paljud ilmselt alahindasid hooajalisusest tingitud mõju, mistõttu ei näinud me ka Euroopa sessiooni ajal erilist eufooriat. Viimast aitas tagasi hoida eurotsooni enda lõplik PMI number, mis püsis küll samal tasemel märtsi keskel avalikustatud näitajaga (47,7 punkti) jäädes siiski selgelt madalamaks veebruari 49,0 punktist.

    Turud jäid närviliseks kuni Ühendriikide ISMi avalikustamiseni, sest möödunud nädala regionaalsed PMId viitasid ohule, et ka üldine indeks võib pettumuse valmistada. Kuid sentiment sai kohest tuge, kui selgus, et ISM osutus oodatust veidi paremaks tõustes veebruariga võrreldes ühe punkti võrra 53,4 punktile (oodati 53,0 punkti). Alaindeksitest peegeldasid nii tootmine kui tööhõive tugevust, samas uute tellimuste komponent jäi pehmemaks. Tänu USA töötleva tööstuse oodatust paremale seisule lõpetas Stoxx 600 päeva 1,5%lise tõusuga nädala kõrgeimal tasemel ja S&P 500 suutis sulguda 0,75% plussis.

    Allolevalt jooniselt on näha, et võrreldes teiste riikidega jäi aktiivsus töötlevas tööstuses nõrgemaks eurotsoonis, mida siin esindavad Saksamaa ja Prantsusmaa.


    Tänane makrokalender keskendub USAle, kus kell 17.00 raporteeritakse veebruari tehaste tellimuste muutus, kell 21.00 FOMC eelmise kohtumise protokoll ja päeva jooksul märtsikuu autode müüginumbrid.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad nulli lähedal ja sarnaste muutuste juures on alustamas päeva ka Euroopa tähtsamad börsiindeksid.
  • Deutsche on värske ISM numbriga jooksutanud läbi oma regressioonanalüüsi ning jõudnud järeldusele, et indeksi 53,4 punktine väärtus vastab 10%lisele S&P 500 aastasele kasvule. Kuna 2011.a 1. aprillil oli S&P 500 väärtus 1332, siis antud ISM numbri juures peaks S&P 500 nö õiglane väärtus olema 1465 punkti vs eilne sulgumine 1419 punkti peal. Väike upside potentsiaal seega oleks aga oleme üsna õiglase taseme lähedal.
  • Hispaania töötute armee kasvas märtsis 38,8 tuhande võrra 4,75 miljoni inimeseni, mis märgib kuuga 0,8%list kasvu. Kasvu tempo on siiski oluliselt langenud võrreldes aasta algusega ning ka Bloombergi kolme analüütiku keskmisest ootusest (54K) osutus number paremaks.
  • Ühe Kreeka rahandusministri ametniku sõnul ootavad pärast valimisi riiki ees tõenäoliselt täiendavad kärpemeetmed lisaks juba väljakuulutatud programmidele, kuna esimese kahe kuu eelarvetulud jäävad prognoosidest juba 1 miljardi jagu madalamaks ja märts pole olukorda muutust toonud. ekathimerini.com kirjutab pikemalt
  • USA autodemüük on kahel eelneval kuul ületanud tublisti ootusi ning sama tendentsi jätkumist prognoositakse ka märtsis, mis on harilikult olnud üks parimaid kuid terve aasta peale. Märtsi müügi mahuks oodatakse 1,5 miljonit sõidukit ehk 17% rohkem võrreldes aastataguse perioodiga ja 26% enam võrreldes veebruariga. Kui aga number hooajaliselt ära korrigeerida ning annualiseerida, siis peaks näitaja jääma 14,9 miljoni peale, nii et ei tasu ära ehmatada kui veebruari 15,0 miljonile hooajalise korrigeerimise tõttu alla jäädakse.
  • China March Non-Manufacturing PMI rebounds in March. Hämm :)
  • Ehh, Barclays, kes tegi juunis 2011 initi buy peale NFLX (vahepeal defendis kogu see aeg ülevalt alla) arvab täna, et see siiski ei ole buy.
  • ymeramees
    Ehh, Barclays, kes tegi juunis 2011 initi buy peale NFLX (vahepeal defendis kogu see aeg ülevalt alla) arvab täna, et see siiski ei ole buy.


    Ei teagi, kumb etem. Goldman tegi AZO-le sügisel 2010 $200 peal dg to sell. Nüüd sel aastal 350 kandis läks neutraliks ning täna arvab, et ug to buy on paslik.
  • Piisab kui keegi teeb otsa lahti ja sellest saab new normal. Apple sulgus eile 3% kõrgemal ning tänased eelturu 0,9% on hinna tõstnud juba 624 dollarini

    Apple: Piper Jaffray says AAPL will reach $1000 in 2014 and become first $1 trln co
  • Erko Rebane
    Piisab kui keegi teeb otsa lahti ja sellest saab new normal. Apple sulgus eile 3% kõrgemal ning tänased eelturu 0,9% on hinna tõstnud juba 624 dollarini

    Apple: Piper Jaffray says AAPL will reach $1000 in 2014 and become first $1 trln co


    15. märts Munster Apple price target raised to $718 from $670 at Piper Jaffray
    Piper Jaffray raised its price target for Apple to reflect the company's growing market share in smartphones and tablets. Piper estimates Apple will sell 385M iPhones and 176M iPads in 2015, driving $80 in EPS on $320B in revenue. Piper said Apple Television is not in its estimates, which could add 4% to each year's revenue estimates. The firm said it remains a buyer of Apple shares with an Overweight rating.

    03. aprill Munster Apple shares will reach $1,000 in 2014, says Piper Jaffray
    Piper Jaffray said in a note to investors this morning that Apple shares will reach $1,000 in 2014, implying a market cap of around $1 trillion, the first in history. Piper believes Apple will continue to win market share in global mobile devices and raised 12-month price target for shares to $910 from $718. The firm maintains an Overweight rating on Apple.


    Huvitav, mida ta kahe nädala pärast arvab?
  • Apple'i tulemused täpselt kolme nädala pärast, eks siis ole hea võimalus taas numbreid korrigeerida :)
  • Mitte et viimased kolm kuud pole börsidel juba piisavalt head olnud, siis just aprill peaks ajalooliselt hiilgama aasta kõige kõige tulusama kuuna.

    April is still the best Dow month (average 2.0%) since 1950
    ◆ April 1999 first month ever to gain 1000 Dow points, 856 in 2001, knocked off its high horse in 2002 down 458, 2003 up 488
    ◆ Up five straight, average gain 4.3%
    ◆ Prone to weakness after mid- month tax deadline
    ◆ Stocks anticipate great first quarter earnings by rising sharply before earnings are reported, rather than after
    ◆ Rarely a dangerous month, recent exceptions are 2002, 2004, and 2005
    ◆ “Best Six Months” of the year end with April
    ◆ In pre-presidential election years since 1951, average gains more than double (Dow 4.3%, S&P 3.7%, NASDAQ 3.7%)
    ◆ End of April NASDAQ strength.
  • Nagu eespool juba juttu on olnud siis, Apple(AAPL)-i investorite seas väga kõrgelt hinnatud Piper Jaffray analüütik Gene Munster tõstab täna aktsia hinnasihi $ 718 pealt $ 910 peale ja kinnitab oma Osta soovitust.

    Price Target Moving To $910, Why Not Just $1,000? We are moving our price target to $910 (was $718) based on the same 14x multiple, as we roll forward to our CY14 estimates (previously CY13). While our 12-month price target is $910, we believe shares of AAPL can reach $1,000 beyond our one year price target window, specifically in 2014 when we believe investors will begin to factor in CY15 numbers

    The iPhone Upgrade Opportunity, Conservatively A Third Of Units Are “In The Bag” Through 2015. Our survey work last fall suggested 94% of existing iPhone owners in the US expect their next phone will be an iPhone. If you assume 70% of all two year old iPhone owners upgrade in a given quarter, that suggests on average 33% of iPhone’s in a given quarter through 2015 are “in the bag”. We believe this is conservative given it expects an average iPhone life of 24 months. For the iPhone 4S launch, we found 30% of the buyers were from an iPhone 4, suggesting the average upgrade window is closer to 21 months. If we assume an average iPhone life of 21
    months, and 85% of users upgrade to a new iPhone, that implies 45% of iPhone’s through 2015 are “in the bag.


    Analüütikute uurimuse põhjal selgus, et 94% praegustest iPhone`i omanikest jääb kaubamärgile truuks ning ostab ka oma järgmiseks telefoniks iPhone´i. Kui võtta aluseks, et 70% kaks aastat vana iPhone`i omanikud soetavad endale käesoleval kvartalil uuema telefoni, siis keskmiselt 33% telefone on juba sisuliselt ette ära müüdud. Analüütikud hindavad sellist prognoosi isegi konservatiivseks, sest eeldavad, et ühe telefoni keskmine kasutusaeg on kaks aastat. Kui iPhone 4 omanikest juba 30% vahetasid oma seadme iPhone 4S vastu, siis väheneks keskmine kasutusaeg 21-le kuule ja sel juhul oleks juba 45% telefonidest 2015 nö ette müüdud.

    Apple`i aktsia on viimastel kuudel justkui unest ärganud ning teinud aina uusi tippe. Gene Munster on Apple`i katmisel teinud siiani suurepärast tööd ja uus $ 910 suurune hinnasiht tekitab kahtlemata elevust, kuigi skeptikute arvates on Munster oma kaugueleulatuvate prognooside aina ülespoole kergitamisega juba natuke liiale läinud.

    AAPL
  • Chrysleri USA müük märtsis +34% vs oodatud 31%
    Fordi USA müük märtsis 5,0% vs oodatud 5,5%
    GMi USA müük märtsis 11,8% vs oodatud 19%
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: URBN +3.6%, (Urban Outfitters in 10-K last night gave QTD comp guidance: Thus far during 1Q13, comparable retail segment net sales are low single-digit positive, also upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup).

    M&A related: CVI +9.8% (higher following reports that Carl Icahn is set to acquire ~55% of shares of CVI in tender offer; CVR Energy issued statement regarding tender offer results).

    A few auto related names are trading modestly higher ahead of March auto sales: F +1.0% (Bloomberg reporting that Ford's light vehicle sales were up 5% in March), GM +0.6%

    Other news: BNNY +6.8% (positive mention on MadMoney), DDD +4.1% (will replace Taleo in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), NVO +3.8% (still checking), HGSI +2.6% (reported that it is entitled to fees and milestone payments that could amount to as much as $183 million from GlaxoSmithKline's phase 3 trial for Albiglutide), AZN +0.8% (Amgen and AstraZeneca announce collaboration to jointly develop and commercialize clinical-stage inflammation portfolio), YHOO +0.4% (disclosed it 'has been moving aggressively to intensify its focus on delivering shareholder value; remains open to hearing Third Point's ideas).

    Analyst comments: GNC +1.5% (light volume, upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital), AAPL +1% (Piper Jaffray says AAPL will reach $1000 in 2014 and become first $1 trln co; also initiated with a Buy at Auriga), LOPE +0.8% (ticking higher, initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CAVM -1.9%, PBY -1.5%.

    Financial related names showing weakness: ING -3.1%, BBVA -2.8%, STD -2.7%, NBG -2.4%, RY -2.2% (traded lower in after hours trade on WSJ story saying bank has been accused of unlawful trading scheme by the CFTC; Royal Bank of Canada vigorously rejects CFTC allegations as unwarranted), LYG -1.9%, BCS -1.6%, UBS -1.4%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading modestly lower: MT -1.5%, BBL -1%, RIO -0.8%, FCX -0.8%, AU -0.8%, SLV -0.5%, GLD -0.3%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: TOT -1.5%, RIG -1.3%, SNP -1.1%, STO -1%, BP -0.7%.

    Other news: UEC -6.7% (intends to offer and sell up to 5.56 mln shares of its common stock at negotiated price of $3.60 per Share), GWRE -5% (files to sell 7.1 mln shares of common stock for shareholders; co also files to offer 400,000 shares of common stock), MITK -2.5% (comments on USAA lawsuit: 'We believe these claims are without merit and we intend to vigorously defend our IP rights'), SBAC -1.3% (announces commencement of secondary common 5.25 mln shares stock offering), .

    Analyst comments: NFLX -2.6% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays), FAST -1.9% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair), BBY -1% (downgraded to Sell from Buy at McAdams Wright Ragen), NEM -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Citigroup), KO -0.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), PM -0.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse).
  • Ennist oli foorumis juttu ka NFLX downgradest. Barclaysi analüütikud ei põhjenda oma reitingumuutust millegi eriti uue ega üllatavaga, sest muu hulgas viitavad Amazoni poolt tulenevale survele ning üleüldise konkurentsi tihenemisele.

    New entrants in domestic SVOD market: We believe Amazon Prime’s SVOD offering could eventually be carved out as a standalone product that would compete more directly with Netflix for subscribers. Likewise, CMCSA’s recently announced Streampix service could eventually be offered out of footprint as another direct competitor to Netflix. Lastly, we believe the proliferation of TV Everywhere threatens to cannibalize users’ time spent viewing library content on connected-devices.
    Competitive risks abound in int’l markets: While the UK is a compelling market with 20M broadband homes, we note that Netflix will likely face an uphill battle competing with the likes of LOVEFiLM, Sky’s TV Everywhere product Sky Go and new SVOD product NOWtv, set to launch this summer. In LatAm, piracy and low penetration rates for connected devices and credit card usage all present risks to the adoption of Netflix’s service, to go along with early competition in the SVOD market from Direct TV
    .

    NFLX kaupleb eelturul 2,6% miinuspoolel, $ 111 kandis
  • Business Insideri vahendusel võib tutvuda NFLX-i lühikeseks müügi ideega (kuri)kuulsaks saanud Whitney Tilsoni vaadetega nii USA majanduse kui ka aktsiate suhtes.
    Lühidalt öeldes on ta üsna optimistlikult meelestatud, aga kuna S&P500 on juba teinud korraliku ralli, siis märkimisväärset tõusu enam ei oodata. Võimalikud negatiivsed stsenaariumid Hiinas ja USA kinnisvaraturul võivad taastumist pidurdada.
  • February Factory Orders +1.3% vs +1.4% Briefing.com consensus
  • Topeka AAPL calli kohta fun fact:

    Brian White was covering Apple for Ticonderoga, a brokerage that went under a few weeks back. Before the end of his firm, White's price target on Apple was $666 (gimmicky? check!) He's just joined a new firm, called Topeka Capital Markets and has decided to make a splashy entrance - his new Apple target, just a few weeks later, has magically become $1001
  • Doug Kass:My Gnome is hearing that all bidders have walked from RIMM.

    Kassi allikad teavad rääkida, et RIMM vastu ei tunne keegi huvi.
  • Fed Minutes Summary

    -- The information reviewed at the March 13 meeting suggested that economic activity was expanding moderately. Labor market conditions continued to improve and the unemployment rate declined further, although it remained elevated. Overall consumer price inflation was relatively subdued in recent months. More recently, prices of crude oil and gasoline increased substantially. Measures of long-run inflation expectations remained stable. Both the rate of long-duration unemployment and the share of workers employed part time for economic reasons continued to be high.

    -- Broader indicators of manufacturing activity, such as the diffusion indexes of new orders from the national and regional manufacturing surveys, were at Members viewed the information on U.S. economic activity received over the intermeeting period as suggesting that the economy had been expanding moderately and generally agreed that the economic outlook, while a bit stronger overall, was broadly similar to that at the time of their January meeting.

    -- Strains in global financial markets, while having eased since January, continued to Recent monthly readings on inflation had been subdued, and longer-term inflation expectations remained stable. Against that backdrop, members generally anticipated that the recent increase in oil and gasoline prices would push up inflation temporarily, but that subsequently inflation would run at or below the rate that the Committee judges most consistent with its mandate.

    -- In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members agreed that it would be appropriate to maintain the existing highly accommodative stance of monetary policy. In particular, they agreed to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 0.25%, to continue the program of extending the average maturity of the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities as announced in September, and to retain the existing policies regarding the reinvestment of principal payments from Federal Reserve holdings of securities.

    -- With the economic outlook over the medium term not greatly changed, almost all members again agreed to indicate that the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy and currently anticipates that economic conditions—including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run—are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

    -- Several members continued to anticipate, as in January, that the unemployment rate would still be well above their estimates of its longer-term normal level, and inflation would be at or below the Committee's longerrun objective, in late 2014.

    -- It was noted that the Committee's forward guidance is conditional on economic developments, and members concurred that the date given in the statement would be subject to revision in response to significant changes in the economic outlook. While recent employment data had been encouraging, a number of members perceived a nonnegligible risk that improvements in employment could diminish as the year progressed, as had occurred in 2010 and 2011, and saw this risk as reinforcing the case for leaving the forward guidance unchanged at this meeting. In contrast, one member judged that maintaining the current degree of policy accommodation much beyond this year would likely be inappropriate.
  • Teatavasti kaebas Yahoo! (YHOO) Facebooki hiljuti patentide pärast kohtusse ja nüüd on Facebook vastanud täpselt samaga:

    Facebook is suing Yahoo, claiming patent infringement on 10 different patents.
    This is in response to Yahoo's lawsuit against Facebook, which says Facebook is infringing on a dozen patents. Facebook wants to have the lawsuit dropped, and it's firing back to with patents that it's developed on its own, as well as purchased from outside companies.

  • Goldman now says "June the most likely timing at this point" for QE3 announcement

    Zerohedge

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