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Börsipäev 17. juuli

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Lootus, et Bernanke kavatseb täna õhtul rääkida majanduse täiendavast stimuleerimisest, hoiab turgude meeleolu üleval vaatamata suhteliselt negatiivsetest uudistest. Stoxx 600 lõpetas 0,2% kõrgemal, S&P 500 suutis aga päeva lõpuks suurema kaotuse maha raputada ning sulguda -0,23% madalamal võrreldes reedese sulgumisega.

    Makrouudised kipuvad endiselt jääma ootustele alla, kui eilne USA jaemüügiraport valmistas selge pettumuse. Võrreldes maikuuga kahanes jaemüük juunis -0,5%, mis oli ka kõige pessimistlikuma nägemusega analüütiku ootusest kehvem (konsensus prognoosis 0,2% kasvu). Sama nõrgad olid numbrid ka autode müüki arvestamata ja tähendas mitmete analüüsimajade jaoks järjekordset kärbet USA teise kvartali SKT prognoosis, kui Goldman alandas oma ootuse kahe kümnendiku võrra 1,1% peale ning Deutsche nelja kümnendiku võrra 1,0% peale.

    Samuti ei huvitanud kedagi see, et Saksamaa konstitutsioonikohus kavatseb otsuse ESMi osas langetada alles 12. septembriks (kui esialgsete plaanid kohaselt pidanuks ESM juba juulis töös olema) ja et IMF räägib maailmamajanduse väljavaatest taas veidi negatiivsemas võtmes. Viimane ootab globaalse majanduse tänavuseks kasvuks endiselt 3,5%, ent tõi järgmise aasta prognoosi 4,1% pealt 3,9%le.

    Tulles tänase päeva juurde, siis nagu öeldud, oodatakse ärevalt Bernanke esinemist Kongressi ees, kus ta annab tunnistuse rahapoliitikast ja majanduslikust väljavaatest. Kuigi makro on edasi halvenenud pärast FOMC viimast kohtumist, siis ei ole pööre olnud piisavalt drastiline, et tingida üleöö muutust keskpanga juhi seisukohtades ning tõenäoliselt midagi uut enne 1. augusti FOMC kohtumist ei kuule ja see loob turu jaoks taaskord pigem võimaluse pettumuseks.

    Majandustulemused teatavad enne USA avanemist Coca-Cola, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Mosaic. Pärast turgu raporteerivad aga Intel ja Yahoo!

    Tänane makrokalender:
    11.30 Suurbritannia inflatsioon (juuni)
    12.00 Saksamaa ZEW indeksid (juuli)
    15.30 USA tarbijahinnaindeks (juuni)
    16.15 USA tööstustoodangu muutus (juuni)
    17.00 Ben Bernanke esinemine

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,4% kõrgemal, Euroopa on avanemas poole protsendi jagu plussis.
  • USA 10a yield suutis eile teha uue ajaloolise põhja, mida pole väidetavalt nähtud viimased 220 aastat. Bloombergi graafik kahjuks kaugemale ei ulata aga aktsiaturg jääb selle kõige juures suhteliselt rahulikuks.

  • Spain Borrowing Costs Fall at 12-Month Bill Auction.
    EU2.6b total sold. * Avg yield 3.918% vs 5.074% at 364-day bill auction on June 19 * Bid/Cover 2.23 vs 2.16 at 364-day bill auction on June 19
    * Bloomberg
  • Saksamaa investorid ja analüütikud on jooksva olukorra ning ootuste hindamisel muutunud pessimistlikumaks. Jooksva seisu hinnangut kajastav indeks kukkus juuni 33,2 punkti pealt juulis 21,1 punktile (oodati 30,0) ning järgneva kuue kuu väljavaate ootusi kajastav indeks taandus -16,9 pealt -19,6 punktile (oodati -20,0).
  • Suurbritannia tarbijahinnaindeks on teinud juunis läbi korraliku langus, alanedes YoY baasil maikuu 2,8% pealt 2,4% peale (oodati püsimist samal tasemel), mis on ühest küljest heaks uudise tarbijatele ja teisest küljest ka keskpangale, andes viimasele vabamad käed vajadusel QE programmi suurendada.
  • Goldman Sachs prelim $1.78 vs $1.18 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $6.63 bln vs $6.06 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate (97.68)
  • Coca-Cola prelim $1.22 vs $1.19 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $13.09 bln vs $12.98 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: JOEZ +8.5% (thinly traded), PPHM +7.5%, MAT +5.0%, CMA +3.9%, PKG +2.9%, MOS +2.4%, GS +1.4% (also State Street to acquire Goldman Sachs Administration Services for $550 mln in cash), KO +1.3% (light volume).

    Select financial related names showing strength: SAN +2.6%, BCS +2.1%, BAC +1.2%, MS +1.2%, C +0.7%.

    Select oil/energy related names showing strength: BTU +1.4% (Peabody Energy and Kinder Morgan enter into long-term gulf coast coal export agreements), RIG +1.3%, SLB +1.2%, SDRL +1.2%, BP +0.6%, SD +0.6%.

    Other news: WEST +46.2% (thinly traded, announced that Comtec Distributing has selected Westinghouse Solar as their exclusive supplier of solar power systems), DGIT +24.9% (to explore strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value), ALTH +18.2% (following sell-off into the close, being acquired by SPPI), PATH +9% (announces migraine patch NDA resubmission), CDXS +7.5% (announced that the company has signed an Exclusive Negotiation Agreement with Shell), CGV +4.6% (ticking higher, announces first GOM FAZ Survey with StagSeis Subsalt Imaging Breakthrough), GMXR +4.4% (intends to monetize a portion of East Texas liquids rich natural gas assets), ANTH +3.8% (continued strength), YHOO +2.9% (Yahoo! appoints Marissa Mayer Chief Executive Officer), VVUS +2.1% and OREX +2.7% (still checking), VMW +1.5% (VMware to spin out cloud assets, according to reports), SIG +1% (disclosed it authorized $50 mln increase in existing program to repurchase common shares to $350 mln), LTM +0.8% (positive mention on MadMoney), .

    Analyst comments: S +4.6% (tgt raised to $6 from $4 at Credit Suisse), LVS +1.8% (upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna, initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital), CMG +1.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup), DIS +1.1% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ALU -14.6% (states it will not achieve FY adj operating margin guidance, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), MFRM -12.7%, MILL -12.6% (thinly traded), EDU -10.2% (light volume, downgraded to Neutral at Robert W. Baird), NBR -4.9%, SFG -4.6%, JBHT -4% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), ICUI -2.4% (light volume), BRO -2.4%, FLIR -1.8%, MMR -1.6%, JNJ -1.4%, CTAS -1%.

    Other news: SCSS -7.4% and TPX -2.6% (lower following MFRM results), LNG -3.6% (LNG agreed to sell 20,000,000 shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), AUQ -3.2% (reports Q2 production of 51,101 gold ounces and 894,414 million silver ounces; CEO Rene Marion steps down for health reasons; Scott Perry appointed CEO), RIMM -2.7% (still checking), SPLK -1.5% (filed for ~11.7 mln share common stock offering by stockholders in amended S-1), RIO -1.3% (provides Q2 ops uddtae; H1 iron ore production of 120 mln tonnes).

    Analyst comments: DNKN -3.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan), NOK -1.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies), LOW -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Capital).
  • Ben There, Done That
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Jul 17, 2012 | 8:08 AM EDT |

    "The Fed doesn't really have any better information than other people in the market about what the correct value of asset prices is."

    -- Ben Bernanke

    It is all about big Ben Bernanke and the potential for further quantitative easing today. We have more talk about the economy being on the verge of falling into recession again, and the big question is whether the Fed is going to act now to try to prompt us up again or will it just keep its options open and wait for further data.

    The skeptics correctly state that quantitative easing obviously hasn't done much to help the economy if we are on the verge of another recession. It did, however, boost the stock market, and that is all that investors are really concerned about. At least, we might be able to make some money in stocks while the real-world economy continues to stumble like a drunken bum.

    Technically, the market is sitting in the middle of a trading range that it has formed over the past couple weeks, and all it needs is a shove in one direction or the other. Upside resistance is at 1375 on the S&P 500, and downside support is around the 50-day simple moving average at 1325-1330. A breach in either direction will bring in the momentum chasers.

    The market seems to be anticipating something positive from Ben Bernanke at the Senate hearing today, and that has me concerned. While the economy has been struggling and we obviously still have issues in Europe, the message from the Fed lately is that it isn't going to act unless there are clear negative developments. Ben Bernanke has repeatedly said that he will act as needed but that the Fed continues to monitor data and isn't rushing to do anything.

    I'm looking for Dr. Bernanke to repeat the same mantra once again -- the Fed is watching closely and will act as needed but isn't doing anything at this time. The market is not likely to find that message very appealing, and we are likely to see selling pressure as a result.

    Nothing matters more than the Fed right now, but earnings will start to roll out in earnest, and that is going to influence the mood as well. One of the most important reports is from Intel (INTC), which is due tonight. The company's earnings have a history of producing turning points, but it is worrisome how weak the semiconductor sector is acing lately.

    Goldman Sachs' (GS) and Coca-Cola's (KO) reports look OK, but we had warnings last night from J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) and Mattress Firm Holding (MFRM). Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is guiding down, which is not a good sign. While expectations for earnings are low, they may not be low enough.

    Buckle up, and we shall see what Ben Bernanke has in store for us. Nothing else matters right now.
  • Õhtul tasub jälgida CNBC või Bloombergi vahendusel Nasdaqi lõpukella, kuna täna on selle helistamiseks spetsiaalselt kohale sõitnud LHV delegatsioon :)
  • June Headline CPI Y/Y +1.7%; Core CPI Y/Y +2.2%
    June CPI M/M 0.0% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus
    June Core CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus

  • Kreekal peaks augustis aeguma üks suurem EKP laen ja kuna raha on otsa saamas ning troika tahab näha enne uue laenueraldise väljastamist uusi kärpelubadusi, siis pannakse riik taas keerulisse positsooni

    Headline from Greece Finance Ministry official saying country seeking a bridge loan to cover financing needs until September
  • June Capacity Utilization 78.9% vs 79.0% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 78.7% from 79.0%
    June Industrial Production +0.4% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to -0.2% from -0.1%

  • Erko Rebane
    Õhtul tasub jälgida CNBC või Bloombergi vahendusel Nasdaqi lõpukella, kuna täna on selle helistamiseks spetsiaalselt kohale sõitnud LHV delegatsioon :)

    Börsi sulgemiskella helistamise ajaks peaks Times Square'i Nasdaqi tabloole kuvatama ka Eesti lipp ja LHV logo. Seda Nasdaqi Times Square'i tablood saab otseülekandes jälgida näiteks sellelt lingilt - häält küll ei ole, kuid pilt on selge ja terav.

    Link tseremoonia ajakavale ja läbiviimisele on siin.

    Minu soojad tervitused kõigile LHV delegatsiooniliikmetele!

  • Kas saab kuskilt onlines ka jälgida hääle ja pildiga või on targem juba tagantjärgi kusagilt vaadata?
  • Väike kokkuvõte Bernnake jutust:

    Ben Bernanke gave testimony to the Senate Banking Committee today. He repeated that the Fed is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote stronger recovery; says economic activity appears to have decelerated, indicators point to second quarter growth below the first quarter pace of ~2%. Bernanke notes a range of possibilities for more support to economy; notes different types of purchase programs (Treasuries and/or MBS); could use discount window (IOER); could use langauge regarding rates and balance sheets... says does not want to give any indication on what action he would take.
    •Says projection for inflation will be 'close to or below target'; says inflation risk is relatively low but notes not everyone agrees with that; says modest risk of it going toward the deflationary side
    •Sen Schumer says that Congress is unlikely to take action until after elections; says that the Fed is the 'only game in town' and wants them to push through stimulus; 'I urge you to take whatever actions are necessary regardless of political pressure'.
    •Asked about court cases on Libor; says too soon to guess the outcome; notes some estimates by analysts but states even analysts have admitted that it is back of the envelope math; says would not be prudent to forecast what the final cost will be.
  • LHV uhkusest pakatav esindus ära nähtud ja samal ajal on teatanud juba mõned ettevõtted oma teise kvartali majandustulemused:

    Intel prelim $0.54 vs $0.52 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $13.5 bln vs $13.56 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Intel sees Q3 revs $13.8-14.8 bln vs $14.64 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    Wynn Resorts prelim $1.38 vs $1.54 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1.25 bln vs $1.36 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

  • Mõned pildid siia veel - igaljuhul Baltikumi regiooni aitab see taas veidi enam maailmakaardile panna.

  • Kuidas see juhtus, et LHV Nasdaqile kutsuti? Kas juhus või mingite näitajate järgi? Kas esimesed eestlastest kellakõlistajad?
  • Mitte midagi siin ilmas pole juhuslik :)
    Kutse Nasdaqile oli igati ausalt välja teenitud, kuna see oli auhind parimale NASDAQ OMX Balti börsiliikmele ja just selle tiitliga pärjati tänavu jaanuaris LHV Pank. Minu teada on eelnevalt Nasdaqil kella helistamas käinud ka president ehk T.H. Ilves.

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