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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 17. september

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Läinud nädal lõppes positiivse noodiga, kui tänu USA keskpanga rahatrüki plaanile liikusid ülespoole nii aktsiad, võlakirjad kui toorained. Stoxx600 indeks sulgus 1,6% kõrgemal ning positiivseks jäi pärast neljapäevast rallit ka S&P 500, lisades oma väärtusele veel 0,4%.

    USA makro tekitas erinevaid emotsioone. Ühest küljest näitas augustikuu jaemüük 0,9% kasvu võrreldes juuliga, mis osutus oodatud 0,7%st paremaks. Kasvu allikateks oli aga automüügi 1,3% ja kütuse 5,5% MoM kasv, millest viimane oli tingitud hinnatõusust. Ilma nendeta paranes jaemüük eelneva kuuga võrreldes vaid 0,1%. Negatiivselt üllatas Ühendriikide augusti tööstustoodangu -1,2% langus, kui analüütikud ootasid -0,2% vähenemist, mis võib jätta analüütikute ootused USA aasta teise poole majanduskasvu osas liiga optimistlikuks. Positiivse poole pealt näitas Michigani ülikooli tarbijasentimendi indeks märkimisväärset paranemist septembris, kerkides augusti 74,3 punkti pealt 79,2 punktile (oodati 73,5).

    Lõppenud nädala kahe suursündmuse (ESMi ratifitseerimist lubanud Saksa konstitutsioonikohtu otsus ja USA keskpanga rahatrüki kolmas voor) valguses tõotab käesolev nädal kujuneda oluliselt vaiksemaks. Paljud spekuleerisid, et Hispaania võib kasutada võmalust ning esitada nädalavahetusel Euroopa rahandusministrite mitteametlikul kohtumisel abipalve, ent seda ei juhtunud. Järgmised ametlikud kokkusaamised ja ka ELi tippkohtumine leiavad aset oktoobri alguses, mistõttu loetakse neid potentsiaalseteks üritustesteks, kus ametlik pöördumine võidakse teha.

    Nädala keskel leiab aset Jaapani keskpanga istung, mille raames võidakse varade ostuprogrammi mahtu suurendada. Neljapäeval saabuvad esimesed septembri PMI numbrid Hiina ja Euroopa majanduste kohta. USA puhul jääb vast kõige huvitavamaks makrouudiseks kolmapapäeval raporteeritav augustikuu kinnisvarastistika.

    Tänane makrokalender:

    15.30 Empire State töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (september)

    USA indeksite futuurid liiguvad hetkel -0,2% punases, Euroopa on alustamas 0,5% madalamal.
  • FT kirjutab tänases avaloos, et FEDi plaan osta kinnisvaralaenudega tagatud väärtpabereid ei pruugi väga kiirest efekti saavutada, kuna pankade laenude töötlejate arv on madal ning see on tekitanud probleeme kasvanud nõudluse rahuldamisel.

    Wells Fargo and JPMorgan, responsible for almost half new loans, are moving thousands of staff to the frontline of mortgage origination but are still struggling to cope, analysts say.
    Bank of America, meanwhile, has shied away from the opportunities of writing new loans, dramatically scaling back a business whose past missteps still plague the company.

    Banks acknowledge privately that the standard time between agreeing a loan and it closing has risen from about a month to as much as three months.
  • Gapping up
    M&A news: IRIS +40.3% (IRIS Intl to be acquired by Danaher for ~$19.50/share), GNOM +11.2% (Complete Genomics and BGI-Shenzhen announce definitive agreement to merge; U.S. subsidiary of BGI will launch a tender offer to purchase all outstanding shares of common stock of Complete for $3.15 per share in cash, without interest).

    Other news: ODP +12.6% (Starboard confirms 13.3% ownership in co; sends letter to CEO and Board of Directors; states that office depot is deeply undervalued), DVAX +11.2% (positive mention on MadMoney), TSLA +6.9% (still checking), YPF +5.9% (still checking), KCG +4.9% (Knight Capital Group releases Aug trading volumes; Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.6%, 2.0% and 4.3% YoY, respectively), NOK +2% and CS +1.8% (still checking for anything specific), FB +1.8% (continued strength), YNDX +1.3% (ticking higher on reports that it will replace Google for maps in iOS6), LNG +1.2% (positive mention on MadMoney), AAPL +0.4% (continued strength), RDS.A +0.3% (provides Alaska drilling update; containment dome aboard the Arctic Challenger barge was damaged), .

    Analyst comments: TSLA +6.9% (upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley), NVS +0.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas ), TGH +0.6% (upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital)
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LDK -6.5%, TYC -3.1%, (announces shareholder approval of spinoffs and lowers Q4 guidance for Fire and Security segment; lowers Q4 margin for domestic ADT; reaffirms Flow Control guidance).

    A few coal names showing early weakness: ACI -2.7%, ANR -2.3%, WLT -1.2%.

    Other news: THLD -19.7% (Threshold Pharma reports data from Phase 2b clinical trial of TH-302 in combination with Gemcitabine), BIOF -5.1% (modestly pulling back), OREX -4.7% (files for $150 mln mixed securities shelf offering), ZNGA -1.6% (Reuters discusses allegations that ZNGA has made against Electronic Arts (EA) over employee hiring).

    Analyst comments: AKS -4.6% (downgraded earlier to Neutral at JP Morgan, downgraded to Fair Value from Buy at CRT Capital), X -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan), BT -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas ), WFC -0.9% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolas), UA -0.9% (ticking lower: downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus), BBVA -0.8% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas ), DB -0.6% (Deutsche Bank downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse)
  • Bad News Is Bad News Again
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Sep 17, 2012 | 7:50 AM EDT | 2

    If something hasn't broken on your helicopter, it's about to. -- Sign over Carrier Group Operations Desk

    Given how the market rallied for months following the announcement of QE1 and QE2 it isn't at all surprising that we had a euphoric response to Helicopter Ben's QE3 last week. The big question now is whether it is different this time or can the market run for months like it did previously?

    Although the it's-different-this-time argument is always dangerous, there are a number of reasons to believe that this may be the case.

    First and foremost, the reason we have QE3 is because the first two rounds of QE obviously failed to achieve their goals. The Fed printed huge amounts of cheap money that boosted the stock market, but didn't fix the economic issues that were the primary problem, especially the stubborn high unemployment rate.

    The other thing that is different this time is that the measures are open-ended. The Fed is going to keep on buying mortgage backed securities for as long as it takes. The problem is that if that doesn't work, it is pretty much out of ammunition. There isn't much more that monetary policy can do and obviously our politicians are useless when it comes to fiscal policy.

    For quite some time the market has benefited from the dynamic that bad news is good because it will force the central banks to act and good news is good as well because thing are improving. But now that we have open-ended quantitative easing, from both the Fed and the ECB, we are going to shift back to a more traditional environment where bad news is bad and good news is good. The economic reports will likely see more normal reactions.

    The central bankers no longer have the capacity to adjust to bad news with more announcements. They have already addressed the potential of future negatives by making their plans open-ended. Maybe they can increase the size of their programs, but they have already fully committed themselves and are unlikely to offer up anything else very soon.

    So does this mean that the market is on the verge of topping out?

    The good news for the bulls is that the market has some very strong momentum, there is substantial performance anxiety and quite a bit of pessimism. As we have seen in the past the market has a surprisingly strong inclination toward V-shaped moves, even when it is extended and a sell-the-news reaction seems likely.

    Virtually everyone, even the hardcore bulls, would agree that we could use some consolidation at this point, but the market has been quite stingy in giving the dip buyers much of an opportunity. The big dilemma at this point is that entry points are tough. It has been a market of chasing the last few days and if you have cash to put to work you aren't seeing many easy entries.

    The dip buyers should provide some pretty good support and I'm not looking for the market to suddenly fall apart. But without some consolidation it is going to extremely tough to put money to work. I've reduced positions quite a bit into the recent strength and I'll be watching for setups to develop.

    I'm hopeful that with the central banks on the sidelines we will see the focus shift to stock picking. Keep in mind that the price action continues to be quite positive and that anticipating weakness has been a disaster. Let the market be your guide.
  • Töötlevas tööstuses trend endiselt nõrk, vähemalt esimese regionaalse küsitluse põhjal

    September Empire Manufacturing -10.4 vs -3.0 Briefing.com consensus; August -5.9



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