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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 3. oktoober

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Aktsiaturud liikusid eile ilma kindla suunatajuta, kui makrouudiseid jagus vähe ning Euroopas jätkus poliitiline köievedu sel teemal, kas Hispaania peaks finantsabi paluma või mitte. Stoxx 600 lõpetas päeva -0,3% võrra madalamal, kuigi Hispaania aktsiaturg paistis silma oma 1,1% tõusuga. Terve sessiooni esimese tunni tippudest allapoole tiksunud S&P 500 nägi lõpuks siiski kerget ostuhuvi, mis aitas indeksil põrgata tagasi nulli lähedale (+0,1%).

    Euroopa sessiooni alguses kirjutas Reuters, et Hispaania on valmis abi paluma ning see võib aset leida juba käesoleval nädalavahetusel. Samas toodi välja, et küsimus pole niivõrd olnud peaministri vastumeelsuses ESMi poole pöörduda, kuivõrd Saksamaa enda palves sellega viivitada kuniks nende 21 oktoobril toimuvad regionaalsed valimised läbi saavad. Pärast Euroopa sulgumist Mariano Rajoy tõdes ühel pressikonverentsil, et tal pole lähiajal plaanis abi paluda, mis viis plussis olnud USA indeksid miinuspoolele.

    Makrouudiseid oli suhteliselt vähe. Hispaanias kasvas septembris registreeritud töötute arv 79,6 tuhande võrra 4,705 miljonini, mis oli küll mõnevõrra vähem võrreldes eelmise aasta septembri kasvuga, ent oodatud 57 tuhandest siiski rohkem. Üheksa kuuga on töötute arv kasvanud Hispaanias 478,5 tuhande võrra.

    Autotootjad aga raporteerisid oma Ühendriikide müüginumbrid, kui annualiseeritult ja hooajaliselt silutud näitaja jõudis septembris 14,88 miljonini – selgelt üle ootuste ning kõrgeim alates 2008.a märtsist.


    Tänasest kalendrist vaatab vastu PMI indeksite teine ring, seekord teenindussektori omad. Hiina teenindussektori PMI kukkus augusti 56,3 punkti pealt septembris 53,7 punkti peale. Päeva jooksul avalikustavad oma teenindussektori käekäigu Euroopa riigid, kulmineerudes eurotsooni näitajaga kell 11.00. Euroopast saabub veel eurotsooni augusti jaemüügi muutus, seejärel liigub tähelepanu juba USA ADP küsitlusele ja teenindussektori ISM indeksile. Õhtul leiab aset ka esimene kolmest debatist kahe USA presidendikandidaadi vahel.

    10.15 Hispaania teenindussektori PMI (september)
    10.45 Itaalia teenindussektori PMI (september)
    10.50 Prantsusmaa teenindussektori PMI (september)
    10.55 Saksamaa teenindussektori PMI (september)
    11.00 Eurotsooni teenindussektori PMI (september)
    11.28 Suurbritannia teenindussektori PMI (september)
    12.00 Eurotsooni jaemüügi muutus (august)
    15.15 USA ADP tööjõu küsitlus (september)
    17.00 USA teenindussektori ISM (september)

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,1% madalamal, Euroopa on alustamas nulli lähedal või kerges miinuses.
  • Morgan Stanley sõnul üllatas USA automüügi puhul positiivselt just see, et jaemüügi tugevus ei tulnud autotootjate sooduskampaaniatest, sest septembri stiimulid olid mullusega võrreldes 10% madalamad ning 3% väiksemad võrreldes augustiga. Kodumaistest tootjatest näitas parimat müügi kasvu Chrysler (+12%), Ford ja GM esinesid nõrgemalt. Üldist müüki aitasid septembris kõrgemale pressida just Aasia autotootjad, kellest Toyota raporteeris 42%, Honda +31% ja Hyundai-Kia +23,4% müügi kasvust. Analüüsimaja usub, et uute mudelite lansseerimised, soodsad laenutingimused ja tagasi hoitud nõudlus aitavad müüki tugevana hoida ka neljandas kvartalis,

    FY 2012 SAAR on track for 14.4mm. US SAAR needs to average 14.7mm during 4Q in order to reach our 14.4mm estimate, an eminently achievable result in light of September’s performance, in our view. The confluence of key high volume launches, easing lending attitude and pent-up demand should help ensure that SAAR closes out the year strong.
  • Itaallased ei ole huvitatud autode vahetamisest ökonoomsemate vastu, vaid astutakse oluliselt radikaalsemaid samme, eelistades hoopistükkis jalgrattaid. Via Telegraph

    For the first time since the end of the Second World War the number of bicycles sold in Italy has overtaken the number of cars. // Families are buying bikes, ditching their second cars and signing up to car pool schemes – a major shift for a nation which has one of the highest car ownership rates in the world, with around 60 cars for every 100 people.
  • Hispaania teenindussektoris üsna kole aktiivsuse vähenemine kui PMI langes augusti 44,0 punkti tasemelt 40,2 punkti peale (oodati 42,0).
  • Saksamaa teenindussektori PMI 49,7 vs oodatud 50,6 (augustis 50,6)
    Prantsusmaa 45,0 vs oodatud 46,1 (augustis 46,1)
    Itaalia 44,5 vs oodatud 44,0 (augustis 44,0)
  • Eurotsooni teenindussektori PMI (kollane joon) tuli 46,1, mis oli oodatust (46,0) pisut parem (augustis 47,2). Töötleva tööstuse ja teenindusektori näitajaid kombineeriv PMI (valge joon) oli samuti prognoositust mõnevõrra parem (45,9). Joonisele on lisatud ka töötleva tööstuse PMI (oranž).
  • "Don't fight the Fed!" Nõnda tunnistaks ka Gordon Gekko.

    "“It is probably not a coincidence that the sustained recovery in U.S. equity prices began in March 2009, shortly after the FOMC’s decision to greatly expand securities purchases,” Bernanke said at Jackson Hole. “This effect is potentially important because stock values affect both consumption and investment decisions.”
    ...
    Bernanke, setting the stage for a third round of quantitative easing in an Aug. 31 speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, said the strategy works in part by boosting the prices of assets such as equities. In a speech yesterday in Indianapolis he said higher stock and home prices would provide further impetus to spending by businesses and households."

    Olin selle tõsiasja tähelepanuta jätnud. Täheldades kui tõsiselt suured majad ülaltoodud väidet võtavad, ei tähtsusta ma enam oodatavat korrektsiooni, vaid olen märkimisväärselt optimistlikum, vähemasti USA valimiste lõpuni.

    Veelkord: "Don't f... the Fed!"

  • Suurbritannia teenindussektor sarnaselt töötlevale tööstusele septembris pisut nõrgem võrreldes augustiga

    UK PMI SERVICES (SEP) IN AT 52.2 VERSUS 53.0 EXPECTED AND 53.7 PRIOR.
  • Eurotsooni jaemüük kahanes augustis mulluse baasil -1,3%, mis oli oodatud -1,9%st vähem. Juuli näitaja revideeriti -1,7% pealt -1,4%le.
  • Eile lõppes iga-aastane Value Investing konverents, kus tööstuse suurnimed oma pikkadest ja lühikestest ideedest räägivad. Mõned käisid eile juba börsipäeva foorumist läbi, kuid Briefing pakub väga head kokkuvõtlikku nimekirja:

    Monday, October 1

    Guy Gottfried, Rational Investment Group- Positive on CLK and CAM (Both trade on Toronto exchange)
    Kian Ghazi, Hawkshaw Capital Mgmt- Reiterates positive on LAYN which has been a top holding for his firm.
    Mike McGuire, Marcato Capital Mgmt- Positive on real estate and homebuilders. Positive mention of ALEX, GY, and BRP.
    Zack Buckley, Buckley Capital Partners- Favorite play was to short SPLK; not a fan of the web traffic monitors business model.
    Barry Rosenstein, JANA Partners- Pushing for a split of AGU's fertilizer and retail units. Believes needs to reduce excess overhead and costs.
    Whitney Tilson, T2 Partners- Reiterates he likes NFLX. also positive on BRK.A and HHC.
    John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors- Spoke about macro level; though Europe is a disaster, negative on Japan, negative on China; says deficit biggest issue for U.S.; he did like MON.
    Bill Ackman, Pershing Square- Was positive on GGP; unleashed an attack on BAM who he has been at odds with for the past few months. In his August newsletter he had said he had tremendous respect for mgmt so yesterday's speech was a more aggressive tone. Mr. Ackmnan wants a sale of GGP, BAM has no interest in selling. BAM believes selling now would undervalue GGP. Remained positive on JCP but says it will take time. Long PG but is skeptical of CEO.

    Tuesday, October 2

    Lloyd Khaner, Khaner Capital- Was positive on JMBA and SBUX
    Alex Roepers, Atlantic Investment Mgmt- Was positive on ENR, ROC, and JOY.
    David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital- Declined to comment on HLF (and APOL); Reiterated short in GMCR; Was positive on GM which he already held a position; Reiterated positive stance on HMOs mentioning CI specifically; Was negative on CMG as he thought the stock was pricey and concerned over potential for increased competition from Taco Bell. Did not go as far as supporting Taco Bell's parent YUM as he thought there were issues elsewhere in the co.
    Bob Robotti, Robotti & Co Advisors- Was positive on fracking. Main investment idea was Toronto-based CFW.TO.
    Glenn Tongue, T2 Partners- (Still to present); Recently split with Tilson; will be launching Deerhaven Capital Mgmt
    Jeffrey Ubben, ValueAct Capital- Activist investor- (Still to present) Recent positions according to Insider Monkey include: MSI, ADBE, VRX, BCR, MCO
  • Frakfurti börsi iganädalane sentimendi küsitlus paljastas üsna huvitava seiga Saksa investorite meeleolus. Nüüd kui QE-ga seotud eufooria näib turgudel tegelikult olevat raugenud, on pullide osakaal viimase nädalaga ühtäkki korralikult tõusnud. See aga näib pigem olevat seotud derivatiivide tehnilise küljega.

    We doubt that domestic German investors have suddenly got ‘QE religion’: one has to look further than central bank boardrooms to find the reason for this abrupt about-face. One source of buyers was easily predictable from the outcome of last week’s sentiment, where a large pessimistic shift was recorded. These were the so-called ‘triple-witching bears’ – investors who found themselves underweight as a result of being exercised on call-options they had written earlier. As the option expiry took place near the market high in the DAX index, these investors became bearish almost by default. They were looking for a pullback, but clearly they would be satisfied with a relatively modest decline. Last week’s dip towards 7200 appears to have been sufficient. For a second group of longer-standing DAX bears, the quarter’s end seems to have been the end of the road for their scepticism too. Window-dressing therefore can explain some of the shift.
  • Kreeka valitsus prognoosis hiljuti oma 2013.a eelarve raames majanduse -3,8%list langust, mis aga osade arvates jääb ikkagi liiga optimistlikus. Üks sellistest arvajatest on ka troika liige IMF, kes ise prognoosib SKP languseks tuleval aastal -4,5% ja seega peaks tähendama riigi jaoks täiendavate kärbete vajadust, kui IMF enda prognoosi juurde kindlaks jääb. Komistasin ühest uuringust pärit joonise otsa, kus on näha, millised Euroopa riigid on oma eelarve prognoosimisega kõige optimistlikumad olnud perioodil 1999-2008.

  • September ADP Employment Change 162K vs 133K Briefing.com Consensus
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RECN +4.6%, FIRE +2.3%, HBI +1.8%, (ticking higher), FDO +1.5%.

    M&A related: BBY +3.9% (Best Buy founder Richard Schulze and four private equity firms are preparing a possible $11 bln buyout of BBY, according to reports), PCS +3.2% and LEAP +2.6% (continued M&A speculation; Bloomberg discusses that the possible MetroPcs/T Mobile merger may limit Sprint's options for takeover, according to reports), SVU +0.4% (attributed to potential PE interest in SVU business segments).

    A few financial related names showing strength: CS +1.7%, NBG +1.6%, DB +1.4%, HBC +0.9%.

    Other news: SRPT +125.8% (announces eteplirsen meets primary endpoint of increased novel dystrophin and achieves significant clinical benefit on 6-minute walk test after 48 weeks of treatment in phase iib study in duchenne muscular dystrophy), ITMN +9.6% (announced that Health Canada approved Esbriet as first treatment for fatal lung disease), INVE +5.4% (still checking), VVUS +2% (Vivus wins dismissal of federal securities class action lawsuit), MLNX +2% (still checking), AAPL +0.6% (has begun production on its new mini iPad; could unveil it on October 10th, according to reports).

    Analyst comments: SSYS +2.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Craig-Hallum), NFLX +2% (Hearing Citigroup suggesting customer survey shows improvements in satisfaction), WPRT +1.5% (initiated with a Buy at UBS), NSC +0.7% and CSX +0.5% (upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Bernstein)
  • Gapping down:
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/SSS: XRTX -13.8%, SPN -4%, MON -3.8%, WAG -2.5%.

    M&A related: NTAP -0.5% (ORCL CEO Ellison on CNBC says NTAP is a great co but ORCL is not focused on any large acquisitions now; also weakness could be attributed to XRTX results).

    Other news: ATRS -7.5% (announces proposed public offering of common stock), RIGL -5.1% (announces proposed public offering of common stock), ARI -2.9% (announces public offering of 7 mln shares of common stock), NYMT -2.3% (commenced an underwritten registered public offering of 13,500,000 shares of common stock), BGS -1.9% (prices public offering of 3,629,165 shares of common stock at $30.25 per share), SDRL -1.1% (explores establishing new management service function and alternative location for more aggressive growth; replaces CEO Alf Thorkildsen with Fredrik Halvorsen as CEO).

    Analyst comments: POT -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Lazard), AMRN -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush), ANN -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey), SNN -0.9% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley), CIG -0.6% (Cemig downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays).
  • Paluks üks hea tehniline analüüs tänase SRPT päevagraafiku kohta. Open, low, high, close. Aitäh!
  • SRPT müüdi avanemisel ilusti maha nagu näha oli...standard
  • Tänase päeva staar SRPT on nüüd jõudnud rallida juba 170% ja Lazardi analüütikute sõnul võib aktsia väärt olla koguni $ 83-$ 139.
    Hetkel kaupleb aktsia $ 40 kandis.

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