Mida toob 2013. aasta?
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Lähenev detsember tähenda seda, et strateegid ja analüütikud on hakanud aktiivselt oma tuleva aasta prognoose avaldama. Selle teema loomine saigi loodud motivatsioonist koguda ühte kohta teiste ja enda mõtteid, mida võiks järgmine aasta tuua nii majanduslikult kui poliitiliselt, nii globaalselt kui kui konkreetselt kodumaal.
Alustaks Nordeaga, kes on küll toonud oma 2013.a globaalse SKP kasvuootust veidi allapoole, ent jääb pikemas perspektiivis siiski optimistlikuks. Nende research on kättesaadav siit.
During a period of darkness it is important to be able to see just tiny beams of sunshine. And actually, there are bright spots in the global economy, which is still advancing driven by the US and China. The Euro zone, on the other hand, has slid back into recession on the back of a deep confidence crisis and fiscal tightening.
However, monetary policy will continue to support the European economy for a long time to come as core inflation stays low and unemployment remains high. We have marginally revised down our forecast for global growth this year to 3% (from 3.1% in September). We have also revised down our forecast for 2013 to 3.3% (from 3.5% in September), while the forecast for 2014 has been increased to 4.0% ( from 3.8% in September).
Even though we continue to expect progress on the economic side, the political agenda continues to take center stage and could upset things with the ‘fiscal cliff’ discussions in the US, Sino-Japanese tensions over a small island group and of course the European debt crisis. -
Pakuks, et saabuv aasta toob täiendavad 3000+ sissekannet Kalev Jaigi teemasse. Muu on vähemoluline.
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Pessimist.
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Danske - The Tide is Turning
- We expect the global economy to recover in 2013 as policy uncertainty fades and global policy stimulus has become stronger.
- We forecast global GDP to rise 3.8% in 2013 after 3.3% in 2012. Our forecasts for next year are slightly above consensus - particularly in China. In 2014, we look for global growth to rise further to 4.0%.
- Emerging markets are expected to recover from a two-year slump, which will be an important impetus for global demand.
- Fiscal policy, tight credit in the euro area and low wage growth in advanced economies should keep the global recovery moderate.
- The main uncertainty still relates to policy. A failure of US politicians to avoid a fiscal cliff or renewed escalation of the euro crisis are the primary risk factors. -
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Nordea: The Five “Black Snakes” 2013
- Early exit: Fed called a bluff
- EMU: Germany to take the heat
- China: for the hard fall
- Japan: at the tipping point
- Global: impotence prevails
