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Börsipäev 7. juuli

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  • Eelmise nädala muutused:


    Selle nädala olulisemad sündmused (Bloombergi konsensus):

    Esmaspäev 7. juuli
    Saksamaa mai tööstustoodang: muutumatu pärast 0,2% MoM tõusu aprillis (YoY 3,6%)
    Hispaania mai tööstustoodang: aasta baasil tempo aeglustumine 4,3% pealt 3,7%ni

    Teisipäev 8. juuli
    Saksamaa mai kaubandusbilanss: eksport MoM -0,4%, import MoM 0,5%
    Suurbritannia mai tööstustoodang: 0,3% kasv pärast 0,4% MoM tõusu aprillis (YoY 3,2%)
    USA väikeettevõtete juuni kindlustunde indeks: paranemine 0,4 punkti 97,0 punktini (kõrgeim tase alates 2007.a sügis).
    Alcoa teise kvartali majandustulemused

    Kolmapäev 9. juuli
    Hiina juuni inflatsioon: aasta baasil 2,4% (aprillis 2,5%)
    USA Föderaalreservi juuni istungi protokoll

    Neljapäev 10. juuli
    Hiina juuni kaubandusbilanss: eksport YoY 10,2% (mais 7,0%), import 5,6% (mais -1,6%)
    Jaapani maikuu masinate tellimused: 0,7% MoM paranemine pärast -9,1% langust aprillis
    Prantsusmaa juuni tarbijahinnaindeks: aasta baasil 0,7%
    Prantsusmaa mai tööstustoodang: languse aeglustumine YoY -2,0% pealt -1,0% peale
    Suurbritannia keskpanga istung: intressimäär püsib 0,5% peal
    USA möödunud nädala töötu abiraha taotlused: püsib muutumatuna 315 tuhande peal

    Reede 11. juuli
    Saksamaa juuni lõplik inflatsioon: aasta baasil 1,0%
    Hispaania juuni lõplik inflatsioon: aasta baasil 0,1%
    Wells Fargo majandustulemused

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,1% madalamal, Euroopa aktsiaturud on alustamas väikese plussiga.
  • Sellel nädalal Alcoa numbritega algava tulemuste hooaja üheks eripäraks saab olema viimaste aastate üks väiksemaid kasvuootuste kärpimisi, kui teise kvatali jooksul langetati S&P 500 firmade EPSI YoY ootust vaid 1.7 protsendipunkti võrra ca 5% peale. Paljude ettevõtete puhul on neid isegi tõstma hakatud. Alloleval joonisel toodud Alcoa Q2 EPS on üheks näiteks, samas on näha ka seda kui tugevalt on optimistlikumat väljavaadet aktsiahinda sisse juba arvestatud, mis tähendab, et mininaalne tulemus, millega investorid rahule võiksid jääda on in-line numbrid.
  • HSBC tunneb ennast arenevate turgude suhtes julgemalt ning tõstab turgude soovituse neutraalse pealt "overweight" tasemele. Arenenud turgude soovitus langetatakse seevastu neutraalse pealt "underweight" peale.

    * See little on horizon that could trigger bear market
    * Don’t share worry of many about “eerily quiet” markets as low volatility and tight credit spreads “are typical of mature phase of a bull market”
    * Global economic growth continues “sluggishly”, systemic risks generally under control, oil prices would need to rise much more to be a threat
    * Keeps U.S. stocks underweight, euro zone and pan-Europe at overweight, Japan kept underweight
    * U.K. to underweight vs neutral
    * Switzerland to neutral vs overweight
    * Russia to neutral vs underweight
    * Sweden to neutral vs underweight
    * Australia to neutral from overweight
    * Korea to underweight from neutral
    * Taiwan to neutral from overweight
    * Hong Kong to underweight from neutral
    * India to neutral from underweight
    * Sector changes:Health care to underweight from neutral
  • Saksamaa tööstustoodang osutus mais märksa nõrgemaks kui oodati. Tööpäevadega ja hooajaliselt korrigeeritud toodang langes MoM -1,8% (prog 0,0%) ja lisaks revideeriti madalamaks ka aprillis muutust (0,2% pealt -0,3% peale). Aasta baasil püsis kasv 1,3% peal (oodati 3,6%).

  • Renault tõstab veidi Euroopa autoturu selle aasta kasvutootust

    Renault Lifts 2014 Europe Market Forecast as Deliveries Rise
    • First-half deliveries grew to 1.37m vehicles from 1.3m a year earlier, co. said in an e-mailed statement.
    • European 1H deliveries grew 18%, fueled by success of Clio, Captur, Duster and Sandero models
    • 1H deliveries outside Europe fell 8.9%
    • Co. lifts FY European market forecast to growth of 3-4% vs. growth of 2-3% earlier
    • Co. sees French car market growing 1% in 2014
    • Co. confirms FY target of increased market share in Europe and higher auto sales globally.
  • Analüütikute värskemad kommentaarid:

    Swedbank Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT SEK185 to 180 (Close 176,9)
    • Nordic banks have outperformed the sector by 7% YTD. DNB is the first to report Q2 results on 10 July. We believe there will be two key themes around Q2 results: firstly, the margin debate in Sweden following the Riksbank rate cut and mortgage rate cuts. The second theme will be how the evolving regulatory debate is affecting banks' capital planning. DNB is our top pick in the Nordics. Within Sweden we prefer the corporate banks (SEB and Nordea) to the detail banks (Swedbank and SHB). For Q2 results we like DNB and SEB into numbers.
    Deutsche Boerse Cut From Neutral to Underperform at Credit Suisse; PT 59 to 51 (Close 56,71)
    BME Rated New Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT Eu35.5 (Close 35,24)
    Weir Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Citi
    Blinkx Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman; PT 130 to 40 (Close 33,75)
    Enagas Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 18,5 to 24,5 (Close 23,13)
    Ctt Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 8,25 (Close 6,86)
    Sky Deutschland Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Nomura; Pt 8,5 to 7,0 (Close 6,76)
    Vallourec Raised to Buy vs Underperform at BofAML
    Deutsche Bank 2014 Profit Outlook Cut at UBS; Faces S/T Pressure
    • Deutsche Bank stock faces short-term pressure from lower RoTE, challenging FICC outlook, litigation risk, UBS says in note today, cuts 2014 adj. net est. 3%.
    • Needs to show more progress on cost cuts, deleveraging, litigation for stock to re-rate
    • Says recent EU8.5b capital increase diluted EPS by 26%
    • CET1 ratio may quickly drop below 11%
    • Reaching 12% after tax ROE target may be at struggle
    • N. America market share expansion key to better profitability
    • New 3.5% T1 leverage ratio target “within reach”
    • Sees 2014 EPS EU1.93, 2015 EU3.33, 2016 EU4.15
    Uralkali Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at Credit Suisse; PT USD 19 to 22 (Close 23,05)
    Acron Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT RUB1290 to 1450 (Close 1215,7)
    • We expect concerns over a Chinese slowdown (for metals) and Indian economic weakness (for fertilizers) to continue weighing on sector performance. However, we highlight a number of company-specific stories that we think are attractive despite the external risks.
    • Upgrading Acron on the back of its peer-leading dividend yield and attractive valuations.
    • Our preferred fertilizer exposure remains PhosAgro (Outperform, new TP US$14.2/GDR from US$13.1) as, despite its 25% share price appreciation y-t-d, we continue to believe that within the global fertilizers sector it is hard to find an asset of similar quality priced equally attractively (2015E EV/EBITDA 5.5x, 7% free cash flow and 5% dividend yield).
    ICAP Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 386p (Close 375)
  • Hispaania tööstustoodangu kasv aeglustus mais 4,1% pealt 2,5% peale, mõnevõrra rohkem kui oodatud aeglustumine 3,7%le


  • ING arvab kommentaaris, et Saksamaa tööstustoodangu kasvu aeglustumine ei tohiks olla suureks murekohaks, kuna üldine tase on jätkuvalt tugev ning lisaks räägivad tootjate seisu kasuks mahukad tellimusteraamatud ja madalad varud. Lihtsalt hetkel ei viita miski aktiivsuse tõusule.

    Today's industrial production data adds evidence that the German industry is currently treading water.
    To be clear, there is no reason to worry. It is more a question of level and change. The overall level of industrial activity is still strong and the safety net for the German industry, richly filled order books and low inventories, is still boding well for the coming months. However, the stimulus for a further acceleration is currently missing.

  • Huvitav on näha, et kuigi USA aktsiaturud teevad uusi tippe, siis kodumaistest aktsiapõhistest mutual fondidest on raha viimased 10 nädalat välja voolanud fixed income fondidesse ja rahvusvahelistesse aktsiafondidesse.

  • Barclays tõmbab Saksamaa teise kvartali SKP kasvuootust oluliselt madalamaks pärast aprilli ja mai oodatust pehmemaid tööstustoodangu numbreid

    Barclays revised Germany's Q2 GDP estimate to 0.1% q/q from 0.4%
  • Suuremad Stoxx 600 indeksi liikujad keskpäeva seisuga. Nõrga Saksa makro tõttu kauplevad miinuspoolel eelkõige tööstusettevõtted, tugevamad on kommunaalteenuste pakkujad ning autotootjad. USA indeksite futuurid hoiavad jätkuvalt hommikust -0,1% langust.

  • stocker
    Montana Railway Disrupted as Boeing Inspects 737 Hulls in River
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-06/boeing-inspects-737-hulls-in-river-as-montana-railway-reopens.html
    Kes seal kindlustajaks on?


    Ei tea, 1 kere on küll keskelt pooleks.

  • Tubli opex. 5 punni selle eest.
    Ignorance is bliss
  • Võimas maavärin Mehhikos
    MAGNITUDE 7.1 QUAKE STRIKES WEST OF TAPACHULA, MEXICO: USGS

  • Raudteefirma MRL kindlustajat pea võimatu vist välja selgitada, rong oli sams BNSFi (BerkshireH tütar) oma, kui oleks Boeingu kindlustuse korvata siis: "A pool of four insurers stands behind Global Aerospace, the London-based lead underwriter of Boeing's insurance program. Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N), has a 27.875 percent share of the pool, second only to German reinsurer Munich Re Group AG (MUVGn.DE), which has 49.445 percent. Tokio Marine and Mitsui Sumitomo contribute the remainder." Boeing toodab 42 tk/k 737-id, u. 4 toorik-kere kaotus räme kallis häving vast polegi.
  • Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:

    GTAT (GT Advanced Technologies Inc. ) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
    JMI (AVELIN Mortgage Investment Corp) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
    NSIT (Insight Enterprises Inc.) downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James
    TDW (Tidewater Inc.) downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line Inc) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
    BTU (Peabody Energy Corp) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
    HOLX (Hologic Inc.) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research
    KING (King Digital Entertainment plc) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
    MOBL (MobileIron, Inc) initiated with a Buy at Goldman among others)
    SONS (Sonus Networks, Inc) initiated with an Outperform at Pacific Crest
    BXE (Bellatrix Exploration Ltd) positive comments from Northland
    AMAT ( Applied Materials, Inc) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
    SEAS (SeaWorld Entertainment, Inc. ) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at BMO Capital Mkts
    CENX (Century Aluminum Co) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
    SCCO (Southern Copper Corp.) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
    NAO (Nordic American Offshore) initiated with a Outperform at Credit Suisse
    VC (Visteon Corporation ) resumed with a Overweight at JP Morgan
    WSM (Williams-Sonoma Inc. ) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill



  • stocker
    Montana Railway Disrupted as Boeing Inspects 737 Hulls in River
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-06/boeing-inspects-737-hulls-in-river-as-montana-railway-reopens.html
    Kes seal kindlustajaks on?


    Kehitab õlgu. See on veel kaudsem ja rohkem poogen kui AMZN telefoniga AAPL-i kill.
  • ymeramees
    stocker
    Montana Railway Disrupted as Boeing Inspects 737 Hulls in River
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-06/boeing-inspects-737-hulls-in-river-as-montana-railway-reopens.html
    Kes seal kindlustajaks on?


    Kehitab õlgu. See on veel kaudsem ja rohkem poogen kui AMZN telefoniga AAPL-i kill.


    OK, siis tuleb reageerida kohe, mitte 100 a. hiljem. Kehitab õlgu.

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