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Börsipäev 9. juuli

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  • Müüjad tajusid eile oma võimalust ning kasutasid nõrkust ära, et pullid jõulisemalt nurka suruda. USA indeksid mõnevõrra taastusid päeva teises pooles, kuid ei saa eitada, et suhu jäi siiski üsna mõru maik. Sellised müügipäevad tunduvad pika positsiooni omanikele valusad, eriti neile, kellele meeldivad momentumaktsiad, kuid S&P 500 indeks on kahe päevaga tipust alla tulnud kõigest 1.1% ning iga selline langus on turu üldise tervise seisukohast vaid teretulnud. S&P 500 sulgus eile -0,7%, Stoxx 600 kaotas -1,4% (kolme päevaga langust kogunenud -2,6%).

    Närvilisust turgudel tõstab järgmisel nädalal aktiivsemaks muutuv ettevõtete majandustulemuste hooaeg, mille eel on õhus küsimus, kui tugev saab tänavu majanduskasv arenenud riikides ikkagi olema. Lisaks sellele, et Saksamaa majanduse jahtumine on õhus pärast oodatust nõrgema aprilli ja mai tööstustoodangu näitajate avaldamist, teatas ka Suurbritannia statistikaamet ootamatult maikuu tööstustoodangu -0,7% MoM langusest (aasta baasil +2,3%), samas kui analüütikud prognoosisid 0,3% kasvu (aasta baasil 3,2%). Kukkumist vedas töötlev tööstus, kus toodang kahanes aprilliga võrreldes -1,3% (suurim langus viimase 16 kuu jooksul). PMI küsitlus annab lootust näha juunis aktiivsuse taastumist.

    Võimalik, et pärast USA turgude sulgumist oma teise kvartali majandusnäitajad avaldanud Alcoa aitas suuremat paanikat siiski leevendada. Ehkki alumiiniumitootja müügitulu püsis mullusega võrreldes sisuliselt muutumatuna 5,84 miljardi dollari peal, siis restruktureerimiskulude vähenedes ja tänu varasematele kulude kärpimistele jõuti 216 miljoni dollariga kasumisse, mis tegi aktsia kohta 18 senti. Analüütikud ootasid vastavateks numbriteks 5,65 mld USD ja 12 senti. Ettevõtte kinnitas varasemat prognoosi, mille kohaselt nähakse globaalselt alumiiniumi nõudluse kasvu tänavu 7%.

    Tänane uudiste kalender jääb üsna õhukeseks ning suuremat huvi võiks pakkuda vaid FOMC eelmise istungi protokoll.

    10.00 Hispaania kinnisvaratehingud (mai)
    21.00 FOMC juuni istungi protokoll

    Euroopa aktsiaturud on avanemas 0,2% kõrgemal, USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel ilma muutuseta.
  • Hiina THI aeglustus juunis oodatust rohkem 2,3% peale, samas näitas tootjahinnaindeks väikseimat langust viimase kaheksa kuu jooksul.

  • Päikesepaneelide tootja, First Solar, aktsia müüdi eile -4,9% madalamale (@ $64,39), kuna väidetavalt kaalub Hiina valitsus 2014. aasta päikesepaneelide paigaldamise eesmärgi (14 gigavatti) vähendamist finantseerimisprobleemide tõttu.

  • mitmed analüüsimajad on juba käinud pihta saanud USA lennufirmasid kaitsmas, täna teeb seda Deutsche, kes näeb pikaajalise investori jaoks võimalust.

    Both Air France-KLM and Lufthansa highlighted an oversupplied transatlantic market as one of the (many) reasons for why they lowered their 2014 and 2015 earnings forecasts by 10% - 25%. Delta also indicated that international yields were lower than expected in June “driven by industry-wide capacity increases”. However, unlike its European counterparts, Delta reiterated its 14% - 16% operating margin guidance for what is likely to be a record June quarter. Furthermore, US airlines are not planning to grow transatlantic capacity more than 5% for the remainder of the year whereas European airlines are planning to grow transatlantic supply by 11% - 12% for 2H 2014.

    With the stocks having gone from being overbought to the cusp of being oversold in less than a month (based on changes to their Relative Strength Index), we see an emerging opportunity for long-term investors to initiate/add to positions in names that we think are the biggest beneficiaries of consolidation/restructuring: AAL, UAL, LUV & DAL
  • Assa Abloy Raised to Hold vs Sell at DNB
    IAG Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at HSBC; PT 480 to 400 (Close 335,9)
    CCI Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT TRY51,3 to 62,5 (Close 53,45)
    • CCI has lagged its domestic peers YTD, with its shares now showing the most upside potential to the high end of consensus' valuation range. One-off negatives will likely affect 2Q volumes, but we believe longterm execution and growth opportunities remain strong.
    Ffp Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at HSBC; PT 40 to 64 (Close 47,35)
    Tsb Banking Group Rated New Underperform at Credit Suisse, PT Set at 250p) (Close 283,25)
    Autoliv Cut to Hold From Buy at Nordea; PT Sek785 (Close 729,5)
    BP Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 540 to 550 (Close 510,7)
    Shell Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 2400 to 2850 (Close 2391)
    ENI Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 19 to 22 (Close 19,59)
    • We reaffirm our positive sector view. We argue that the sector is entering a period where optionality to the upside in crude and downside on capex can see perceptions of FCF generation evolve to assume a more rapid recovery to a higher level than presently forecast. As belief that FCF cover of dividend can reach >1x strengthens, we think the Majors’ current 4.8% 2015e DY will look increasingly attractive relative to history, equity markets and the yield curve. We advocate positioning in names likely to benefit from a repricing of yield and for those set to enjoy near-term project-driven momentum.
    • We seek to play re-pricing of yield through selected Majors. At Shell relative valuation, restructuring potential, capex optionality, divestment upside and the removal of dilutive scrip dividend see us target a 4.0% 2015e yield. We reaffirm our positive view on Total. Playing the top-down theme we upgrade Eni targeting a narrowing of yield to 5.0%.
    Azimut Raised to Buy vs Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 25,1 (Close 19,0)
    Jeronimo Martins PT Cut to EU14.8 vs EU16 at Raymond James, Kept at outperform (Close 11,48)
    Saras Raised to Hold vs Sell at SocGen
    Ocado Reinstated at Buy at BofAML; PT 540p (Close 390,7)
    Total Cut to Hold vs Buy at SocGen
    Ophir Energy Rated New Buy at Citi; PT 280p (Close 212,1)
    Peugeot Resumed at Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT Eu9.5 (Close 10,79)
    BP Raised to Equalweight vs Underweight at Barclays
    Ericsson Removed From European Analyst Focus List at JPMorgan
    Strabag Cut to Sell vs Neutral at Goldman; PT 21 to 24 (Close 22,8)
    HeidelbergCement Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman; PT 63,5 to 70 (Close 62,5)
    Eiffage Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman; PT 56 to 62 (Close 48,25)
    Monitise Removed From Conviction Buy at Goldman; Still Buy; PT 105 to 65 (Close 45,0)
    Connect Group Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 221 to 183 (Close 171)
    BNP Paribas Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 63 to 56 (Close 48,56)
    Thales Raised to Overweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 52 to 54 (Close 42,92)
    Unilever Cut to Reduce vs Neutral at Nomura: PT 30,9 to 29,7 (Close 31,9)
    Rentokil Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT 120 to 141 (Close 112,6)
    • Rentokil is changing. Cash conversion is rising, peripheral assets have been sold, Pest Control is becoming a bigger, and clearer, part of the portfolio and M&A should enhance that process. Pest Control is, in our view, a sustainable, high return industry where Rentokil is the global leader in commercial and number 3 (behind the two US giants, Orkin and Ecolab) in residential. It remains a fragmented industry providing Rentokil on-going opportunities to consolidate the market and grow pest as a proportion of its business.
    Deutsche Bank Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT stays at 33 (Close 25,6)
    Storebrand Cut to Hold vs Buy at SEB
    Air France-KLM Upgraded; Stay Positive on EasyJet, Ryanair: UBS
    •Air France-KLM share reaction overdone, raised to neutral from sell; PT cut to EU8.9 (~3% upside) from EU9.7, UBS says in note.
    • Lufthansa investor day tomorrow could be positive catalyst
    • IAG remains preferred flag carrier, reiterated buy
    • See improving industry trend on European short-haul capacity in 4Q
    • EasyJet likely to raise guidance at 3Q results on July 24
    • EasyJet, Ryanair medium-term outlook, valuation look favorable
  • Hispaania kinnisvaratehingute arv kasvas mais aasta baasil 5,4%, sisuliselt samas tempos nagu aprillis.
  • Marc Faber ootab aktsiaturul väikest, 30%, korrektsiooni ning arvab, et mull võib olla juba lõhkemas. Link
  • Eile avaldatud kaks uuringut näitasid mõlemad USA tööturgu positiivsemas valguses. Tööjõu büroo avaldatud JOLTS küsitluse kohaselt oli mais 4,635 miljonit vaba töökohta, mis on kõrgeim tase alates eelmisest tipust.


    Väikeettevõtete kindlustunde küsitluse raames (NFIB) vastas 12%, et kavatsevad tulevikus töötajaid juurde palgata, mis on kõrgeim tase pärast kriisi.
  • Lennufirmad saavad täna vahelduseks tunda jälle investorite armastust nii Euroopas kui ka USA eelturul.

    Stoxx 600 suuremad liikujad
  • Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:

    Alcoa (AA) target raised to $18.50 from $15 at JP Morgan; Overweight
    American Express (AXP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim
    Biogen Idec (BIIB) target raised to $375 at RBC Capital Mkts
    Broadcom (BRCM) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer
    Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) target raised to $560 at Wunderlich
    Coach (COH) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Buckingham Research
    F5 Networks (FFIV) initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson
    Schlumberger (SLB) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC Securities; tgt raised to $135 from $105
    Cummins (CMI) removed from Conviction Buy list at Goldman
    Garmin (GRMN) downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at Pacific Crest
    Intl Paper (IP) downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts
    McGraw-Hill Financial (MHFI) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
    Moody's (MCO) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
    CBS (CBS) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt $68
    Discovery (DISCA) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays; tgt $87
    KLA-Tencor (KLAC) assumed with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
    Lam Research (LRCX) assumed with a Overweight at Piper Jaffray
    Walt Disney (DIS) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt $85

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