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Börsipäev 15. juuli

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Uudiste osas üsna vaikseks kujunenud esmaspäev andis turgudul võimaluse taastuda eelmise nädala langusest, kui tuge pakkusid mitmed ülevõtmised ning Citigroupi teise kvartali majandustulemused. S&P 500 lõpetas külgsuunas triivides päeva 0,5% plussiga, Stoxx 600 indeks kosus 0,9%.

    Aasias on turud öösel jätkanud teist päeva põrget. Jaapanis otsustas keskpank jätkata senise rahapoliitilise kursi juures, suurendades rahabaasi aastas 60-70 triljoni jeeni võrra. Keskpanga sõnul jätkab majandus mõõdukat taastumist, kärpides samas selle aasta SKP kasvu 0,1pp võrra 1,0% peale. Inflatsiooni osas püsisid prognoosid muutumatuna, kui tänavu peaks hinnatõus ulatuma 1,3%ni ja kiirenema tuleval aastal 1,9%ni. Mitmed analüüsimajad jäävad aga skeptiliseks, et keskpank suudab saavutada 2% inflatsiooni ning seetõttu oodatakse sügisel täiendavat lõdvendamist.

    Hiinas aga näivad rahakraanid olevat rohkem valla, et turgutada majandust. Uusi laenusid väljastati juunis 1,08 triljoni jüaani võrra, rohkem kui oodatud 0,955 triljonit ning 0,87 triljonit mais. M2 rahabaasi kasv kiirenes 13,4% pealt 14,7% peale (enim alates augustist) ning ka välisinvesteeringud näitasid aasta baasil 0,2% kasvu, kui alles mais oli langus -6,7% ning analüütikud ootasid sarnase trendi jätkumist ka juunis. Homme avaldatakse Hiina teise kvartali SKP, mis peaks näitama mullusega võrreldes 7,4% kasvu.

    Tänase päeva fookus langeb Janet Yelleni esinemisele USA Senati ees, kust turuosalised võivad saada värskemat infot tema seisukohtadest tööturu ja majanduse teemal. Ühendriikide juuni jaemüük näitab, kui hea tervise juures on tarbija ning samuti jätkub teise kvartali majandustulemuste avaldamine. Teiste seas raporteerivad Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, Intel, Yahoo!.

    09.00 Soome SKP indikaator (mai)
    11.00 Itaalia inflatsioon (juuni lõplik)
    11.30 Suurbritannia inflatsioon (juuni)
    12.00 Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute sentimendi indeksid (juuli)
    15.30 NY FEDi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (juuli)
    15.30 USA jaemüük (juuni)
    17.00 USA ettevõtete varud (mai)
    17.00 Janet Yelleni poolaasta aruanne Senati ees

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,1% kõrgemal. Euroopa börsid on avanemas ilma olulise muutuseta.
  • H&Mi juuni müük oodatust parem seda vaatamata negatiivsele kalendri efektile, mis röövis kasvust 3-4 protsendipunkti

    H&M TOTAL JUNE SALES RISE 12% VS SME DIREKT EST. +9.4%
  • Soome SKP indikaator viitas mais sisemajanduse kogutoodangu -0,1% langusele võrreldes mullu sama ajaga, mis on üsna kiire tempo aeglustumine võrreldes aprilli 1,9% kasvuga.
  • Analüütikute kommentaarid Euroopa ettevõtete kohta:

    GDF Suez Raised From Underperform to Outperform at Raymond James
    Erste Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Exane
    • Erste Bank isn’t a growth stock and shouldn’t be priced as such, Exane says in note today; prefers Raiffeisen Bank International on valuation, dividend yield.
    • 2014 should mark end of Erste Banks large negative 1-time items
    • Notes 22% underperformance vs sector in past month
    • Says management credibility a bit dented after positive guidance of recent years repeatedly followed by profit warnings
    • Notes 26% drop in 2015 consensus ests YTD, 17% drop in 2016 consensus
    • Says Erste, RBI have similar profitability, at 11.8% and 11.3% of est. 2016 return on tangible equity respectively
    • Solvency also comparable
    • RBI valuation lower at 8.0x est. 2015 PE vs 8.7x
    • RBI dividends seen “far larger” through 2016 with yield at 5% vs Erste’s 1.4%
    Hunting Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman; PT 965 to 900 (Close 838)
    Cairn Energy Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman; PT 250 to 229 (Close 190,6)
    Peugeot Raised to Overweight, Added to European Analyst Focus List at JPMorgan; PT 10,75 to 14,0 (Close 11,1)
    • 1H results could mark start of Peugeot’s FCF recovery, delivering EU290m FCF, group net debt of EU630m vs. consensus EU1b, JPMorgan says in note
    • JPMorgan: Earnings should be driven by pricing power returning as it discontinues 7 non successful vehicles by FY16, rising European capacity utilization and strong cost savings
    • Autos margin should increase to 2.6% in FY16 vs consensus 1%
    Peugeot Named Top Sector Pick at Exane; PT to Eu14 From Eu13
    • 1H results on July 30 to trigger “substantial” upward revisions to EPS consensus; China operations undervalued, Europe profitability improving
    Providence Resources Resumed at Buy at Cantor; PT 503p (Close 1,6)
    Danone Raised to Overweight vs Equalweight, Added to Europe Best Ideas at Morgan Stanley; PT 55 to 63 (Close 54,7)
    • Evidence of significant management cultural shift gives us new confidence in Danone’s potential to improve operational leverage. We now forecast a return to best-in-class to p-line/EPS growth from 2015, with 20% TSR
    Provident Financial Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 1911 to 2210 (Close 2165)
    Ashtead Group Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 1,110p (Close 896,0)
    Intermediate Capital Group Raised From Neutral to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 497 to 210 (Close 377,9)
    African Barrick Gold Rated New Buy at UBS; PT 260p (Close 226,6)
    Fred Olsen Energy Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
    PGS Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
    Old Mutual Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
    Wacker Neuson Cut to Hold vs Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 15 to 17 (Close 17,17)
    Lufthansa PT Cut to EU17from EU20 at Raymond James; Kept at Outperform (Close 14,44)
    Wartsila Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Swedbank
    ECB Policy a Clear Positive for Italy Banks: Morgan Stanley
    • ECB monetary policy, new regulatory role key catalysts for Italian banks to improve balance sheets and returns, Morgan Stanley says.
    • Expects capital buffers to be able to absorb writedowns into AQR
    • Keeps preference (overweight) for Intesa (PT raised to EU2.9 from EU2.8), UniCredit (PT raised to EU8.1 from EU7.8)
    Pop. Milano upgraded to overweight vs underweight (PT raised to EU0.8 from EU0.5)
    Banco Popolare raised to equalweight vs underweight (PT cut to EU13 from EU15)
    UBI kept at equalweight (PT raised to EU7.3 from EU6.3)
    Mediobanca cut to underweight vs equalweight (PT cut to EU7.3 from EU7.7)
    Monte Paschi resumed at underweight (PT EU1.5)
    EU Asset Managers Under Pressure; Citi Raises Aberdeen to Buy
    Aberdeen Asset raised from hold; larger European asset managers preferred as pressure on margins rise, regulation increases and sector M&A continues, Citigroup says in note today.
    •Top picks are Aberdeen, Henderson, Schroders, Jupiter
    •Falling fee margins, rising regulatory costs putting pressure on profits
    • New, proposed regulations creating atmosphere of uncertainty
    • AUM growth increasingly important as management fee margins keep falling
    • Strong cash flows, declining profits will encourage M&A
    • Says most listed U.K. asset managers more likely to be acquirers than targets
    • Jupiter may be an exception
    • Prefer asset managers that are big on AUM, or have potential to be
    • Aberdeen, Henderson have potential for positive surprise
    • Worst of Aberdeen fund outflows probably over
    • Neutral on Ashmore, Gam
  • Itaalia juuni inflatsioon kinnitati 0,2% peal, madalaim alates 2009.a
  • Halb üllatus Inglise keskpanga jaoks....inflatsioon hüppas juunis 1,5% pealt 1,9% peale (oodati 1,6%) ja tuuminflatsioon 1,6% pealt 2,0% peale (oodati 1,7%). Suurima panuse tõusus andsid tubakas (+7,5%), riided ja jalatsid (+9,7%), reisiteenused (+3,8%)

    UK tuuminflatsioon YoY
  • Nõrk Saksamaa makro ja ilmselt ka langus turgudel on tõmmanud kohalike investorite ja analüütikute kindlustunnet madalamale juulis

    GERMAN ZEW JULY CURRENT CONDITIONS INDEX AT 61.8 (67.4 EXPECTED, 67.7 IN JUNE)
    GERMAN ZEW JULY INVESTOR EXPECTATIONS AT 27.1 (27.1 EXPECTED, 29.8 IN JUNE)

  • JPMorgan on tulemustega veidi futuure toetamas

    JPMorgan Chase prelim $1.46 vs $1.30 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $24.45 bln vs $23.67 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    JPMorgan Chase Q2 Corporate & Investment Bank revenue declines 9% y/y to $8.99 bln; JPM guided for a decline of approx 20% on June 11
  • Ameerika teiseks ja kolmandaks suurimad tubakatootjad ühinevad. Suureks uudiseks pole, sest jutud läbirääkimistest levisid juba kevadel

    REYNOLDS AMERICAN TO BUY LORILLARD IN DEAL VALUED AT $27.4B
  • Goldman samuti väljas oodatust paremate numbritega

    Goldman Sachs prelim $4.10 vs $3.06 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $9.13 bln vs $7.96 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Goldman Sachs: Net revenues in Investment Banking were $1.78 billion for the second quarter of 2014, 15% higher than the second quarter of 2013 and essentially unchanged compared with the first quarter of 2014' expectations were for a double digit decline y/y
  • JNJ tulemused oodatust paremad ja erinevalt pankadest on JNJ löömas EPSI prognoosi, mida on eelmise aasta lõpust küll marginaalselt, aga siiski tõstetud

    Johnson & Johnson prelim $1.66 vs $1.55 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $19.5 bln vs $18.96 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Co issues in-line guidance for FY14, raises adj. EPS to $5.85-5.92 from $5.80-5.90 vs. $5.90 Capital IQ Consensus.


  • USA juuni jaemüük prognoositust nõrgem, NY FEDi töötleva tööstuse aktiivsusindeks ületas ootusi

    June Retail Sales ex-auto +0.4% vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +0.4% from +0.1%
    June Retail Sales +0.2% vs +0.7% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +0.5% from +0.3%
    July Empire Manufacturing 25.6 vs 13.2 Briefing.com consensus; June 19.3
  • Mõned tänased otsused muudatused USAs.

    • Upgrades
    o Applied Materials (AMAT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley & Co.; tgt $25
    o Diamond Offshore (DO) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital Mkts
    o Kimberly-Clark (KMB) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
    o Kroger (KR) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at BMO Capital Mkts
    o Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
    o Noble Corp PLC (NE) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital Mkts
    o Progressive (PGR) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Evercore
    o Rowan Cos (RDC) upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital Mkts
    o Twitter (TWTR) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Macquarie
    • Downgrades
    o Campbell Soup (CPB) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $39 from $41
    o Kellogg (K) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $59 from $64
    o Time Warner (TWX) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Evercore; tgt $75
    • Initiations/Resumptions/Other
    o Apple (AAPL) target raised to $115 from $104 at Susquehanna; Positive
    o Citigroup (C) target raised to $68 at Oppenheimer
    o Seagate Tech (STX) initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna; tgt $75
    o Western Digital (WDC) initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna; tgt $130
    o Michael Kors (KORS) target lowered to $98 from $107 at Citigroup
  • Michael Kors on jätkamas täna langust (-6%), kuna mitu analüüsimaja on väljas korraga ettevaatlike kommentaaridega, olles täheldanud jaemüüja oodatust suuremaid allahindlusi võrreldes varasemate aastatega. Barclaysi sõnul küündisid suvekuudel allahindlused 30-40%ni, mis kokkuvõttes võib seada marginaalid surve alla. KORS avaldab tulemused 5. august enne turgu.

    Sterne: Elevated inventory levels, broader discounting, and investment needs may all combine to pressure margins in the near future, and as a result, we believe it will be difficult for the stock to outperform materially despite solid top-line trends.
  • Intelilt oodatust paremad tulemused ning näeb ka konsensusest positiivsemat käivet nii kolmandas kvartalis kui terve majandusaasta perspektiivis

    Intel prelim $0.55 vs $0.53 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $13.8 bln vs $13.72 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -- guidance raised to $13.4-14.0 bln from $12.5-13.5 bln
    Intel sees Q3 revs $13.9-14.9 mln vs $14.05 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; Co sees Q3 gross margin of 64-68% vs Street expectations averaging around 62.6%
    Intel raises FY14 rev growth to +5% from 'some' growth vs. +3.9% consensus (raised from ~flat on June 12) Co sees FY14 gross margin of 63% plus or minus a few percentage points vs Street expectations ranging near 62-62.4% (co previously guided for FY14 gross margin in the upper half of the previous range of 61%, +/- a few percentage pts)
    Intel board of directors authorized an increase of $20 billion to its share repurchase program and the company is forecasting share repurchases of approximately $4 billion in the third quarter, with additional share repurchases in the fourth quarter
  • Yahoo numbrid pisut alla ootuste, aktsia järelkauplemise ajal siiski +2%

    Yahoo! prelim $0.37 vs $0.38 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1.04 bln vs $1.08 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Yahoo! prelim Q1 display revs $394 mln, Street expectations $425 mln; Q1 Search revenue $418 mln, Street expectations $443.8 mln
  • Mulally liigub Microsofti asemel hoopis Google'sse....isesõitvad autod tulevikus suurema fookuse all?

    BREAKING: Google appoints Alan Mulally to its board of directors

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