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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 17. juuli

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Väikefirmade ja biotehnoloogia sektori aktsiaid kummitas eilegi veel Janet Yelleni kommentaar (Russell 2000 indeks langes -0,2% ja biotehnoloogiasektori indeks -1,3%), kuid ülejäänud turg osteti tagasi üles tänu Inteli oodatust parematele tulemustele ja prognoosidele ning M&A uudistele. S&P 500 sulgus 0,4% kõrgemal, Stoxx 600 taastus 1,3%.

    USA tööstustoodang osutus juunis oodatust marginaalselt madalamaks, kasvades maikuuga võrreldes 0,2% (prognoositi 0,3%) ning jäädes aasta baasil stabiilseks 4,3% kasvu juures. Tootmisvõimsuse kasutamismäär püsis 79,1% peal, mis jäi napilt alla kriisijärgsele tipule 79,3% peal.

    Majade ehitajate sentimendiindeks paranes juulis nelja punkti võrra 53 punkti peale, märkides kõrgeimat taset jaanuarist ning on kooskõlas uuesti paranema hakanud kinnisvarasektori näitajatega. Värskeim info USA kinnisvarasektori trendide kohta laekub juba täna, mil avaldatakse juunis alustatud elamuehituste ja väljastatud ehituslubade arv.

    Mai lõpust kuni juuli alguseni väldanud perioodil täheldas FEDi Beige Book Ühendriikide erinevates piirkondades tasakaalukat või mõõdukat majandusaktiivsust. Töötlevat tööstust, tarbijate kulutusi ja turismi kirjeldati positiivses valguses, samas kinnisvarasektor pakkus erisuguseid signaale. FEDi sõnul on tööturg jätkanud tugevnemist ning jõudnud punkti, kus osadel tööandjatel on juba raske töötajaid leida.

    Makrokalender jääb Euroopas täna suhteliselt õhukeseks, rohkem pakub Ühendriikide oma, kus selguvad möödunud nädala töötu abiraha taotlused, Philadelphia töötleva tööstuse aktiivsusindeks ja lisaks juuni esimesed kinnisvaraturu näitajad. Majandustulemused avaldavad teiste seas Baker Hughes, Morgan Stanley, Philip Morris, SAP, AMD, Google, IBM, Schlumberger.

    09.00 Euroopa Liidu uute autode registreerimised (juuni)
    12.00 Eurotsooni inflatsioon (juuni lõplik)
    15.30 USA alustatud elamuehituste arv (juuni)
    15.30 USA väljastatud ehituslubade arv (juuni)
    15.30 USA möödunud nädala töötu abiraha taotlused
    17.00 USA Philadelphia FEDi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (juuli)
    20.35 FEDi Bullard kõneleb rahapoliitika teemal

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,2% madalamal, Euroopas on suuremad börsid avanemas samuti kerge miinusega.

  • WSJ kalkulatsioonide kohaselt on Hiina kinnisvarasektoris toimunud juunis väike paranemine, kui majade müügi YoY langustempo aeglustus mai -10,8% pealt -5,3% peale. Juuni ametlik statistika 70 suurema linna kohta avaldatakse homme.
  • Juunis aeglustus tute autode registreerimise kasvutempo eurotsoonis 3,3% pealt 2,8% peale, Euroopa Liidus aga püsis 4,5% peal.

    • VW Group sales rise 2.5% y/y; ytd up 7.1%
    • Peugeot Citroen sales drop 0.2% y/y; ytd up 5.2%
    • Renault Group sales rise 23.5% y/y; ytd up 19.3%
    • GM Group sales drop 3% y/y; ytd down 0.8%
    • Ford sales drop 0.9% y/y; ytd up 6.5%
    • Fiat Group sales rise 6.9% y/y; ytd up 2.3%
    • BMW Group sales rise 4.5% y/y; ytd up 2.5%
    • Daimler sales drop 0.7% y/y; ytd up 2.1%
    • Toyota Group sales rise 5.5% y/y; ytd up 6.8%
    • Nissan sales rise 9.6% y/y; ytd up 10%


    Uute autode registreerimise YoY muutus: eurotsoon (valge) ja EL (oranž)
  • Mõned tänased reitingute muudatused Euroopas

    Saint-Gobain Raised From Market Perform to Outperform at Raymond James
    Bouygues Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Exane
    Drax Group Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi
    Eurotunnel Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman; PT 12 (Close 10,05)
    Michelin (PT €97), Nokian (PT 30,6) Rated New Neutral at Credit Suisse
    Continental (PT €201), Pirelli (PT€14,5) Rated New Outperform at Credit Suisse
    • We have a positive view on the European Tyre sector beyond 2014 supported by volume-driven earnings growth rather than margin expansion – as rising demand is offset by additional capacity – and strong demand for premium tyres. Structurally, we expect premium tyres to grow 2-3x faster than the market while we are more cautious on winter tyres post regulatory tailwinds.
    • Our analysis shows that Continental has the strongest asset base in terms of plant set-up and associated labour costs. Competitors look unlikely to close the gap meaningfully thus it is likely to maintain its premium margins. We see Pirelli as best positioned in terms of mix development owing to its continued plant upgrade towards the fast-growing premium segment, which we expect to grow faster than the market by 2-3x (2014-2017e).
    • For Michelin, we believe a more meaningful recovery of its specialty business would be required for it to outperform the sector, which we think is unlikely in the short term.
    JCDecaux Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Goldman; PT 27,8 to 28,3 (Close 27,2)
    Stroeer Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman; PT 14,75 to 21,25 (Close 16,79)
    Tele2 AB Cut to Equalweight vs Overweight at Barclays
    Onesavings Bank Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 220p (Close 164,0)
    Ashmore Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Goldman; PT 430 (Close 373,6)
    Norsk Hydro Added to Goldman Conviction Buy List; PT 36,5 to 42 (Close 36,9)
    Big Yellow Raised From Equalweight to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 445p to 615p (Close 500p)
    • Big Yellow has underperformed the property sektor like other London housing related stocks, yet its actual fundamentals, UK mortgage approvals and consumer spending, are recovering, and we expect its growth to accelerate.
    Diageo Cut to Underweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 1780 to 1760 (Close 1839)
    Yoox Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT Eu25 (Close 20,03)
    Imperial Tobacco Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
    Hikma Pharmaceuticals Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
    Buzzi Unicem Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS
    Gtech Raised to Buy vs Neutral at BofAML
    Moncler Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Nomura; PT 14,0 (Close 12,0)
    • Cites strong brand momentum, successful new openings, tight cost control among reasons for positive stance.
    • Says FCF generation also remains supportive, helping to fund future capex for expansion when required
    Sodexo Raised to Outperform at RBC Capital; PT 66 to 84 (Close 76,5)
    ASML Assumed Neutral at Piper Jaffray, PT Eu59 (Close 64,87)
    Volvo Rated New Neutral at Piper Jaffray; PT 101 (Close 93,85)
    Atlantia Kept as Top Pick in Building Construction at BofAML (Close 20,16)
    • Cites toll road traffic recovery in Italy, deleveraging, potential further asset rotation in airports
    • Has buy rating on Atlantia (PT EU24.5)
    • Also likes Ferrovial (buy; PT EU17.4); cites pricing power of assets, div. yld
    • In France, prefers Eiffage (buy; PT EU59) to Vinci (neutral; PT EU53); cites refinancing tailwinds among reasons
    • Has “more cautious” view on Abertis (neutral; PT EU16.8) because of full valuation and on Skanska (underperform; PT SEK127) due to ongoing execution, margin risk
  • Kuna Alibaba IPO tuleb? On mingit kuupäeva?
  • Ametlikku kuupäeva pole veel kinnitatud. Pakutakse, et augusti teise nädalal.
  • Ehkki Prantsusmaa majanduse käekäik pole viimasel ajal kõige parem olnud, ei takista see valitsuse võlakirja tulususte edasist langust uutele rekordmadalatele tasemetele.

    Prantsusmaa tööstustoodang YoY (oranž), valitsuse 10a võlakirja yield (valge)
  • Marek9 idamaades on 8 õnnelik number, seega on väike tõenäosus, et 8.8.2014
  • CS on täna KORSi kaitsmas, nentides et allahindlused jäävad väiksemaks kui konkurentidel. kinnitab outperform reitingut ja 107 USD targetit

    Our analysis of markdowns highlights high levels of full price selling for Michael Kors, with markdown rates below peers at mid-tier department stores. In these doors, 25% of Michael Kors product is currently on sale, with an average markdown of 27%, well below the group average for 35% of SKUs on sale at an average 27% markdown rate. This compares favorably with Calvin Klein (53%, 27%), Coach (37%, 30%), and Dooney & Bourke (34%, 34%.)

    Michael Kors promotions remain limited at premium department stores as well, with 3% of Michael Kors product currently on sale, with an average markdown of 31%, well below the group average for 7% of SKUs on sale at an average 34% markdown rate. This compares favorably with Kate Spade (12%, 34%), Coach (7%, 40%), and Tory Burch (4%, 37%.)
  • Euroala juuni inflatsioon kinnitati 0,5% peal, sama mis mais. Tuuminflatsioon 0,8%.
  • Morgan Stanley prelim $0.94 vs $0.55 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $8.6 bln vs $8.18 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Results for the quarter included a net discrete tax benefit of $609 million or $0.31 per diluted share
    Q2 EPS ex-DVA and $0.31 tax benefit $0.60 vs. $0.55 CIQ Cosnensus
  • USA juuni kinnisvarastatistika üllatavalt nõrk võttes eile majade ehitajate paranenud kindlustunnet arvesse. Töötu abiraha taotlused oodatust madalamad

    June Housing Starts 893K vs 1020K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to985 K from 1001
    Initial Claims 302K vs 311K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 305K from 304K
    June Building Permits 963K vs 1037K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 1005K from 991K

  • Mõned tänased analüütikute otsused USA firmade kohta:

    Upgrades
    BlackRock (BLK) target raised to $397 at RBC Capital Mkts
    Intl Game Tech (IGT) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
    Time Warner (TWX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney, tgt $100; upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim
    Downgrades
    Covidien (COV) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham
    Intl Game Tech (IGT) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
    PetSmart (PETM) downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $66
    Other
    American Intl (AIG) initiated with a Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $64
    Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) initiated with a Neutral at Nomura; tgt $65
    eBay (EBAY) target lowered to $52 from $54 at Susquehanna; Neutral
    Fiserv (FISV) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital Mkts; tgt $73
    Time Warner (TWX) target raised to $76 at RBC Capital Mkts; target raised to $70 at Topeka Capital Markets
    Williams-Sonoma (WSM) initiated with a Buy at Nomura
  • Philadelhpia töötleva tööstuse aktiivsusindeks kõrgeim alates 2011.a (23,9v oodatud 16,0 ja 17,8 juunis)

  • *INTERFAX SAYS PLANE MAY HAVE CRASHED NEAR RUSSIA-UKRAINE BORDER
    *MALAYSIAN BOEING 777 MAY HAVE CRASHED IN UKRAINE: INTERFAX
  • MALAYSIAN PASSENGER JET WAS SHOT DOWN AT 10 KM ALTITUDE: IFX
  • IBM tulemused üsna in-line

    IBM prelim $4.32 vs $4.31 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $24.4 bln vs $24.10 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    IBMs reaffirms FY14 EPS of at least $18/share
  • Google'i EPS oodatust nõrgem aga käive pisut parem

    Google prelim $6.08 vs $6.23 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $15.96 bln vs $15.61 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Paid Clicks increased approximately 25% y/y (In line with expectations) and increased approximately 2% q/q
  • AMD aktsia järelkauplemise ajal -15%

    AMD reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.02 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.03; revenues rose 24.1% year/year to $1.44 bln vs the $1.44 bln consensus.

    Co issues downside guidance for Q3, sees Q3 revs -1 to +5% QoQ to ~$1.43-1.51 bln vs. $1.57 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
  • Värskeima info kohaselt võib Alibaba IPO lükkuda septembrisse, kuna road-showga ei pruugita niipea alustada. Via Bloomberg: Alibaba Waiting Until After Labor Day to Begin IPO Roadshow

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