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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 11. jaanuar

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  • Ühendriikide aktsiaturgude indeksid läksid eile ründama uusi tippe, kuid andsid päeva teises pooles mõnevõrra järele, mis tähendas S&P 500 indeksi jaoks sulgumist ilma muutuseta ja Nasdaqi jaoks uut rekordit neljandat päeva järjest (+0,4%). Euroopas toibus Stoxx 600 sessiooni alguse -0,4% kaotusest, lõpetades 0,1% plusspoolel.

    Kuigi küsitlused on alates septembrist viidanud Prantsusmaa töötlevas tööstuses äritingimuste paranemisele, siis lõpuks paistis see välja ka reaalsetes andmetes, kui novembrikuu tööstustoodang hüppas eelmise kuuga võrreldes 2,2% ning kasvas aastatagusega võrreldes 1,8%, ületades analüütikute vastavalt 0,6% ja -0,2% prognoosi. Kriisieelse tipuga võrreldes jääb tööstustoodang täna veel 12% võrra madalamaks.

    Prantsusmaa tööstustoodangut peegeldav indeks (2010=100)


    USA väikeettevõtete kindlustunde indeks, mis pikalt vindunud alla oma ajaloolist keskmist, hüppas detsembris 7,4 punkti 105,8 punktile, märkides kõrgeimat taset alates 2004.a. Ligi poole tõusust moodustas ettevõtete kasvanud ootus, et majandustingimused hakkavad paranema. Suuremat liikumist näitasid veel küsitluses nende firmade osakaal, kes ootavad kõrgemat müügitulu ning leiavad, et praegu on hea aeg laienemiseks. Optimism võib olla oluline alustala kiirenevaks majanduskasvuks, kuid kuna oluline osa kasvanud kindlustundest tuleneb Donald Trumpile seatud kõrgetest ootustest, siis mingis punktis tahetakse näha ka lubaduste realiseerimist ja tegelikult paranevat majanduskeskkonda.



    Pöörates pilgud tänastele majandusuudistele, siis suuremat huvi võiksid pakkuda Hispaania ja Suurbritannia novembri tööstustoodangu muutused ning USA möödunud nädala kinnisvaralaenuaotluste muutus.

    10.00 Hispaania tööstustoodang (november)
    11.30 Suurbritannia tööstustoodang (november)
    14.00 USA hüpoteeklaenude taotlused (6. jaanuar)
    17.30 USA toornafta varude raport (6. jaanuar)
    20.20 FEDi Dudley esineb
  • Sarnaselt Saksamaale ja Prantsusmaale on ka Hispaania novembri tööstustoodang üllatamas positiivselt, kerkides MoM 1,7% (prog 0,4%) ning mullusega võrreldes 3,2% (prog 1,0%)
  • Suurbritannia töötleva tööstuse toodang kasvas novembris MoM 1,3% vs oodatud 0,5%, mis kergitas aastase kasvu 1,2% peale (oodati 0,4%). Detsembris 30 kuu tipu saavutanud PMI (kollane) viitab aktiivsuse edasisele paranemisele.
  • USA valitsuse võlakirjade tulusused on detsembri keskpaigast alates mõnevõrra järele andnud, kuid tundub et eelnev tõus pole laenutaotlustele olulist mõju avaldanud, kesvades eelmisel nädalal 5,8% pärast 0,1% tõusu detsembri viimasel nädalal (oranžiga on joonisel toodud 30a hüpoteeklaenu keskmine intressimäär).
  • UPGRADES:
    * Coca-Cola European (CCE) raised to buy at UBS
    * Enable Midstream Partners (ENBL) raised to outperform at Wells Fargo
    * Noble Energy (NBL) raised to outperform at BMO
    * Paychex (PAYX) raised to market perform at Bernstein, PT $59
    * Sterling Bancorp (STL) raised to overweight at Piper, PT $25.50
    * Summit Midstream Partners (SMLP) raised to outperform at Wells Fargo
    * Visteon (VC) raised to outperform at Raymond James, PT $105
    * Williams Partners (WMB) raised to outperform at Wells Fargo
    * Williams Partners (WMB) raised to strong buy at Raymond James, PT $44
    * Zions Banc (ZION) raised to neutral at UBS

    DOWNGRADES:
    * AT&T (T) cut to hold at Deutsche Bank
    * Allegiant Travel (ALGT) cut to hold at Stifel, PT $173
    * Ashford Hospitality (AHT) cut to neutral at Baird, PT $8
    * Devon (DVN) cut to market perform at Wells Fargo
    * EQT (EQT) cut to market perform at BMO
    * Estee Lauder (EL) cut to neutral at UBS
    * First Hawaiian (FHB) cut to sell at UBS
    * First Industrial Realty (FR) cut to neutral at Baird, PT $28
    * Genesis Energy (GEL) cut to market perform at Wells Fargo
    * Himax Technologies (3222 TT) cut to neutral at Roth Capital
    * Juniper (JNPR) cut to sell at Deutsche Bank
    * MMP (MMP) cut to market perform at Wells Fargo
    * Novadaq (NDQ CN) cut to market perform at William Blair
    * Novocure (NVCR) cut to market perform at Wells Fargo
    * Occidental (OXY) cut to market perform at BMO
    * Pacific Continental (PCBK) cut to market perform at KBW, PT$28
    * Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) cut to hold at SunTrust, PT $95
    * Sunstone (SHO) cut to neutral at Baird, PT $15
    * Surgical Care (SCAI) cut to hold at SunTrust, PT $57
    * Taubman Centers (TCO) cut to neutral at Goldman, PT $77
    * VCA (WOOF) cut to neutral at Credit Suisse, PT $93
    * Western Refining Logistics (WNRL) cut to market perform at Wells Fargo

    INITIATIONS:
    * 58.com (WUBA) rated new underperform at Bernstein, PT $25
    * Adobe (ADBE) rated new market perform at Wells Fargo
    * Alibaba (BABA) rated new outperform at Bernstein, PT $117
    * Autodesk (ADSK) rated new outperform at Wells Fargo
    * BB&T (BBT) rated new neutral at UBS, PT $49
    * Baidu (BIDU) rated new underperform at Bernstein, PT $150
    * Bank of America (BAC) rated new neutral at UBS, PT $23
    * Box (BOX) rated new outperform at Wells Fargo
    * CA (CA) rated new underperform at Wells Fargo
    * Citigroup (C) rated new sell at UBS, PT $58
    * Citrix (CTXS) rated new market perform at Wells Fargo
    * Ctrip (CTRP) rated new market perform at Bernstein, PT $41
    * Fifth Third (FITB) rated new sell at UBS, PT $25
    * GrubHub (GRUB) rated new outperform at Credit Suisse, PT $48
    * Hortonworks (HDP) rated new outperform at Wells Fargo
    * JD.com (JD) rated new underperform at Bernstein, PT $21
    * JPMorgan (JPM) rated new buy at UBS, PT $98
    * KeyCorp (KEY) rated new neutral at UBS, PT $19
    * Microsoft (MSFT) rated new outperform at Wells Fargo
    * Netease (NTES) rated new underperform at Bernstein, PT $200
    * Oracle (ORCL) rated new outperform at Wells Fargo
    * Ormat (ORA) rated new buy at Craig-Hallum, PT $70
    * PNC (PNC) rated new neutral at UBS, PT $128
    * Park Hotels (PK) rated new buy at Canaccord, PT $30
    * Qualys (QLYS) rated new market perform at Wells Fargo
    * Red Hat (RHT) rated new outperform at Wells Fargo
    * Regions Financial (RF) rated new sell at UBS, PT $13
    * Salesforce (CRM) rated new outperform at Wells Fargo
    * ServiceNow (NOW) rated new market perform at Wells Fargo
    * Splunk (SPLK) rated new outperform at Wells Fargo
    * SunTrust (STI) rated new neutral at UBS, PT $58
    * Tableau (DATA) rated new market perform at Wells Fargo
    * Teradata (TDC) rated new underperform at Wells Fargo
    * US Bancorp (USB) rated new buy at UBS, PT $60
    * VMware (VMW) rated new market perform at Wells Fargo
    * Vipshop Holdings (VIPS) rated new underperform at Bernstein,PT $10
    * WRD (WRD) rated new strong buy at Raymond James
    * Wayfair (W) rated new neutral at Credit Suisse, PT $40
    * Wells Fargo (WFC) rated new neutral at UBS, PT $58
    * Workday (WDAY) rated new market perform at Wells Fargo
    * Zendesk (ZEN) rated new outperform at Wells Fargo
  • Realmoney all räägitakse praegusest sentimendist:

    I'll end with a short anecdote on sentiment. I was in a small shop on Tuesday when another customer came in. I could not hear the beginning of the conversation between the customer and the shop owner, but my ears perked up when I heard the customer say, "Well, the stock market is up so much" (I was dying to correct her and point out it has gone nowhere in a month, but I did not). I thought to myself, I haven't heard folks discuss the stock market like this since January 2000, when a lady sat next to me on an airplane and could not stop raving about Nasdaq's performance in 1999.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:

    ICHR +9%, (sees Q4 revs $131 mln vs $117.90 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate, expects Q1 sales to be higher than Q4)
    MSM +2.5%, DE +1.2%, (light volume; releases December retail sales update)
    MX +0.8%, (MagnaChip Semi reports prelim Q4 sales at high end of guidance / above consensus; announces proposed $65 mln private offering of exchangeable senior notes and stock repurchase)
    VRX +0.5%, (reiterates FY16 guidance)
    M&A news:
    DSCI +41% (to be acquired by Integra LifeSciences (IART) for $7.00 per share)
    RAD +4% (NY Post discusses that regulators might complete review of Walgreens (WBA) and Rite Aide (RAD) merger before President Obama leaves office), ;
    Other news:
    BIOC +43.1% (continued strength)
    ENPH +22.1% (announces a $10 mln private placement of its common stock to T.J. Rodgers and John Doerr, chairman of Kleiner Perkins Caulfield & Byers)
    TGTX +10% (completion of enrollment in part 1 of its phase II study of TG-1101)
    AKAO +9.3% (Baker Bros discloses 13.1% passive stake)
    SGMO +6.8% (granted orphan designation by the FDA for its compound for the treatment of mucopolysaccharidosis type I )
    CTSO +6.3% (light volume; CytoSorbents and the U.S. Air Force determine to close the Company-sponsored, 30 patient, single site, randomized controlled human pilot study of the CytoSorb product to evaluate patients with severe trauma and rhabdomyolysis)
    ARLZ +4.2% (USPTO has issued patent covering Yosprala which will expire in late 2032 with possible patent term adjustment into early 2033)
    MRK +3.1% (receives FDA acceptance of supplemental biologics license application for Keytruda in combo with chemotherapy for first-line treatment of metastatic non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer)
    RDHL +2.9% (RHB-104 has been granted QIDP designation by the FDA for the treatment of Nontuberculous Mycobacteria infection)
    UAL +2.8% (expects Q416 consolidated passenger unit rev to decline 1.25-1.75% (prior 3-4%) compared to Q416)
    GST +2.1% (declares special cash dividends on 8.625% Series A Preferred Stock and 10.75% Series B Preferred Stock; enters into related amendment of credit agreement)
    AAL +1.6% (reports December traffic, raises Q4 TRASM, pre-tax margin; RPMs -0.8% y/y)
    MYL +1% (FDA has accepted Mylan's biologics license application for MYL-1401O, a proposed biosimilar trastuzumab)
    Analyst comments:
    KERX +4.8% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup)
    BT +2.7% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley)
    ESV +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)
    WRD +1.7% (initiated with a Strong Buy at Raymond James)
    PANW +0.8% (initiated with Outperform ratings at Wells Fargo

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:

    NVDQ -17.3%, (sees Q4 rev below consensus; sees FY17 rev below consensus), SVU -8.1%, SIG -4.6%, BWA -1.9%, LMNR -1.6%
    M&A news:
    ADM -5.6% (to acquire Crosswind Industries; terms not disclosed)
    Select pharma related names showing weakness:
    BMY -3.6%, AZN -1.6%, SHPG -1.1%
    Other news:
    SGNL -12.8% (pulling back following recent strength)
    ETRM -11.2% (pulling back following recent strength)
    GNVC -7.4% (pulling back following recent strength)
    PTN -5.3% (Palatin Technologies to hold call following closing of licensing agreement with AMAG Pharmaceuticals for North American rights to Rekynda)
    PFGC -5% (prices 10 mln common stock offering by certain of its stockholders, including affiliates of The Blackstone Group (BX) at $22.85/share )
    BRG -4.7% (commenced a public offering of 4,000,000 shares of its Class A common stock)
    TERP -4.5% (Brookfield Asset Management affirms 12.12% active stake, discloses the submission of alternative proposals to the company's advisors with respect to a potential transaction involving the company and/or TerraForm Global)
    PE -2.9% (announces Midland Basin and Delaware Basin acquisitions and introduces 2017 capital program and operating guidance; expects ~60% annual production growth in 2017; commenced an underwritten public offering of 20,000,000 shares of Class A common stock), .
    Analyst comments:
    HIMX -2.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at ROTH Capital)
    WUBA -1.6% (initiated with a Underperform at Bernstein)
    JD -1% (initiated with an Underperform at Bernstein )
    C -0.8% (downgraded to Sell at UBS)
    BIDU -0.7% (initiated with a Underperform at Bernstein)

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