Börsipäev 4. veebruar - Cisco!

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  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Cisco (CSCO) ei olnud piisavalt hea. Cisco oli keskmiselt hea. Prognoosid/tulemused olid enam-vähem seal kus neid oodati, kuid sellest lihtsalt ei piisanud, et õigustada praegust valuatsiooni. Pilgud on sunnatud firma book-to-bill numbrile, mis tuli allpool 1 taset. Lisaks sellele oli firma juht John Chambers tavapärasest veidi ettevaatlikum.

    Positiivsema poole pealt võiks mainida, et book-to-bill oli alla ühe ka eelmises kvartalis. Lisaks sellele ütles Chambers, et on järgmisesse kvartalisse minnes optimistlikum kui oli viimasesse tulles. Euroopa operatsioonide käive kasvas 19% võrreldes eelmise kvartaliga! (3Com (COMS) on võrgutajatest suurima Euroopa exposure'ga)

    Rääkisin täna hommikul ühe analüütikuga, kes arvas nii:

    Btw, these markets are starting to get interesting....companies in my space have seen a top tick in orders, and now firms like goldman are pulling back ratings as funds look to loosen up there positions in technology, specifically semiconductors, semi cap equipment.

    Cisco comments yesterday also lead to me believe that this rubber band effect of inventory replenishment is beginning to see the tail end of its momentum. If the enterprise space is not ordering routers, models will have to be re-evaluated and re-tooled, which means so do valuations.

    That leaves everyone with CSCO exposure in line to have some magnitude of a haircut to ordering growth expectations going forward. And that is a sh*tload of tech names.

    Puhtalt tehnilise poole pealt tasub jälgida $25 taset, kus juhtumisi asub ka 50 päeva libisev keskmine.

    - Ciena (CIEN) tuli ka välja negatiivse üllatusega. Firma teatas, et kasum ja käive tulevad selles kvartali oodatust väiksemad. Põhjuseks ühe suure tellimusi lükkumine. Järgmise kvartali käive peaks kasvama juba 20%. Turuosalised praegu tulistavad enne ning esitavad küsimusi hiljem. Tulemuseks -15%.

    - Repligen (RGEN)-i aktsiate omanikud peaksid uurima LHV Pro-d. So far so good.

    - Wall Street Journal (WSJ) kirjutab, et AT&T (T) kavatseb nädala lõpul välja tulla $200 mln suuruse eelarvega reklaamikampaaniaga, milles tõstetakse esile VoIP. See võib täna tekitada lühajalist huvi VoIP hype-aktsiates nagu EGHT jt.

    - Oracle (ORCL) teatas, et tõstab PeopleSofti (PSFT) pakkumise $22 pealt $26 peale.


    This week we have seen a distinct change in the character of the market. Momentum has dried up, the number of stocks hitting new highs is declining, buying enthuasiasm has waned and the market is drifting with a slightly negative bias.

    The big question is whether this is just a brief pause that will refresh and rejuvenate the bulls or something more ominous that will lead to further downside and a longer and more painful struggle. I don't know the answer to that. I have my suspicions but no one knows for sure so we must prepare.

    We need to patiently deal with the present difficulties. We need to be resolute and press on day by day. When the tide inevitably turns and the trading opportunities begin to flow once again, the strength and nerve and knowledge that we gained through our struggles will serve us well.

    Don't begrudge difficult times; they are as necessary as the rain is to a bountiful harvest. Embrace the market struggles and appreciate them for the good that they will eventually produce.

    Market weakness has many benefits for the bullishly inclined. The most obvious is lower prices, but more importantly it helps produce a healthier psychological environment. The market needs some worry and concern in order to keep moving higher. It's only when people are uncertain and hesitant about what to do that the market can climb steadily as they slowly overcome their fears and worries.

    The struggles are continuing this morning. The Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) earnings report was surprisingly mild. There were a few optimistic comments but much more caution than many had anticipated. The market probably would have been somewhat skeptical of a promotional earnings call anyway but it never had the chance. Cisco is down about $1.50 in the early going and is obviously weighing on the market mood.

    We are going to have a very good opportunity this morning to see how resilient this market is. Will it shrug off the Cisco report and find its footing once again? This market has been remarkably resourceful for nearly a year, consistently finding reasons why it should continue its upward ascent.

    The biggest problem for the bulls is that they are running out of catalysts to fuel a continued rise. Earnings season is almost over, the inflow of new capital to start the year is slowing and the economic data aren't offering anything particularly dramatic. We have little choice but to stay patient, play defense and keep plugging away while we wait for greater clarity.

    We obviously have a soft open on the way. Overseas markets struggled as the dollar continues to concern Asian exporters and technology stocks fell in sympathy with Cisco. Oil and good are up fractionally.

    Will the market shrug off this weak open and move higher or will it lead to more selling and further downside? The bulls are unlikely to roll over and play dead easily so be prepared for some choppy action.


    Futuurid: Naz-0.77% SP -0.51%


  • Julgeb keegi arvata mis CSCO 'st edasi saab ?
    Päris korralik miinus tuli eile ,lõpetas ka päeva madalamate juures.
  • Midagi erilist ei tohiks saada.Aasta lõpuks peaks ikka mõne dollari kõrgemal olema kui
    enne kukkumist - kusagil 30 all.

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