Börsipäev 16. juuni - Oracle majandustulemused

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  • -USA aktsiaturud on alustamas kerges plussis, S&P 500 futuurid on 4,2 punkti plussis, Nasdaq on 3 punkti plussis.

    -USA uute majade ehitamiste hoog on raugemas, kuid seda oodatust aeglasemas tempos, mais alustati aasta baasile viiduna 1,967 üksuse ehitamist, mida on 0,7% vähem kui aprillis (oodati numbrit 1,95 miljonit ühikut). Samas kerkis uute majade ehituslubade väljastamiste arv rekordilisele 2.077 miljonile (aasta baasile viiduna).

    -Kvartalitulemuste avaldamise tavapärasest rütmist kuu võrra ees olev Oracle (ORCL) aktsia avaldas eilsel järelturul oma tulemused. Firma käive kasvas 9% 3,1  miljardile dollarile, kasum kerkis 990 miljonile dollarile ehk oodatust veidi rohkem (19 senti aktsia kohta). Firma prognoosid on head, kuid firmade rakendustarkvara müük ei edene piisavalt hästi. Aktsia oli eelnevalt üles ostetud ning tulemused tõid aktsiale languse.

    -Satelliitside raadiot pakkuv Sirius (SIRI) sai Wachovia`lt "underweight" soovituse, firma tõi välja, et vaatamata agressiivsele prognoosile saavutada aastaks 2010 9,9 miljonit klienti (täna 440 000 klienti), on Sirius ülehinnatud ning 4,4 miljardi dollari suurune turukapitalisatsioon ei ole 13 miljoni dollari suuruse aastakäibe (2003) või 65 miljoni dollari suuruse käibeprognoosi juures õigustatud (2004).

    Rev Shark:

    The biggest problem for this market in recent weeks isn't world affairs, inflation, oil prices or the multitude of other things we read about each day. The primary problem is the lack of vigor and intensity. Neither the bulls nor the bears can gain any real traction. Both have plenty of ammunition, but they battle back and forth in a lazy and lethargic manner and we go nowhere. Nasdaq volume hasn't notably exceeded its 30-day simple moving average since late April and the S&P 500 is still around the same price it was back in early February. 

    Drive and intensity determine where the market is headed, not the news stories on which the media is focusing. Anyone who watched the Pistons and the Lakers saw a good example of that. The intensity of the no-name Pistons allowed them to humiliate the media darlings. 

    This market right now is like the Lakers. There are lots of good stories and news about it, but it is acting lame and disinterested. Even when they do score, they can't maintain an edge and take advantage of that spark of momentum. 

    Eventually that clumsy action leads to some dramatic changes. Either we get our act together and put together a rally or we fall apart and sink into the abyss. 

    Which way is this market headed? I've been bearish in recent weeks as this market rallied on unconvincing volume. The Nasdaq has been digesting that rally for a couple weeks now and continues to hold important support at the 200-day simple moving average of 1969. The downtrend line that has been in place since the beginning of the year is in sight. An up day on above-average volume at this point has a good chance of igniting some momentum. 

    The news environment also seems to be favoring the bulls. The interest rate issue was solidified to some degree yesterday by Mr.Greenspan, who seemed to indicate that a .25% hike was most likely. Oil and gas prices are coming down and the handover of Iraq is approaching. Earnings season is on the horizon and if the last quarter was any indication, we should see some solid reports. 

    The keys here are vigor and drive and persistence. The buyers need to step up and show that they have the buying power and the conviction to drive this market. 

    This morning we are breaking the recent seesaw pattern of morning gaps and are actually seeing a little follow-through to yesterday's positive action. Overseas markets were mostly higher. We have productivity and capacity utilization data later this morning, which will garner a little market attention, but overall it is a fairly slow news day. 

    I just saw the latest Investors Intelligence data, which shows a very sharp rise in bullishness in the latest week. Sentiment is at a four-month extreme, which is a definite negative for the bulls. 

    The bulls look like they have a slight edge coming into the day, but it is going to be very tough to get this market running right now, especially with that sort of sentiment data.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • SIRI siiski underweight reitinguga @ Wachovia.
  • Muutsin ära, minu jaoks Sirius endiselt müstiline ettevõte ja hea, et ka keegi veel leiab, et tegemist ülehinnatud ettevõttega. Samas, endiselt lühikeseks ei lähe, kuna emotsioonide jõud suurem kui fundamentaalne põhjendatus.

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