Börsipäev 2. juuli - juuni tööjõuraport oodatust kehvem

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  • Eilse järelturul toimunust tasub mainida andmebaaside tarkvara tootja Sybase (SY) käibe- ja kasumihoiatust, mille tõttu aktsia hind langes -7,30%. Tegu on teise järjestikkuse kvartaliga, mil hoiatatakse, seekord oodatakse 188-192M USD käivet ja 0.17-0.20 USD EPS konsenuse 199M USD ja 0.24 USD vastu.

    Täna leiame turu avanemas napis miinuses. Ehkki juuni tööjõuraport räägib loodud uute töökohtade arvu kasvust kõigest 112 000 võrra oodatud 250 000 asemel ei ole see vähemalt siiamaani futuuride sügavamat langust põhjustanud, sest tegu on ikkagi tubli tõusuga juba 4 kuud järjest.

    Rev Shark: 

    If I were to wish for anything, I should not wish for wealth and power, but for the passionate sense of the potential, for the eye which, ever young and ardent, sees the possible. Pleasure disappoints, possibility never. And what wine is so sparkling, what so fragrant, what so intoxicating, as possibility! 

    --Soren Kierkegaard 

    Yesterday's market action was a major disappointment for the bulls. After the Fed issued its interest rate decision and we ramped into the close on Wednesday, the bulls were in position to take control and run the market higher. But instead of taking charge, building some upside momentum and making a move for a breakout, the market focused on some disappointing earnings news in the chip sector and took a beating. The hopes of the bulls were dashed as we traded steadily lower throughout the day. 

    Although Thursday was a thoroughly ugly day for the bulls, it was not fatal. Volume wasn't so high as to be truly worrisome, and most key support areas are still holding. The S&P 500 failed again at the key 1140 area, but it has not breached key technical levels to the downside, which are 1123 and the 50-day simple moving average of around 1118. 

    The sharp reversal in the Nasdaq was particularly disappointing, as it has been asserting itself as a leader in recent days. The keys for the Nasdaq are the chips and biotechnology groups. It is not going to make a run at recent highs unless those groups participate. 

    The problem yesterday was clearly in the semiconductors, which is a worrisome sign. The earnings warnings from Emulex (ELX:NYSE) and Amkor Technology (AMKR:Nasdaq) were the catalysts that drove the group down. However, we did see some money rotating back into retail stocks such as Coach (COH:NYSE) and Nordstrom (JWN:NYSE). 

    Higher oil prices once again led to a rally in the oil stocks, which is another factor that weighed on the market yesterday. Now that the interest rate decision has been made, this market is concerned about growth and the price of oil is obviously a negative in that regard. 

    The monthly jobs report today will be particularly interesting. In recent months the market has been trying to balance inflation concerns against increased economic growth. There have been worries that if growth was too fast that it would cause rates to increase too fast. However, recent economic reports have been generally soft in recent weeks and the FOMC has made it clear what it is going to do. Thus, the market will probably react favorably to a strong jobs report. Inflation and interest rate fears are on the back burner, and what we need is economic growth. 

    Another issue for the market today is the upcoming July 4 holiday. A number of market participants will head out early and we will have the usual spate of terrorism concerns that may prompt some to limit their exposure over the weekend. Things are likely to be choppy this afternoon as trading thins. 

    The bottom line is that bulls can't rely on potential. They better get to work soon or they will squander their chances for a summer rally at this point. They still have an edge, but they are going to lose it fast if we don't see more aggressive buying soon. 

    Futures are flat at the moment as we await the jobs news. Overseas markets were mostly lower on weakness in technology stocks. 

    I see about ten earnings warnings this morning, which is not a good sign at all. So far, though, they have come mostly from smaller names. The level of warnings so far is much higher than it was in the first quarter, and that is worrisome. The bulls badly need some good earnings news if they are going to mount an upside attack.

  • Gapping Up/Down

    Gapping Up: BORL +9%, JUNO +8% (declares one time dividend), CAL +6% (reports June results), HOMS +6% (renews AOL agreement), ABRX +5% (receives FDA approval), TASR +4% (in-custody death lawsuit dismissed), IGT +3% (Pennsylvania Senate votes to legalize slot machines)... Under $3: DFIB +15% (receives 510k clearance), INFO +9% (granted patent).... Gapping Down: WEBM -27% (guides lower), AAPL -6% (new iMac desktop won't ship until September -- WSJ), CECO -4% (reviews recent accreditation actions), ESPD -16% (warns for Q2), MAMA -14% (Mark Cuban discloses no longer owns MAMA shares), MXO -13% (guides lower, Baird downgrade), CCUR -12% (Q4 warning), INFA -12% (guides below consensus), CMX -8.4% (receives Civil Investigative Demands from Washington Attorney General; other states to follow), NYB -6% (issues in-line guidance; CEO says sale still an option; Bear Stearns downgrade), NFLX -3% (reports Q2 subs).
  • New 52-Week Highs/Lows

    The new high list is notably smaller today with oil & gas stocks leading the way. A number of tech stocks are at new lows.... Tallies so far today for new highs vs lows are 90-31 (NYSE) and 39-46 (Nasdaq). Sectors with good representation on the new high list today include Retail (COH, KMRT), Food/Restaurants (FSM, SBUX, TSN, WFMI), Oil & Gas (COG, EGN, SWN, TSO, VLO, WGR)... Notable New Lows being made by PF Chang's (PFCB 40.15 -0.13), Cardinal Health (CAH 51.80 -1.06), Thoratec (THOR 10.42 -0.30) and a bunch of technology stocks (AKLM, BORL, DCLK, ESPD, INFA, IPAS, KANA, LEXR, NTGR, PCLE, PRSF, WEBM).

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