Börsipäev 7. juuli - tulemuste hooaeg avatud

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  • Täna saab tulemuste hooaeg avatud kui peale turu lõppu raporteerivad Alcoa (AA), Genentech (DNA) ja Yahoo! (YHOO).

    Enne turu avanemist on olulisematest tulemustest laekunud Accenture (ACN) tulemused, ootustele vastavate tulemuste järel on aktsia eelturul -1,80%, antud turusituatsioonis lihtsalt prognooside täitmist ilmselt ei väärtustata.

    Massiliselt kasumihoiatusi on laekunud tarkvaratootjatelt, hoiatuse andnud on eelturul suures miinuses: Ascential Software (ASCL) -18,90%, JDA Software (JDAS) -13,50%, Kana Software (KANA) -12,32%, Peoplesoft (PSFT) - 7.85%.

    Prognoose kergitanud Quest Software (QSFT) aktsia aga +7,65%.

    Rev Shark:

    "If Thomas Edison invented electric light today, Dan Rather would report it on CBS News as, "Candle-making industry threatened." 

    -- Newt Gingrich

    The market suffered one of its weakest days of the year yesterday as technology stocks led the selloff. The selloff took place on heavy volume and left few sectors untouched, but the most troubling aspect was the breach of important technical support levels in all the major indices.

    Quite often, market participants struggle to understand what caused a particular move in the market. This time there wasn't any great mystery; there has been no good news for the bulls to use as justification for buying. We have had more than the usual number of earnings warnings, some from bellwethers, and a spate of weaker-than-expected economic news. The bulls simply have not been given any convenient reason to justify buying.

    The bulls will argue that things really aren't that bad. The economy is still growing, interest rates are under control, and the "good" earnings reports will be out soon. Perhaps, but probably the biggest positive for the bulls is that the aggressive selloff should decrease the high level of optimism we have had recently. There have been too many bulls, and that has probably reduced that amount of buying power out there to drive the market up. Days like yesterday go a long way toward increasing the amount of cash on the sidelines that can used to fuel a future rally.

    The bulls' best hope right now is that the earnings season produce some good reports that will help change the market mood. We have Alcoa (AA:NYSE), Genetech (DNA:NYSE) and Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) reporting after the close tonight, but the great bulk of reports doesn't start until next week. The Yahoo! report tonight probably has the best potential for bringing in some buying, but it is a highly anticipated event, and investor expectations may still be quite high.

    One of the benefits of the recent market softness is that good earnings report can have a favorable impact. Expectations are not high, and we are unlikely to see a sell-the-news reaction to solid reports.

    With the exception of the earnings reports mentioned above, there is a paucity of news events that is going to make it tough going for the bulls who badly need some catalyst to spark some buying. Throw in the technical damage that has been done, and we are going to need to be very suspicious of any rally right now.

    The key sector to watch today is software. There were more warnings in the sector last night after the group led to the downside yesterday. If this group can find a bottom, that would be a positive, but the news so far has been surprisingly bad, and buyers are unlikely to be interested in bargain-hunting at this juncture.

    The bulls are hopeful that this weakness is setting us up for a good rally when earnings reports start to hit in earnest. That may well be the case, and that hope is likely to help support the market for the next few days.

    We have a little bounce in futures to start the day Overseas markets did little, but oil is trading down. The dollar is weak, and gold has spiked up and is making a run at the $400 level again.

    Gary B. Smith


  • Tarkvara on tõesti sektor kus suur osa muresid viimastel päevadel tulnud on, nõudlus tundub seal olevat äkitselt ära vajunud. Eks esimesed tulemused sealt ja teistest sektoritest annavad täpsemalt aimu.
  • Gapping Down

    A number of stocks are lower on warnings: SCUR -33%, FILE -28%, ASCL -20%, NTPA -16%, JDAS -14%, NITE -12%, PSFT -8%.... COCO -4% (announces streamlining of Canadian campuses, neg impact on Y05 EPS), LLL -3% (JP Morgan downgrade), EBAY -2% (Prudential downgrade).

    Gapping Up

    SFLK +22% (co and Microsoft join forces for Homeland Security), CAMT +19% (guides Q2 revs), GERN +6% (announces Telomerase license agreement with Procter & Gamble), QSFT +6% (guides above consensus), AKS +4% (Merrill upgrade), SUNW +3% (estimates raised above consensus at Merrill).... Air Cargo stocks are running again: WLDA +17% (to lease two additional cargo jets), AIRT +11%... Under $3: SSPX +17%, MCLD +16% (inks deal with AT&T), GGNS +8%.
  • Jätkates eilset traditsiooni,...

    ...ma söön oma SUURE, KARVASE, REBASENAHAST mütsi ära, kui juba praeguseks pole garanteeritud, et homme on enimkaubeldud aktsiate seas 1) WLDA ja 2) SFLK

  • suffiks, vihjed on head asjad, kuid miks homme ja mitte täna?
  • See ei ole saba kergitamiseks, aga lihtsalt olen tähele pannud, et kui Eesti (HPA) ning Soome, Saksa (NOK) aktsiad välja arvata, kipub enimkaubeldud aktsiate nimekiri kahtlaselt sarnanema minu treideri tehingu väljavõtetega :/. Ma järeldan sellest, et treideri kasutajaskond on suht õhuke või ei rakendata seda tema võimete kohaselt. No, treidimine treidimise pärast on muidugi ridikjulõs, aga siiski...

    Ah jaa, listi apdeiditakse ju järgmine päev, kui ma olen õigesti tähele pannud.
  • poisid, lõpetage see karvamütsi söömise jutt, mul tuleb kohe selline imelik tunne peale ...

    Ridikjulõs, et tõenäoliselt regati ekstra selle postituse jaoks selline kaval kasutajanimi :). Küll mõnel on ikka energiat ülearu.
  • James Altucher realmoney.comis kirjutab oma QQQ-crash süsteemist, mis on töötanud 48 korda 48-st:

    The Crash: A move in the Nasdaq-100 Unit Trust (QQQ:Amex - commentary - research) that is 1.5 standard deviations down from its 10-day moving average.

    Using the 10-day average guarantees that the move will be sharp. Using 1.5 standard deviations guarantees that the move is larger than 95% of the moves the QQQ has made in its five-year history.

    The Buy Signal: The morning after the crash. The dust has settled. The panic is over. Buy the open.

    The Sell Signal: On the earlier of the following two events: 1) a close that is higher than the entry price of the position; or 2) after 20 trading days (one month).
  • Kuidas tõde tehakse:

    10:55 CHTR Charter Comm lifts on sketchy rumor that Mark Cuban will raise his stake in co (3.84 +0.09)
    The source of this rumor appears to be online message boards.

  • Altrucher jätab märkimata, et 48x järjest (tehingutasusid arvestamata) toimis süsteem 1999-2001. Viimasel 3 aastal on olnud vähemalt paar 20 päevast timeouti ja kogukasum ligikaudu 0.
  • Hm, coral, kust seda vaatasid? Tema jutust saan aru, et see siiski alates QQQ-ga kauplemise algusest kuni tänaseni on töötanud 48-st 48 korda.

    Eelmine aasta kirjutas ta nii:

    From March 1999 (the advent of the QQQs) to May 2003, when I first wrote about the system, there had been 40 trades triggered, 40 of them winners, with an average gain of 2.55% per trade. Partly to avoid the dangers of curve-fitting, I examined the system from a variety of viewpoints, varying the moving average, the number of standard deviations and the holding period; all were successful versions of the same system.
  • Noh, kui keegi Realmoneys annab kindla süsteemi mis töötab ajalooliselt 100%, siis võid kindel olla, et testijaid jagub:). Tegelikult võib Altucheril muidugi ka õigus olla, sest ta annab vaid oma süsteemi sõnalise kirjelduse. Samuti pole teada mis datat ta kasutab. Ka sellest võib tulla erinevusi. Igal juhul soovitan enne järgitegemist see ära testida.
  • Testida tuleks loomulikult, ega see polnudki otsese soovitusena mõeldud, pigem silmaringi laiendava võimalusena.
  • Yahoo! (YHOO) ei avanud majandustulemuste hooaega kuigi kena pauguga, prognoosid suudeti napilt täita ja see polnud investoritele piisav. Aktsia on järelturul koguni 12% miinuses.

    Ka teine suurem tulemustega tulnud ettevõte Alcoa (AA) ei tulnud piisavate tulemustega ning aktsia -2.5%.

    Oluline kuidas turg homme neid negatiivseid sõnumeid seedida suudab.

    16:36 YHOO Yahoo! reports in line EPS, revs slightly below consensus (32.60 -0.62)

    Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.08 per share, in line with the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.08; revenues rose 89.5% year/year to $609.1 mln vs the $611.7 mln consensus. Company sees Q3 revs of $610-650 mln (excluding TAC), consensus $649.3 mln, sees Y04 revenues of $2.46-2.54 bln, consensus $2.53 bln.
  • Kuid mis toimub tarkvarasektoriga (indeksaktsia SWH)?? See nädal mitmeid hoiatusi ja täna õhtul ka veel Siebel (SEBL) hoiatas. Kauplemine peatatud, jätkub ilmselt kell 00.15 meie aja järgi.

    QQQ on nende uudiste peale 1.35% järelturul miinuses.
  • LHV Pro tootluse tabel uuendatud, kolumnide veerus
  • Siebel Systemsi (SEBL) puhul tahaks viidata korra firma $4 cashile per aktsia. Hetkel kaupleb SEBL $7-8 vahel.

  • Ei ole küll LHV Pro kasutaja (kaalun veel), aga äkki on võimalik LHV Pro tootluse tabel ka registreerimata kasutajatele vaatamiseks välja panna. Kasvõi mingi lihtsustatud vorm a la Aktsia X, Tootlus Y, Perioodil Z. Minu meelest ei avalda selline tabel mingit spetsiifilist infot, mille eest LHV Pro kasutajad juba maksnud on, pigem oleks see veel siis nö "präänik" minnusugustle, et ikkagi liituda Pro kliendiks
  • Mingi pildi saaks juba ka sellest, kui LHV Pro keskmist tootlust oleks võrreldud indeksite tootlusega erinevate perioodide jooksul. Ehk pole see nii suur saladus........
  • Kusjuures Suffiks ei peagi täna oma SUURT, KARVAST, REBASENAHAST mütsi ära sööma (vt. sissekanne 07/07/04 16:54) . Milline kohutav ebaõnn, suffiks jääb nüüd täna ilma õhtusöögita!
  • terje aru karvamütsist. ma mõtlesin, et kuda inimestel on paari aasta tagused "repliigid" meeles; selleks on ainult üks võimalus - kasutada episoodilist mälu. tundub, et juhtusin samuti lugema ja "lõin ka kujutluspildi" :D
  • 08:57 SEBL Siebel Systems upped to Mkt Perform from Underperform at Bernstein, tgt goes to $8 from $7 (7.98 )

  • Jah, just lugesin ka. Tra, siuke asi ajab marru, kas tõesti püütakse niimoodi lihtsameelseid? See näitab minu meelest ilmekalt "investeerimispankade" """""soovituste""""" kaalu ja sisu:

    Kui ENNE warningut oli target ja reiting madalamad, siis PÄRAST warningut tõstetakse reitingut ja hinnasihti. Nahhuj, nagu mingil krdi möbiuse lehel elaks, mitte planeet maal.
  • Leidsin ühe foorumi suvest, kus üks James Altucheri strateegia välja toodud. Enamus tema ideid päris hoolikalt backtestitud. Nii ka järgmine:

    On Dec. 13, I wrote about a system that has historically worked to take advantage of tax-loss selling. The idea is initially derived from the "Free Lunch System" discussed in the Stock Trader's Almanac, by Yale and Jeffrey Hirsch.

    As I wrote at the time, the Hirsch system calls for investors to buy stocks on Dec. 30 that are trading near their one-year lows and sell on Feb. 15. The idea is to take advantage of stocks that might have sold off particularly hard at year-end because of tax-loss selling and then ride the wave of inflows as these stocks pop back up at the beginning of the year.

    I modified the system, calling it the "Tax-Selling System," and designed it particularly to focus on the idea that stocks that are sold because of any sort of tax selling quickly rebound in the first two weeks of the new year. My system calls for traders to buy any stock in the S&P 1500 on the last trading day of December that has sold off 5% or more for the month, and sell two weeks later.

    For example, consider Vitesse (VTSS:Nasdaq - commentary - research) from December 2003. The stock had dropped 18% in the month, and buying on Dec. 31 at $6.00 and selling on Jan. 15 at $7.46 resulted in a profit of 24%.

    The results of the system, which was tested on S&P 1500 stocks from 1999 to 2004, were:

    Number of trades: 1,294
    Number of successful trades: 893 (69%)
    Average return per trade: 7.53%
    Average return per winning trade: 14.0%
    Average return per losing trade: -7.11%

    For those interested in playing with this system, the stocks that were down 5% or more in December are listed below. It's not practical to buy all of these stocks and sell them all in two weeks, so I would take a look at each individual stock and investigate the underlying fundamentals that might have caused the selloff. 

    Ticker SymbolPercent Change in DecemberTicker SymbolPercent Change in December
  • Ning veel üks Altucheri mõttekäik, vaadatud seda, kuidas läheb aasta, kui jaanuari esimesed viis päeva on positiivsed või kui terve jaanuar on positiivne. Viimane peaks siis olulisem olema.


    The January Barometer Revisited

    By James Altucher
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/4/2005 7:35 AM EST

    I've been reading a lot in the media about the January five-day barometer. The idea being that if the first five days of the month are up, then one should buy and hold for the rest of the year. If the first five days of the month are down, then one should sell (or short) and hold that position for the rest of the year.

    At first glance, this "early warning system" appears to be superficially true. Since 1956, the first five days have been up on 31 occasions. Buying at the close of the fifth day and holding until the end of the year resulted in success in 23 out of 31 occasions, for a success rate of 74%.

    However, while it seems predictive, the question to ask is: "As compared to what?" Is it any more or less predictive than any other five-day period?

    In fact, since 1956, buying at the close of any positive five-day period, and holding for 245 trading days, has resulted in success on 71% of the 6,835 occurrences.

    So the predictability of the first five days is not really any more or less than that of any random five-day period, and I would not base a yearlong allocation on this so-called "early warning system."

    A Kernel of Truth
    However, using the month of January as a predictor is not completely without merit. Since 1956, the market has been up for the entire month of January on 30 occasions. In 26 of those years (86%), the market was up from Jan. 31 until Dec. 31 for an average return per trade of 11.38%.

    On all other months, if that month was up, buying and holding for 11 months worked on only 72% of occasions for an average return of 7.6% per trade.

    None of this is something I would build a trading system around. However, it's interesting to note that while the five-day barometer has zero merit, January as a whole may offer slightly more predictability. However, this only works with confidence when January is up. In the 18 occasions when January has been negative, the remainder of the year was positive nine times and negative nine times.

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