Börsipäev 8. juuli

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  • Täna leiame turud avanemas miinuses, kui vana majanduse miinus on suht napp (0.2-0,3%), siis tehnoloogiasektor alustab ligi 1% allpool eilset, põhjuseks eelkõige Yahoo! (YHOO) tulemused - kasum vastas ootustele ja käibe tuli vaid pisut alla ootuste, ometi on aktsia eelturul õle -10% langenud ja löögi all on ka teised internetisektori esinadajad: Amazon, eBay jne. Lisaks andis kasumihoiatuse järjekordne tarkvarasektori esindaja Siebel Systems (SEBL), aktsia eelturul -11,62%.

    Genentech (DNA) kasum vastas ootustele, käive kasvas 41% ja ületas konsenuse ootusi - 1,13 miljardit USD vs. 1,065 miljardit USD, aktsia eelturul +1%

    Alcoa (AA) jäi vaatamata 70% EPS kasvule ikka alla ootustele nii kasumi (EPS 0.46 USD vs. konsensus 0.48 USD) kui käibe osas, aktsia eelturul -2,29%

    Rev Shark: 

    "We have heard that a million monkeys at a million keyboards could produce the complete works of Shakespeare. Now, thanks to the Internet, we know that it is not true." 

    --Robert Wilensky

    A lackluster report from Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) last night is having wide impact this morning. The primary collateral damage is to big Internet stocks such as eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq), Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq) and Ask Jeeves (ASKJ:Nasdaq). The big problem for these stocks is that they have been priced aggressively and have no room for less-than-perfect execution.

    Despite the very negative initial reaction to the Yahoo! report, the analysts aren't giving up on it yet. In fact, Goldman Sachs is advising that the stock be bought on this weakness and blames the problem on overly aggressive estimates by analysts who obviously lack the insight of those who work at Goldman.

    In any event, the Internet sector will present a very good test of how forgiving this market might be. We have not seen high expectations in front of these earnings reports, and that certainly was a correct view to take, but the question is whether views are still too optimistic.

    If Yahoo! were the only poor report, we might be able to excuse it as an aberration, but the flow of bad news continues. Alcoa (AA:NYSE) disappointed with its report, and that may affect some of the basic industry stocks that have been holding fairly well recently. Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) is reporting June same-store sales of 2.2% vs. estimates of 3.6%, and a number of other retailers have poor monthly reports out also. Seibel (SEBL:Nasdaq) adds its name to the long list of disappointments in the software sector with a warning.

    I've been yammering lately about how the bulls badly need some good news to justify putting their capital to work. The headlines this morning have given them nothing. They have had nothing to work with in recent weeks, and it is taking a toll on the technical picture. All the major indices are below their 50-day moving average, and the Nasdaq has solidly cracked its 200-day simple moving average. There is little downside support, and even if the market manages to right itself and shrug off the poor Yahoo! report, it is going to take much work to improve the technical picture.

    However, it is earnings season, and things can change quickly. Unfortunately, we don't have any major earnings reports out again until after the close next Tuesday. That gives market participants quite a bit of time to sit and worry about the lack of positives in this market.

    I would not be surprised to see the weakness in the Internet stocks bring in buyers this morning, especially in the "collateral" stocks. If you are inclined, it is very easy to dismiss these stocks as overpriced, but the institutions have a love affair with them and are generally inclined to buy them on weakness regardless of the news.

    We have the weekly unemployment report coming up at 8:30 ET which may cause a blip or two on the screens. The recent trend in this data has been a big discouraging but not bad enough to really cause a problem. A sharp drop in unemployment claims would be a definite positive, but there is nothing to indicate that is likely.

    Overseas markets were mostly negative following the Yahoo! news. Oil and gold are trading up.

    Selling into the opening weakness on a day like this is often not a good idea. If you find yourself holding stocks that are gapping down, try to keep your emotions in check and don't do anything in a panic. The news flow has been so bad lately, it almost has to improve.

    G. B. Smith:


  • Gapping Up

    SSPI +40% (software successfully ported by Boeing), BLDP +7% (co, DCX and Ford solidify program development plans), CKFR +5.4% (announces service deal with Wachovia), FCEL +3% (in sympathy with BLDP), PLUG +2% (in sympathy with BLDP).... Under $3: OPTV +10% (settles patent litigation with Disney), EGHT +9% (becomes Buy.com's premiere partner).
    Gapping Down

    YHOO -11% (reports in line EPS, revs slightly below consensus) -- down in sympathy: ASKJ -7%, MAMA -6%, AMZN -5%, FWHT -5%, AKAM -5%, EBAY -4%..... SEBL -12% (warns for Q2, Soundview downgrade), BMC -12% (guides lower; First Albany downgrade), SCHN -8% (beats by $0.12, but light on revs), XOMA -5% (DNA's Raptiva sales).... Down on weak June same store sales/lowered guidance: WTSLA -9%, PLCE -9%, ROST -6.4%, TLB -5%, HOTT -4%, ANF -3.5%.
  • Armor Holdings (AH) on juba üle nädala aja käes olnud, rühib päris eduliselt ülespoole. Nüüd hakkab väike huvi tekkima, et millega firma tegeleb. Kas keegi teab?
  • Never mind, vaatasin juba Yahoost järgi. Sõjatööstus, nagu arvata oligi.
  • Dow juba plussis, murravad miinuse ära!

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