Börsipäev 22. juuli

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  • Gapping Up

    Moving higher on strong earnings and/or guidance: LRCX +9%, ACSEF +18%, TSCM +12%, CCMP +11%, SWKS +9%, VISG +7%, ELNK +5.4%, SYMC +3%.... APSG +4% (to be added to S&P 600 SmallCap Index)... Under $3: TGAL +18% (awarded two patents for nano layer deposition).

    Gapping Down

    Lower on disappointing earnings: ERES -9%, EBAY -5%, CAT -5%, DRRX -30%, AEIS -22%, UTEK -17%, ELAB -7%, EXTR -7%, SSTI -6% (also Wachovia downgrade), SWIR -6%, CFC -3.3%..... AMZN -2.3% (sympathy with EBAY), IMCL -4% (Erbitux's high price raises difficult questions - WSJ).
  • Peale eilset suurt langust ei ole turud oluliselt põrganud. Eile kukkus biotehnoloogia indeks BTK 5,9% ning ka täna on indeks üle protsendi miinuses.

    USA eelmise nädala töötu abiraha taotluste arv langes 11 000 võrra 339 000 taotlusele. Nelja nädala keskmine näitaja langes 336 000 peale, samal ajal oodati selle kerget tõusu.

    Majandustulemused avaldanud eBay (EBAY) suutis ootustele vastata, kuid aasta lõpu prognoos jäi oodatust kehvemaks. Aktsia alustas päeva 4% miinusega. Kolmandast kvartalist oodatakse kasumit 25 senti aktsia kohta ning kogu aasta tulemuseks 1,17 dollarit aktsia kohta, käibeks prognoosib firma 3,185 miljardit dollarit.

    Rev Shark:

    This market isn't drunk, but it is looking downright ugly. The action yesterday was some of the worst since the depths of the bear market two years ago and there is nothing to indicate a major change is immediately forthcoming. Despite some soothing comments from Alan Greenspan and surprise news from Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq), the buyers continued to have no interest in buying even at "bargain" prices.

    With the buyers on strike, disappointing news in the biotechnology and semiconductor sector led to some dramatic point losses in the groups. With those two sectors leading the way, the Nasdaq went into a broad freefall on strong volume. The volume increase was due in part to Microsoft's news, but it was troubling nonetheless.

    The best course of action now is the same as when the market is strong: respect the momentum. When the market is moving in one direction on increased volume with a series of failed counter moves, don't anticipate that things will suddenly change. As I've said many times, the market always seems to move further in one direction than feels reasonable.

    If your style is to try to anticipate turning points, make sure you build your positions slowly and leave plenty of room to average in further. If you are a momentum trader then play the downside or stick to cash.

    Keep in mind that the ugly technical picture is not going to improve overnight. As we saw over the last two days, one bounce does not mean the worst is over. Don't be too quick to chase a bounce until there are some signs that stabilization is taking place.

    We have another round of earnings reports to deal with this morning. The big one, eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq), issued disappointing guidance but there were some positive reports from Qualcomm (QCOM:Nasdaq), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS:Nasdaq) and Lam Research (LRCX:Nasdaq) among others.

    The bulls are going to argue that this market is overdoing it to the downside and things really aren't that bad. Maybe so, but your primary goal should be to protect your capital until the odds are in your favor. Bottom-fishing in the hopes that the rest of the market will soon recognize what a great "value" your favorite stock is can be an extremely dangerous course of action when the trend is down.

    If you keep your capital intact, there will be plenty of time to rack up gains when the market environment is more hospitable. For now, respect the downward momentum and ignore the traditional Wall Street, which will always be urging you to stay fully invested.

    We have a slightly negative open shaping up. Overseas markets were down in sympathy with yesterday's carnage in the U.S., with technology stocks leading the way. There are a lot of earnings reports as well as the weekly unemployment numbers to digest.

    Stay patient and make your moves very slowly and incrementally. Capital preservation is the name of the game right now.

  • Kas Raisiot tasuks praeguselt tasemelt (1,73EUR) osta?
  • Tundub, et Raisio hind kerkis vaid 0,3 eurise dividendi lubaduse peale. Muud põhjust ei näe. Ostu puhul teeb ettevaatlikuks asjaolu, et nimetet dividend jagatakse kahes osas (sügisel ja kevadel).
    Ise oman 1,83-ga:(
  • paanikaks pole põhjust, kohe liigub edasi üles. Vahetult enne esimest dividendimakset sügisel kindlasti 2 Euro all.
  • Raisio: kui on soov makse optimeerida, siis tasub osta (ilmselt saab dividendid augustis). Uue investeeringuna ei julge enam soovitada, kuna põhjendatud fundamentaalne väärtus on ca 2,1€ (6-12kuud). Mina hoian aktsiaid üle dividendide ja siis vaatan investeeringu uuesti üle. Pikk@1,1€.


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