Börsipäev 11. august - Cisco turgu rõhumas

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  • Peale eilset tõusu leiame turu täna avanemas parajas miinuses: Dow Jones ca -0,41% ja Nasdaq -1,01%.

    Languse peamiseks põhjuseks on eile peale turu sulgemist Cisco (CSCO) poolt avaldatud tulemused, aktsia ise on täna eelturul languses -8,80% kui ettevõtte täitis küll lõppenud kvartali prognoosid, kuid tulevikuväljavaated ei ole just rõõmustavate killast kui järgmisteks kvartaliteks käibe olulist kasvu ei oodata samas kui lõppenud kvartal juba andis tunnistust marginaalide vähenemisest.

    Rev Shark:

    "Trust everybody, but cut the cards."

    -- Finley Peter Dunne

    Stock market participants have to be capable of trust or they will never be able to do anything. All trades and investments require a certain amount of blind faith. There are no guarantees or certainties. Either you learn to trust or you stick to treasury bonds.

    That doesn't mean that your trust level never changes. There are times, like now, when we should be extremely skeptical of the market's ability to reverse course. The real gamblers act on their gut feel about the market. They make the big, bold bet and hope they hit a home run.

    The professional trader takes a different approach. He doesn't trust until he sees a situation where the odds are in his favor. He doesn't rely on anecdotal evidence, hope or blind faith. He stays patient and then, when conditions are right, he puts his trust in his experience and facts, and places his bets.

    Our No. 1 goal in the stock market isn't to make as much money as possible, but to stay in the game. As long as you stay in the game, you have the potential for profits. The way you stay in the game is to be very careful about trusting your hard-earned capital to risky situations. You don't want to be so cautious you never do anything but you also want to be selective enough that you are playing only high-odds situations.

    In a poker game, you can always bluff if you find yourself on the wrong end of the deal, but that doesn't work with Mr. Market. You can talk all you want about your winning hand, but Mr. Market will always call your bluff. Trying to outlast Mr. Market with a contrary trade is a tough way to earn a living.

    After the nice, low-volume move following the FOMC interest rate decision, the serial-bottom callers were once again ready to declare victory. Unfortunately Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) didn't cooperate. It issued a weak forecast and is struggling with too much inventory.

    The light volume yesterday was the key tip-off that the bounce should not be trusted. Don't worry about catching the lows; wait for the odds and then you attack. Right now the odds continue to favor the bears.

    We have a very weak open on the way, with Cisco wrecking havoc in a number of ways. The market continues to be quite oversold, which means we should see some upward spike attempts, but they are likely to attract sellers rather than buyers.

    G. B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    PCNTF +8% (reports JunQ), LCBM +6% (reports JunQ), SPOT +3%, TOMO +2% (makes acquisition in China)... Stem Cells catching interest: ASTM +8%, STEM +6.5%.

    Gapping Down

    CSCO -8.2% (reports JulQ, slight miss on gross margins and increase in inventories; three tier-1 downgrades), Down in sympathy with CSCO: PMCS -7.8%, BRCM -6.2%, JNPR 4.9%, ERICY -4.6%.... NSM -8.3% (lowers AugQ rev guidance; Smith Barney downgrade), Semis down in sympathy: ALTR -5.6%, XLNX -5.0%.... KLIC -25% (lowers SepQ rev guidance), ANF -10.4% (beats by a penny, slightly light on revs, guides below consensus, Piper downgrade), UTSI -6.7% (delays Q2 filings, cut to Sell at Oppenheimer), ASML -7.3% (down on NSM and KLIC warnings), MCIP -5.4% (cut to Underperform from Neutral at CSFB), NFLX -4% (Blockbuster launches online DVD service), SAP -3.9%.... Under $3: WVCM -12%.
  • Gapping Down aktsiad siis enamus Ciscoca seotud: JNPR, PMCS, BRCM, lisaks oodata miinuses avanemist ka JBL, SLR, RBAK jne.
  • Meie NVDA treidist,

    CSCO lõi kogu turu alla ning NVDA on ka jälle umbes samas kohas, kust meie ostma hakkasime. Watch and see olukord. Üldiselt usun, et põrkestsenaarium on ikka veel jõus. 10.10 1st spprt.

  • Treasury Budget -$69.2 bln vs -$60.5 bln consensus
    Oil spikes to test $45.00... $44.95 +0.43... new session high $45.00

    Turg näib kogu seda jama üsna hästi seedivat, kõik halb on justkui praegustes tasemetes juba sees ja siirdutakse taas katsele uusi päeva tippe teha ...
  • Futuuridelt uued päeva tipud, sealjuures Dow oma ka plussis - viimane tund alanud ...
  • Võib lugeda heaks päevaks - Cisco (CSCO) verevalamise peale enamuse miinusest kustutamine on saavutus pullidele.

    Tundub ühtlasi, et suured kalad on peale FEDi uudist ostupoolel. Väike positiivne signaal järgmisteks päevadeks.
  • Pooljuhte kajastav indeks SOX lõpetas päeva enam kui 5% miinuses. Cisco (CSCO) ning National Semiconductori (NSM), kui suurte tegijate kesised tulevikuväljavaated kiskusid alla kogu sektori ning päeva alguse põhjadest eriti kosuda ei suudetudki. Õli valasid tulle ka suhteliselt väikese semi equipmendi tootja Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) langetatud prognoosid. Huvitava faktina veel see, et täpselt aasta tagasi olime praktiliselt samas kohas - 370p kohal.
  • CISCO=FIASCO ,väikeaktsionäri jaoks?!Tehingutasu neelab kasumi,mis pörkamisel tekib.
  • //the tick counter is quite the trick... like the wick on candlestick... very slick... don't say ick... just point and click for new trading tick... don't a hick and call me mick... this tick trick is a gift from St. Nick... need a pen - use a Bic to tally your + ticks, hope this didn't make you sick... wait there is something on my neck - it's a tick...//

    fiktiivne Eminemi trading räpp

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