Börsipäev 26. november

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  • Rev Shark:

    Traders Look to Feast on Rally Leftovers
    "'Frugal' is such an ugly word."

    -- Mrs. RevShark

    In the retail industry today is known as Black Friday. It is the kickoff of the holiday gift buying season and one of the busiest shopping days of the year. In the stock market, the day after Thanksgiving is a half-day of trading and has a history of unusual action. Many folks are in a "shopping mood" and still basking in the positive glow of the Thanksgiving holiday. That tends to spill over into the stock market and helps create an upbeat atmosphere for the bulls.

    The bears aren't stupid. They understand the psychology at work and many are inclined to simply stand aside and let the overly emotional bulls do their thing. On a day like this the market can be easily pushed around in thin trading and it's usually the bulls that do the pushing.

    The trading in the days prior to Thanksgiving has been very good for the bulls, particularly in the smaller-cap stocks. The major indices really have not reflected the very strong momentum in a large number of stocks. Unfortunately, as many of us learned from our feast yesterday, overindulgence usually carries a price. The price in this case is that many stocks are quite extended now and not offering the most attractive entry points.

    Traders use a variety of ways to judge if the market is extended or overbought. Some use complex technical indicators such as the ARMS index, other use things such as sentiment and volatility indices, and the fundamentalists look at valuation.

    I tend to focus on individual stock setups. My feelings about whether the market is extended depends on the state of the hundreds of individual stocks I consider on a daily basis. My watch list of stocks this morning contains many that are already above their ideal entry points so I'll be a bit more wary today in making new buys.

    However, keep in mind that there is some very strong momentum out there and typically it does not die easily. The folks who missed it are waiting for a chance to enter and quite often it doesn't take much of a dip to entice them to put some cash to work.

    Overall it should be a tricky day of trading but if you are prepared to move very quickly I expect there will be some good short-term opportunities.

    In the early going we have a very slight positive bias even though stocks overseas are under pressure because of continued concerns about the weak dollar. Mr. Bean, an economist at the Bank of England (I believe he is a different Mr. Bean than the comedian), believes the dollar is likely to fall further. Crude oil is also inching up and exerting a bit of pressure.



  • Üks inst. researchi firma kirjutab täna hommikul nii:

    "....The positions that strike us as the most interesting are 1) GOOG - the 12.4MM shares short represents a 35% M/M increase and a record high level for absolute short interest. 2 ) NILE - the 1.8MM shares short represents a 63% M/M increase and a record high level for absolute short interest. 3) HOMS - the 1.7MM shares short represents a 19% M/M decrease and a two-year low in absolute short interest. 4) CNET - absolute short interest fell 13% M/M, continuing a four-month trend of declining short interest...."

  • Gapping Up

    UTHR +7% (late Wed, co announced FDA approval, Rodman & Renshaw raise tgt to $60), VDSI +18% (momentum from 22% move on Wed), BIVN +13.4% (highlighted in BusinessWeek), SKS +5.7% (highlighted in BusinessWeek), OSTK +1.7% (CEO on CNBC).... Recent momentum stocks keep running: MDKI +7%, ANLT +7%, LMIA +5.4%... Under $3: AATK +15%, SRXA +14%, VRSO +11%, NENG +8%, GIGM +7%.

    Gapping Down

    GNTA -21% (disappointing clinical data), TASR -6% (Claims over Tasers' safety are challenged - NY Times), LEXR -5% (files shelf registration), NSTK -3.2% (shelf registration), INGP -2.1% (Merrill downgrade).

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