Börsipäev 6. jaanuar

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  • Rev Shark enne töötute numbreid:

    "There are two ways of meeting difficulties: you alter the difficulties or you alter yourself meeting them."

    -- Phyllis Bottome

    2005 has certainly proven to be a difficult year for the bulls so far. We have had three days of trading, and three days of poor action. It has been the poorest action since June, when the indices went into a steep dive. So how do we proceed from here?

    As Bottome so deftly states in the quote above, we have a choice when dealing with difficulty. We can either try to change the difficulty itself (in this case the market), or we can work to change our thinking.

    None of us is going to have much success trying to change the market. It is going to do whatever it chooses and we are powerless to alter the way it acts. That sounds pretty obvious but there are still many market participants who attempt to impose their hopes and desires on the market. They are convinced that their logic is so compelling that the market has no choice but to act as they think it should. The reality is that there are few beasts as contrary as the market and trying to impose our thinking on it is doomed to result in some pain.

    The correct approach for dealing with market difficulties is to change our thinking. For the most part that simply means respecting the fact that the market may do things that some illogical to us. Most of us develop some sort of thesis about how the market is going to act, which is a good idea because it gives us some structure in which to operate, but we get in trouble when we refuse to change our thinking when difficulties arise.

    The first three days of 2005 have proven to be a good illustration. Many market participants (including this verbose commentator), where looking for seasonal strength and cash inflows to at least hold the market steady. That has not been the case and momentum favorites and small-cap stocks have been slammed as profit taking kicked into high gear.

    Rather than insist that the market recognize our thinking about what will serve as potential upside drivers, we know have to consider that our thinking was incorrect and be prepared for further fallout. That simply means being aware of the possibility and acting with caution until there are signs that seasonal strength may kick in.

    I made the mistake of letting my usual defensiveness in protecting profits slip a little as the new year started. I gave too much weight to the possibility of seasonal strength and let some of my holdings dip further than I should have. Rather than insist that I am still correct about seasonal strength, which I think I am, I have to respect the market action and not let things slip any further.

    I continue to think we have a good bounce on the way and that anticipation of some decent fourth-quarter earnings reports will help out, but the market action so far does not bear that out. Perhaps this is just a bout of deferred profit taking but until we see otherwise the burden of proof is on the bulls.

    The market is showing a positive bias in the early going, which has not been a good way to start out recently. Asian markets were mixed overnight but Europe is seeing some upside action in financials and telecom.

    We have weekly unemployment claims on the agenda this morning and retail same-store sales reports will be rolling in as well.

  • Rev Shark peale töötute numbreid:

    Weekly unemployment claims jumped to 364,000 vs. consensus of 331,000 and 321,000 last week. The early indications have ticked down slightly on the news but the bulls are still showing positive inclinations.

    As I noted yesterday the market has a better chance of producing a good bounce if we open weak and the move starts later in the day. Early strength invites sellers, not more buyers.

    There are some individual stocks, particularly small-caps that have been hit very hard over the last three days, that are getting into the 'value' buyers range and may find some support. This is a particularly good time to refine your watch lists of favorite stocks.

    The premarket action on my screens is very quiet as market participants look a bit weary after three days of downtrending action. Don't let your attention slip here we are due for some more surprises.

  • Miks see reklaam keset graafikut peab olema?
  • "...As I noted yesterday the market has a better chance of producing a good bounce if we open weak and the move starts later in the day. Early strength invites sellers, not more buyers..."

    Kuldsed sõnad. Ma kardan, et hetkel on päris palju allapoole riski (mis muidugi ei tähenda, et põrge ei või tulla). Kuubikud ei suutnud eile trendi hoida päeva lõpuks.


  • Gapping Up

    Retailers up on strong Dec comps/guidance: ANN +8.1%, CHS +7%, JOSB +5.4%.... Other News: WWCA +20% (Alltel in talks to buy WWCA - NY Times), NGPS +5.2% (gets order for additional receivers from Raytheon), SRTI +19% (guides higher), WGAT +9.2% (MOT announces Ojo Personal Videophone, co-developed by WGAT), KVHI +7.8% (Directv announces Total Choice Mobile using KVHI's antenna), TIVO +7.7% (partners with MSFT, SNIC, and AMD for TiVoToGo), CYBX +7.5% (First Albany upgrade; note stock has high short interest), OTEX +7.3% (raises guidance), BEAV +6% (announces $125 mln in new program awards), SCHN +4.6% (reports NovQ), TELK +4.4% (added to JP Morgan's Focus List, called best biotech idea for 2005), ELX +2.3% (Smith Barney upgrade after co guide shigher)... Stem cell stocks are strong again: ASTM +8.3%, GERN +5.1%, STEM +2%.... Under $3: VITX +106% (merger partner granted fast track designation for HIV drug), ONT +65% (technology selected by XMSR), CYTR +17% (positive clinical data), ACTU +12% (guides above consensus), TRPH +9% (chosen by Sharp for LCD TVs), AVAN +8.5% (gets $2 mln milestone pmt from GlaxoSmithKline), SVNT +6.9% (announces exclusive marketing collaboration in Germany for Soltamox), ALTH +6.8% (expands Enrich trial into Europe).

    Gapping Down

    Retailers down on disappointing Dec comps/guidance: JILL -12%, CPWM -7.4%, CHRS -5.8%, ACMR -4.3%, SBUX -3.5%, URBN -2.3%... Other News: OSTE -11.4% (takes an impairment charge in Q4, revises guidance), AGIX -8.3% (receives informal inquiries by the SEC and NASD), SYMC -3.2% (started with an Underweight at Morgan Stanley; CSFB downgrade), VRTS -2.6% (in sympathy with SYMC), CHKP -2.2% (started with an Underweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $17), SIRI -2.1%.

  • Tony Dwyer, Chief Market Strategist FTN Midwest Research oma klientidele täna hommikul:

    "...We know we are early, but would rather add exposure as prices weaken. To be clear, if we were going to add $100 to equity positions in total, we would add $25-30 here. Once the turn comes, much like last August, folks will go from not wanting to buy because prices could weaken further; to not wanting to buy because they have already bounced..."

    Jeff DeGraaf Lehmanist oma klientidele:

    "...Yesterday's price action generated 2 fresh breakoutsand 55 fresh breakdowns. Volume alerts were alsoskewed to the downside, though not as overwhelmingly.Where negative volume appeared more prolific was in semi-equipment names, a host of which we have included in today's piece. Though the last 3 days have been trying for bulls, the 10-day down volume has not reached levels consistent with previous low points in equities. We don't expect that to happen here, again mostly due to seasonal strength..."


  • Kui vaadata QQQQ intraday graafikut, siis hetkel on suht low risk entry point. Stop päeva low kanti.


  • Keegi suur ostis veidi aega tagasi 300K Russell 2000 IWM-i. See on peale 3 päeva kestnud rasket müügipoolt. Kerge muutus sentimentis.

  • Citigroup (C) on asi, mida vist paljud hetkel jälgivad. AG Edwards nimetas aktsia on Top Pickiks 2005. aastaks. Nagu graafikult näha, siis $49 taseme murdmine oleks breakout.

  • Turu tervis (tõusjad/ langejad; tõusukäive / languskäive) on täna selle aasta parim. Vähemalt seni.
  • Internetisektor üritab eesotsas Ebay-ga (-3.3%) turgu alla tirida, seni veel enam-vähem püsitakse.
  • Veel veidi ja pullid kaotavad lootuse täna mingit rallit näha.

  • Turu tervis küll viimase müügisurve ajal halvenes, kuid päris ära ei kukkunud, praegu ka päris tugev. See hea märk kosumise jaoks, eelmistel päevadel oli tervis päev läbi väga nõrk.

    Vaata siin - market internals.

  • Apple Computer-AAPL iPods being used by radiologists to store images-eWeek
    Two radiologists have developed software, called OsiriX, that displays and manipulates complex medical images on AAPL's iPods. Such medical images are increasingly important in diagnosing everything from cancer to heart disease to sports injuries.

    iPod on nyyd siis ka medical device!


  • The End of the Selloff Is at Hand

    By James J. Cramer

    GERQY'S (GOOG-EBAY-RIMM-QCOM-YHOO) getting killed today. Only Qualcomm (QCOM) is rallying. In fact, the whole Fast and Furious bunch remains under severe pressure.

    And I love it.

    This selloff, this massive capitulation in these, the most loved stocks, is what must happen before we can get a real bottom. At the end of all of the vicious selloffs in bull markets, they take out the best stocks and shoot them.

    Understand I know that the "best" is relative. And I thank Bill Miller for explaining for the umpteenth time about the impossibility of valuing these wild growth stocks, the ones that are shooting the lights out, the ones I used to call the Red Hots.

    But you know that when they are being slaughtered, we are far closer to the end of the selloff than the beginning. These are lights-at-the-end-of-the-selloff-tunnel stocks and they are saying, relax, get long, we are almost out of selloff hell.


  • Hmm, suured momentum-playd on üks esimesi gruppe kust raha välja läheb, seega ei saa Crameriga päris nõus olla. Aga eks ta ole rahvamees ka :)

    NB! Homme kell 15.30 meie aja järgi üks viimase aja olulisemaid makroandmeid - detsembri tööjõutururaport. Annab börsipäevale alguseks suuna.
  • ainult neli päeva punast ja juba sonitakse mingist bottomist
    vaadake näiteks seda või seda pilti. Kas see on kellegi meelest massive capitulation setup?
  • hoidke shift klahv all kui lingi peal klikkate või tehke copy-paste

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