Börsipäev 16-17. veebruar

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  • Cody Willard:

    When Is a Trend the Real Thing?
    2/16/05 8:34 AM ET

    I believe we are on an irreversible trend toward more freedom and democracy -- but that could change.

    -- Dan Quayle

    Trends, trends, trends. Are we in an uptrend since late January? Or are we in a downtrend since late December? Or is this an uptrend since late summer? Or is this a range-bound Nazz since late 2003? Or perhaps this is a new bull market that's in an uptrend since early 2003? Maybe this a vicious long rally trend in a new bear market that started in 2000?

    We could go back even further to come up with new so-called trends that we could fit the market's patterns into to conform the market to whatever thesis we happen to be subscribing to today. I always have such a hard time buying into the concept of reading market "trends," because so much of it is subjective based upon one's time frame, starting point and even one's ability to draw lines from one spot to another.

    This opening post isn't an attack on technical analysis in general, but this is simply meant to point out how subjective and arbitrary finding "trends" in the market can be. I, for one, have noted how incessant the moves in the Nazz have been in the last couple years, making "trends", at least those measured in weeks, perhaps easier and more obvious to spot.

    Regardless, I'll let those who specialize in trend-spotting try to determine whether this latest bounce from the January lows is a burgeoning rally or not. I continue to pick and choose my spots with individual stocks. I've trimmed down some of my trading positions this week and have even put on a short or two -- some of these shorts are against some calls I own that I have big gains in. (Type in "Cody" and "gamma" in the search box for more on that approach.) But I've also nibbled further on and/or let some big positions run, for example in Tekelec (TKLC:Nasdaq), which I had in some ways almost hoped would get hit after its recent earnings report so that I could go in and load up in super size.

    The futures a looking a little bit soggy as we head into hump day. All eyes will be on Greenspan, and whatever the market does today, everyone will say it was a result of his testimony.

    Net long TKLC

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    MLNM +4.3% (WSJ lists as a potential takeover target), KO +2% (reports Q4 results), IMMR +7.8% (announces court-ordered payment from Sony), NYER +7.5% (reported DecQ results mid-day yesterday), PLAB +5.9% (beats by $0.06), ITRI +4.9% (reports Q4; First Albany upgrade), AQNT +4% (reports Q4), DHI +2.4%.... Under $3: AFOP +10%.

    Gapping Down

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: ADBL -30% (also multiple downgrades), NTAP -12.4% (down in sympathy: XRTX -4.1%), LF -10.9%, AGIX -8.7%, CECO -4.6% (also downgraded at William Blair and JP Morgan), EYET -4.4%.... Other News: MAMA -6% (profit taking after 36% move yesterday), ALTI -5% (continues yesterday's 15% drop), PIXR -3.7% (downgraded to Sell at BofA), SINA -3.4% (class action suits announced), TEVA -2.1%, TYC -1.7% (names new CFO).... Under $3: BOSC -18.5%, CHRD -13% (delays 10-Q filing).
  • Greenspani jutu peale esimene samm alla, nüüd päris tublisti üles.
  • MAMA halted, eilse kuulujutu taga siis ehk midagi ikka oli.
  • MAMA Mamma.com announces unable to reach agreement with auditor

    That must hurt.
  • Eilse liikumisega püüti ikka kõvasti rumalat raha sisse. Kuidagi kummaline ajastus igatahes.
  • MAMA -30% tänasega. SEC võiks eilseid kuulujutu levitajaid veidi uurida.
  • Homme uudised, ilmselt positsioneeritakse enne seda.
  • Dendreon (DNDN)'i puhul on pigem tegemist spekuleerimisega kui sellega, et keegi midagi kindlat teab. Data võib homme tulla, kuid võib ka juhtuda, et alles Laupäeval. Esmaspäeval on turud suletud.

    Kui avaldatav 9901 data on positiivne (tugev survival ja madal p-value), siis võib Provenge olla turul juba 2006. alguses. Kui ei, siis ootab eest ilmselt 20% kukkumine ning turul ollakse 2007.

    Ma üldiselt usun, et Provenge töötab, kuid küsimus on vaid milline trial näitab piisavalt head data, et see FDA ette viia.

    long DNDN,

  • Ja nii ongi...

    Dendreoni Provenge näitas 4-5 kuud paremat suremusdatat, mida võib pidada päris heaks tulemuseks. Oluline samm FDA approvalile lähemale!

  • Raisio teatas eile, et ostab tagasi kuni 5% oma aktsiatest, investoritele paistab see meeldivat.
  • Mul vist AMCC ga halb sisenemine :(, kas selle olukord ca kahe nädala perspektiivis näib väga jube? Teadjamad võiks nõu anda.
  • Volatiilsus on viimastel päevadel edasi kukkunud. Kristjan ehk täpsustaksid oma ideed volatiilsuse tõusule panustamisest. Kuidas Traderis VIX futuure näeb?
  • Ram, sümbol VBI ja väärtpaberi tüüp futuur.

    Turg on olnud tugev ja volatiilsus kukkunud tõesti. Kuid mul siin veidi pikem nägemus nagunii (3-4 nädalat).
  • EELN E-LOAN beats by $0.02; guides for Y05 (2.91 )

    Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.02 per share, $0.02 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.00); revenues rose 36.4% year/year to $36.2 mln vs the $34.8 mln consensus. Company issues upside guidance for Y05 (Dec), sees EPS of $0.13 vs. Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.09 on revs $165 mln, consensus $155.99 mln.

    päris hea. sentimentile.

  • Cody Willard:

    Those Quietly Screaming Semis
    2/17/05 8:32 AM ET

    Hannibal Lecter: And what did you see, Clarice? What did you see? Clarice Starling: Lambs. The lambs were screaming.

    Tech, and especially the semis, have been utterly on fire of late. In the last two to three weeks:

    • The Philadelphia semiconductor index (SOX) is up more than 10%
    • Texas Instruments is up more than 20%
    • Intel is up more than 10%
    • KLA-Tencor is up more than 15%
    • nVidia is up nearly 30%
    • Even ne'er do well Conexant is up nearly 25%.

    There's been some commentary about these moves, but allow me to add some perspective -- Holy cow! Those are some serious rallies.

    It wasn't too long ago that I was hearing from all the permabears and shorts that "all rallies" will be sold. As a matter of fact, it was about two or three weeks ago that my inbox was full of declarations of doom, especially for the tech and semi stocks. In some sense, of course, rallies are always sold, and the current rally in these names will come to an end at some point. But pops like this go to show you that rallies can materialize out of thin air and go further, faster than anyone thought possible. (The same can be said of selloffs, by the way).

    All of which begs the question: Was there a catalyst for these big moves in these semis? Not really. The shorts have been active in these names since the bottom last summer, leaning on them on weakness and fighting any mini-rallies. In fact, this was one of the few areas where the shorts never really gave up in anticipation of the January effect that never came.

    The shorts have now been squeezing themselves out and the momentum longs have been piling in. I, for one, am going to step back and do a little trimming and/or hedging in these names today. Moves like this might go faster, further than we ever expect, but as I noted above, they also can come unwound quickly.

    The futures are really pretty flat this morning as they have been wont to do of late (yet another reality that could be a called a "trend"). I'll be keeping a keen eye on the momentum favorites like Network Appliances and Apple as well as the semis. You might even call them "tells" if such were your style.

    Long INTC calls, KLAC, NVDA calls, AAPL, AAPL calls

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Saldo lugejate seas saab Oliver küll kõva respecti. Kui ma ei eksi, siis soovitas ta seal DNDN-i 6.91 pealt ja vaevalt paar päeva hiljem on aktsia juba pea 9. (Y)

  • Samal teemal: kuidas tundub kas DNDN-i hoog on raugenud?
  • Lõpetasin just E-Loani CC kuulamise. Huvi tekitas "new big advertising campaign", mis siis teises kvartalis pidi alguse saama. Lisaks siis veel oldi üpris kitsid sõnadega partnerlusega eBay kohta(mis on ju iseenesest mõistetav), aga mulle jäi tunne, et sellest oodatakse ikkagi päris-päris palju.

    Ja nagu Bettie siin eelnevalt ütles, mõjub tulemuste ületamine sentimendile kindlasti hästi. Ise ei oleks miljoni dollari suurust puhastulu 4. veerandi jaoks ennustanud. Minu arust igati korralikud+ tulemused, kaasaarvatud guidance.
  • TKLC TEKELEC accounting for Santera unit is correct as previously reported; co to Q4 results on Feb 24

    Co announced that it has concluded its discussions with the SEC regarding the accounting for the acquisition of the Company's majority interest in its Santera subsidiary and the allocation of Santera's profits and losses between Tekelec and Santera's minority shareholders following the acquisition. The discussions resulted in no changes to the Company's prior accounting for the Santera acquisition, and Tekelec's previously issued financial statements remain correct as presented.

    Reaktsioon mõistagi positiivne, kuna SEC'i risk on kadunud. Minu jaoks oli selline lahendus üsna oodatud, headline risk oli märksa suurem kui tegelikkus. Kuna osaliselt avaldatud tulemused andsid üsna positiivseid vihjeid, siis ootaks ostusurvet lõplike tulemuste eel. Eriti positiivne oli firma backlog, mis annab kindlust tuleviku suhtes.

  • Valdavalt positiivset hilisõhtut täiendas omalt poolt ka Salesforce.com (CRM, internetipõhisest tarkvarast loe siit). Aastataguse perioodiga võrreldes kasvas firma käive 81,4% $54,6 miljonile (oodati $52,5). Kasumiks aktsia kohta kujunes 3 senti, mis ületas oodatut 1 sendiga. Kergitati Y06 (jaan) prognoose ning käesoleva kvartali prognoosid tulid põhimõtteliselt in-line. Aktsia kerkis seejuures järelturul ligikaudu 7% plussi.

    Jaanuar kujunes ühltasi firma senini kõige edukamaks kuuks uute kasutajate lisandumise poolest. Kogu kvartalis saadi juurde 32000 uut kasutajat, mis QoQ baasil 16% suurenemist tähendab. Uutest olulisematest klientidest nimetati Business Objects'it (BOBJ), Sun Microsystems'it (SUNW), Xerox'it (XRX) ning Kellogg'it (K).

  • CRM short interest 41% /float. Veel üks Panera?
  • NYSE aktsiatel on optsioonide likviidsus üsna halb, seega CRM straddle veidi raskem.
  • Pidasin silmas aktsia võimalikku short squeeze.
  • CRM ongi üks suur short squeeze, kui valuatsiooni arvestada. Kasvumäära muutmine ühe protsendi võrra analüütiku exceli tabelis muudaks "õiglast" väärtust ilmselt kordades.
  • Eks ta nii ole, aga tuleb meelde aeg mil keegi ei osanud oodata SIRI-le tänast 6,.. targetit.
  • Mida see Dendreoni (DNDN) Conference Call endast võib kujutada (ja kaasa tuua)?
  • Mida kõik juhtub 1 päev peale optsioonireedet:

    Shanda Interactive (SNDA) teatas, et nad on omandanud 19.5% osaluse Sina.com'is (SINA), viimane on selle peale pea 20% plussis, kaupleb eelturul $30 kohal.

    SINA siis oli üsna edukas straddle kandidaat ning juhul kui selline liikumine oleks tulnud reedel, maksaksid vahepeal juba nulli jõudnud $25 callid üle $5.00 ...

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