Börsipäev 24. veebruar

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  • Rev Shark:

    You're a Nimble Trader; They're Not
    2/24/05 8:26 AM ET

    "Adaptability is not imitation. It means power of resistance and assimilation."

    -- Mahatma Gandhi

    The great advantage that small individual investors have over institutions and funds is the ability to adapt quickly to changing market conditions. Most individual investors, even those holding thinly traded stocks, are capable of moving in and out of the market in the blink of an eye.

    This ability is a huge advantage that many investors fail to take advantage of. Instead they attempt to handle their portfolio as if it were some giant mutual fund that can't move fast without affecting the price of stocks. One of the reasons big funds and institutional investors use a buy-and-hold strategy is because they have no choice; they can't easily sell millions of shares one day and buy them back the next. Individuals can, and if they learn to do it effectively they can increase their returns tremendously.

    Unfortunately Wall Street has pounded into individual investors that they are always better off holding on to their positions. They warn about transaction costs, taxes and the inability to accurately time the market to scare investors into always staying invested.

    What they fail to acknowledge is that selling is an extremely cheap form of insurance available only to small investors. If you are wrong you can always buy back what you sold and the cost can be considered an insurance premium.

    I've availed myself of this form of insurance in the past few days. I'm very concerned about the market and have moved into an extremely high level of cash. I may be wrong and am just being overly cautious, but I'm comfortable that I can easily add substantial long exposure should market conditions turn out to be better than I think.

    If I plan carefully and prepare a list of buy candidates I can put a big part of my portfolios back to work quickly should I decide my caution is unwarranted. If I am correct about the market having more downside, the payoff is huge. Not only do I avoid incurring losses in the short term but I have a full load of cash to put to work at lower levels once there is some bottoming action.

    The advantage this gives me over a buy-and-hold investment approach is tremendous. A downtrend takes a huge toll on investors who sit by idly. Not only do they have to make up the losses they incur but they have limited buying power when real bargains do emerge.

    Don't squander your flexibility as a small investor. It is a huge advantage but Wall Street will try to convince you otherwise.

    We have a shaky start this morning. The bounce yesterday was unconvincing in many respects including volume and leadership. The Nasdaq was particularly disappointing and the poor action in semiconductors was a warning sign. One of the leaders yesterday, Google (GOOG:Nasdaq) is being slammed this morning on a downgrade. That is likely to affect the Internet sector, which struggled yesterday. Oil is up and overseas markets are mixed. We have weekly unemployment numbers today, which should produce a jiggle or two. Be careful out there.

    Gary B. Smith:


  • Gapping Up

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: DECK +9.3%, APPB +5%, PRST +8.9%, SERO +3.4%, ESLR +2.9%.... Other News: TIVO +8.7% (continues yesterday's 18% move on takeover speculation), IRIX +7.1% (clinical data), SOSA +5%, BOBJ +3.2%, AV +3.1% (completes credit facility; reduces debt), SYMC +3% (co and CSC to offer managed security services).... Under $3: MCEL +52% (to Power Laptop with Hydrogen Energy System at Intel Developer Forum).

    Gapping Down

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: FWHT -23% (also multiple downgrades; down in sympathy: ASKJ -6.7%, GRU -6.4%, GOOG -5.8% (also RBC downgrade), INCX -5.4%, YHOO -5.4% (also RBC downgrade), TZOO -3.7%, MAMA -2.4%, VCLK -4.2%), PRX -8.7%, DYN -6.9%, ALTI -3.3%, SGMS -2.7%.
  • Eile liikusid turul kuuldused, et Apple (AAPL) võib olla huvitatud TiVo'st (TIVO). Aktsia kerkis eile seepeale pea 20%. Täna avaneti taas üle 10% võrra kõrgemalt. Tundub, et investorid võtavad kuulujuttu päris tõsiselt, samas pigistatakse ka shorte tugevalt ... squeeze!

    Kumbagi firma esindajad ei ole kuuldusi kommenteerinud.
  • TIVO TiVo: Apple's commentary suggests co has no interest in acquiring TIVO - Smith Barney (4.74 +0.36)

    Smith Barney notes that TIVO shares are up sharply over the last couple of days on reports that AAPL may consider acquiring TIVO. Firm views this supposition as contradictory to commentary from their recent meeting with members of AAPL's senior mgmt. Firm says AAPL's mgmt indicated it expects the long-term trend for DVR appears to be headed toward commodity status, and firm believes AAPL wants to stay focused on selling select proven products. Based on AAPL's commentary, firm strongly believes that AAPL has no interest in acquiring TIVO. Maintains Sell rating and $3.50 price target.

    Veidi see spekulatsioone vaigistas.
  • Täna õhtul annab lõplikud tulemused TKLC, varem jäid puudu EPSi numbrid ja täpsemad tulevikuprognoosid, kuigi nii mõndagi võis välja lugeda käibe- ja orderite numbritest. Kuigi tavaliselt soovitaksin tulemuste eel positsiooni sulgeda, jätan seekord lahti, kuna määramatus on tavapärasest väiksem.
    Ettevõte teatas täna hommikul ka 5-aastasest lepingust SBC -ga, mille koguväärtuseks hindas üks analüüsimaja $200-$300 mln. Üsna oluline tehing tuleviku seisukohalt.
  • TKLC TEKELEC reports in line EPS of $0.17 ex items (19.69 +0.64)

    Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.17 per share ex items, in line with the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.17; revenues rose 54.5% year/year to $115.9 mln vs the $115.7 mln consensus. Company issues upside guidance for Q1 (Mar), sees EPS of revs of $114.0-$117.0 mln vs consensus of $113.22. Co sees Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.07-0.09 per share.

    Aktsia järelturul pisut all, ilmselt Q1 EPS peale. Samas, GAAP pole võrreldav analüütikute non-GAAP ootusega.

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