Börsipäev 01. märts - pooljuhid vs. internet

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • LHV Pro all olev idee sai pos. kommentaari analüütikult:

    TKLC TEKELEC upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James; tgt $22 (16.98 )

    Raymond James upgrades TKLC to Outperform from Mkt Perform on valuation. While the co is facing the potential maturation of its U.S. signaling mkt in 2006, firm believes the co's competitive position is improving in signaling globally and in VoIP, and that growth opportunities are very healthy in VoIP.
  • Rev Shark:

    Contemplating Market's Positives and Negatives
    3/1/05 8:52 AM ET

    Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.

    -- Voltaire

    We can never be certain about what the market is going to do, but there are times when it is particularly difficult to anticipate what may occur. This is such a time. There are both positives and negatives to consider that leave us contemplating a particularly muddled situation.

    Let's consider the negatives first. The most significant is that upside leadership is mostly in stocks that aren't indicative of future strength in a broader sector of the market. The main leaders recently have been oils, homebuilders and metals and mining. These are not groups that reflect a strong belief in a booming economy. Strength in oil is particularly bad leadership since the only group that benefits from higher energy prices are energy-related stocks.

    Another negative to contemplate is that the market has had more technical distribution than accumulation in recent days. This simply means we have been going up on light volume and going down on higher volume. The buying interest is not very vigorous outside of the defensive groups mentioned above, and that is making it very hard to gain traction.

    A third problem with the market is the lagging status of the Nasdaq. This is due in part to the fact that the Nasdaq is dominated by technology and biotechnology and has not benefited from the rally in the defensive groups that make up a bigger portion of the S&P 500 and Dow. In some ways the Nasdaq is a better indication of market health, of lack thereof, than others. The fact that it is struggling tells us we can't let strength in oils and steels fool us into believing that things are healthier than they really are.

    On the positive side of the ledger is fairly constructive technical patterns in both the S&P 500 and Dow. Both indices are just slightly off multiple-year highs and the bulls see the possibility of an inverse head-and-shoulders or a cup-and-handle pattern setting up.

    There is significant support and little negative from a technical standpoint. The problem is the same one mentioned above. This strength is largely a product of strength in defensive groups such as oils and cyclicals. They can continue to drive the market higher, but it comes at a cost to the broader market.

    Another positive is the signs of rotation into semiconductors. The chips have been showing some recent signs of life and if money starts rotating out of groups such as oils and into technology, that would be a positive. The best thing that could happen to the bulls right now is if the Nasdaq started showing some relative strength and technology stocks took on a leadership role.

    As noted, I've been taking a very defensive posture recently. I'm holding a high level of cash and keeping my trades on a tight leash. I'm hopeful that rotation into technology will play out, but I want to see some firm evidence of that before embracing the idea further. So for now I continue with a careful approach and a slightly bearish market posture.

    In the early going we have some strength due to bullish comments from J.P. Morgan about the semiconductor sector and Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) in particular. Homebuilders also have some positive analyst comments. Oil is down slightly and that is helping matters as well.

    It promises to be a tricky trading environment, so be careful out there.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    ELN +4.6% and BIIB +3.4% bounce a bit on some positive analyst comments.... SIRI +5.5% (UBS upgrade; also, Volvo now offering service), XMSR +4.8% (multiple upgrades following price increase), COGT +4.6% (announces orders), SONS +4.6% (Smith Barney upgrade), CATG +3.5%, ISON +3.4% (provides NeutroTest update), PLMO +3.1% (Treo 650 may debut earlier than expected at Verizon - Stanford), TKLC +3.1% (Raymond James upgrade), GETI +2.9% (declares $31/sh special dividend), GRU +2.6% (announces Answers.com traffic growth), INTC +1.8% (JP Morgan upgrade), BLUE +33% (to be acquired by private co), QUIN +23% (to merge with DFIB), DEPO +11.3% (receives FDA approvable letter), LTON +11% (beat by $0.05, guides for rev growth).

    Gapping Down

    INCX -38% (repors Q4; guides; Stanford lowers target to $5 from $7), OVTI -8.8% (reports JanQ; Jefferies downgrade), SHOO -10.6% (beats by a penny, guides below consensus), POTP -10.4%, STSI -8% (sells stock to investors), ISIS -6.4% (reports Q4), MMC -6% (reports Q4; cuts dividend by 50%), GLNG -4.5% (reports Q4), FRO -3.4%.... Under $3: DFIB -13% (to merge with QUIN), CNR -12% (reports Q4), CHTR -7.1% (reports Q4).

  • Turg tundubki päris tugev, Avalöögis maintud pooljuhid (SMH) koguni pea +3% plusspoolel. Nafta seevastu -2% miinuspoolel (samuti toeks aktsiatele).
  • Pooljuhtide tugevuse põhjus peitub peamiselt JP Morgani reitingutõstmistes. Mäletatavasti suutsid ka veebruari alguses analüütikute ennustused saabuvatest põhjadest pooljuhte tublisti toetada. Tundub, et sellist sorti kindlus on endiselt see, mida häguse tulevikuga sektor vajab.

    JP Morgan upgrades Fairchild Semi (FCS), On Semi (ONNN), Intel (INTC) and Cypress Semi (CY) to Overweight from Neutral; upgrades Natianal Semi (NSM) and Texas Instruments (TXN) to Neutral from Underweight. Firm also raises their semiconductor stance to bullish from neutral as several leading indicators of the industry, such as gross margins, utilization rates, earnings estimates and YoY growth, are bottoming and should begin to improve in 2Q05 to result in a mild upturn in 2006.

  • LHV Pro all üks uus kauplemisidee, ka FLIRi sai täna üsna vastupanutaseme juurest võtta.
  • Google (GOOG) ja kogu netisektor (HHH) on üllatavalt nõrk tänase tõusu taustal. Turu tugevust näitaks see, kui pooljuhid ja netisektor ralliks samal päeval.
  • Huvitav kas Google börsile tulek on internetisektori kui turgu edestava indikaatori mõju vähendanud. Pooljuhid samas ei suutnud sügisest tõusu ette prognoosida, seega vanad liidrid on ehk eemale tõugatud.
  • Vanade liidrite koha pealt hetkel isegi nõus, praegune vedur tundub olevat energia ja kõik tooraineid puudutav. Tuleb mõlemaid radaril hoida.
  • Kes viimaste päevade jooksul on jälginud Biogeni (BIIB) ümber toimuvat (ka partner ELN), siis nende aktsiate põhjade ajastamise asemel võiks vaadata hoopis Protein Design Labs (PDLI) poole. Viimane saab küll 3% Tysabri käibest, kuid siiski ei ole see nii suur ravim firma jaoks, et senist kukkumist õigustada. Põgusalt uurides leidsin analüütikuid, kelle hinnasihid on $30 paremal poolel.

    Briefing.com sai maha sellise üllitisega mõne tunni eest:

    PDLI Protein Design: PDLI due for a bounce? (14.89 -0.09)

    Feedback suggests that PDLI looks like a trading buy here. The stock has been punished 14% for its association with BIIB/ELN's MS drug. PDLI does have a solid pipeline of its own. In fact the firm recently announced that it bought ESP Pharma (private firm). The purchase brings in three marketed drugs and another four drugs under development. Management expects to be profitable next year. While the setback was disappointing, feedback suggests that it may may make sense to play the stock long for a bounce ahead of earnings (March 14). From a technical perspective, would like to see stock work back above $15.00 and hold above that level.
  • YHOO Yahoo! turns 10 today, offers free coupon for scoop of Baskin-Robbins' ice cream (32.30 )

  • Bettie, kas nüüd peaks veel enamgi PDLI poole vaatama? On punkti võrra veel alla läinud...

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