Börsipäev 28. märts - USA börsid avatakse 17.30

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Sellel nädalal algab siis kauplemine USA turul tavapärasest tund aega hiljem ehk 17.30 ja lõppeb 24.00, järgmisel nädalal keeravad ameeriklased oma kella ja harjumuspärane rütm taastub.

    Rev Shark:

    Substantial Challenges as the Week Begins
    3/28/05 8:32 AM ET

    "Don't wait until everything is just right. It will never be perfect. There will always be challenges, obstacles and less than perfect conditions. So what? Get started now. With each step you take, you will grow stronger and stronger, more and more skilled, more and more self-confident and more and more successful." -- Mark Victor Hansen

    The market always has challenges, obstacles and less-than-perfect conditions to deal with but they are times when conditions are even more adverse than usual. This is one of those times, with both fundamental and technical obstacles to contend with.

    The market's technical problems aren't particularly difficult to see. All of the major indices are in downtrends and there is little, if any, technical support other than the 200-day simple moving average. We are slightly "oversold," which simply means we have gone down faster than is reasonable and we're likely to see some sort of bounce, but make no mistake that the momentum is to the downside and there is no reason to expect a sudden reversal other than hope.

    The fundamental difficulties facing the market are equally easy to understand. The FOMC made it clear that inflationary pressures are growing and the pace of interest rate increases is likely to pick up. The market has not fully priced this in even though it has been clear for some time that it was likely to occur.

    Even though the market is supposed to be a "discounting" mechanism that looks forward many months it doesn't always do a very good job of it. That seems to be particularly true now with the market seemingly caught by surprise by the sudden focus on inflation and rates -- when there were already so many signs, such as commodity prices, pointing to impending problems.

    Although inflation and rates have taken center stage there are still significant issues with crude oil and the dollar. Last week the market came uncoupled to those influences to some extent. Crude oil was down and the dollar strong but the indices still fell. Even though the correlation was less direct there is very likely to be a continued focus on oil if it rises, and the dollar if it falls.

    So we have some substantial challenges to deal with as we start a new week. It is particularly important that we just don't throw up our hands in dismay and do nothing. We need to be proactive and take steps to cut losses and protect capital.

    When market conditions are bad, many of us are inclined to simply ignore them and do little. More often than not we pay a steep price when we fail to deal directly with a difficult situation. This is the time to be tough. If you are badly positioned take steps to correct that situation. It is amazing how much confidence you can gain when you take control of your situation, rather than sit and do nothing as you watch the market struggle.

    We have some Monday morning optimism, which always makes me distrustful. Strong opens at the start of a new week particularly in a market facing the problems this one does is an invitation for some selling. The market seldom goes straight up after a strong open on Monday.

    The dollar is strong, European markets were closed for holidays but Asia was up, oil is down and gold is down. There isn't a lot of news on the wires.



  • Dollar kosub edasi, EUR/USD juba 1.2875.

    1.2750 juures järgmine oluline tase.
  • Gapping Up

    IMMR +35% (confirms $90.7 mln judgment in patent case against Sony), MOVI +15% (Blockbuster drops bid for HLYW, speculation MOVI may become target), SDS +10% (to be acquired by private equity group), NFLX +9.6% (announces that it has over 3 mln subscribers), ANTP +6.1% (extends last week's momentum), SYBR +5.5% (extension of 30% move on Thursday), ALCO +4.9% (highlighted favorably in Barrons), MLNM +4% (to discuss full approval of Velcade), ALVR +3.5% (Barron's story), YHOO +2.4% (positive Goldman note), CHKP +2.3% (CSFB upgrade).

    Gapping Down

    LGND -18% (clinical data), SLR -10% (Bear Stearns downgrade), TIN -9% (Carl Icahn does not intend to nominate board candidates; may reduce probability that TIN is broken up; BofA downgrade), BDCO -7.7% (reports Q4), LEXR -7% (reports Q4; speculation that Toshiba award may be less than expected), HLYW -6.7% (BBI -6.5% drops bid for the co), ENWV -4.7% (5 mln share offering), TASR -3.5% (estimates cut at Morgan Keegan), SANM -3.2% (Bear Stearns downgrade), GM -1.4% (UBS downgrade).

  • LHV Pro idee CMOS sai täna hommikul upgrade pärast neljapäevast tellimust, siht $12:

    Adams Harkness upgrades CMOS to Strong Buy from Buy with a $12 tgt, saying as the co ramps its newer products and integrates NPTest, they expect renewed order growth will drive CMOS shares higher as the semiconductor and corresponding test industry regains momentum. Firm believes the current stock price represents a compelling risk/reward opportunity at 1.2x CY05E revs. With a strong product portfolio and expectations of an upturn later in 2005, they believe now is the time buy CMOS shares.

  • Kaks kommentaari Goldman Sachs'i staar-analüütikult Anthony Notolt, mis turgu täna positiivsena hoiavad:

    07:49 GOOG Google disproportionately benefits from the positive trends; 40+% appreciation potential to $265 implied value -- Goldman (181.00 ) -- Update --

    07:47 YHOO Yahoo!: Buy the shares for 30% appreciation potential -- Goldman (31.41 )

    Goldman out on Yahoo recommending investors buy the shares as 30% appreciation potential, as strong qtr, & stock repurchase activity reinforce firm's positive view. Raising 1Q05 rev, EBITDA, & Adj EPS ests to $805m, $310m, & $0.13 from $785m, $300m, & $0.12 to reflect stronger than expected trends in marketing services. Firm's higher ests are based on numerous channel checks with advertisers & media buyers that indicate stronger than expected trends in branded & con't strong trends in paid search. Reit Outperform.

    Ma usun, et e-kommerts on sektor, mida jälgivad kõik otsimaks mingisugust põhja praegusele kukkumisele. Saab näha, kas Noto suudab turu ümber pöörata. Genentech (DNA) oma Avastini uudisega paari nädala eest pakkus pullidele rõõmu vaid pooleks päevaks.

  • Positiivne on see, et turul juba otsitakse põhjusi tõusuks:
    Hearing chatter that Iraqi terrorist Zarqawi is surrounded

    Briefingus seda siis lahatud täna ning leitud, et vast ikka on uudis vale, aga turg siiski tõusmas. Lisaks veel ka nafta hinna tagasi tõmbumine, mis sai küll löögi BP tehase põlengust, aga paistab siiski täna jätkuvat. Kõigele lisaks: Nasdaq üle 2000 punkti taas.
  • Aasiast tulid taas teated maavärinatest, võimuses kohta andmed üsna erinevad, kuid paistab olevat üsna tugevate tõugetega. Infot lisaks antud lehelt. 
  • 11:56 Earthquake measuring 8.2 reported off Indonesia on same fault line as quake that caused December's deadly tsunami - CNN
  • Kõik ikka nägid, mis juhtus tsunami playdega?
  • parem kysimus: keegi ikka teenis ka nendega?
  • Vaadake täpsemalt: TAYD, ANLT, BTHS

    "Teine Laine": CLWT +19%, NGRU +14%, SDIX +7%, KNTA +1%

    Päris võimas.
  • Fit,

    teenisid need Sumatra treiderid, kellel arvuti kõrval ka seismograaf juhtus olema ;)
  • TAYDi oli mitu minutit aega osta.
  • Meie majas osteti KNTAd - oli veelgi rohkem aega.
  • CLWT 2 aastast graafikut vaadates tundub, et kui võrrelda looduskatastroofidega siis on tugev korrelatsioon. Lühikeseks müük hüppe tipus tundub kindel strateegia. Eriti veel siis kui tsunami ei tule :) Jätab ka hea tunde kui ei teeni teiste õnnetuse pealt.
  • aga kes sulle neid CLWT aktsiaid lühikeseks müümiseks laenab? ;)
  • :) mitte keegi. Nagu tõdesin just.
    Seega kas tuleb moraalsest tõkkest üle saada ja oodata mõni aeg ostmisega - eeldades, looduskatastroofid on vältimatud ja esinevad kindlalt. Või siis unustada kogu idee.

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