Börsipäev 4. mai

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  • WSJ arvates ostuaeg, :)

    The WSJ's "Long & Short" column discusses US stock mkts, saying that the economy is slowing, real wage growth is nowhere to be seen, the consumer is finally rolling over and the Fed needs to raise rates to fight inflation. Because of all that, according to the article, it's time to buy stocks. For the first time in a while, the stock mkt overall isn't looking terribly expensive. While that doesn't mean the mkt is poised to go up soon, it shouldn't go down dramatically either. The Fed tightened for the 8th time since last June yesterday, but financial conditions in the economy overall surprisingly have not become much tougher. The Goldman Sachs financial-conditions index, which attempts to measure how much stimulus there is in the economy, stands right about where it was when the Fed started raising rates. Since then, the dollar has weakened, the stock mkt is up and corporate-bond rates are down, all things that stimulate the economy. It's an unprecedented combination, says Jan Hatzius, an economist for the firm. "In some sense, the Fed hasn't achieved all that much," he says. Sure, it appears that the high price of oil has slowed the economy down. Eventually, as the Fed presses on with its rate rises, the central bank will manage to apply the brakes.

  • Juhuslik päeva mõte:
    COWN - Change Investment Opinion (Upgrade) - TEVA
    have to trust COWEN on biotech healthcare especially when they do a radical change like that
    they have been neg on TEVA i would buy it now and in size
  • 26 aastane DCF meetodit arvutada oskav Harvardi haridusega Manhattanil 42. korrusel kuubikus istuv analüütik on jumal!
  • Rev Shark:

    Key Stocks Spiff Up Their Charts
    5/4/05 8:46 AM ET

    "She was good at abstract confusion in the same way that a midget is good at being short."

    --Clive James

    The market is not pretending or acting; it really is extremely confused. The FOMC did not help matters yesterday with its mishandling of what is probably the most important document affecting the economy. It is mind-boggling that they could bungle a one-page statement so badly; in fact, there are people who have written me who don't believe it was an innocent mistake. (I, for one, don't buy these conspiracy theories.)

    The Fed succeeded in messing up the short-term trade but the big picture really isn't changed -- it is still very confused. What the bulls badly needed yesterday was for the FOMC to provide some signal that interest rate hikes may be slowing down or near the end. There wasn't anything in the statement to indicate that, and we remain in the exact same situation prior to the report. All economic data will need to be carefully evalulated to see what it says about inflation and economic growth.

    The net result is that the stock market remains in a confused state and if there is one thing that is not good for stocks, it is uncertainty. As long as we don't have insight into the pace of future interest rate hikes by the Fed we are going to be muddled.

    Despite the uncertainty there are some promising positive signs. Sentiment continues to be at quite extreme levels. Not a lot of folks have confidence in the market, and in the world of contrary opinion that is a good thing because it means there probably is a lot of cash on the sidelines.

    There also are some indications that technology and financials are taking a leadership role. Banks and tech have exhibited better relative strength lately and we are seeing better technical action in key stocks such as Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) and Broadcom (BRCM:Nasdaq). Google (GOOG:Nasdaq) broke to a new high yesterday, which indicates there are still some aggressive momentum traders out there. Even Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) has a decent-looking technical pattern.

    We certainly aren't out of the woods. Technically we are still in a trading range that commenced on April 15, and the longer we build this base the better the chances that we will rally. But it remains a very fragile environment.

    News that Kirk Kerkorian is making a bid for General Motors (GM:NYSE) is helping the early tone but I'm already hearing from folks who believe it is more an attempt at manipulation than anything else. Crude oil remains under $50, which is another positive. Overseas markets were lower. A high level of caution continues to be the proper approach.

    Long GOOG

    Gary B. Smith:

  • ERTSi eilne hoiatus on suhteliselt oluline kogu sektorile. Banc of America avaldab mõtteid sel teemal:

    09:02 ERTS What does ERTS news mean for the industry? - BofA (52.90 )

    -Update- Banc of America believes that ERTS mgmt cast a long and somewhat dark shadow over the industry with its comments about preparation for lower retail prices. Firm believes these comments will likely rattle investors in the near-term and hurt all video game stocks. Moreover, ERTS also slotted so many games in the holiday qtr that it has increased the competitive pressure in a qtr the firm once viewed as competitively wide-open. Firm says ERTS' anticipated launch schedule not only sets a very high bar for itself, but also increases the intensity for ATVI, TTWO, THQI, MWY, Ubisoft, and others. The fall holiday lineup is now more crowded than it appeared six months ago. Despite expected pressure, they continue to recommend ATVI and GME. Firm believes ATVI's guidance is achievable and its games are somewhat insulated from competition from ERTS, and they still like GME and believe the co will enjoy several near-term positive data points.
  • Gapping Up

    GM +9.5% (Tracinda to plans tender offer for up to 28 mln GM shares at $31/share; up in sympathy: F +3.5%, DCX +2.7%), RNVS +125% (positive clinical data; Piper says announcement is overwhelmingly positive; firm raises target to $32 from $19), RCI +18% (to be acquired), NYNY +17% (announces positive Indian gaming court ruling), RNAI +15% (clinical data), IMAX +8.5% (chosen by A.M.C. Theaters to install 5 theaters), SSI +5% (to be acquired; up in sympathy: SBAC +10%), NOK +2.2% (wins 3G deal with Vodafone Hungary)..... Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: UNTD +17% (also co initiates dividend with 9% yield; Piper upgrade), WMS +13%, AQNT +11%, PWER +9.2%, AOC +8%, PWER +7.4%, IACI +5.3% (up in sympathy: VCLK +6.8%, ASKJ +4%), DWSN +5% (also Raymond James upgrade), MET +4.3%, CI +3.8%, MXIM +1.8%.

    Gapping Down

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: STRA -16% (down in sympathy: APOL -4%), ERTS -11%, ZBRA -10.7%, NIKU -8.4%, CACH -7.2%, SBL -5.6%, CEPH -4%, TKLC -3.4%... Other News: IDCC -12.6% (replaces CEO; Wells Fargo downgrade), SIMG -3.1% (receives notice of non-compliance from Nasdaq).

  • Cowen on üldse biotechi traderite jumal, TEVA up 1$. Enne laksasid Goldman ja Cowen yhel hetkel CI kommentaari, Goldie oli + ja Cowen - , CI kukkus 1$ 5 minutiga.
  • DNDN on täna sõitnud päris kenasti peale pidevat langemist. Vahepeal oli mõte kogu aeg LHV-le vastu treidides pappi teha :)
  • Paistab, et karudel tõmmatakse viimane nahk seljast.
  • Jah, viimaste päevade action turul on olnud väga hea, võrreldes sellega mida 2005.a. muidu pakkunud. Iseasi, kas seda tugevust suudetakse nädala lõpuni hoida.
  • Hilisõhtul tuli suhteliselt in-line tulemustega Symantec (SYMC), kuid tundus, et investoreid need näitajad eriti ei huvitanud. Pigem oli fookuses detsembris avalikuks saanud Veritase (VRTS) ülevõtmine ning sellega seonduvad mured. Alates tehingu teatavakstegemisest on mõlema firma suhteliselt sünkroonis liikunud aktsiad oma väärtusest kaotanud ligi veerandi ning järelturul anti käest veel 0,63%. Algselt $13,5 miljardi suurusele tehingule on veel aktsionäride nõusolekut vaja ning kogu protsess on pisut venima hakanud. Siiski avaldati lootust see käesolevas kvartalis lõpetada. Arvestades aga langenud aktsiahinda, on selge, et turuosaliste lootused kahe suure ühinemise osas just suured ei ole. Kardetakse nii Veritase jahtuvate turgude pärast, mis Symantecile võivad valusalt mõjuda, kui suurkonkurent Microsoft tungi turvaturgudele.

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