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Börsipäev 5. oktoober

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  • Rev Shark:

    Fed Remains the Biggest Obstacle to a Move Higher
    10/5/2005 8:56 AM EDT

    "In Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, bloodshed - they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love, 500 years of democracy and peace and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock."

    -- Orson Welles

    Long term buy-and-hold investors would be very happy with a calm and steady market that shut itself off from the world, eschewed volatility and slowly moved higher. But for the opportunistic trader with a shorter time frame and a more active approach, a little chaos, confusion and nasty fights are what ultimately lead to the best opportunities.

    Although many market players complain about it, volatility is something they should embrace and welcome. You can make some money in the slow-and-steady, but it is when the market thrashes around and dishes out surprises that the chance to make good money in a short time presents itself. The market needs ugly intraday reversals like we had yesterday in order to create more and better trading opportunities.

    A lot of commentators have been debating about whether end-of-the-quarter mark-ups really do occur. I feel quite strongly that they do, and that is why I was looking for a reversal. The problem is that they occur on a micro level. The stocks that tend to be marked up at the end of the quarter are the small- and mid-caps that have been the best performers during the quarter.

    The laggards are dumped, so the net effect won't always be seen in the indices. The mark-up can be seen in individual issues depending on their particular circumstances and it is tough to strip out the effect by back-testing indices.

    In any event, it certainly looked like market participants decided it was finally time to reverse the upward move we had the last couple of days, and the catalyst for the selling was some hawkish comments from the Fed. This doesn't appear to be just one speaking out of school like the "7th inning comment" from a few months ago, because two other Fed governors made similar comments about how the Fed is likely to keep raising rates to fight inflation.

    Even a pullback in oil couldn't offset the power of the jawboning. A hawkish Fed is the biggest obstacle this market faces and the fact that we have a slowing economy and the word "stagflation" hanging in the air makes things worse.

    For today we need to see if yesterday's reversal is going to pick up some steam and finally take out key support levels. We have a slightly positive open at the moment but overseas markets were weak and buyers are definitely looking skittish.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Teenuste sektori ISM 53,3 punkti oodatud 60,0 punkti asemel. Huvitav seejures asjaolu, et turud selle peale languses, tööstussektori üle ootuste tugev ISM indeks langetas samuti turge, kuna turul hakkasid levima jutud intressimäärade tõstmisest.
  • Kuidas te SCSS alla tagumist kommenteeriksite? Nagu ma aru saan avaldas firma teadaande, et ühe tarnijaga on tarneraskusi - mingi vahulaadne materjal, mida nad madratsisse topivad, jõuab kohale hilinemisega vms :) Ise pakun, et toimub tugev ülereageerimine ja niipea kui üldine turu sentiment peaks muutuma positiivseks, tasuks positsioone (juurde) võtta.
  • angelp,

    Mulle tundub SCSSi uudis pigem ühekordse asjana, kui millegi muuna. Aktsiate sellise uudise peale löögi alla sattumine on märk üldisest negatiivsest sentimentist. Samas konkurendi TPXi ümber toimuv on kindlasti ka turuosalisi tavalisest ettevaatlikumaks muutnud.

    Pikaajaliselt ostukoht, mis muud.

  • See "Take that Cody" Smithi graafiku peal tuleneb Cody Willardi eilsest sõnavõtust RealMoneys, kus ta TA-d tümitas. Shark vaidles talle eile päeval ka vastu.

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