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Börsipäev 15. november

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  • Market Strength Relies on Bulls' Patience
    11/15/2005 9:03 AM EST

    "Patience and tenacity of purpose are worth more than twice their weight of cleverness."

    -- Thomas H. Huxley

    The market paused in its upward trajectory yesterday, but it could hardly be deemed a pullback. Not only was that of little concern, but it was downright refreshing to take a brief rest. The bulls need to exercise some patience and let the short-termers, nervous nellies and profit takers shake themselves out of the market.

    The benefit of a pause in the market is that it allows stock to rotate into the hands of buyers who are more confident about the future. They will be less likely to be shaken out and should provide buying support. A consolidating market also helps shift psychology so that buyers don't feel like they are "chasing" stocks that have already made a big move. Sometimes just a pause of a day or two makes the market feel much more reasonable.

    The real measure of health in this market is the tenacity of the bulls. They are not showing any signs of tempering their enthusiasm for this market. There seems to be a very good supply of dip buyers under the surface. The market pullbacks have been extremely shallow and have not lasted long at all.

    My biggest worry about this market is that the bulls do not exercise some patience and let skepticism and uncertainty grow a bit. We need some cash on the sidelines and some doubts about the market to serve as fuel for it to keep moving higher. If the bulls can stay patient, their tenacity will continue to drive this market in the weeks ahead.

    PPI and Retail Sales numbers just hit and are helping to boost the market. Core PPI was .5% below the consensus of a .2% increase and retail sales were also well ahead of estimates. Retail growth and no inflation? Sounds like the perfect combination for the market. I'm sure we will hear from the usual assortment of bears why these stats do not reflect reality. Maybe they don't, but it is the sort of data that will prevent this market from falling off a cliff.

    We have a slightly upbeat start to the day, but overseas markets were a bit soft. Gold is trading up and oil down. Look for a continuation of yesterday's basing action to continue.

    Hommikused uudised:

    Oct. PPI rose 0.7%, (consensus 0.0%) but core-PPI fell 0.3%, much better than an expected 0.2% rise, easing inflation concerns. Oct. retail sales fell 0.1% (consensus -0.7%) while sales, ex autos, rose 0.9% (consensus +0.3%), indicative of strong consumer spending heading into the holiday shopping season.

    Deutsche Bank initiates General Electric (GE 34.40) with a Buy and $39 tgt, as they believe it long-cycle industrial and financial services assets should drive double-digit earnings growth over the next 3 years

    Bank of America downgrades Georgia-Pacific (GP 47.28) to Neutral from Buy with a $48 tgt on acquisition by Koch Industries
    JP Morgan downgrades Georgia-Pacific (GP 47.28) to Neutral from Overweight.

    Banc of America downgrades Red Hat (RHAT 24.36) to Neutral from Buy on valuation

    Deutsche Bank downgrades Sandisk (SNDK 61.35) to Sell from Hold on valuation, as the believe the co's NAND IP position is under threat and that the co doesn't have a monopoly on flash technology

    Morgan Stanley downgrades the Steel Industry to Cautious from In-Line, as they expect industry fundamentals to weaken in early 2006, with hot rolled coil prices likely to decline in 1Q06 as imports pick up, driven by price differentials between US and foreign producers

    Morgan Stanley downgrades Nucor (NUE 63.53) to Equal Weight from Overweight, citing valuation, noting that NUE's price is highly correlated with steel pricing

    An investment fund controlled by billionaire George Soros increased the size of its quarterly portfolio disclosure 44 percent on Monday showing previously undisclosed positions in Intel Corp. (INTC), Amazon.com (AMZN) and eBay Inc. (EBAY) and an increased stake in Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) as of Sept. 30. After decreasing its disclosed long positions to $1.8 billion from $2.3 billion between March 31 and June 30, Soros Fund Management LLC appears to have gone shopping, now disclosing long positions totaling $2.6 billion, according to the fund's filings with the SEC.



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